These steps are encouraging and indicate welcome Western awareness of the repression that continues to define the political climate in today’s Belarus. Nevertheless, there is still a sense that not nearly enough is being done by the international community to challenge the impunity enjoyed by Lukashenka and members of his regime.

These concerns were amplified recently when the largest prisoner swap between the Kremlin and the West since the Cold War went ahead without featuring any Belarusian political prisoners. Lukashenka himself was closely involved in the complex negotiations behind the exchange. The Belarusian dictator agreed to free German national Rico Krieger, who was being held in Minsk on terrorism charges, as part of efforts to convince the German government to release Russian secret service assassin Vadim Krasikov.

Many have questioned why prominent Belarusian pro-democracy leader Maria Kalesnikava, who had previously lived for many years in Germany, was not also freed as part of the trade. Kalesnikava was jailed amid nationwide protests following Lukashenka’s rigged 2020 election. One of the figureheads of the anti-Lukashenka protest movement, she has reportedly been suffering from deteriorating health for the past year and a half. Similar questions were also asked regarding fellow political prisoners Ales Bialiatski, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022, and Ihar Losik, a prominent blogger and journalist for RFE/RL’s Belarus Service.

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Four years since the sham ballot that sparked the biggest protests of Lukashenka’s three-decade reign, he appears more comfortable than ever with the idea of holding large numbers of political prisoners as hostages. This must change. With no regime-linked Belarusians in Western custody who are anything like as valuable as Krasikov was to Putin, other approaches are clearly needed to increase the pressure on Lukashenka and convince him to release political prisoners.

Economic measures can be used to target the largely state-controlled Belarusian economy, but this is more likely to have an impact as part of a long-term strategy. One alternative approach would be to engage third parties such as China, which has considerable influence in Minsk. Earlier diplomatic efforts succeeded in securing the release of US citizen Vital Shkliarau, indicating that negotiations of this nature can yield results.

Finding the right formula to keep up the pressure on individual members of the Lukashenka regime is crucial. At present, comparatively few of those involved in repressive measures are subject to international sanctions. For example, I was recently sentenced in absentia by a Belarusian court to ten years in prison alongside nineteen other independent Belarusian analysts and journalists. The judge in our case has a history of handing down lengthy sentences to prominent opposition figures, but has yet to be sanctioned.

During the past four years, only 261 Belarusians have been placed on the EU sanctions list. While the work of sanctions teams is commendable, their capacity is limited. Past experience has also demonstrated how sanctions can be sabotaged, as was the case in 2020 when Cyprus was accused of blocking the introduction of new restrictions against Belarus. There is also room to improve cooperation between Western partners, with a view to developing a more unified approach to sanctions.

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Strikingly, the quantity of Belarusians currently facing Western sanctions is far less the almost 1,400 political prisoners in the country’s prisons. According to human rights groups, tens of thousands of Belarusians in total have been detained in recent years for political reasons. Behind these arrests and prosecutions stands an army of enablers including government officials, security personnel, and judges. The vast majority of these people have yet to be held accountable by the international community for their role in the repressive policies of the Belarusian authorities.

There are some indications that Western policymakers are looking to broaden the scope of sanctions and increase individual accountability. However, while the recent round of sanctions included new measures targeting officials responsible for regime propaganda, other representatives of the Belarusian state media received international accreditation to cover the Olympics in Paris.

The West already has powerful tools at its disposal that can realistically make Belarusian officials consider the consequences of their actions. Standard personal sanctions such as travel bans and asset freezes go far beyond mere symbolism and are capable of creating problems that can have far-reaching practical implications in everyday life. However, more leverage is required in order to maintain the pressure on the regime and on the individuals responsible for specific abuses.

Looking ahead, the West needs to make the issue of political prisoners far more uncomfortable for the entire Lukashenka regime. There is no single solution to this problem; instead, a range of options should be explored including broad economic restrictions, personal sanctions, and diplomatic pressure. Crucially, sanctions should be applied to thousands of officials rather than just a few hundred. The end goal must be to significantly raise the costs of the repressive policies pursued by Lukashenka and all those who enable his regime.

Hanna Liubakova is a journalist from Belarus and nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Aug 13, 2024

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive proves surprise is still possible in modern war

By Mykola Bielieskov

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has succeeded in demonstrating that surprise is still possible despite the increased transparency of the modern battlefield, writes Mykola Bielieskov.

Conflict Defense Policy

UkraineAlert Aug 11, 2024

Ukraine’s invasion of Russia is erasing Vladimir Putin’s last red lines

By Peter Dickinson

Ukraine’s invasion of Russia has erased the last of Vladimir Putin’s red lines and made a complete mockery of the West’s frequently voiced escalation fears, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Defense Policy

UkraineAlert Aug 8, 2024

Ukraine continues to expand drone bombing campaign inside Russia

By Marcel Plichta

Ukraine’s long-range drone bombing campaign targeting military and industrial sites inside Russia has had a dramatic series of successes over the last few weeks, writes Marcel Plichta.

Conflict Defense Technologies

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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The post Belarus’s political prisoners must not be forgotten appeared first on Atlantic Council.

An initiative led by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center in partnership with the US Department of State continues to focus on facilitating greater constructive exchange among multisectoral thought leaders and government leaders as they work to implement commitments made at the ninth Summit of the Americas. This readout was informed by a private, information-gathering roundtable and several one-on-one conversations with leading experts in the digital space.

Executive summary

At the ninth Summit of the Americas, regional leaders agreed on the adoption of a Regional Agenda for Digital Transformation that reaffirmed the need for a dynamic and resilient digital ecosystem that promotes digital inclusion for all peoples. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the digital divide globally, but these gaps were shown to be deeper in developing countries, disproportionately affecting women, children, persons with disabilities, and other vulnerable and/or marginalized individuals. Through this agenda, inclusive workforce development remains a key theme as an avenue to help bridge the digital divide and skills gap across the Americas.

As part of the Atlantic Council’s consultative process, thought leaders and practitioners evaluated progress made in the implementation of the Regional Agenda for Digital Transformation agreed on at the Summit of Americas, resulting in three concrete recommendations: (1) leverage regional alliances and intraregional cooperation mechanisms to accelerate implementation of the agenda; (2) strengthen public-private partnerships and multisectoral coordination to ensure adequate financing for tailored capacity-building programs, the expansion of digital infrastructure, and internet access; and (3) prioritize the involvement of local youth groups and civil society organizations, given their on-the-ground knowledge and role as critical indicators of implementation.

Recommendations for advancing digitalization and workforce development in the Americas:

Report

May 31, 2024

PACC 2030 objectives: The road to implementation

By Wazim Mowla, Charlene Aguilera

The Atlantic Council organized a PACC 2030 Working Group and worked closely with governments, the business community, and civil society organizations to support the implementation of PACC 2030’s objectives.

Caribbean Climate Change & Climate Action

Report

Apr 16, 2024

Advancing health and resilience policies in Latin America and the Caribbean

By Isabel Chiriboga, Martin Cassinelli, Diego Area

During an off-the-record private roundtable, thought leaders and practitioners from across the Americas discussed how to further enhance access to and finance for health services and products in the region.

Coronavirus Latin America

Summit of the Americas

Amid global uncertainties and new challenges, the ninth Summit of the Americas is a renewed opportunity to bring about hemispheric cooperation and consensus to reach regional prosperity and security.

Staff

Isabel Chiriboga

Assistant Director

Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center

Colombia Corruption

Staff

Maite Gonzalez Latorre

Program Assistant

Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center

Americas Education

Staff

Diego Area

Deputy Director, Strategic Development

Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center

Crisis Management Democratic Transitions

The Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center broadens understanding of regional transformations and delivers constructive, results-oriented solutions to inform how the public and private sectors can advance hemispheric prosperity.

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The post The future of digital transformation and workforce development in Latin America and the Caribbean appeared first on Atlantic Council.

In the Call to Action, the secretary-general makes clear that governments and policymakers must protect and care for the lives and livelihoods of frontline communities, protect workers, advance the evidence base to drive innovative resilience solutions, and limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

This clear recognition from the Office of the Secretary-General is an important moment for us all. Extreme heat is often underestimated and ignored, but its impacts are unavoidable. The planet is heating up faster than we thought. We are outside scientific model predictions and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and devastating. 

Rising heat affects our major critical systems—such as water, energy, food, transportation, and communications. It also feeds mega droughts, wildfires, and storms, creating cascading and compounding crises. It’s a global crisis. But we are not ready for any of it. We’re sleepwalking.

In my work as global chief heat officer and first chief heat officer for the city of Athens, I have worked directly with cities and have seen the impacts of heat firsthand. Cities are heating up at twice the rate of the global average. At 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, sixty-seven cities will experience 150 or more days per year of temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit). At 2 degrees Celsius, the number jumps to ninety-four cities. At just under 3 degrees Celsius of global warming, it soars to 197 cities.  

Policies to address extreme heat so far remain scattered, disjointed, and underfunded. But the rising temperatures mark a global crisis with local impacts. That’s why the global focus of the UN’s Call to Action is so crucial. Increasingly, our world is facing challenges that go beyond the capacity and limited mandate of single nation states. We’re facing crises, like climate change, that need international cooperation to support and facilitate equitable, multilevel, science-based decision making and solutions. The UN is the only legitimate multilateral governance structure able to address issues that need global mobilization and localized solutions. As cities take on climate change, they need support at every level.  

In 2022, globally, humanity spent a little over one trillion dollars on adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change. For comparison, the world spent $11.7 trillion on COVID-19 emergency fiscal measures in 2020 alone. As temperatures rise, this funding gap is a dangerous threat. And there is another issue that needs to be urgently addressed: In 2022, about one trillion dollars went to financing emissions mitigation, while only one hundred billion dollars went to adaptation and resilience-building initiatives. We urgently need both climate adaptation and resilience financing. 

The UN’s Call to Action is an important milestone for climate resilience, but it is also only the beginning. As the document explains, the world urgently needs a Global Action Strategy to “mobilize governments, policy makers, and all stakeholders to act, prevent, and reduce heat risk.” A dedicated trust fund for urban heat resilience initiatives is also needed, because cities are on the frontlines of extreme heat, and they are where more than half of the world’s population lives—a share that is expected to rise to seven-in-ten people by midcentury. Finally, more dedicated heat champions, like the community of chief heat officers established by the Arsht-Rock Resilience Center, with heat resilience departments that can articulate the challenges and co-create the best solutions are needed. These champions are critical to ensuring that the dangers of—and the solutions to—extreme heat are understood widely.

Each of these essential efforts, as well as others, requires building an international consensus around the scope of the problem and its solutions. Here, the UN’s Call to Action on Extreme Heat can help shape conversations in positive directions at upcoming conferences such as Climate Week NYC and this year’s UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, also known as COP29. Heat resilience must be at the top of the agenda at these and other international meetings, and work is needed at every level to ensure that cities have the support and finances they need to scale solutions.

As the Call to Action makes clear, everyone is at risk from extreme heat, and we must enable resilience at the local and international level, taking “bold decisions to change the way we live to avoid an even more scorched Earth in the future.” 

Eleni Myrivili is the world’s first global chief heat officer, a role jointly created and appointed by the Atlantic Council’s Arsht-Rock Resilience Center and the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat).

The post The world is sleepwalking into an era of extreme heat. The UN just issued a wake-up call.  appeared first on Atlantic Council.

News of my ten-year sentence provoked very conflicting emotions. While many colleagues congratulated me on what they saw as tacit recognition of my efforts in support of a democratic Belarus, I have struggled to find the right words when explaining to my Belarusian relatives that we may never meet again.

The charges against me and my co-defendants did not come as a complete surprise, of course. Nevertheless, at a time when the struggle for Belarusian democracy is no longer in the international spotlight, it is important to reflect on how we arrived at this point.

Back in the summer of 2020, there were unmistakable signs of growing political engagement throughout Belarusian society. More and more ordinary people were volunteering to join the campaigns of opposition candidates in the country’s upcoming presidential election, or simply expressing their political opinions. Although I was studying outside the country at the time, I also made a conscious decision to continue writing about the political situation in my homeland.

When Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka was then proclaimed the winner of a deeply flawed presidential ballot in August 2020, I was among the thousands of journalists, activists, and academics to speak up against election fraud and condemn the violent Kremlin-backed crackdown that followed. Like me, some had already left Belarus to advance their careers abroad. Others were forced to flee as the regime sought to silence domestic dissent. This large community of exiled Belarusians has continued its open criticism of the Lukashenka regime.

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Lukashenka was able to suppress the 2020 protest movement in Belarus thanks to Russian support. Ever since, he has remained heavily dependent on Moscow for his political survival. In exchange for this backing, he has allowed the Kremlin to expand its influence over Belarus in a process that some have likened to a creeping annexation. Lukashenka has also agreed to play the role of junior partner in Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s hybrid war against the West.

In February 2022, Lukashenka allowed Putin to use Belarus as a base for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. During the first month of the invasion, the country served as a gateway for the Russian march on Kyiv, which the Kremlin hoped would be the decisive offensive of the war. Russia has since used Belarus as a training ground for troops and as a launch pad to bomb targets across Ukraine.

In 2023, Putin announced the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus, further involving the country in the confrontation between Russia and the West. Moscow is also accused of funneling migrants through Belarus to the border with the EU as part of its efforts to weaponize illegal immigration.

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While tensions with the West have escalated, the domestic situation in Belarus has continued to deteriorate. Approximately one thousand four hundred people remain in prison on politically motivated charges, while up to six hundred thousand Belarusians are believed to have fled the country, representing more than five percent of the overall population.

In recent years, the Lukashenka regime has signaled its intention to target critics who have left the country. In January 2023, five administrators of a Telegram channel run by exiled Belarusians were each sentenced in absentia to twelve years. Since then, several more opposition politicians and activists have been convicted in the same fashion on charges of attempting to seize power, threatening national security, and organizing extremist groups.

On January 24, 2024, I woke up to news that I also faced similar charges along with nineteen colleagues. While we were arbitrarily grouped together as analysts of Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, many of us had never actually met each other. Our trial started in May. None of us were able to get in touch with assigned lawyers, receive court materials, or join the hearings online. Instead, the case proceeded amid an almost complete information blackout until we learned of our guilty verdicts and prison sentences on July 1.

When I received confirmation of my sentence, I was struck by an overwhelming sense of anger at the injustice and absurdity of the entire process. At the same time, I have also been filled with gratitude for the solidarity expressed by international organizations and colleagues.

Our trial is the latest indication of the increasingly authoritarian political climate in today’s Belarus. In my opinion, this attempt to punish critical voices located outside the country and beyond the reach of the Belarusian authorities reflects the insecurities of a man who knows he has long since lost any remaining legitimacy as ruler of the country. Lukashenka’s growing desperation makes him an even greater threat to Belarusians, and means that he is also significantly more dangerous internationally as an ally of the Kremlin.

Those inside Belarus are well aware of the Orwellian reality they must deal with on a daily basis. They know that any public opposition to the regime will likely have grave consequences. In contrast, Belarusians living abroad still have the opportunity to voice our political opinions and share information about the horrors unfolding in our homeland. It is vital we continue to do so. The fact that Lukashenka is now attempting to intimidate us confirms that our efforts are not in vain.

