The nation did not rally for the National Rally. In France’s second-round election on Sunday, which featured the highest voter turnout in decades, the left-wing alliance New Popular Front came in first, followed by centrist parties aligned with President Emmanuel Macron, according to projections. The far-right National Rally and its allies finished third. It was a stunning turnaround after the National Rally received the most votes just four weeks ago in European Parliament elections, an outcome that spurred Macron to call snap elections and seek “clarification” from the electorate. But with no clear parliamentary majority, France still faces a complicated path ahead. We rallied our experts to explain what’s next.
Click to jump to an expert reaction:
Gérard Araud: The anti-far-right bulwark worked, but Macron lost his bet
Rama Yade: After a sigh of relief comes instability, with 2027 still looming
Jörn Fleck: The European Union will now worry about uncertainty and paralysis in Paris
The anti-far-right bulwark worked, but Macron lost his bet
The first round of the French parliamentary elections was seen as a success for the National Rally. The far-right party seemed on its way to get a majority in the French National Assembly that would have allowed it to govern the country with the support of some conservatives.
But the first surprise was the number of candidates—more than two hundred—from either the left or the center who announced before the second round that they were stepping aside in favor of another centrist or leftist to prevent the far right from winning in their constituency. The question was whether the voters would follow their call. Pollsters were doubtful. Apparently, they were wrong.
The second round is indeed a total surprise. The anti-far-right bulwark has worked. Not only is the leftist coalition, New Popular Front, the first-place party in the National Assembly, but the Macron-aligned party is the second, and the National Rally is only the third. France has clearly said “Non” to the prospect of a far-right government.
Having said that, there is no potential majority in the new parliament, which is divided in three unequal blocs. The far-left leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has already claimed that the New Popular Front should get the power and fully implement its program, while a centrist representative has answered that the National Assembly composition means compromises are unavoidable.
The coming weeks will indeed be a test to determine whether the left and the center are able to cooperate. This would probably entail a break-up of the New Popular Front, which has shown its fragility during the electoral campaign between the far-left La France Insoumise party and the center-left Socialist party.
France is entering a long crisis full of uncertainties and political instability. Macron has lost his bet for clarification from the electorate. He is weakened, but resignation and realism are not his strong points.
—Gérard Araud is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center and a former ambassador of France to the United States.
After a sigh of relief comes instability, with 2027 still looming
There are three key observations to draw from the second round of the French legislative election:
- The National Rally did not win; it only came in third: The “republican front” that was said to be dead worked perfectly.
- The left, with the New Popular Front, is in the lead, even though no poll had predicted it.
- No party won an absolute majority.
France is entering an era of coalition politics, a practice to which the country is not accustomed. Macron, who was looking for clarification, did not get it. The relative majority he had in 2022 has disappeared, and his party is now in the minority in the National Assembly. He will have to choose a prime minister who will appoint a government whose first task will be to be strong enough to avoid falling prey to a no-confidence vote. The center of gravity of French politics will shift from the executive to parliament. There is a possibility of permanent instability if the opposition parties unite.
Within the victorious left, the far left of Mélenchon came out ahead of the other left-wing parties. As of Sunday evening, we can already sense little agreement on who should lead the government. Although many of their members of parliament have been elected thanks to the left, some within Macron’s party are beginning to hope that they can build a coalition of the minorities that includes politicians from the right and the left. In the meantime current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced, in accordance with the logic of the institutions, that he will resign Monday morning—while saying he is available to manage current affairs during the upcoming Olympic Games.
Great relief dominates in the country, which had come to the brink of an abyss. But the aftermath will be difficult. The ten million French citizens who voted for Marine Le Pen’s party have not disappeared. The National Rally has become the leading opposition force, and it will now focus on embodying the alternative in the only battle that is worth fighting in France, the 2027 presidential election. As the results came in on Sunday night Le Pen announced, “Our victory has only been delayed.” The new French government has less than three years to succeed and refute this prediction.
—Rama Yade is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center and a senior fellow with the Europe Center. She was the first woman of African descent to become a member of the French cabinet, serving as France’s deputy minister of foreign affairs and human rights, deputy minister of sports, and ambassador to the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) under French President Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012).
The European Union will now worry about uncertainty and paralysis in Paris
Europe is collectively breathing a sigh of relief at the outcome of the second round of the French parliamentary elections. The worst-case outcome for the European Union—that of a majority for the National Rally, which could have wreaked budgetary and procedural havoc on France’s European Union (EU) policies from behind the scenes—has not come to pass. But even so, one main takeaway already for European partners will be uncertainty, paralysis, and a self-consumed political leadership in Paris. There are no clear winners, even if the leftist coalition of the New Popular Front claimed first place by surprise and Macron’s party edged out a second place over the populist, anti-EU nationalists of the National Rally in third.
