Armenia’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative, unveiled by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum in October 2023, is an ambitious regional transport proposal aimed at connecting Armenia with its neighboring countries—Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Georgia. The initiative seeks to revitalize and develop crucial infrastructure—roads, railways, pipelines, cables, and electricity lines—to facilitate the flow of goods, energy, and people across these nations, connecting the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea through easier and more efficient transportation links.
The initiative also represents a significant part of Armenia’s peace agenda in the South Caucasus amid negotiations with Azerbaijan. Armenian leaders envision these renovated and newly built routes as conduits for cultivating economic, political, and cultural ties between the countries involved, thus advancing long-term peace and stability in the region. With the potential to economically benefit the region, promote peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus, and reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia, the West should support the Crossroads for Peace plan with more robust diplomatic backing and infrastructure investment.
Decades of instability
The South Caucasus, straddling the juncture between Europe and Asia, has long been a region of strategic importance plagued by persistent instability and conflict. Most notable has been the Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which emerged in the early 1990s and led to the closure of the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Turkey borders, severely restricting Armenia’s trade and hardening political divides.
The conflict experienced a significant turning point on September 27, 2020, when Azerbaijan launched a major offensive, triggering the worst escalation since 1994. After six weeks of intense fighting, a Russia-brokered ceasefire was signed on November 9, 2020, which stipulated concessions of Armenian-controlled territory within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan blockaded Karabakh for nearly ten months starting on December 12, 2022, leading to a humanitarian crisis. On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military assault that seized full control of Karabakh and forced more than one hundred thousand ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia. The United Nations estimates that only about fifty Armenians remain in the region.
The Karabakh conflict ended on January 1, 2024, with the Karabakh authorities announcing that their unrecognized government ceased to exist. Consequently, the initial rationale behind the closure of the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Turkey borders no longer holds. Despite this, both Azerbaijan and Turkey, with the latter often aligning with the former’s policies, continue to refuse to reopen their borders with Armenia. This refusal persists even in the face of Armenia’s Crossroads for Peace initiative—a proposal that would be beneficial for regional development.
Corridors and crossroads
The Trans-Caspian Corridor, also known as the “Middle Corridor,” is an increasingly important channel for transportation and cross-border trade connecting the Central Asian states with Europe. It primarily involves the transport of goods and resources across the Caspian Sea, bridging Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan via maritime routes. From Azerbaijan, the goods are then transported through Georgia and Turkey, reaching European markets. Though trade volumes and capacity are still relatively low, the corridor holds immense strategic opportunities, as it offers a viable alternative to the traditional, longer routes through Russia or the southern maritime paths via the Suez Canal, significantly reducing transit time and avoiding geostrategic hotspots.
The Eurasian Northern Corridor, offering both road and rail options, is currently the primary route for transcontinental transport but largely traverses Russian territory. Western sanctions, investment deterrents, and financial restrictions tied to Russia’s war on Ukraine complicate this corridor’s use, and potential instability in Russia might eventually further weaken this route’s reliability. More direct routes through Central Asian and South Caucasus nations could diminish the value of the Eurasian Northern Corridor, aligning with US and European Union efforts to reduce dependencies on Russia. The development of the Trans-Caspian Corridor offers such a strategic alternative, diversifying energy supplies to Europe and enhancing trade connectivity between Asia and Europe, while bypassing Russian influence.
Armenia’s Crossroads for Peace initiative, therefore, would create a vital complementary set of routes, enhancing the strategic depth and utility of the Trans-Caspian Corridor. By developing infrastructure such as the Yeraskh-Julfa-Meghri-Horadiz railway, Armenia would offer new logistic pathways linking the Caspian region directly to the Mediterranean and Black seas through Armenian territory. This would not only shorten transit times and distances between Asia and Europe but would also introduce reliable alternative routes.
Additionally, the integration of Armenia into the Trans-Caspian Corridor could stimulate economic growth in the region by attracting foreign investment focused on logistics and infrastructure development. Armenia could become a central node in Eurasian trade, enhancing the corridor’s capacity and security. This strategic expansion would diversify the transport routes available to major trading powers and fortify the economic independence of Armenia and its neighboring countries by reducing their reliance on Russia.
Moreover, the Crossroads for Peace initiative is premised on the principles of sovereignty and jurisdiction, ensuring that infrastructure within each country’s borders remains under its control. The idea is to promote mutual respect and cooperation among its neighboring nations, facilitating equal and reciprocal management of border and customs controls. This ensures that each country would be able to safeguard its interests while promoting shared economic growth.
Obstacles in the path
However, Crossroads for Peace faces significant geopolitical hurdles. Azerbaijan has so far refused to support Armenia’s initiative, with analysts stating that neither Baku nor Ankara had been consulted. While the Armenian government should intensify its outreach on Crossroads for Peace, Armenia’s neighbors should judge the initiative in good faith on commercial viability, rather than on geopolitical grounds.