Alesia Rudnik is a PhD Fellow at Karlstad University in Sweden and director of Belarusian think tank The Center for New Ideas.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Jun 4, 2024

Vladimir Putin just tacitly admitted Crimea is not really part of Russia

By Peter Dickinson

Russia claims to have annexed five Ukrainian provinces but refuses to extend security red lines to these regions. This highlights the pragmatic political realities behind Putin’s talk of historic conquests, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Disinformation

UkraineAlert May 30, 2024

If the West wants a sustainable peace it must commit to Ukrainian victory

By Hanna Hopko, Andrius Kubilius

Since 2022, Western policies of escalation management have failed to appease Putin and have only emboldened the Kremlin. If the West wants peace, it must help Ukraine win, write Hanna Hopko and Andrius Kubilius.

Civil Society Conflict

UkraineAlert Jun 12, 2024

Ukraine is making the Russian occupation of Crimea untenable

By Olivia Yanchik

Ukraine’s growing air strike capabilities are decimating Russian air defenses in Crimea and making the occupation of the peninsula increasingly untenable, writes Olivia Yanchik.

Conflict Defense Technologies

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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The post I was sentenced to ten years in absentia for highlighting Belarus’s descent into dictatorship appeared first on Atlantic Council.

The 2003 US-led invasion, which led to the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein, presented an opportunity to rebuild Iraq’s educational system. While there were initial efforts to revitalize schools and universities, the ongoing violence and political instability hindered sustained progress. Corruption, sectarian strife, and the absence of coherent education policies exacerbated the challenges. The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) severely disrupted the educational system in areas under its control. Despite these hurdles, there were pockets of progress, particularly in the autonomous Kurdistan region, which began to chart its course for educational reform.

Today, with 60 percent of Iraqis under the age of twenty-five, the nation’s education system is at a critical juncture. The young population represents both a tremendous opportunity and a daunting challenge. High unemployment rates and inadequate educational facilities threaten to undermine the potential of youth contributing to the country’s rebuilding efforts. The lack of investment in modern educational infrastructure and the disconnect between educational outcomes and labor-market needs are stark.

For instance, according to a 2021 IREX report, only 22 percent of university graduates find jobs in their field of study within three months of graduating. This highlights the critical need for a more responsive education system that meets the market’s needs. According to the World Bank, 2 million Iraqi children are deprived of education, presenting a significant challenge for their future prospects. In addition, literacy rates remain alarmingly low, especially among women.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has recognized the urgency of addressing these issues. The cabinet has developed Vision 2030, which prioritizes enhancing and adapting education to support economic diversification. This unprecedented framework aims to align Kurdistan’s educational system with international standards, while fostering a workforce capable of driving economic growth across sectors. A key element of this vision is establishing the Kurdistan Accrediting Association for Education (KAAE), a national accreditation body designed to bridge the educational gap and propel the region into the twenty-first century.

Because standardization can serve as leverage for reform, the KAAE seeks to establish standards to ensure that educational institutions in Kurdistan and Iraq meet rigorous quality-assurance requirements. By promoting best practices and fostering a culture of transparency, accountability, and continuous improvement, the KAAE, as a twelve/fifteen-year project, aims to support the government in establishing sound policies for educational quality, making it more relevant to the needs of the economy and society. This initiative is crucial for modernizing Kurdistan’s education system and enabling it to catch up with global advancements, as it is for Iraq and the broader region when used as a model.

Strategic investment in education

Effective implementation of the KAAE’s quality-assurance standards necessitates leveraging the expertise and experience of the international community in building the capacity of academic institutions. The United States and Iraq have a framework agreement that identifies education as a cornerstone of bilateral relations as part of the broader cultural cooperation between the two countries. It is now time to translate this agreement into action. Strengthening this partnership can have far-reaching reverberations beyond education, fostering economic development, political stability, and social cohesion. While the United States has invested significantly in Iraq’s reconstruction, this has been disproportionately allocated to the security sector. According to the Military Times, the United States has spent nearly $2 trillion on military operations in Iraq. Even a fraction of this amount, 1 percent, would have a transformational impact if directed toward educational initiatives.

Investing in Iraq’s education system offers a unique opportunity for the United States to not only support a key ally but also address the root causes of instability in the region. The United States can help build the foundation for a stable and prosperous Iraq by directing resources toward educational reform. This investment would both strengthen US public diplomacy and promote the values of democracy and human rights, which are integral to long-term peace and security. Such support includes establishing partnerships between US schools and universities and their Iraqi counterparts to implement the quality-assurance standards the KAAE sets. These partnerships could focus on building capacity and mentorship, embedding student-centered learning in curricula, and creating continuous assessment and evaluation strategies. Because the Kurdistan region has already established the KAAE, this could serve as a pilot model for Iraq as a whole, with the goal of replicating the body in other parts of Iraq.

Countries like Singapore and South Korea provide valuable lessons in how education can drive national development. Both nations have transformed their economies through substantial investments in education, focusing on skills development and innovation. For example, South Korea’s emphasis on technology and vocational training has made it a global industry leader. Similarly, Singapore’s education system, known for its rigor and focus on STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), has produced a highly skilled workforce that drives the country’s ongoing economic success.

By supporting similar models in Iraq, the United States can help foster an education system that not only equips young Iraqis with the skills and qualifications the local market and economy need, both today and in the long term, but also cultivates critical thinking and innovation. This approach aligns with the US strategy of promoting regional stability through economic development and education.

The role of education in peace and security

Enhancing education in Iraq is not just about economic growth; it is a crucial element of peacebuilding. Education fosters understanding, tolerance, and critical thinking, which are essential for mitigating conflict and promoting social cohesion. A well-educated populace is better equipped to participate in democratic processes and contribute to the nation’s development. By investing in education, Iraq can build a more inclusive society in which young people are empowered to contribute positively to their communities.

For Iraq, education is more than a policy priority; it is a pathway to peace and prosperity. The United States can play a critical role in achieving such prosperity. By leveraging initiatives like the KAAE and drawing on successful global models, Iraq can transform its education system, paving the way for a brighter future. This investment is not just about building schools; it is about building a nation with a capable and empowered citizenry.

The United States and the international community can seize this opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to a stable and prosperous Iraq, promoting a region where education empowers young people as agents of positive change.

Dr. Honar Issa is the secretary of the Board of Trustees at the American University of Kurdistan (AUK). He also serves as chair of the Middle East Peace and Security Forum.

The post Investing in Iraq’s education will contribute to its revival appeared first on Atlantic Council.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has proposed new federal regulations to protect workers. When the heat index reaches or exceeds 80 degrees Fahrenheit, employers would be required to monitor workers and provide water and rest areas. At 90 degrees Fahrenheit, more protections kick in, including mandatory fifteen-minute rest breaks every two hours and monitoring employees for signs of heat-related illnesses.

Heat-related illnesses have been recognized as occupational hazards for a decade, with an estimated 2,300 workers in the United States dying from extreme heat exposure last year alone. However, this number is likely an undercount and does not capture the many more who suffered nonlethal or chronic heat-related illnesses, as well as workers who injured themselves on the job due to the heat. For instance, researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles found that workers in California are up to 9 percent more likely to suffer a workplace injury on days with temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit than on days that are between 50 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit. This is a problem that will only get worse. The summer is only a few weeks underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and already more than one hundred million US residents have been exposed to extreme heat.

What comes next?

Despite the need for action, OSHA’s proposal will have significant opponents. Industry groups are gearing up for battle, arguing that the rule will be both administratively cumbersome and costly. This is a sentiment that some political leaders have already embraced. Earlier this year, both Florida and Texas enacted state-wide bans to prevent localities from instituting their own worker-protection ordinances. Both state governments are unlikely to accept OSHA’s proposal without protest. In fact, despite the persistent threat of extreme heat, only five states have extreme heat worker protections: California, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.  

The argument that extreme heat worker protections will come at a cost often ignores the very real cost of maintaining the status quo under dangerously high temperatures. Aside from the price that workers pay with their health, extreme heat in the workplace has significant economic impacts, from lost labor productivity to healthcare costs. The high and growing price of extreme heat on US residents’ lives and livelihoods illustrates not only that this new rule is necessary, but also that, on its own, it is not enough.

Since 2021, the Biden administration has worked to reestablish the role of the United States as a leader in the fight against climate change, both domestically and abroad. This new rule could help cement the United States’ leadership role on climate—but only if it is properly enforced and expanded upon. For the rule to be effective, the administration should continue significantly utilizing OSHA’s National Emphasis Program for Outdoor and Indoor Heat-Related Hazards, which gives it latitude to direct resources toward both employer education on heat safety protocols and inspections that will better ensure compliance.

The Biden administration should also leverage existing funds to ensure that workers remain safe even when they head home for the day. As temperatures rise across the United States and the world, workplace regulations alone will not be enough to adequately protect workers. Federal agencies should incentivize states to direct Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) funding toward cooling assistance in vulnerable households, and lawmakers should ensure that LIHEAP is funded adequately to cover energy needs during both the summer and winter months. Currently, only approximately 5 percent of LIHEAP’s four billion dollars in funding goes to cooling assistance (heating receives ten times as much), despite the accelerating demand for relief from high nighttime temperatures that place a significant burden on the human body, and which can lead to heat exhaustion while on the job.  

Ultimately however, this issue cannot be solved at the federal level alone. It also requires efforts at the state and local level to ensure that the most vulnerable communities and individuals are being identified and solutions tailored to local contexts are being implemented. The appointment of a Chief Heat Officer (CHO), at the city, county, or state level, is one tool that can address the local challenges of extreme heat. Local governments such as Miami-Dade County, Phoenix, and Los Angeles have already taken this approach. Local climate leaders—like CHOs—are well positioned to work closely with their communities to tailor solutions to meet their specific needs and to create a unified response to build resilience to extreme heat both during the workday and off the clock.

Catherine Wallace is the associate director of strategic partnerships and advocacy for the extreme heat resilience pillar of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht–Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock).

Owen Gow is the deputy director for the extreme heat resilience pillar at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht–Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock).

The post Feeling the heat? Biden’s proposed protections for workers are a welcome start. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Unfortunately, this is a familiar scene for the region, which routinely battles the effects of extreme weather events and climate change. Hurricane Beryl once again spotlights why focusing on the mitigation of climate change, through such methods as cutting carbon emissions, alone is insufficient. Caribbean countries must prioritize climate adaptation as the primary mechanism to withstand hurricanes and other baked-in effects of climate change.

Climate adaptation is the answer to these extreme weather events, but it requires significant investment that governments in the Caribbean cannot afford. International support, including private finance, is needed. In five months, the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties, also known as COP29, will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. It has been dubbed the “finance COP,” and there governments and the private sector should come together and show the commercial utility of prioritizing climate adaptation. Doing so can unlock new financing and create project pipelines that are commercially attractive to global investors.

The Caribbean is often categorized as the world’s most vulnerable region to climate change. Seventy percent of the region’s population lives or works on the coast, meaning that storm surges from hurricanes affect businesses, lifestyles, and government operations. Hurricanes and strong storms also bring the tourism industry to a halt, disproportionately affecting the region’s tourism-dependent economies and severely slowing economic growth. Hurricane Maria in 2017 cost Dominica an estimated 225 percent of its gross domestic product, while Hurricane Irma in the same year cost Antigua and Barbuda more than $136 million in damages, of which the tourism industry represented 44 percent.

Strong storms damage critical infrastructure. Downed power lines cause widespread power outages, while flooded roads and bridges can prevent rescue operations. Already, Hurricane Beryl has caused power outages in Saint Lucia, and homes in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have lost their roofs. And stronger storms lead to longer recovery periods, which can increase governments’ public debt as they borrow at high interest rates from multilateral institutions to rebuild after the storm has passed. Six years after Hurricane Maria, for example, citizens in Dominica are still rebuilding.

Withstanding strong storms and other effects of climate change requires new climate adaptation projects. For hurricanes with high wind speeds (such as Beryl, which sustained wind speeds of 150 mph at its peak), it is necessary to retrofit infrastructure to be resilient. To achieve this, governments need to require building codes for new homes and infrastructure that ensure sufficient resilience across structures. To brace for storm surges, governments need to move water and energy infrastructure underground where possible to avoid damage. New sea walls and flood protection systems also need to be built.

In all, the region needs more than $100 billion dollars in investment to meet its climate adaptation goals, but it has only been approved for less than one billion dollars from various climate funds. Governments are often left to fend for themselves, taking high-interest loans (due to the classification of many Caribbean nations as middle- and high-income economies by the World Bank) since they often do not qualify for concessional financing. At the same time, governments have borne the brunt of the responsibility because these types of climate adaptation projects are not always attractive to the private sector. Retrofitting infrastructure and other climate adaptation projects, for example, have high upfront costs with little return on investment.

COP29 is an opportunity to bring the public and private sector together to unlock new financing and advance climate adaptation projects. The private sector—both in the region and around the world—has access to needed technologies and has the capacity to undertake climate adaptation projects, from providing drainage on roads and bridges to help ease flash flooding to building decentralized energy grid infrastructure to limit widespread blackouts. Climate adaptation is, after all, in the private sector’s interest. If the effects of hurricanes and climate change worsen and the region’s economies slow, then businesses’ profits will be affected.

What will it take to get the private sector more involved? Attracting private sector participation requires regulatory reforms and carve outs by governments to ensure that companies yield a return on projects. Governments can provide incentives, such as giving exclusive benefits to companies participating in projects and providing subsidies or tax exemptions on materials used. Equally important is access to low-cost finance and capital. Governments can work with institutions such as IDB Invest and global donors that provide grant finance to funnel capital to companies undertaking long-term developments while engaging with insurance agencies that can underwrite riskier projects. 

Caribbean leaders have begun to explore private sector participation in climate adaptation projects, notably through the Bridgetown Initiative and the Blue Green Investment Corporation, but there is still work to be done. COP29 might well be the ideal forum to strengthen these initiatives and encourage commitments from governments and the business community. Doing so requires flexibility from both sectors and a focus on projects that are investment-friendly and can attract global donors. 

In the lead-up to COP29, governments will need to begin laying the regulatory groundwork and soliciting the required technical assistance from development institutions to encourage private sector participation. Moreover, Caribbean governments should consider adding or increasing the size of the private sector groups to their delegations for COP29 to ensure they have a seat at the table and are bought into any signed agreements. Building these public-private relationships can go a long way toward showing global donors and companies the viability of investing in climate adaptation projects in the Caribbean and unlock needed capital that can save lives in the long run.

Wazim Mowla is the associate director and fellow of the Caribbean Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

The post Hurricane Beryl spotlights the importance of climate adaptation in the Caribbean appeared first on Atlantic Council.

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What a difference a year can make. Last summer, I was part of the annual Atlantic Council delegation and research trip to Taiwan that met with then President Tsai Ing-wen. Last week, I again visited Taipei with a delegation that included Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe, during which we met with newly inaugurated President Lai Ching-te. I came away impressed by the progress of Taiwan’s defenses since our last visit. Taipei has continued military reforms and modernization, while shifting more attention and resources to “asymmetric warfare” approaches. And it is incorporating lessons learned from the war in Ukraine into its military planning, doctrine, and force structure. For example, after seeing the effectiveness of drones in Ukraine, Taiwan accelerated and expanded its efforts to field unmanned aerial systems. During our visit, the news broke that Washington had approved Taiwan purchasing over one thousand US-made armed drones.

