In April 2021, three weeks after US Vice President Kamala Harris took on the assignment of leading the Biden administration’s efforts to address the root causes of migration from northern Central America, I joined her as one of seven experts offering external perspectives on the issues confronting the region. At the meeting, Harris sought out new ideas to inform the administration’s strategy on topics ranging from transparency and economic development to security and good governance. One takeaway immediately emerged: With migration from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador stemming from decades of insecurity, economic challenges, and weak governance, among other factors, there would be no fast fix for these root causes.
Since US President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris on Sunday, she has emerged as the likely Democratic nominee. So what might US foreign policy look like if she wins the presidency? For Harris, the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants, there are ample clues in her work in the Americas over the past three-and-a-half years. Her approach: Listen to a broad array of stakeholders, act, follow up, and then adjust tactics as needed. This approach can take time to implement, but it also proves adaptive to unexpected challenges.
Although the United States’ southern border was not specifically part of the portfolio handed to her, Harris’s indirect involvement—through her role in seeking to reduce migratory push factors in northern Central America—has received considerable scrutiny, especially among those who criticize the Biden administration’s approach to migration. The data at this point indicate that the Biden administration has made progress in reducing the number of migrants arriving at the US border from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador to levels last seen toward the end of the Trump administration, even as increased migration from other countries has contributed to a high level of overall encounters at the border.
At the same time, more work is clearly needed to ensure that migration levels from northern Central America do not jump back up. It is imperative that the efforts undertaken as part of the ongoing “root causes” strategy carry forward no matter who wins the US election in November. This means ensuring that local organizations have the technical and financial resources to improve opportunities for job creation and human-capital development and also to combat often-endemic corruption. These and other conditions are needed not just to dampen the drive to migrate but also to create longer-term economic security that ultimately benefits the national security of the United States and partner countries.
In the course of her work as vice president with Central America and the Caribbean . . . she has taken on tough issues that don’t lend themselves to easy, quick solutions.
In one example of her “listen, act, then follow up” approach, Harris traveled to Guatemala and Mexico in June 2021. A month later, she rolled out a five-pillar strategy that revolved around working with in-country partners to address the root causes of Central American migration, noting that “migration to our border is also a symptom of much larger issues” and admitting from the start that “progress will not be instantaneous.” She subsequently visited Honduras in January 2022. In March 2024, she welcomed Guatemala’s new president, Bernardo Arévalo, to the White House for more discussions. This approach suggests that Harris could govern in a manner where decisions are carefully thought out and where a multitude of factors are taken into account before acting.
In its three years, the five-pillar strategy has produced more than $5.2 billion in commitments from companies and organizations to invest in the region while supporting local development in areas of high emigration. And there are signs that migration from the region is now slowing. The number of Guatemalans encountered at the southwestern border last month (11,485) was the second-lowest since November 2020. The number of Hondurans (8,896) was the lowest over the same period. Overall, the proportion of migrants encountered at the US border who are citizens of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador has dropped from 49 percent (March 2021) to 18 percent (June 2024).
Still, reflecting the shift in migrant patterns, including new or growing countries of origin, the overall number of migrant encounters by border authorities remains high (130,419 in June) as compared to the last full month of the previous administration (73,994 encounters in December 2020).
Though it has been less high-profile than her Central America work, Harris has also given substantial attention to addressing the many significant challenges facing the United States’ Caribbean neighbors. As she has explained it, doing so is a US national security priority that cannot be overlooked.
In June 2023, just over a year after virtually hosting leaders of fifteen Caribbean nations, Harris became the highest-ranking US official to visit The Bahamas, where she co-hosted the US-Caribbean Leaders Meeting. That meeting—and her overall engagement—has been focused on establishing a greater US presence in the Caribbean at a time in which it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Caribbean prosperity yields benefits for the United States too. The region’s geographic proximity also means that there is a national security imperative for the United States to be more fully engaged in a partnership with the Caribbean.
In keeping with her typical approach, Harris met with Caribbean leaders first to hear their priorities before crafting a strategy. Her priorities started with climate change and the energy transition, expanded to food security, and then extended to security and arms trafficking. At that June 2023 meeting, she announced $100 million of US assistance to address these issues, including Haiti’s ongoing humanitarian crisis. (In parallel with these efforts, the Atlantic Council organized the PACC 2030 Climate Resilient Clean Energy Summit on the sidelines of her Bahamas trip.) Still, as with her Central America portfolio, substantial progress will not happen overnight.
Over the coming days and weeks, Harris will set about defining what her foreign policy might look like. In the course of her work as vice president with Central America and the Caribbean, at least, she has taken on tough issues that don’t lend themselves to easy, quick solutions. And she has followed through on implementation, adjusting tactics along the way as the situation on the ground evolves. As she seeks to become commander-in-chief at a time of deep global instability, she will have no shortage of complicated challenges to confront.
Jason Marczak is the vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Further reading
Tue, Jul 23, 2024
Biden will leave an enduring legacy of linking economic and national security
New Atlanticist By Josh Lipsky
The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law revived the idea that economic security and national security are deeply interconnected.
Wed, Jul 24, 2024
The Biden administration has changed how the US engages with developing countries
New Atlanticist By Joseph Lemoine
Under Biden, the White House has restored US backing for international organizations and helped launch new initiatives, such as the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.
Wed, Feb 28, 2024
Irregular migration starts well before the US southern border. Focus on the driving causes of the problem.
New Atlanticist By María Eugenia Brizuela de Avila
The United States must work with other countries in the Western Hemisphere to address the economic and security factors that drive migration.
Image: United States Vice President Kamala Harris makes a statement beside President Bernardo Arévalo of Guatemala in the in the Vice President’s Ceremonial Office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House Campus in Washington, DC on Monday, March 25, 2024. Credit: Ron Sachs / Pool/Sipa USA