A hung parliament and a diverse, if not unstable, left-wing coalition as the improbable election winner will still weaken France’s position in Europe—and Europe itself. It will likely mean at least a year of political gridlock in Paris—and lots of “it’s complicated” for the EU’s second-largest member in Brussels’s decision-making. France has no recent tradition of coalition or technical expert governments. While on paper and in media speculation, a coalition of the anti-National Rally forces is possible, in practice this will be hard to achieve. The hard left of France Unbowed (LFI) under its firebrand leader Mélenchon dominates the New Popular Front and has already staked out maximalist demands vis-à-vis Macron. LFI’s election platform of domestic reform reversals, exits from trade agreements, and a leftist reform of the EU won’t give anyone in Brussels or capitals around the EU much relief. Center-left forces in the New Popular Front alone won’t bring enough votes and heft to form a stable centrist coalition with Macron’s “Ensemble” and the center-right Republicans, if the latter are even reliable partners for such a coalition.
Whatever the exact domestic dynamics, Paris will likely be largely consumed by its own affairs for the foreseeable future. At the same time, even if the worst outcome has been averted, Macron’s credibility and political capital have been sapped in the eyes of Europe’s leaders by his brinkmanship and unforced strategic mistake of calling the snap elections in the first place. That will weaken an important voice for forward-leaning, more ambitious EU positions and postures, from internal reform to defense cooperation, support for Ukraine, and a tougher course on China.
—Jörn Fleck is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
Coalition building will be messy, but expect some continuity on security and defense issues
Current predictions show that a far-right dominated scenario is out of the picture, even if the verdict is still not in across all of the 577 French districts. Given the absence of any clear-cut majority between the three groups dominating the second round—the left, the presidential party, and the far right—the question is: On what terms will Macron designate the prime minister to form a government? Given that the Fifth Republic institutional set-up is built around a bipartisan system, in the current deadlock, coalition building seems to be the way forward. However, because there is no such customary practice in France, unlike in other European democracies, this could prove arduous. Macron is unable to call another parliamentary election for a year, therefore the governability of France could be a major issue.
On foreign and defense policy, it’s likely that Macron will attempt to carve out specific prerogatives for the executive, provided by the constitution or by custom, as opposed to economic or internal affairs, on which the parliament will likely weigh in more strongly.
It will be important to follow how the left clarifies its hastily assembled program, as the final election count will influence the internal equilibrium within the bloc. No specific candidate has been designated by the left bloc for the prime minister role yet. If the New Popular Front is confirmed as the most powerful group, it would be the driving force in coalescing others around a project. So far, the recently unveiled program provides very little information on defense issues, including on NATO. Nevertheless, the left-wing group’s platform calls for “unfailing defense of the Ukrainian people’s sovereignty and freedom, including the integrity of Ukraine’s borders, through the necessary arms transfers” and taking the necessary steps to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin will “fail in his war of aggression.”
France has rejected once again the prospect of the far right in power, but this legislative election will likely have repercussions beyond those regarding the Fifth Republic’s governance model and party system. The results might also affect whether Macron’s party has a future beyond 2027.
—Léonie Allard is a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, previously serving at the French Ministry of Armed Forces.
French recognition of a Palestinian state may be more likely now, but don’t expect much change in Middle East policy
As of Sunday evening, France’s left-wing coalition will represent the biggest bloc in the new National Assembly. But in the absence of an absolute majority, compromises will be unavoidable to form a stable government.
Foreign policy had not been a major issue of the three-week campaign, but the program of the left coalition and its leaders did specify some aspects of their Middle East policy, especially on Gaza and Lebanon. In both cases, there is actually no major disagreement between the left and Macron’s centrist Ensemble party.
The left coalition calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, but the outgoing government has already called for one for several months now. On Lebanon and the looming fears of a new conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the French left were vague and merely promised to empower the Lebanese Armed Forces. This is again not a point of friction with the policy led by Macron. That is reassuring. Given the important role Paris plays, in close coordination with Washington, in preventing the opening of a new front between Israel and Hezbollah, continuity between French governments would be good news.
Perhaps the only major change would be a symbolic one: The left coalition has been very vocal in demanding the recognition of a Palestinian state, following the example of several other European governments in the past months. Macron himself contemplated the idea and said that doing so “is not a taboo for France.” Apart from irritating the current Israeli government, such a decision would have no major consequence on the ground (which might be one reason why Macron would be open to it in a coalition government with left parties). But beyond this, one should not expect a major shift in French policy toward the Middle East.
—Jean-Loup Samaan is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.
Further reading
Mon, Jul 1, 2024
Will Macron be the undoing of European centrist politics?
New Atlanticist By Jörn Fleck
Results from the first round of the French snap parliamentary elections show that the president's previously successful strategy of scaring voters about the potential of the right and left is falling flat.
Thu, Jul 4, 2024
What do Biden, Macron, and Sunak have in common? They brought it on themselves.
Inflection Points Today By Frederick Kempe
US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are suffering from self-inflicted wounds that are likely to have long-term political and economic consequences.
Wed, Jul 3, 2024
How are markets reacting to the French snap election?
Econographics By Sophia Busch, Charles Lichfield
The results of the first round of the French snap election led to diverging reactions in bond yields and stock prices.
Image: Demonstrators celebrate during the New Popular Front’s election night after announcing the voting primary results for 2nd tour of the French legislative elections, in Paris on July 7, 2024. Photo by Firas Abdullah/ABACAPRESS.COM