I also saw momentum toward fully implementing the “all-out national defense” concept, emphasized under Tsai. Most notably, since our last visit, Taiwan followed through with executing plans to extend conscription from four months to one year. This year, a new word was also at the forefront—resilience—mentioned first by some key Taiwanese officials. Resilience was also raised by delegation members, in part because several of us had read a soon-to-be-published draft study on improving Taiwan’s resilience led by Atlantic Council Board Director and Distinguished Fellow Franklin Kramer, along with Philip Yu, Joseph Webster, and Elizabeth Sizeland. For Taiwan, resilience is a term whose exact meaning can be difficult to nail down—as we observed in our discussions—but I considered it to mean Taiwan’s will and ability to withstand Chinese coercion, as well as to adapt and sustain its defenses while under attack.

These opportunities for on-the-ground observations and interactions with officials, experts, and private sector leaders in Taiwan have been enlightening. This was only my second trip to Taiwan despite a longtime personal and professional interest in this embattled island on China’s doorstep. In my US government service as an intelligence officer and strategist, I had been stationed in South Korea for a dozen years, and I had also visited military bases, diplomatic posts, and other sites around the region—but never in Taiwan. The unique “unofficial” relationship between Washington and Taipei—along with decades of US deference to Beijing’s sensitivities—has resulted in, as in my case, many career US military officers and government officials never visiting Taiwan while on duty. Despite the best efforts of the de facto US “country team,” the American Institute in Taiwan, to ensure that US policymakers and analysts are well-informed, this anomaly of so little on-the-ground exposure among US national security professionals may cloud US analysis of Taiwan issues.

In contrast, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s intentions should be clear to Washington: Xi wants to bring Taiwan under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control, by force if necessary. When Xi and his top officials plan to accomplish this goal—and through what combination of subversion, coercion, strangulation, quarantine, blockade, bombardment, and invasion—is less clear and likely depends on unpredictable variables. (The Atlantic Council is exploring this further in its “Tiger Project” covering war and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.)

Some commentators, like our own Brian Kerg, point to the challenges of a cross-strait amphibious attack on Taiwan and emphasize the importance of countering other threats. Other US experts consider invasion to be a plausible “worst case” or “most dangerous” near-future scenario that should be the focus among these various threats. These experts recommend that Taiwan and the United States accelerate their preparations to quickly counter an invasion across the Taiwan Strait as the top priority. Evocative wording plays a part in this focus. Metaphorically turning the Taiwan Strait into a “boiling moat,” as depicted by Matt Pottinger and his colleagues, or into an “unmanned hellscape,” as described by US Indo-Pacific Command’s Admiral Samuel Paparo, often drives conversations on deterrence and defense against China to begin and end with stopping a cross-strait attack. So, too, does more technical terminology, such as Elbridge Colby’s “forward denial defense.” This focus could help deter Beijing from invasion by convincing it that landings are likely to be defeated before they can gain a foothold, but this is a risky bet.

Many Taiwanese officials instead appear to be emphasizing the broader importance of preparing for a sustained defense and ensuring resilience beyond just preparing to stop a cross-strait invasion. The idea that such resilience would contribute to deterrence resonated in some discussions, but one senior nongovernment expert scoffed at the idea that Taiwan’s resilience matters for deterring Xi. He argued that only credible threats to impose unacceptable costs or outright defeat of an invasion would be sufficient. But I question what sort of punishment, short of nuclear strikes, could inflict enough costs in mere weeks if Xi believed that Taiwan was not resilient enough to last very long.

More importantly, a focus on stopping an invasion force does little to deter and defeat other forms of attack aimed at subjugating Taiwan, such as persistent informational pressure and subversion to undermine Taiwan’s will from within, slow “strangulation” through internationally isolating Taiwan and wearing it down with military threats and coercion, and a bombardment or blockade designed to rapidly break Taiwan’s will to resist. The endgame of such scenarios would be either the arrival of a Chinese occupation force, rather than an invasion force, or a political settlement in which Taipei cedes control to Beijing.

When considering how long Taiwan could resist determined military pressure, perhaps the most worrisome point is its energy sector’s near-total reliance on imports by sea combined with insufficient stockpiles. As a result, the disruption or blockade of Taiwan’s sea lines of communication could quickly cripple its electrical power grid, economy, military logistics, and food distribution.

With this in mind, I looked out the window during our late-night flight home and snapped a few photos of the dazzling lights of the Port of Taipei. The view reminded me of the contrasting nighttime satellite photos of a well-lit South Korea next to a mostly pitch-black North Korea, and I pictured how the scene could quickly fall dark under a Chinese blockade. How would the people of Taiwan react? Taiwan can and should improve its energy resilience to be able to keep the lights on even during a lengthy blockade. But thriving maritime commerce will remain Taiwan’s economic lifeblood, so its people will still have to be willing to endure great sacrifices to preserve their freedom in the event China uses force.

To be fair, Taiwanese themselves—including scholars and business leaders we met—have wide-ranging views on the resilience and will to fight of the people of Taiwan. We were also struck by polling data that tells contrasting stories. First, poll after poll shows that a clear majority opposes accepting CCP rule of Taiwan. This is a strong foundation to work with. However, only just less than half of Taiwanese surveyed are “very willing” to fight to defend Taiwan. The good news is that this number can be increased. As one expert in public opinion shared with us, other polls show that Taiwanese are more likely to be willing to fight after receiving military training and if Taiwan can hold out after an initial attack.

Far more concerning, one independent poll we were briefed on suggested that Beijing and Moscow have a sympathetic ear among a large minority of Taiwanese. Given these polls and China’s unrelenting and insidious information warfare, our delegation came away concerned by the threat of subversion to Taiwan’s democracy. But in the next few years, such information warfare is unlikely to be decisive on its own. Instead, it could undermine Taiwan’s unity and will to resist if Beijing forced the issue. In short, if it came to blockade, bombardment, or invasion—accompanied by an information campaign and cyberattacks—would the Taiwanese people fold or fight? This is one question that Taiwanese institutions, such as the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, are exploring.  

In unstructured discussions among members of our delegation, several of us came to the informal conclusion that leadership could be decisive in answering that question—citing positive examples present and past, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Winston Churchill, Ulysses S. Grant, and George Washington. The personal resilience of Taiwan’s democratically elected leadership, along with its determination to ensure continued investments in resilience, could determine Taiwan’s resilience under Chinese attack. This gives me cause for optimism.

Not all of the Taiwanese public has awoken to the rising Chinese threat, and much work remains, but Taiwan grows more resilient by the day. Taiwan’s freedom may hinge on its people’s willingness to invest and make sacrifices to prepare to face unrelenting pressure, up to and including blockade, bombardment, and invasion. Deterrence by preparing military capabilities that could deny success to Chinese invaders or threaten severe punishment will continue to be important, but these capabilities may not matter if Taiwan folds or breaks as Chinese pressure and aggression ramps up. Improving deterrence through resilience—by visibly ensuring Taiwan’s ability to absorb, endure, adapt, and resist—could be the key to Taiwan’s survival.

Markus Garlauskas is the director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, leading the Council’s Tiger Project on War and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. He is a former senior US government official with two decades of service as an intelligence officer and strategist, including twelve years stationed overseas in the region. He posts as @Mister_G_2 on X.

Note: The Atlantic Council delegation’s visit to Taiwan was supported by the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO). This analysis was informed by the research trip and by Atlantic Council activities sponsored by the US Department of Defense. It represents the author’s views and not those of the government of Taiwan or any US government entity.

The Tiger Project, an Atlantic Council effort, develops new insights and actionable recommendations for the United States, as well as its allies and partners, to deter and counter aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Explore our collection of work, including expert commentary, multimedia content, and in-depth analysis, on strategic defense and deterrence issues in the region.

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For more than two years, Ukrainian commanders have been adapting to rapidly evolving battlefield conditions shaped by the use of drones. In the initial weeks of the war, Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones were instrumental in allowing Ukraine to strike over-stretched Russian lines as Putin’s invading army attempted to take Kyiv. A range of countermeasures, including increasingly sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities, have since created an environment where Russian and Ukrainian forces are constantly competing to gain an innovative edge over their adversaries. Many view this military tech contest as the decisive front of the war. 

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As the front line stabilized during the first winter of Russia’s invasion, trench warfare became the defining feature of the conflict, with drones filling the skies and searching for targets. This has created unprecedented visibility on both sides of the front lines and made offensive operations increasingly challenging. A large proportion of the drones buzzing above the Ukrainian battlefield in winter 2022 were Chinese in origin, which placed Russia at a significant advantage due to Moscow’s close ties with Beijing.

Meanwhile, many of the Western drone models used in Ukraine have proved costly and ineffective, according to the Wall Street Journal. Additionally, delays in military aid have underlined the risks for Ukraine of relying too heavily on the country’s Western partners. These factors have helped convince policymakers in Kyiv to concentrate on the development of their own domestic drone industry. They have been able to call upon Ukraine’s vibrant tech sector to support these efforts.

With Ukraine typically losing thousands of drones per month, keeping production costs as low as possible is vital. Flexibility in drone operations is also essential, as drone units frequently use 3D printing to modify and adapt parts to meet specific needs. With this in mind, Ukraine has adopted a decentralized approach to drone development that allows for rapid testing and deployment.

Ukraine’s emphasis on agility contrasts with the more centralized military structure favored by the Kremlin. While Russia can produce vast quantities of military equipment, comparatively slower decision-making processes and bureaucratic inefficiencies often hinder the Kremlin’s ability to respond swiftly to new battlefield realities. Many analysts believe this was a factor behind the recent appointment of a technocrat economist as Russia’s new defense minister.

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The growth of Ukraine’s domestic drone industry over the past two years has been striking, with more than 200 drone-manufacturing companies created. The Ukrainian authorities have allocated $2 billion for the production of drones in 2024, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy setting an annual production target of one million FPV drones.

Ukraine’s leaders hope more drones will mean less reliance on traditional munitions and fewer casualties. “We don’t have as many human resources as Russia. They fight, they die, they send more people, they don’t care, but that’s not how we see war,” commented Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation.

A key element in Ukraine’s drone strategy is the BRAVE1 initiative, a government-led defense tech cluster established in spring 2023 to streamline cooperation between the public and private sectors. This cluster has helped numerous companies cut through red tape, speeding up the implementation of new technologies to support Ukraine’s defense.

The race to innovate is relentless, with Ukraine’s steadily improving drone capabilities mirrored by Russia’s own rapidly expanding electronic warfare arsenal. Ukrainian engineers are now attempting to overcome the Kremlin’s increasingly sophisticated jamming efforts by embedding artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into drones. This innovation has already played a part in Kyiv’s long-range drone strike campaign against Russia’s energy industry, with CNN reporting that Ukraine has employed AI-enabled drones to hit targets as far away as Russia’s Tatarstan region, well over one thousand kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine’s partners certainly seem to recognize the importance of drones and have set up an international drone coalition to aid deliveries. In a further example of institutional innovation, Ukraine has this year become the first nation to establish a separate branch of its military dedicated to drone warfare.

Looking ahead, Ukraine’s drone warfare strategy will continue to focus on flexibility, innovation, and the daily challenge of maintaining a technological advantage over Russia. Ukraine’s leaders know they cannot hope to defeat Russia in a traditional war of attrition, and must instead make the most of the agility and technological ingenuity that the country has demonstrated since February 2022. As Ukraine’s understanding of drone warfare continues to evolve, the outside world will be watching and learning.   

David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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Just a week before his Cannes debut, the internationally acclaimed filmmaker fled Iran on foot after being handed an eight-year sentence and other judgments for clandestinely making his latest movie, The Seed of the Sacred Fig. That film, which defies mandatory hijab restrictions and uses the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising as a backdrop, went on to win the Special Jury Prize at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival.

In recent weeks, the Iranian government’s unprecedented punitive measures against Rasoulof and dissident rapper Toomaj, as he is known to his followers, have ignited widespread controversy, sparking condemnations from civil rights and human rights bodies alike.

These recent decisions have set new precedents in the history of a regime notorious for its draconian punishments.

Rasoulof’s sentencing was the harshest ever imposed on a filmmaker in the history of the Islamic Republic, topping the six years given to fellow director Jafar Panahi. Meanwhile, the death sentence issued by Iran’s judiciary for Toomaj marks an unprecedented decision against a singer.

Open criticism of the regime is what both artists have in common.

To observers, the Islamic Republic’s generic enmity toward artists is now an open secret. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and his coterie firmly believed from the start that to cement theocratic governance, cultural reform is indispensable. Soon after, artists faced bans and expulsions over the “un-Islamic” nature of their profession and any open disapproval of the new order.  

The censorship hit the music and film communities particularly hard. Before the revolution, these industries had flourished in Iran’s liberal climate during the 1960s and 1970s under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

For more than four decades, artists in these fields have been under renewed pressure. At least two prominent directors died suspiciously: Kiyumars Pourahmad in April 2023 and Dariush Mehrjui and his spouse, Vahideh Mohammadifar, in October of the same year. There have also been reports of artists diagnosed with autoimmune diseases after prison release, such as actress Taraneh Alidoosti and filmmaker Mostafa al-Ahmad. Combined with the handing down of exceptionally long terms or capital punishment to artists in the past year, this translates into an anti-art revenge campaign in response to the Women, Life, Freedom uprising.

The sustained support from film-industry professionals and musicians during popular uprisings in Iran—notably during the disputed 2009 post-election protests known as the Green Movement and throughout the Women, Life, Freedom movement—has positioned artists and celebrities as a thorn in the side of the regime, something intelligence agents and authorities have shown they will not tolerate.

According to reformist newspaper Shargh, within just two months after the Women, Life, Freedom uprising kicked off in 2022, nearly one hundred artists were sentenced or banned from working and leaving the country because of comments in support of the protests and defiance of mandatory hijab rules.

In October 2023, the Ministry of Guidance and Islamic Culture imposed acting bans on at least twenty prominent actresses, including Alidoosti, the star of Asghar Farhadi’s Oscar-winning film The Salesman. The women had either posed without hijab on social media or openly supported the protests.

Exile and boycott

The Women, Life, Freedom uprising marked the culmination of a long-running regime face-off with artists, with the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance and intelligence authorities spearheading the confrontation.

The escalating repression has led to many artists choosing self-exile, with Rasoulof a recent example. Indeed, of the twenty-person ban list, nearly half now reside outside Iran. This trend is part of an ongoing exodus of artists fleeing widespread censorship since the 1979 revolution.

Many independent artists who remain in Iran have suspended their activities due to working bans or personal reluctance to engage in the current oppressive political climate, which has only gotten worse since the popular uprisings began in September 2022.

The artistic community’s concerted boycott of the state-sponsored Fajr Artistic Festivals—annually held by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance to commemorate the anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution—over the past two years highlights that these artists might never return to the scene as long as stifling cultural policies and hijab restrictions remain.

Oscar-winning filmmaker Farhadi’s refusal to make a movie in Iran under mandatory hijab in cinema indicates this decisive shift. He revealed the decision in an interview with French newspaper Le Monde in early 2024.