If realized, Crossroads for Peace could significantly benefit both Azerbaijan and Turkey by boosting regional trade and opening new markets. For Azerbaijan, it could provide a more direct route to European markets, while Turkey could see enhanced trade corridors that bypass less stable regions. Additionally, the project could serve as a diplomatic bridge, easing longstanding tensions and transforming a historical conflict into a hub of international commerce. For Turkey in particular, supporting this initiative could strategically position it as a peace broker in the region, which could strengthen its diplomatic relationships not only with its immediate neighbors but also across Europe and into Asia.
Baku has instead called for the development of the “Zangezur Corridor,” which would connect mainland Azerbaijan directly with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia’s southernmost Syunik province. Azerbaijan’s conception of Zangezur includes not only a railway link, but also a highway between the two parts of Azerbaijan, and demands that it would have extraterritorial status, which would require Armenia to cede control over a strip of its own territory. Crucially, Zangezur envisions opening a single transit route with Azerbaijan, whereas Crossroads for Peace aims to open several border crossings with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Armenia has firmly stated that any discussions involving the loss of sovereignty and territorial integrity or third-party control over its territory are nonnegotiable red lines. Indeed, Baku has insisted that a detachment from Russia’s Federal Security Service guard Zangezur; having just kicked Russian border guards out of the country, it’s understandable why Armenia would balk at the installation of more Russian agents on its territory.
Azerbaijan’s Zangezur plan is also detrimental to Western interests in several ways. First, it would hinder the broader Western strategic objective of stabilizing and economically developing the South Caucasus—critical for energy routes and geopolitical balance among Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. By stalling broader regional integration initiatives, Azerbaijan’s position perpetuates dependence on existing routes that run through Georgia, which face logistical and capacity hurdles, and which could be susceptible to disruptions by external geopolitical influences.
This ongoing tension and the resultant lack of comprehensive peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus allows Russia and Iran to exert their influence there. Armenia’s isolation forces it to maintain its reliance on Russia, countering Western efforts to promote democratic governance and market liberalization in the area. This situation becomes increasingly dangerous as autocratic Azerbaijan deepens its ties with Russia. Simultaneously, Iran benefits by positioning itself as a crucial partner for Armenia in energy and trade, while also providing diplomatic support by rejecting the Zangezur plan to maintain clout in the South Caucasus.
By keeping the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Turkey borders closed, Azerbaijan impedes Armenia’s economic and connectivity opportunities, limiting the scope for Western engagement and investment in the region. This keeps Armenia overly dependent on trade with Russia. Baku has long complained about Armenia’s close ties with Russia and should welcome Yerevan’s desire to open trade with Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as its commitment to leave the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.
The Crossroads for Peace initiative, therefore, offers a more promising path. By opening up the region and paving the way for a new era of mutual economic growth and cooperation in the South Caucasus, Crossroads for Peace could serve as a catalyst for regional stability and prosperity. This initiative not only counters the restrictive nature of the Zangezur plan but also aligns economic incentives with geopolitical opportunities.
How the West can help
Armenia’s Crossroads for Peace initiative deserves more robust support and engagement from Western nations. By backing Armenia’s efforts to integrate into the Trans-Caspian Corridor and promote cooperation across the South Caucasus, Western countries can help ensure that the region develops into a vibrant economic hub that is less dependent on Russia. Increased investment in infrastructure, clear diplomatic backing, and strategic partnerships, such as the recent upgrade in US-Armenia relations, can solidify the West’s commitment to promoting a more balanced geopolitical landscape in this region.
This should start with applying diplomatic pressure on Turkey and Azerbaijan to engage constructively with the initiative and entering security pacts with Armenia that help deter aggression and maintain open and secure trade routes. Subsequently, Western countries should implement targeted funding and financial incentives along with technical assistance for the construction and modernization of infrastructure in the region. Potential new trade agreements and the promotion of private sector involvement encouraging Western businesses to invest in and partner with local firms within the framework of Crossroads for Peace would also help make the initiative more viable.
Enhanced Western support for Armenia could also serve as a catalyst for broader regional cooperation and prosperity, setting a precedent for peaceful conflict resolution and cooperative development efforts. Western policymakers should therefore help integrate Crossroads for Peace into regional connectivity plans that promote open, stable, and cooperative international systems and can make Armenia a key player in the diversification of transit routes across Eurasia.
Sheila Paylan is a human rights lawyer and senior legal consultant with the United Nations. The views expressed herein are her own and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations.
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Image: Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attends the European Political Community meeting at the Blenheim Palace near Oxford, Britain July 18, 2024. REUTERS/Hollie Adams