Despite this, artistic productions have not come to a standstill in Iran. Pro-regime artists and those who have never questioned authorities continue to work.

Such projects are often funded by two major media producers in Iran: the state broadcaster known as the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) and the Owj Arts and Media Organization, the arts and production body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). These state-owned entities currently monopolize hundreds of smaller media outlets and production firms, and also monitor the activities of independent media companies. IRIB and Owj productions are primarily used to spread regime propaganda.

The Owj Arts and Media Organization has strategically taken over Iran’s media-production landscape through an expanded and intricate network of connections with broadcaster IRIB and security and cultural authorities. With an estimated budget of $2 million in 2024, it funnels cultural money into various visual genres. High-profile and controversial Owj productions include the television spy series Gando, an Iranian version of the Israeli show Fauda, and musical theater Esfandiyar’s Seven Labors, based on the seminal Persian epic poem the Shahnameh.

Breaking free of long-standing taboos

Amid the boycotting of state-sponsored art by independent artists and the funneling of cultural budgets to state propaganda, a small yet burgeoning group of independent artists have pushed the boundaries of moviemaking from inside Iran.

Showing women without hijab and physical contact between men and women have been unbreakable taboos in post-revolution Iranian cinema. Yet, in the wake of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, a batch of Iranian movies—made inside Iran without observing mandatory hijab and other restrictions and without obtaining a license from the authorities—were screened at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, and received acclaim from Iranian and international audiences. Me, Maryam, the Children and 26 Others by Farshad Hashemi and Terrestrial Verses by Ali Agari and Alireza Khatami received overwhelmingly positive reviews.

Since then, other internationally acclaimed dramas, such as My Favorite Cake directed by Maryam Moghaddam and Behtash Sanaeeha, and Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, have openly traversed the Islamic Republic’s long-standing red lines and strict dress codes.

The homegrown push could be seen as an evolution of underground art, a method of creation long used to depict prohibited subjects within Iran. However, it has never been as public and transgressive as it has now become.

It could be argued that the independent artists’ intentional disengagement from all forms of state-related art, powered by the emergence of a new generation of taboo breakers in Iranian cinema, exposes the failure of regime strategies to threaten and impede Iran-based dissident artists.

Unsurprisingly, the Islamic Republic’s restrictive measures have only spurred Iranian artists to resist pressure, open radical fronts, and fundamentally subvert the ideological restrictions on artistic independence and creation that have been enforced since the 1979 revolution.

Shekufe Bar is a journalist who writes about art, culture, and society.

The post The high price of dissident art in Iran: Silence or exile appeared first on Atlantic Council.

“In order more effectively to achieve the objectives of this Treaty, the Parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack,” reads Article 3 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which was signed seventy-five years ago in Washington, DC. Even though Article 3 precedes Article 5, many allies have not taken it particularly seriously—at least not since the end of the Cold War.

That’s because national resilience is harder to quantify than military defense. With the latter, the armed forces, policymakers, and even the public can assess how large and effective efforts are. Armed forces have a specific number of active-duty service members, a specific number of reservists, and specific weaponry. But the “individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack” involves a plethora of skills and items that are much harder to identify, let alone measure. There are no rules governing who should participate in resilience, nor is there an official level at which a country (or organization) is considered resilient.

At the 2016 Warsaw summit, NATO leaders attempted to elevate resilience standards by adopting seven “baseline requirements.” These were: assured continuity of government and critical government services, resilient energy supplies, the ability to deal effectively with the uncontrolled movement of people, resilient food and water resources, the ability to deal with mass casualties, resilient civil communications systems, and resilient civil transportation systems. Creating that list was a worthy step, though some allies have treated the baselines more like ambitions than requirements.

Some allies, though, go far beyond the baseline requirements. Indeed, they make national resilience a matter not just of infrastructure and governmental capabilities: instead, they involve the population. Two of the foremost practitioners of societal resilience, Sweden and Finland, have joined the Alliance at just the right time, because they have invaluable knowledge to share.

In the case of Sweden, its society-wide involvement in national security dates back to World War II, when the country had to meet Nazi leader Adolf Hitler’s total war by marshaling all the resources at its disposal: total defense. During the Cold War, Sweden turned these efforts into a system so well-managed that millions (in a country of some eight million at the end of the Cold War) were involved in various parts of national security: as soldiers, as reservists, as members of auxiliary defense organizations, as civilians in crucial professions (from daycare teachers to nuclear engineers), and as ordinary citizens knowing what to do in case of war, because the authorities had regularly kept them informed.

Finland, prevented by the Soviets from operating auxiliary defense organizations, focused instead on preparedness and what it called mental territorial defense: making the Finns steadfast in their support of the country. (Those interested can read more about it in The Defender’s Dilemma.) In recent years, Sweden has once again proven itself as an innovator when it comes to resilience, with initiatives such as the If Crisis or War Comes leaflet, which the Civil Contingencies Agency published six years ago. Especially now that the two friends and neighbors have finally made it into NATO, other allies can pick from their collection of resilience practices and adopt and adapt the ones they like without having to spend the considerable time it takes to create such practices from scratch. Indeed, this kind of learning is already picking up speed. These days Latvia, for example, has a Sweden-like booklet called How to Deal with a Crisis.

But the much-lauded Swedes and Finns, and their Nordic and Baltic friends, are not NATO’s only resilience leaders. The Czech Republic has, through its ministry of defense, launched gray-zone exercises for the private sector. Until the Czech initiative, national-security training for companies had barely been addressed by NATO’s member states, mostly because doing so would require setting up a new format and designing the exercises. Now that the Czech Republic has done so, others can save time and effort by building on the Czechs’ initiatives.

Other allies are also taking important steps. Latvia, for its part, has introduced a defense curriculum that teaches all its high schoolers resilience skills. Germany’s Technisches Hilfswerk (THW), too, is a model worth learning from: 99 percent of those working for this federal agency, whose members help in public emergencies such as storms, are volunteers. The THW doesn’t have a national security mandate, but its model can easily be adapted to national resilience. NATO member states would also do well to learn from close friends outside the Alliance. In the Indo-Pacific, Singapore has an annual total defense day, and Australia is developing an ambitious resilience strategy.

Not every practice is applicable to every NATO country, but what matters is that solutions exist. Learning from friends willing to share best practices is the easiest and most efficient way of learning.

Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and the author of Goodbye, Globalization: The Return of a Divided World (Yale University Press: 2024).

NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary is a milestone in a remarkable story of reinvention, adaptation, and unity. However, as the Alliance seeks to secure its future for the next seventy-five years, it faces the revanchism of old rivals, escalating strategic competition, and uncertainties over the future of the rules-based international order.

With partners and allies turning attention from celebrations to challenges, the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative invited contributors to engage with the most pressing concerns ahead of the historic Washington summit and chart a path for the Alliance’s future. This series will feature seven essays focused on concrete issues that NATO must address at the Washington summit and five essays that examine longer-term challenges the Alliance must confront to ensure transatlantic security.

The post National resilience is a crucial part of defense. Here are the countries doing it right. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

The restored Jewish cemetery in Praia—more precisely, the Jewish section of an interfaith cemetery—was reinaugurated in 2013 after a collaboration between the Municipal Chamber of Praia and the Cabo Verde Jewish Heritage Project, with the support of Morocco’s king. The Cabo Verde Jewish Heritage Project worked closely with the Cabo Verdean Ministry of Communities and the National Library of Cabo Verde to coordinate the celebration, which included the unveiling of commemorative plaques and a conference at the National Library exploring the legacy of Moroccan Jews in Cabo Verde. This event brought together scholars, historians, and descendants of Cabo Verde’s Moroccan Jews for a dialogue about their profound historical and cultural impact.

The origins of Cabo Verde’s Jewish communities date back to the nineteenth century, starting with the arrival of Moroccan Jews from cities like Tangier, Tetouan, Rabat, Essaouira, and Gibraltar in search of economic opportunities. These communities left a lasting impression on the archipelago’s history by contributing significantly to its cultural and economic development. The descendants of Moroccan Jews in Cabo Verde still have their Sephardic names—such as Auday, Brigham, and Cohen—and descendants of these families speak with great pride of their Jewish ancestors and honor their legacy by preserving their Jewish heritage. The resurrection of this house of life, which was falling into disrepair and represents the Jewish Moroccan presence in this Atlantic archipelago, is a profound act that transcends merely dusting off the collective memory. Restoring the cemetery of Praia is an acknowledgment of the historical connection, the influence of the Moroccan Jewish community, and the safeguarding of their heritage and preventing it from being lost to time.

In its steadfast pursuit of fostering convivencia and interfaith dialogue, Cabo Verde has worked to recognize and respect cultural diversity. This has been achieved by embracing Moroccan and Gibraltarian Jewish heritage as an integral part of Cabo Verde’s national heritage. In doing so, Cabo Verde commemorates the diverse heritage of its multicultural past and honors the profound bonds between Cabo Verde and Morocco today—specifically their shared values and mutual dedication to upholding the principles of religious and cultural pluralism.

This reciprocal acknowledgment and the elevation of Jewish heritage as a pivotal element of Cabo Verde’s national heritage is an expression of the commitment of Cabo Verde and Morocco to fostering peace and valuing diversity. This ten-year-old project’s continued relevance is a poignant symbol of the myriad steps taken to forge a more inclusive and cohesive society. Cabo Verde’s initiative goes beyond merely safeguarding its varied cultural and religious identity; it fortifies the bridges of comprehension and mutual respect with Morocco, underscoring the crucial role of diversity in underpinning national unity and social harmony.

Moreover, Morocco and Cabo Verde’s joint efforts exemplify the essence of intra-African collaboration dialogue, including respect for diversity and the recognition that harmonious living among communities is pivotal for societal advancement and overall stability. This approach paves the way for a peaceful and prosperous Africa, embracing inclusivity and convivencia as cornerstones for progress.

Highlighting this, Minister of Cabo Verdean Communities Jorge Santos signed the Call of Rabat for the Preservation of the African Jewish Heritage during the second annual Jewish Africa Conference in 2022. African leaders, as well as friends of the Jewish community in Africa, signed the call, which invites all parties involved—individuals, civil society, and governments—to acknowledge the rich history of the Jewish people in Africa and the need to protect and make accessible Jewish historical sites across the continent; to strengthen the sacred “chords of memory” that connect various generations and peoples to the African Jewish experience, particularly through cultural and educational initiatives; to give African youths the tools they need to preserve, propagate, and celebrate African Jewish cultures; to collaborate in the preservation, restoration, and renovation of significant Jewish sites on the African continent; and to establish a mechanism to further these objectives as well as to provide opportunities for African Jewish voices.

The Call of Rabat is a considerable effort to unite and celebrate the rich diversity of African-Jewish and non-Jewish communities. Africa’s history, culture, and religion are woven together like a complex tapestry with strands of coexistence, unity, and togetherness, as evidenced by Cabo Verde’s restoration of Jewish cemeteries. Judaism in Africa has grown from biblical times to the present, symbolizing the continent’s rare ethnic and religious diversity. Beyond bridging historical gaps, the Call of Rabat opens the door to a future in which diversity and unity combine to form a peaceful, inclusive society by bolstering the presence of Judaism in Africa.

From Rabat to Praia, a new generation of African leaders is reclaiming their Jewish history and realizing a brighter future.

El Mehdi Boudra is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s N7 Initiative and the founder and president of Mimouna Association, a Moroccan nongovernmental organization. Follow him on X: @ElBoudra.

The post How Cabo Verde is highlighting the rich history of the Jewish people in Africa appeared first on Atlantic Council.

The region has an urgent need to prepare for the scope of climate change. Many of the region’s countries rely on tourism to drive economic growth, with ten of the world’s twenty most tourism-dependent economies residing in the Caribbean. When hurricanes roll through the region, damaging infrastructure and halting flights, the tourism industry halts as well, diminishing economic prospects. Most Caribbean countries face the brunt of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is producing stronger and more frequent tropical storms. At the same time, most of the region’s populous cities are coastal, making sea level rise a threat to homes and the day-to-day functions of society. Further, changing precipitation patterns and higher average temperatures result in agricultural degradation and more acidic oceans, decreasing crop yields in rural areas and limiting fishery supplies.

While the entire region faces daunting consequences from climate change and related natural disasters, women and girls face disproportionate effects across four areas.

First, women and girls are “especially vulnerable to sexual violence and coercion” in the wake of a natural disaster, according to the United Nations Population Fund. This risk includes and extends beyond domestic violence, which is known to spike in crisis situations, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic in Trinidad and Tobago. Disproportionate risks mount, the World Bank notes, “in the face of uprooted housing and traditional support structures, disrupted access to services, and both structural and social obstacles to accessing food, relief, supplies, and latrines.” A lack of privacy and security in shelters is problematic, especially for young and teenage girls.

Second, women are responsible for a greater share of caregiving for families and households. After Hurricane María knocked out the power grid in Puerto Rico and made potable water scarce, it was women who bore a greater burden in doing the cooking, laundry, and cleaning to keep households going. Moreover, across multiple climate change events, when schools close, women with school-age children are often unable to return to work or attend school themselves.

Third, Caribbean women tend to work in the informal economy, including small-scale businesses and the hospitality sector, both of which are adversely affected by tropical storms. Storms can damage crops and roads, making it difficult to get produce to markets, while also leaving restaurants, shops, and hotels closed for days, affecting incomes.

Finally, women often have unequal access to finance, capital, and other assets, which can affect their resilience after a disaster. In addition, as governments finance the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure after natural disasters and fortify existing structures, there are fewer resources devoted to the education and health sectors—both of which are integral to providing care to and lifting family responsibility burdens from women.

Caribbean governments and regional partners must factor in the disproportionate challenges facing women and girls at the earliest stages of climate resilience and adaptation policymaking. Policy designs should incorporate government funding or subsidies dedicated to women-owned businesses adversely affected by climate change. Historically, Caribbean women face barriers to accessing finance and capital to start or invest in their businesses. Limited track records in operating a business relative to men and frequent climate events increase the risk profiles for women-owned firms. Here, governments can work with regional institutions like the Caribbean Development Bank to level the playing field for women-owned firms by providing grants to businesses in climate-affected sectors, like hospitality and agricultural work.

Further, resources can and should be dedicated to women-owned firms that are physically affected by climate events and to create shelters where at-risk women and girls can stay after natural disasters to limit spaces where gender-based violence can occur. This should include shelters that can care for children and allow working parents to return to their jobs to offset the disproportionate costs borne by women resulting from family responsibilities.

Involving women in policy designs also includes making them part of the decision-making process. Only women and girls can provide first-hand information to contextualize policies and streamline resources that address the unique challenges they face due to climate change. One way to do this is to incorporate perspectives from gender-focused civil society organizations.

Civil society organizations are uniquely intertwined with the realities of each country at national and subnational levels, allowing them to understand the day-to-day challenges facing women and girls across different communities. Governments can work with civil society organizations to ensure that policies are not blanket approaches but are bottom-up in nature, so that each community of women and girls receive the resources and attention they require. Regular consultation with these groups, particularly in the advent of hurricane season, during rainy seasons, and in the lead-up to drier months can provide real-time insights into the types of government resources that should be devoted to women and girls.

Given that the Caribbean is a heterogeneous region, with different climate events affecting different countries, it is essential for policy design and decision making to be country-specific as well as gender inclusive to best serve local populations. Climate change does not have to result in increasing gender inequity in the Caribbean—as long as the voices and interests of women and girls are incorporated in policy design and resource allocation in regional planning to combat climate change.

Wazim Mowla is the associate director and fellow for the Caribbean Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center. 

This article is part of the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s partnership with the UN Women Multi-Country Office–Caribbean.

The post Climate change doesn’t have to result in greater gender inequity in the Caribbean appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Public Event Wed, April 24, 2024 • 3:00 pm ET

CEO Scott Nathan on DFC’s work on energy security and other strategic priorities

An #ACFRONTPAGE EVENT—Scott Nathan, chief executive officer of the US International Development Finance Corporation, discusses the agency’s role in US efforts to advance global energy security and other strategic US priorities.

Energy & Environment Energy Markets & Governance Geopolitics & Energy Security

The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) isn’t “directly competing” with China, according to its chief executive officer Scott Nathan, but it is “offering an alternative.”

Nathan spoke at an Atlantic Council Front Page event hosted by the Council’s Global Energy Center on Wednesday, explaining that the DFC is different from Chinese development banks or Chinese investment initiatives (such as the Global Development Initiative and Belt and Road Initiative) because it supports the private sector directly. The DFC doesn’t lend money to governments for “big and also sometimes bloated” projects that aren’t “appropriate for local laws and conditions,” he said, alluding to China’s investments that have pushed countries into deep debt.

The DFC head recalled how foreign government officials have told him that “they don’t want to be dependent on one country for their source of finance.”

“Good development is good foreign policy,” he explained. “That’s in our national interest.”

Here are more highlights from the conversation, moderated by Amelia Lester, executive editor of Foreign Policy.

Standing out in the marketplace

• How exactly does the DFC differ from China’s investment engines? Nathan said it’s in part because “we maintain the highest standards possible” when it comes to “environmental, social, [and] labor” practices. It is “critical,” he added, not only to support economic development but also to “promote . . . values.”
• One important area is in internet connectivity—in which China is investing heavily, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The DFC, meanwhile, is supporting projects that push forward secure equipment and networks that protect privacy, Nathan said, highlighting specific DFC-supported projects in Australia and Africa that are offering an alternative to China’s services. “This is critical for growth,” he said, adding that infrastructure is “not just energy, airports, and railways. You need the infrastructure of the twenty-first century for economic development.”
• Nathan explained that the DFC was created by Congress in 2018 due to a “strong sense” among both Republicans and Democrats that the United States needed to improve its economic-diplomacy game. “We needed to show up in the developing world and offer an alternative to what was being offered by authoritarian governments and our strategic competitors,” he said.
• The DFC is due to be reauthorized by Congress in 2025. “There is a strong demand signal for us to do more to show up,” Nathan said. “That requires us being reauthorized; it requires continuous funding.”

Showing up for Ukraine

• Nathan explained that the DFC has provided nearly $500 million in financing to businesses in Ukraine and has offered political risk insurance—which includes coverage for war-related risks—that has catalyzed more investments in Ukraine’s private sector.
• The most critical tool to support Ukraine’s private sector, however, is “solid air defense,” Nathan said. It’s “hard to make decisions around investment and capital expenditure in an environment of such high insecurity.”
• Nathan explained that the United States has had a long history of providing political risk insurance. Since the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (DFC’s predecessor) started offering the insurance, he said, the United States has “done over $50 billion. . . of political risk insurance” and has had “just over a billion dollars of claims.” The institutions have covered 97 percent of those claims, he added. “So it’s not only been very important for economic activity. . . but it’s been very profitable.”
• Working in Ukraine, Nathan said, has shown him how important it is for the DFC to work closely with its peers, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Finance Corporation, and European Investment Bank.

A diversified system

• Earlier this year, the DFC provided a $500 million loan to US company First Solar to build a new solar panel manufacturing facility in Tamil Nadu, India. Nathan said that the plant, which will use cadmium telluride sourced from India instead of China, “fits into the [DFC’s] supply chain diversification goals. . . We need to make sure that we’re not dependent on one country or one company for the inputs of the industries of the future.”
• “If we can do this kind of thing elsewhere in the world to make sure that supply chains are broadly diversified, that helps with resilience,” he argued, adding that the United States must not “replace dependency on oil” with dependency on “a couple of nations,” as that would bring “all sorts of strategic vulnerabilities.”
• “Having countries be able to be self-reliant, to have the energy they need for economic development, that promotes stability. . . that’s good for our security,” he said.
• On critical minerals, Nathan highlighted several projects underway in Africa, including one on graphite in Mozambique. And, he added, as the DFC invests in that project, it will also be working with the US Department of Energy, which has loaned a company in Louisiana funds to expand its capacity to produce graphite-based materials for batteries. “It’s critical to start with the sourcing of the minerals,” Nathan said. “But there’s a whole value chain” to support.

Katherine Walla is an associate director on the editorial team at the Atlantic Council.

Watch the event

The post How the US is pitching a development finance ‘alternative’ to China’s initiatives, according to Scott Nathan appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Responding to the news from Washington DC, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought to underline the broad historical significance of the vote. “I am grateful to the United States House of Representatives, both parties, and personally to Speaker Mike Johnson for a decision that keeps history on the right track,” he commented. “Democracy and freedom will never fail as long as America helps protect it. A just peace and security can only be attained through strength.”

In his daily address, Zelenskyy also noted the critical importance of fresh US military supplies for Ukraine’s war effort and for the entire country’s security amid an escalating Russian bombing campaign. The bill passed by the House of Representatives is “a very significant package that will be appreciated both by our soldiers on the front lines and by our towns and villages suffering from Russian terror,” the Ukrainian leader stated.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the vote “a bad day for Putin” and “a bad day for anyone who dared to believe that America could waver when it comes to defending what and who it stands for.” Ukraine’s top diplomat also stressed the role of the bill in bolstering the US position on the international stage. “Everyone who made this decision a reality made the right choice. The United States has reaffirmed its global leadership.”

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Saturday’s vote in the United States was closely monitored by Ukrainian troops stationed thousands of miles away on the front lines of the war in eastern and southern Ukraine. Ukrainian ambassador-at-large Olexander Scherba shared a message sent to him by one soldier serving in the Donbas, who recounted the enthusiastic reaction among his comrades. “The whole unit was watching. After the vote, you could hear shouts of “YESSS!” along the entire trench.”

For many Ukrainians, the House of Representatives vote has helped rebuild faith in the country’s international partners following months of mounting frustration and feelings of abandonment. Since late summer 2023, Ukrainians have watched in dismay as their country’s survival has become hostage to US domestic politics. Meanwhile, Russia has taken advantage of Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition and air defenses to regain the battlefield initiative in eastern Ukraine and launch a nationwide bombing campaign targeting the country’s increasingly unprotected residential districts and civilian infrastructure.

With major new US weapons shipments reportedly “ready to go” once final confirmation of the aid package is received from the Senate and the White House, there are now renewed hopes that Ukraine will receive the military support it needs in order to push Russian forces back and defend the country. This boost could not be more timely, with Ukrainian weapons shortages rapidly approaching critical levels and preparations well underway for what is expected to be a major Russian offensive in the coming months.

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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In the wake of Saturday’s vote, Ukrainian army medic Yulia Paievska was one of numerous prominent figures from the country’s military community to praise Ukraine’s American partners and stress the importance of their continued support in the struggle against Russia. “They have lived up to their promises, which once again proves that justice and freedom are not empty words to the American people,” she commented. “Despite all the obstacles, we advance toward victory.”

These upbeat sentiments were echoed by a number of front line soldiers quoted by CNN. “We thought our partners had forgotten about us. This news gives us a sense of support and an understanding that we have not been forgotten,” one Ukrainian intelligence officer serving on the Zaporizhzhia front noted. “When we feel support from the outside, it motivates us. After all, the military knows it cannot win with sticks and bows and arrows,” stated another.

While the House of Representatives vote clearly boosted Ukrainian morale, many in Ukraine were also realistic about the scale of the challenges that remain. With the US presidential election set to take place later this year, further large-scale US military aid cannot be taken for granted. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s European partners are working to boost defense production but have so far struggled to fill the gap created by the recent pause in US security assistance.

If Western leaders are serious about preventing a Russian victory in Ukraine, they will have to look beyond the current $61 billion US aid package and develop the necessary resources to prevail in a long confrontation with the Kremlin. “Please don’t forget that Russia’s annual military budget is more than $100 billion,” noted Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko on Saturday evening. “We have won time today, but we have not won the war. We will still need to finish the job.”

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Mar 31, 2024

Ukraine urgently needs air defenses as Russia decimates power grid

By Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti

A new Russian air offensive has destroyed much of Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in a matter of days and threatens to spark a humanitarian catastrophe if Ukraine does not urgently receive enhanced air defenses, writes Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti.

Conflict Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert Apr 18, 2024

Putin’s plan to depopulate Ukraine

By Peter Dickinson

Vladimir Putin’s new plan for victory in Ukraine appears to rely on a strategic bombing campaign to render entire regions of the country uninhabitable, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Geopolitics & Energy Security

UkraineAlert Apr 16, 2024

Western fear of escalation will hand Putin an historic victory in Ukraine

By Mykola Bielieskov

The West’s self-defeating fear of escalation has allowed Russia to regain the initiative in Ukraine and is now threatening to hand Putin an historic victory, writes Mykola Bielieskov.

Conflict Disinformation

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Learn more

The post ‘A bad day for Putin’: US aid vote gives Ukrainians renewed hope appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Terekhov is the latest in a series of high-profile voices to raise the alarm over the increasingly dire situation in and around Kharkiv. Located in eastern Ukraine close to the front and just thirty miles from the Russian border, the city has been the primary target of a new Russian air offensive that appears designed to depopulate large parts of Ukraine. “The Kremlin wants to make Ukraine’s second city unlivable,” reported The Economist in early April.

Russian attacks on Kharkiv’s civilian infrastructure and residential districts have increased dramatically over the past few months, killing dozens and leaving the city’s approximately 1.3 million residents with often sporadic access to electricity. A wave of Russian bombings on March 22 proved particularly damaging, destroying Kharkiv’s two main power plants and network of substations in a calculated move to plunge the city into darkness.

Hospitals, businesses, and homeowners are now scrambling to secure generators and other alternative power sources in anticipation of further blackouts, with children forced to study online or in makeshift underground classrooms. For now, most Kharkiv residents appear intent on staying put. However, if the situation does not improve in the coming months, there may be a mass exodus ahead of the winter season. Indeed, many fear that without enhanced air defenses, conditions inside the city could become intolerable much sooner.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

The destruction of Kharkiv would certainly be a major war crime, but it would be far from unprecedented. On the contrary, the methodical depopulation of Ukraine’s second city would be very much in keeping with the destructive tactics employed by Russia ever since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine first began more than two years ago.

From Mariupol to Bakhmut, the Russian military has reduced a long list of Ukrainian towns and cities to rubble as it has slowly steamrollered forward along the largely static front lines of the war. Although it is not possible to accurately determine casualty figures in areas currently under Russian occupation, tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians are believed to have been killed in Mariupol alone.

While the Kharkiv region has been the worst hit, the recent escalation in Russian bombardments has impacted the whole country, with attacks on the power grid in particular creating unprecedented challenges for the entire Ukrainian energy sector. This appears to be the result of extensive planning in Moscow, with Russian military officials learning important lessons from the failure of their winter 2022-23 energy infrastructure bombing offensive.

“Rather than continuing to focus their attacks on Ukraine’s transmission systems, Russia has began launching massive attacks on our energy generation infrastructure,” the CEO of Ukrainian energy provider DTEK, Maxim Timchenko, told CNN. “Unfortunately, the enemy has evolved his tactics and is using high-precision weapons. The result is a huge increase in its destructive effectiveness compared to 2023.”

The timing of the current bombing campaign also suggests Moscow is looking to take advantage of growing gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses. With a vital aid package held up in the US Congress for more than half a year, the Ukrainian military is currently suffering from a wide range of shortages, leaving front line commanders and air defense crews with no choice but to ration dwindling supplies of ammunition.

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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Ukraine’s main port city and international maritime gateway, Odesa, has been heavily targeted in recent months. Attacks on residential areas in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions of northern Ukraine have also accelerated noticeably. In early April, a massive barrage of missiles succeeded in penetrating Ukraine’s depleted air defenses close to the country’s capital, destroying the largest power plant in the Kyiv region. “Why? Because we had zero missiles. We ran out of all missiles,” a clearly exasperated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told PBS NewsHour.

Ukrainian officials are now urgently appealing for extra air defenses to help counter Russia’s bombing campaign. So far, the response has been muted, with only Germany confirming plans to hand over a Patriot system. Others, such as the Netherlands, have offered to purchase Patriot systems on behalf of Ukraine. While these steps are welcome, much more needs to be done to protect Ukraine’s civilian population and the country’s infrastructure.

Many analysts believe improved air defenses are not enough and argue that in order to effectively counter Putin’s terror-bombing tactics, Ukraine must be given the necessary long-range weapons to target Russian launch sites. However, this would require Ukraine’s partners to overcome their well-documented fear of escalation and reverse a longstanding ban on the use of Western weapons for attacks inside Russia. At present, there is little sign of that happening.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague has already issued arrest warrants for two high-ranking Russian military officers over the 2022-23 bombing of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, but this is of little comfort to the beleaguered Ukrainian population, who know it will be years before they see even symbolic justice served. Meanwhile, the current bombing campaign continues to gain momentum. This new air offensive is far more ambitious than Russia’s earlier efforts, with the apparent end goal of rendering entire Ukrainian regions uninhabitable.

Unless Ukraine’s air defenses are dramatically upgraded in the near future, the country will face a humanitarian catastrophe that could potentially define the future course of the war. Putin has been unable to defeat Ukraine decisively on the battlefield, but his bombing campaign may yet succeed in breaking Ukrainian resistance by forcing millions of civilians to flee their blacked out homes and ruined cities.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Mar 31, 2024

Ukraine urgently needs air defenses as Russia decimates power grid

By Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti

A new Russian air offensive has destroyed much of Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in a matter of days and threatens to spark a humanitarian catastrophe if Ukraine does not urgently receive enhanced air defenses, writes Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti.

Conflict Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert Apr 16, 2024

Western fear of escalation will hand Putin an historic victory in Ukraine

By Mykola Bielieskov

The West’s self-defeating fear of escalation has allowed Russia to regain the initiative in Ukraine and is now threatening to hand Putin an historic victory, writes Mykola Bielieskov.

Conflict Disinformation

UkraineAlert Apr 15, 2024

Organizing for victory

By Ben Hodges

In the escalating struggle against Putin’s Russia, Iran, and China, The West needs a return to the clarity of Churchill and Roosevelt, who communicated clear strategic priorities to the public, industry, and the military, writes Ben Hodges.

Conflict Defense Industry

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Learn more

The post Putin’s plan to depopulate Ukraine appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Kyiv Oblast and the US state of Washington recently took a major step in this direction. In March 2024, Washington State Governor Jay Inslee and his Kyiv Oblast counterpart Ruslan Kravchenko signed the first Sister State Agreement between a US state and a Ukrainian region.

Washington’s Sister State Agreement with Kyiv Oblast is emblematic of the benefits that robust subnational diplomacy can provide. In Ukraine’s case, subnational diplomacy creates opportunities to highlight the strengths of Ukraine’s many diverse regions. Strong local and regional partnerships can also be maintained regardless of the changing political winds that envelop national capitals.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

The recently signed agreement with Kyiv Oblast was not the start of Washington State’s efforts to support Ukraine. Since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Washington has provided a powerful example of the role regional governments can play in responding to global events.

In March 2022, Governor Inslee directed state agencies to begin reviewing and severing ties with Russian state institutions and companies. In the initial weeks of the invasion, local nonprofits worked together with the state’s Ukrainian diaspora community to organize the delivery of 32 tons of medical supplies to Ukraine. During 2022, Washington State officials allocated nearly $20 million to support the influx of Ukrainian refugees.

According to the Seattle Times, more Ukrainian refugees have arrived in Washington State over the past two years than any other US state. This warm welcome owes much to the state’s vibrant Ukrainian-American community, according Geoffrey Potter, director of international relations and protocol for Governor Jay Inslee. He says the new Sister State Agreement and Washington’s other efforts to support Ukraine are “an expression” of the way local residents with Ukrainian roots have become an integral part of the Washington community.

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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Ukraine’s honorary consul in Seattle, Valeriy Goloborodko, believes the Sister State Agreement will pave the way for closer ties and can help “further relationships between academics, industries, and regional governments for the benefit of the people.” Meanwhile, Potter notes a number of common interests linking the Kyiv region and Washington including clean energy, forestry, and the aerospace industry.

As wartime Ukraine looks ahead toward the challenges of recovery and reconstruction, subnational diplomacy can open up a range of new business opportunities. Major Washington State-based business brands including Boeing and Microsoft are already active in Ukraine. The state’s many small businesses are also playing an important role in strengthening ties. In Tacoma, Washington-based SAFE Boats is currently outfitting eight patrol boats destined for Ukraine’s navy. BRINC Drones, based in Seattle, is supplying drones for Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression.

At a time when the issue of vital military aid for Ukraine has become hostage to domestic US political tensions, grassroots relationships can help individual Ukrainian regions bypass the kind of obstacles that might otherwise hamper progress at the national level. With this in mind, Ukraine’s regional leaders and their counterparts across the globe should now be seeking to develop stronger subnational ties that can solidify relationships for the long term.

Washington State’s agreement with Kyiv Oblast offers an attractive model that others can follow, both in the US and beyond. In Goloborodko’s view, the recently signed Sister State Agreement “is a way to show leadership in supporting democracy.” The initiative is the first of its kind for a US state, but Potter is “pretty sure” it will not be the last. “We’re forging a model for what a meaningful, substantive collaboration looks like,” he says.

Benton Coblentz is a program assistant with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Mar 31, 2024

Ukraine urgently needs air defenses as Russia decimates power grid

By Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti

A new Russian air offensive has destroyed much of Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in a matter of days and threatens to spark a humanitarian catastrophe if Ukraine does not urgently receive enhanced air defenses, writes Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti.

Conflict Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert Apr 11, 2024

Ukraine pleads for Patriot air defense systems as Russia destroys power grid

By Peter Dickinson

Officials in Kyiv are calling on partners to urgently supply Patriot systems as Russia capitalizes on Ukraine’s weakening air defenses to methodically destroy the country’s power grid, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert Apr 3, 2024

Ukraine’s allies divided over drone campaign targeting Russian refineries

By Giorgi Revishvili

Ukraine’s expanding campaign of drone strikes on Russian refineries has inflicted significant damage on Putin’s oil and gas industry while also revealing divisions among Ukraine’s allies, writes Giorgi Revishvili.

Conflict Drones

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Learn more

The post Grassroots diplomacy can help unlock international support for Ukraine appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Speaking to the Washington Post this week, Kuleba explained that his tough new tone reflects the growing sense of exasperation felt by many in Kyiv at the apparent lack of urgency among Ukraine’s partners amid growing shortages of vital military aid. “We’ve tried everything, and nothing seems to work,” he commented. “The feeling that extraordinary decisions are needed on a regular basis to end this war with a victory for Ukraine is gone.”

Kuleba says his team has identified more the one hundred available Patriot systems that could potentially be handed over to Ukraine. Officials in Kyiv say they need 26 systems in order to provide comprehensive cover for the entire country. The immediate objective is to acquire seven Patriot systems to guard key targets against Russian airstrikes. EU partners including Germany have vowed to assist in the search for Patriot systems, but there have yet to be any breakthroughs.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Ukraine’s hunt for Patriot air defense systems is taking place against the backdrop of an escalating Russian air offensive that is capitalizing on months declining Western military support and prolonged deadlock in the US Congress over a major Ukrainian aid package. With gaps now growing in Ukraine’s air defense network and individual air defense units increasingly obliged to ration their dwindling resources, Russia has launched a series of overnight attacks in recent weeks that have decimated much of Ukraine’s power grid.

Ukraine’s second-largest city and former capital, Kharkiv, has been particularly hard hit. Located just a few dozen miles from the border with Russia in eastern Ukraine, the city has been subjected to an intensive bombing campaign since mid-March that has caused extensive damage to residential districts and civilian infrastructure. In recent weeks, hundreds of thousands have been left without power for extended periods.

The destruction in Kharkiv has been so severe that some analysts now believe Russia’s objective is to empty the city of its more than one million residents ahead of an anticipated summer offensive. “The Kremlin wants to make Ukraine’s second city unlivable,” reported Britain’s The Economist in early April.

Eurasia Center events

Online Event Thu, August 15, 2024 • 9:00 am ET

Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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The latest wave of Russian missiles and drones struck targets across Ukraine early on April 11. In an indication of Ukraine’s increasingly ineffective air defenses and mounting vulnerability to Russian bombardment, all of the Kremlin’s hard-to-intercept hypersonic and ballistic missiles reportedly reached their objectives, according to the Kyiv Post.

A major power plant close to Kyiv was among those destroyed in the overnight attack, dealing a further significant blow to Ukraine’s energy resilience. The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, the largest supplier of electricity to central Ukraine’s Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr regions, suffered a series of direct hits and was left in ruins.

“The scale of destruction is terrifying,” commented Andriy Hota, the chairman of Ukrainian energy company Centrenergo. Speaking to the BBC, Hota said the Kyiv region plant can be rebuilt with the help of spare parts from elsewhere in Europe, but warned that the facility will remain vulnerable to Russian attack unless Ukraine’s partners provide powerful air defenses. “We can repair. We can do the impossible. But we need protection.”

With each new Russian bombardment destroying more of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, there is a growing sense that time is now running out to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in the country. Unless Ukraine urgently receives additional air defense systems and ammunition, entire regions could soon face rapidly deteriorating conditions without access to electricity and other basic services. This could fuel a new refugee crisis, with millions of Ukrainians entering the EU.

The collapse of the country’s power grid would also cause economic mayhem and dramatically undermine the Ukrainian war effort. This would set the stage for a Russian military victory that would have disastrous consequences for Ukraine itself and for the future of international security. Russia has so far been unable to break Ukraine on the battlefield, but there is now a very real chance that a lack of air defenses will allow the Kremlin to achieve its goals by targeting Ukraine’s increasingly undefended civilian infrastructure.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Mar 31, 2024

Ukraine urgently needs air defenses as Russia decimates power grid

By Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti

A new Russian air offensive has destroyed much of Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in a matter of days and threatens to spark a humanitarian catastrophe if Ukraine does not urgently receive enhanced air defenses, writes Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti.

Conflict Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert Mar 28, 2024

Putin adds Islamist terror to the list of absurd excuses for Ukraine invasion

By Peter Dickinson

In addition to imaginary NATO threats and phantom fascists, Putin has now added Islamist terrorism to the expanding list of absurd excuses for the invasion of Ukraine, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Disinformation

UkraineAlert Apr 9, 2024

Russian Orthodox Church declares “Holy War” against Ukraine and West

By Brian Mefford

The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a remarkable new document that declares a holy war against Ukraine and the wider Western world, writes Brian Mefford.

Civil Society Conflict

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post Ukraine pleads for Patriot air defense systems as Russia destroys power grid appeared first on Atlantic Council.

The proposed legislation would oblige civil society organizations receiving more than 20% of annual funding from sources outside Georgia to openly state that they are “pursuing the interests of a foreign power.” They would be required to register as foreign agents and subjected to extensive additional reporting requirements. Organizations that fail to do so could face large fines.

Critics say the bill is very similar to Russia’s draconian foreign agents legislation, which is widely seen as a tool for the Kremlin to target potential dissidents and silence civil society. The similarities between the law proposed by the Georgian authorities and restrictions already in place inside Russia helped fuel large-scale protests in Tbilisi last year, with many denouncing what they termed as the “Russian law.”

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Renewed efforts to pass last year’s foreign agents bill have sparked fresh debate over Georgia’s future. Opposition groups see the return of the draft law as a further indication of the ruling Georgian Dream party’s intention to steer the country away from Europe and toward Russia. The move comes just months after Georgia achieved a major breakthrough by securing official EU candidate nation status in December 2023.

EU officials voiced “regret” that Georgia’s foreign influence legislation was once again under consideration despite being “unconditionally” withdrawn last year. “Transparency should not be used as an instrument to limit civil society’s capacity to operate freely,” read an EU statement. “We encourage the political leaders in Georgia to adopt and implement reforms that are in line with the stated objective of joining the European Union, as supported by a large majority of Georgia’s citizens.”

The United States also voiced its concerns over the reappearance of the contentious foreign agents law. The largely unchanged draft legislation “undermines Georgia’s commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration and risks pulling Georgia off its European path,” commented US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller.

When officials from the ruling Georgian Dream party first proposed new legislation to curb foreign influence in February 2023, the backlash was so strong that the draft law was ultimately withdrawn from consideration. Thousands rallied against the bill in Tbilisi, leading to clashes with police that generated global headlines.

Criticism also came from a range of international human rights watchdogs. “The foreign agent bill seeks to marginalize and discredit independent, foreign-funded groups and media that serve the wider public interest in Georgia,” commented Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia Director for Human Rights Watch.

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The reintroduction of the foreign agents law ahead of parliamentary elections in October casts a shadow over Georgia’s democratic progress. Critics say this renewed push to pass legislation virtually identical to last year’s abandoned bill is part of the Georgian Dream party’s efforts to silence opponents. They accuse the Georgian authorities of backsliding on the core values underpinning the country’s declared goal of securing a democratic, European future.

These concerns reflect fears over Russian influence. Despite widespread public opposition to Russia’s role in the country, the Georgian Dream party has long faced accusations of seeking to foster closer ties with the Kremlin. Russia continues to occupy approximately 20 percent of Georgia, and has recently announced plans to construct a major naval base on the Black Sea coast in Georgia’s occupied Abkhazia region.

Over the past two years, the Georgian authorities have responded ambiguously to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Georgia has refused to join international sanctions or restrict trade with Russia, while Georgian PM Irakli Garibashvili echoed the Kremlin in May 2023 by claiming NATO enlargement was one of the main reasons for the war in Ukraine. Georgia also recently relaunched direct flights to Russia.

In the coming weeks, Georgia’s revived foreign influence legislation is expected to be reviewed by a parliamentary committee. A new round of protests against the law has already begun in the capital, and could serve as a focal point for opponents of the current authorities. The further passage of the law will reveal much about the Georgian Dream party’s grip on power, while also providing an indication of the country’s future geopolitical trajectory.

Mercedes Sapuppo is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Mar 31, 2024

Ukraine urgently needs air defenses as Russia decimates power grid

By Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti

A new Russian air offensive has destroyed much of Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure in a matter of days and threatens to spark a humanitarian catastrophe if Ukraine does not urgently receive enhanced air defenses, writes Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti.

Conflict Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert Mar 28, 2024

Putin adds Islamist terror to the list of absurd excuses for Ukraine invasion

By Peter Dickinson

In addition to imaginary NATO threats and phantom fascists, Putin has now added Islamist terrorism to the expanding list of absurd excuses for the invasion of Ukraine, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Disinformation

UkraineAlert Apr 3, 2024

Ukraine’s allies divided over drone campaign targeting Russian refineries

By Giorgi Revishvili

Ukraine’s expanding campaign of drone strikes on Russian refineries has inflicted significant damage on Putin’s oil and gas industry while also revealing divisions among Ukraine’s allies, writes Giorgi Revishvili.

Conflict Drones

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post Georgia launches new push to adopt Russian-style foreign agent law appeared first on Atlantic Council.

The latest wave of Russian airstrikes has been notable for its breadth. Virtually every one of Ukraine’s thermal power plants has been hit along with a series of substations. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company, reports that two of its thermal power plants (TPP) are no longer operational, with repairs expected to take several years. A separate plant in Kharkiv has also been seriously damaged and will take years to repair, according to regional authorities.

The specific condition of additional Ukrainian power plants remains classified, but reports of recent blackouts in multiple major cities have underlined the extent of the threat to Ukraine’s power grid. In a move indicating the scale of the damage caused by recent Russian bombing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered an early end to the country’s heating season.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Russian targets in recent days have included the Dnipro Hydroelectric Dam, sparking fears of a possible ecological disaster. The dam itself has not collapsed, but the power plant was partially destroyed and pollutants are now reportedly leaking into the reservoir. Even more worryingly, the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost grid connectivity due to the attack, putting its cooling systems at risk of stopping. Energoatom called the situation “extremely dangerous.”

In a further escalation, Russia has also expanded its air offensive with attacks on Ukraine’s natural gas storage facilities. These facilities, which house large quantities of gas for European customers, had not previously been targeted in earlier Russian bombing campaigns. Although the storage facilities themselves are underground, the pumping stations that allow for the insertion and extraction of gas are not.

On March 24, Russia launched approximately 20 missiles and drones at the Bilche-Volitsko-Ugerskoye storage facility, which represents around half of Ukraine’s total storage capacity. Ukrainian state-owned gas company Naftogaz downplayed the extent of the damage but did acknowledge that repairs would be necessary. Naftogaz officials also sought to reassure European storage customers that all obligations would be met by Ukraine, regardless of the Russian airstrikes.

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The recent wave of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system comes amid reports that the White House has been pressuring Kyiv to stop attacking Russian oil refineries due to concerns about the possible impact on oil prices ahead of the November 2024 US presidential election. Starting in January, Ukraine began a series of long-range drone strikes on refining facilities inside Russia. These attacks have succeeded in hurting Russia’s energy-dependent economy, with disruption reported to oil and oil product exports, gasoline and other fuel supplies in Russia, military fuel supplies, and Russian income from energy exports.

Global prices for crude oil and diesel, as well as other oil products, have risen in the wake of the Ukrainian attacks. This appears to be making US politicians nervous about the potential impact on their country’s forthcoming elections. Unsurprisingly, many in Kyiv have been outraged by the reported US efforts to effectively protect the Russian energy industry at a time when Moscow is bombing Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure and plunging entire cities into darkness. Ukrainian officials have responded by insisting Russian refineries are legitimate targets.

So far, there have been no reports of European leaders seeking to deter Ukraine from attacking Russia’s oil and gas industry, but that could change as the continent faces a range of looming geopolitical and energy market problems. Russia’s gas transit contract with Ukraine is set to expire in December 2024, with the Ukrainian authorities stating they will not seek an extension. With the vulnerability of Ukraine’s gas storage facilities now an issue thanks to recent Russian airstrikes, and with instability in the Middle East making Arabian Gulf LNG both less assured and much more expensive, Europe may soon begin to pressure Ukraine, too.

Each wave of Russian airstrikes makes Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction more challenging while narrowing the options available to the country. Without crucial US military aid that remains held up in Congress, and faced with hypocritical but likely mounting pressure from Western capitals to play nice with Russia on energy infrastructure while Russia decimates Ukraine’s power grid, the path forward is unclear.

Instead of artificial restrictions on their own ability to strike back, Kyiv desperately needs adequate air defense systems so Ukraine can protect its power plants from Russian assaults. In the meantime, the many Ukrainians who are working tirelessly to maintain their country’s battered energy systems have a long road ahead of them.

Suriya Jayanti is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Mar 28, 2024

Putin adds Islamist terror to the list of absurd excuses for Ukraine invasion

By Peter Dickinson

In addition to imaginary NATO threats and phantom fascists, Putin has now added Islamist terrorism to the expanding list of absurd excuses for the invasion of Ukraine, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Disinformation

UkraineAlert Mar 25, 2024

The mood in wartime Ukraine: Weariness, resolve, and exasperation

By Steven Pifer, John Herbst

Ukrainians are war-weary but remain resolved to continue the fight despite growing exasperation with the country’s most important partner, the United States, write Steven Pifer and John Herbst.

Conflict Drones

UkraineAlert Mar 26, 2024

Is the US Congress finally poised to pass Ukraine aid?

By Doug Klain

After almost eight months of deadlock, the US Congress may finally be moving toward a political solution that can unlock desperately needed US aid for Ukraine, writes Doug Klain.

Conflict Defense Industry

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Learn more

The post Ukraine urgently needs air defenses as Russia decimates power grid appeared first on Atlantic Council.

In February 2022, Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, transforming the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War into Europe’s largest and bloodiest since World War II. It should surprise no one that Ukrainians are tiring of sending their husbands, sons, wives, and daughters to spend months at a time on the front lines of the war.

Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone attacks bring the war to civilians in cities across the country. The March 20-21 overnight attack on Kyiv was the heaviest in months. We spent much of that night in a bomb shelter, getting a taste of an experience that is all-too-common for millions of Ukrainians.

At the same time, nothing suggested resolve is flagging. Ukrainians want to win and believe they can. Indeed, they see no alternative in a fight that they regard as existential; if they lose, Ukraine as they know it is gone. Most want full victory, meaning the complete recovery of their territory up to the border agreed when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. That includes the return of Crimea.

We asked about proposals suggested by some in the West who say the United States should press for a negotiation to “save” Ukraine by ceding parts of the country to Russia in exchange for peace. Few Ukrainians expressed interest. They pointed to the war crimes Ukrainians have suffered under Russian occupation and asked how they could abandon anyone to such a fate. Most also felt it would only lead to a short respite, after which a rejuvenated Russian military would resume hostilities.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Ukrainian military officers understand they face a difficult year in 2024. They described Russian pressure along much of the front line, with a particular focus on the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. In September 2022, Putin claimed to annex these regions, even though the Russian military does not control all their territory.

The slowing of assistance, particularly from the United States, has hurt Ukrainian military operations. Ukrainian officers described situations in which their units can only fire one artillery shell for every ten the Russians fire. They lack the means to defend against devastating glide bomb attacks launched by Russian fighter aircraft, and worry that continuing Russian missile and drone attacks will exhaust their air defense capabilities.

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense officials are tracking Russian plans for new combat formations and monitoring a likely mobilization of manpower now that Putin has secured a further term in office. They believe the Kremlin retains broader ambitions in Ukraine including taking Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kyiv.

Despite this, Ukrainian officials are showing no signs of despair. They are fortifying their defensive positions and rushing to put innovative technologies such as advanced drones into action in the field. They question whether the Russians currently have the capacity to make a major breakthrough on the ground. Given enough weapons and ammunition, many Ukrainians remain confident they can reverse Russia’s gains of the past two years.

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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While expressing gratitude for US assistance, Ukrainian officials and others in Kyiv made clear their exasperation on three points.

First, with NATO scheduled to hold a summit in Washington in July 2024, Ukrainians want a definite message on their acceptance into the Alliance, and ideally an invitation. They are looking in particular to the United States, which has the most important voice within NATO. To be sure, Ukrainians are fighting for their country’s survival, but they see that fight as also defending NATO and Europe against a Russian threat that extends beyond Ukraine.

Second, Congress’s failure to pass a supplemental assistance bill for Ukraine has caused a gap in the flow of American assistance that has had an impact on the battlefield. This is reflected, among other things, in higher Ukrainian casualties. Ukrainians have become knowledgeable about how the House works, including the role of the speaker and discharge petitions, but their frustration is palpable.

Third, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Kyiv last week and left Ukrainians clearly unhappy with his request that Ukraine stop targeting oil refineries in Russia. Ukrainians accept, with some annoyance, restrictions limiting the use of US-provided weapons to targets within Ukraine. However, Ukraine uses domestically produced drones to attack Russian refineries, which are legitimate military targets. Thus far, they have struck facilities that produce seven to eight percent of Russia’s refined oil products, and many more are within range of Ukrainian drones.

There are questions about the rationale for the request to stop refinery attacks, which reportedly had to do with the price of oil. Russia mainly exports crude oil, not refined oil products; it is therefore unclear how reducing Russia’s refinery capacity would affect crude exports. As one senior Ukrainian official put it, “stop telling us not to hit targets in Russia.”

We left Kyiv inspired by Ukrainian resilience, courage, and their continued conviction that they can defeat one of the largest military powers on the planet. The United States has a vital national interest in Ukraine’s success. Were Putin and the Kremlin to become emboldened by a win in Ukraine, they would pose a far greater threat to the rest of Europe. The Biden administration and Congress should act without delay to help the Ukrainians prevail.

Steven Pifer and John Herbst served as the third and fifth US ambassadors to Ukraine.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Mar 4, 2024

“Ukraine is Russia”: Medvedev reveals imperial ambitions fueling invasion

By Taras Kuzio

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has underlined the imperialism fueling the invasion of Ukraine by rejecting Ukrainian statehood and declaring “Ukraine is definitely Russia,” writes Taras Kuzio.

Conflict Democratic Transitions

UkraineAlert Mar 14, 2024

Ukraine’s Security Council Secretary: The West is still in denial over Russia

By Peter Dickinson

Western leaders have yet to grasp the true scale of the threat posed by Putin’s Russia and are in danger of suffering an history defeat, warns the Secretary of Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov.

Conflict Disinformation

UkraineAlert Mar 21, 2024

Russian victory in Ukraine would leave Europe at Putin’s mercy

By Mykola Bielieskov

A Russian victory in Ukraine would reinvigorate Putin’s war machine and leave much of Europe at the mercy of the Kremlin, writes Mykola Bielieskov.

Conflict Defense Industry

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post The mood in wartime Ukraine: Weariness, resolve, and exasperation appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Danilov says the lack of faith he encountered among Ukraine’s allies during the first days of the invasion reflects the widespread disinformation that continues to cloud international perceptions of his country’s struggle against resurgent Russian imperialism. With the invasion now in its third year, Danilov warns that many in the West remain in denial over the scale of the threat posed by Putin’s Russia, and have yet to grasp the true international implications of the war in Ukraine.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Danilov has led Ukraine’s influential National Security and Defense Council since October 2019, and has been at the heart of Ukrainian attempts to galvanize international opposition to Russia’s invasion. He readily admits that these efforts have been consistently hampered by Russia’s sophisticated and highly effective disinformation strategies. Looking back at the past two years, Danilov says this experience has underlined the growing importance of information warfare in shaping today’s multidimensional battlefield. “We all make decisions based on the information we have. While there is now an unprecedented amount of information available, it is also apparent that this information can be easily manipulated and distorted.”

Today’s increasingly chaotic and overloaded information landscape is helping Russia conceal its true intentions in Ukraine and disguise its geopolitical ambitions, says Danilov. He frames the ongoing invasion of Ukraine as the central stage in a far broader global confrontation between the democratic world and the resurgent forces of autocracy led by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, but cautions that such clarity is often lacking during his interactions with Ukraine’s Western partners.

The 61-year-old Ukrainian Security Council Secretary bemoans the absence of a modern-day Reagan or Churchill with the necessary vision to see the Russian threat in its true historical context. Unless today’s generation of Western leaders urgently acknowledge the scale of the challenge, he predicts they will soon be confronted by a very different and more hostile international environment. “Too many countries remain stuck in an information fog and do not realize that World War III is already underway. The whole world is engaged in the current war in one way or another, even though Ukraine is the only country doing the actual fighting against Russia.”

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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With no end in sight to Russia’s invasion, the diplomatic debate in many Western capitals currently revolves around the question of Vladimir Putin’s ultimate war aims and how far he is prepared to go. To Danilov, the answer is disarmingly simple: Putin wants to completely transform the geopolitical climate and will keep going until he is stopped. If Ukraine should fall, Danilov is convinced Russia will expand its aggression further. He believes the countries most immediately at risk will be the former member states of the Warsaw Pact. “Putin made his intentions perfectly clear in his December 2021 ultimatum to the West, when he called for NATO to withdraw from Central and Eastern Europe. Just look at the map; it’s all there.”

Returning to the status quo of the early 1990s is unlikely to satisfy the Russian dictator, Danilov says. He argues that Putin’s foreign policy objectives ultimately stretch far beyond the old Iron Curtain and include the breakup of the European Union itself. This would allow Putin to divide and conquer Europe. “One of Putin’s key goals is the destruction of the EU. It is very difficult for the Kremlin to deal with a united Europe; this puts Russia at a significant disadvantage. Putin would much prefer to splinter the EU and negotiate with each European country separately.”

This does not mean Russia is preparing to imminently invade Belgium or occupy Brussels, of course. On the contrary, the Kremlin is far more likely to employ the kind of hybrid warfare tactics honed in Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. Indeed, Danilov argues that Moscow has been engaged in an active campaign of hybrid hostilities inside the European Union for a number of years, and accuses European leaders of turning a blind eye to this unwelcome reality. “Russia’s hybrid war against the EU is already well underway, but some Western countries prefer not to acknowledge it. Putin constantly commits acts of hybrid aggression against Europe, but many Europeans are reluctant to draw the obvious conclusions as this would force them to recognize the threat and respond.”

Putin’s other great strategic priority is the dissolution of NATO. While skeptics argue that the Russian military is currently in no shape to take on NATO, Danilov believes Putin could potentially achieve his goal by discrediting the alliance rather than defeating it in a conventional war. With Western weakness increasingly evident in Ukraine, Putin may seek to test the shaky resolve of NATO leaders by staging some kind of border provocation. According to Danilov, if the alliance fails to produce an adequate response, there is a very real chance that member countries will quickly lose faith in collective security and seek alternative arrangements. NATO may be able to formally survive such a blow, but the damage to its credibility would be fatal. “When you have a maniac on the loose in your neighborhood, the task is to stop him as soon as possible and not engage in negotiations or other nonsense,” Danilov says.

Based on his own extensive interactions with NATO commanders over the past two years, Ukraine’s Security Council Secretary has full confidence in the alliance’s military leadership and believes they are under no illusions regarding both the nature of the Putin regime and urgency of the threat facing the West. However, he also stresses that the same cannot necessarily be said for Europe’s political leaders. This is a recipe for potential disaster, says Danilov. “Putin is the Hitler of our era. The current situation is strikingly similar to the 1930s, when military men warned of the mounting danger but were overruled by politicians who preferred to appease Hitler. If we make the same mistake again, it could mean the eclipse of the West.”

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Feb 20, 2024

Outgunned Ukraine bets on drones as Russian invasion enters third year

By Mykola Bielieskov

As Putin’s invasion passes the two-year mark, tech-savvy Ukraine is betting on drones as the best way to overcome Russia’s increasingly overwhelming advantage in traditional firepower, writes Mykola Bielieskov.

Civil Society Conflict

UkraineAlert Feb 12, 2024

Putin’s history lecture reveals his dreams of a new Russian Empire

By Peter Dickinson

Vladimir Putin turned his hotly anticipated interview with Tucker Carlson into a history lecture that laid bare the dangerous delusions and imperial ambitions driving the invasion of Ukraine, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Disinformation

UkraineAlert Feb 22, 2024

Ukrainian long-range drones target Putin’s war machine inside Russia

By Victoria Vdovychenko, Alexander Khara

Ukraine is hoping a new campaign of long-range drone strikes against Russia’s strategically vital oil and gas industry can help weaken Putin’s war machine, write Victoria Vdovychenko and Alexander Khara.

Conflict Defense Technologies

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post Ukraine’s Security Council Secretary: The West is still in denial over Russia appeared first on Atlantic Council.

This year, as part of International Women’s Day, three women from the Middle East, working toward a more equal world, have been recognized in Time magazine’s annual list of the most influential women. They include Nadia Murad, a Yazidi human rights activist, as well as two women who have formed a historic Israeli-Palestinian partnership: Yael Admi, a co-founder and leader of the Israeli movement Women Wage Peace; and Reem Hajajreh, founder and director of the Palestinian organization Women of the Sun. The one thing they have in common is that, despite their circumstances, they continue to push forward for equal rights.

Nadia Murad is a leading advocate for survivors of genocide and sexual violence. She was captured by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) militants in 2014 and has been outspoken about the horrific abuse she suffered at their hands. In her 2017 memoir, The Last Girl: My Story of Captivity, and My Fight Against the Islamic State, Murad recounts her brutal experience and the heroic reclaiming of her life. She earned a Nobel Peace Prize in 2018 alongside Congolese physician Dr. Denis Mukwege for their efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war. Murad is also the founder of Nadia’s Initiative, an organization dedicated to “helping women and children victimized by genocides, mass atrocities, and human trafficking to heal and rebuild their lives and communities.”

Despite heroes like Murad and Dr. Mukwege, and other international efforts to address these issues, the prevalence of violence against women in conflict remains a harsh reality. Women often bear the brunt of violence during times of conflict, becoming victims of war. That includes sexual violence, displacement, and targeted attacks. Their bodies become weaponized, and the expressions of their tormentors’ rage and dehumanization. The impact of war on women extends beyond direct physical harm, as displacement and breakdown of social structures further expose them to vulnerabilities. Disproportionate suffering is evident in the staggering number of female refugees and internally displaced persons, who often face increased risks of gender-based violence.

This tragic cycle repeated itself on October 7, 2023 with the “systematic, targeted sexual abuse of Israeli women during the Hamas-led assault on southern Israel” aimed at terrorizing and humiliating victims and their families. There is a growing body of evidence of acts of sexual torture—including rape and gang rape, as well as mutilations and gunshots to genital areas—the facts of which have been documented in the recent report of the Association of Rape Crisis Centers in Israel, which was submitted to decision-makers at the United Nations (UN).

Subsequently, there has been a disproportionate impact of war on Palestinian women in Gaza. According to the World Health Organization, women and newborns are bearing the brunt of the conflict, representing 67 percent of all casualties. UN Women has also pointed to gender inequality and the burden on women fleeing the fighting with their children, accounting for 63 percent of all deaths in Gaza. Recently, the UN has also noted credible allegations of both human rights violations and sexual violence against Palestinian women and girls in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

With cruel and almost prescient timing, just three days before the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, some 1,500 Israeli and Palestinian representatives of Women Wage Peace and Women of the Sun descended on Jerusalem and the shores of the Dead Sea, calling for their governments to find a diplomatic solution to the ongoing situation, elevate the role of peacemaking, and stop further violence. The two distinct, yet fully aligned grassroots peace organizations gathered to demand an end to the “cycle of bloodshed” consuming their communities and for their respective leaders to return to the negotiating table to secure a nonviolent resolution to their decades-long conflict.

It was a jubilant affair, but the joy was short-lived. Just three days later, Hamas militants unleashed their massacre, killing some 1,200 people in Israel, including three members of Women Wage Peace, one of whom was co-founder and Canadian-born Vivian Silver. Since then, at least twenty-seven Women of the Sun members in Gaza have been killed.

Despite this horrific backdrop, both organizations continue to forge ahead. They are focused on their respective communities, and they are also dedicated to continuing working together. One of their primary achievements has been the Mothers’ Call, a joint declaration by Palestinian and Israeli women united for a peaceful resolution and a future of peace, freedom, equality, rights, and security for their children and future generations.

As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, their cause is gaining momentum. The two organizations have been jointly nominated for the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize, acknowledging not only that women are unjustly impacted by war, but that they are also part of the solution. According to data published by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, the more women are engaged in peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding, the more peace there is in the world. Negotiations go better, peace is more enduring, and more members of society reap the benefits. 

Women make up 50 percent of the global population, though they are seriously under-represented in areas that have the greatest impact on all members of society. Data show that the more women are included in the economy, education, politics, and the legal system, the more prosperous, peaceful, just, and safe the world will be for children and future generations.

On International Women’s Day this year, the world needs more voices echoing the resounding calls for peace and justice in the face of ongoing conflicts. The international community must acknowledge and support those women who are fighting every day to make a difference. The recognition of Nadia Murad and the collaborative efforts of Yael Admi and Reem Hajajreh underscore the indispensable role women play in shaping a more harmonious world. Their resilience has been tested, but their unwavering commitment persists. As these women stand at the forefront of change, they serve as powerful reminders that women are more than victims of war; they are crucial architects of lasting, peaceful solutions.

Marcy Grossman is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs and former Canadian ambassador to the United Arab Emirates. 

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On February 21st, the Atlantic Council’s WIn Fellowship, in collaboration with United States Embassy to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ADGM, held a workshop exploring how women entrepreneurs in the UAE can integrate innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) to their small and medium enterprises (SMEs).  

The panel, which was moderated by Sarah Saddouk, Director of Innovation at Entrepreneur Middle East IMPACT, featured three successful executives with backgrounds in finance, healthcare, and tech; all have harnessed cutting-edge AI and digital advances to drive their companies forward. Speakers included Abir Habbal, Chief Data and AI Officer at Accenture Middle East; Amnah Ajmal, Executive Vice President for market development for EEMEA at Mastercard; and Salim Chemlal, Director of Product at AI71. Tanya Cole, Senior Commercial Officer at the United States Embassy to the UAE, provided the opening remarks. 

Tanya Cole opened the event with welcome remarks, noting that partnerships like the WIn Fellowship encourage innovation and sustainable growth and undergird the rich commercial exchange between the United States and UAE. She observed that one of AI’s principal benefits for SMEs is enhancing operational efficiency, allowing small teams to allocate time and resources to higher-level work like business strategy. Cole acknowledged initiatives by the United States government to promote greater global representation of women in tech but noted that stronger efforts were needed to promote gender equality in the AI sector. She concluded by encouraging the audience to continue breaking down barriers to women in STEM fields and ensuring that women continue to steer and benefit from the growth of AI. 

The panelists leveraged their experience working with AI to cover several areas of concern for entrepreneurs, such as risk, regulation, scalability, and equity. They identified key trends in its uses across the private sector and provided guidance for SMEs hoping to improve their workflow with AI. The speakers also emphasized the need for women to shape the future of the field. 

Main Takeaways

Amnah Ajmal pushed back on skepticism that recent advances in AI are overestimated, asserting that the increasing accessibility and efficiency of computing power make the technology commercially viable. She highlighted the relevant challenge posed by AI adoption in the private sector: the burden of unlearning and relearning technologies as they evolve and integrate into new fields. Ajmal spotlighted two trends in AI usage she observed among SMEs: risk management centered on combatting scams and fraud, and personalized marketing communications. She stated that the critical edge provided by AI is best understood in terms of scalability and speed, freeing up human capital for other tasks.  

Abir Habbal explained that by keeping abreast of AI advances and integration, actors can actively shape the future of policy and governance around the technology. She distinguished between “narrow AI” capable of single tasks versus “generative AI” capable of multiple tasks at once. The latter is expected to be heavily disruptive; research conducted by her firm indicated that most professions can expect 40 percent of their working hours to be affected by AI. Habbal added that financial services have particularly high potential for AI automation, but opportunities exist in every sector. 

Salim Chemlal mentioned that AI innovation should be propelled forward alongside regulation, rather than waiting for regulation before research continues, as experts have proposed. However, he also advocated for stronger international coordination to ensure AI safety, with a special emphasis on adaptability given the many variables in the field. Amnah Ajmal also offered her thoughts on regulation, proposing that businesses should gather industry stakeholders and experts, define the problem they wish to solve, and build the regulation themselves rather than waiting for a regulator to act. She added that regulators perform a service to society and governments will often embrace the suggested frameworks. Ajmal concluded by noting that traditional financial institutions have failed to uplift SMEs and women entrepreneurs, with all-women teams receiving a maximum of 2.7 percent of global VC funding. 

Abir Habbal turned to the risks of AI and how regulation can help mitigate them. She explained that risks in the field include both structural issues, such as systemic biases and inaccurate results, as well as intentional misuses. With fast-evolving technologies such as AI, regulation may stifle innovation, creating a need for “sandboxes” for advanced testing. The industry’s appetite for regulation stems from a desire to effectively govern AI to manage these risks— and fear of financial and reputational harm if they are not mitigated. Salim Chemlal added that different societies should have their own AI systems, arguing that AI deployed outside of the context it was trained in (such as Western products now used in the Middle East) lack context to adequately serve their current users.  

Amnah Ajmal emphasized that women must challenge the status quo in the AI field. She suggested that women are sometimes apprehensive about engaging deeply with new technologies, and she consequently urges other women in the field to be confident in their abilities. AI is trained on old data, which inherently introduces biases against women. Ajmal gave the example of office thermostats, which when adopted in the 1960s were calibrated for men; women, who radiate 35 percent less body heat, are now often left—literally—in the cold. Women should feel empowered to confidently steer the future of AI to prevent further inequity. Abir Habbal highlighted the coalescence of different skillsets in the AI field, which requires expertise in data science, engineering, business, and design. AI democratization is also on the rise, allowing users from outside the field to access and experiment with AI tools. Ajmal urged novices to utilize publicly available tools to experiment and learn more about AI.  

The Way Forward

There has never been a better time for entrepreneurs in the Emirates to integrate AI into their businesses, owing to the UAE’s growing role as a global hub for AI and the country’s booming SME sector. AI adoption will remain a powerful force in the national economy in the near future, with some forecasts expecting close to 14 percent of Emirati GDP to stem from AI by 2030. Meanwhile, government initiatives continue to promote the growth of small and medium enterprises, with a set target of 1 million SMEs in the country by 2030.  

AI has huge transformational power across sectors, particularly in facilitating speed and scalability. Technology may best serve entrepreneurs by freeing up human input otherwise spent on labor-intensive tasks, such as customer service or targeted marketing. However, adopters should ensure that they have defined a problem that AI can solve, as not all facets of business require automation. The risks inherent to AI, such as biases, malfunctions, and privacy concerns should also be evaluated when considering integration.  

Large scale adoption of AI could worsen global gaps in digital skills between men and women, creating an imperative for women to steer the future of the technology in their country and abroad. Currently only 25 percent of AI specialists and 14 percent of cloud computing specialists are women, demonstrating that much work remains to be done to create a more inclusive field. However, the democratization of AI and the UAE’s SME boom represent an opportunity for women entrepreneurs to both capitalize on the business potential of AI and gain expertise that could positively shape the field. Since AI reflects the input and biases of its maker, better systems will require both diverse architects and inclusive design principles. Women at the helm of successful AI-augmented enterprises will be well positioned to advocate for these changes, resulting in a more equitable future for all.  

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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is not the first conflict to feature unmanned aerial vehicles in significant numbers. Reconnaissance and strike UAVs were employed extensively in eastern Ukraine following the onset of Russian aggression in 2014, and in a range of other combat zones over the past decade including Syria, Libya, and the Second Karabakh War in the southern Caucasus. Nevertheless, the unprecedented numbers of UAVs used by both sides over the past two years in Ukraine has led some to call Russia’s invasion the world’s first drone war.

The ubiquity of drones in Ukraine is leading to dramatic changes on the battlefield. Fleets of UAVs have revolutionized surveillance, making it extremely difficult for commanders to benefit from the element of surprise. This helps to explain why both the Russian and Ukrainian armies are finding it increasingly difficult to mount successful offensives against defensive positions. In addition to dramatically enhancing battlefield visibility, drones also serve as precision strike weapons capable of replicating many of the functions performed by artillery and missiles at only a fraction of the price.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Over the past two years, the Ukrainian military has managed to incorporate drones with considerable success. This has often been done on a somewhat improvised basis, with separate UAV teams independently established as part of different units. Ukraine’s expanding drone capabilities have owed much to public fundraising efforts and contributions from diverse grassroots groups including volunteer networks. Meanwhile, a startup-style drone manufacturing and modification industry has emerged from within Ukraine’s vibrant tech industry.

The results have been impressive. During a single week in early 2024, Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov reported that the country’s drone units had destroyed 73 Russian tanks along with air defense systems, fuel storage depots, and multiple other high-value targets. Longer range drones are now being used to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia including military production sites and energy industry infrastructure. At sea, marine drones have helped break the Russian naval blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and have forced the bulk of Putin’s fleet to retreat from Crimea.

Much of this has been possible thanks to expanding domestic production. According to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, by early 2024 there were approximately 200 companies producing drones in Ukraine, with domestic output around one hundred times higher in 2023 than during the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion. As manufacturing potential continues to expand, Ukrainian officials have set a target of more than one million domestically produced drones in 2024.

Ukraine’s international partners are also focusing their efforts on helping the country stay one step ahead of Russia in the drone war. A coalition of around ten countries recently vowed to deliver one million drones to Ukraine by February 2025, while France is reportedly preparing to provide the Ukrainian military with the latest strike drone models in the coming weeks.

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Ukraine’s newly established Unmanned Systems Force must now manage this highly dynamic drone supply situation while making sure the country’s expanding UAV fleets are deployed effectively in what is a rapidly changing battlefield environment.

The creation of a separate branch of the armed forces dedicated to drones should allow Ukraine to assess developments in a systematic manner and gain an accurate overview of the most effective tactics, making it possible to create something approaching a drone warfare doctrine. This would represent a considerable improvement on today’s somewhat chaotic approach to sharing experience, which often relies on direct communication between individual drone pilots and unit commanders.

The Unmanned Systems Force could take the lead in developing a more coordinated approach to training. At present, many of Ukraine’s UAV training programs are private initiatives that typically offer valuable insights but lack any centrally established standards. Additionally, the new branch can contribute to more effective cooperation with the military industrial complex to make sure Ukrainian manufacturers are focused on producing the kinds of drones the military needs.

Zelenskyy’s decision to establish a specific drone branch of the army also creates a number of potential challenges. Ukraine’s drone warfare evolution over the past two years has often been organic in nature. On many occasions, creative solutions have been implemented with a high degree of operational flexibility by people on the front lines of the conflict. Ukrainian commanders must now make sure efforts to coordinate the country’s drone operations do not blunt this creativity or slow down reaction times by introducing new layers of bureaucracy.

There is also a danger that efforts to fill leadership and training positions within the Unmanned Systems Force could lead to the withdrawal of experienced pilots from the combat zone. One solution might be to prioritize the recruitment of wounded drone operators who are not currently able to serve in front line conditions but have valuable knowledge to share.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned the country into a giant war lab and confirmed the status of drones as the weapons of the future. With Ukraine no longer assured of further military aid from the US and increasingly obliged to ration ammunition, drones are a cost-effective solution that plays to the country’s tech sector strengths. President Zelenskyy and his military leaders clearly recognize this, and will be hoping the new Unmanned Systems Force can help Ukraine maximize its drone potential without becoming a bureaucratic burden.

Mykola Bielieskov is a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at Ukrainian NGO “Come Back Alive.” The views expressed in this article are the author’s personal position and do not reflect the opinions or views of NISS or Come Back Alive.

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If passed, the bill would allow Ukrainians to hold more than one citizenship. This would have significant implications for Ukraine itself and for the large international Ukrainian diaspora. According to the Ukrainian World Congress, the Ukrainian diaspora currently numbers around 20 million people. Most would potentially be eligible for Ukrainian citizenship. Restrictions on dual citizenship have previously deterred many members of the diaspora from applying for Ukrainian passports.

Zelenskyy’s proposal has been welcomed by many within the Ukrainian diaspora. If adopted, it could help strengthen ties between Ukraine itself and the global Ukrainian community, while granting diaspora members an opportunity to have a greater say in Ukraine’s development. It would make it far easier to visit Ukraine and open a business, purchase property, or otherwise invest in the country, while also providing diaspora Ukrainians with the chance to vote in elections or even run for office themselves.

For existing Ukrainian citizens, acquiring a second passport would potentially open multiple doors in terms of travel, work, and study. Ukrainians have enjoyed visa-free access to the European Union’s Schengen Zone for limited time periods since 2017, and have also benefited from a range of measures to ease border restrictions since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Nevertheless, the prospect of holding an EU, US, or other Western passport would certainly appeal to many.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

While there is likely to be considerable public support for Zelenskyy’s dual citizenship proposal, any attempt at implementation in today’s wartime environment could prove highly problematic. Crucially, it remains far from clear what the initiative would mean for military service.

With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now approaching the two-year mark, most analysts believe the conflict has evolved into a war of attrition. With its far larger population, economy, and industrial base, this places Russia at a considerable advantage. The Russian military has also demonstrated a striking disregard for heavy losses in Ukraine, repeatedly employing so-called “human wave” or “meat assault” tactics to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses by sheer weight of numbers.

Ukraine cannot afford to accept such high casualty rates. The country has a far smaller pool of military-age men to draw from, and has already experienced a major decline in population as a direct result of Russia’s invasion. Current martial law restrictions mean most Ukrainian males eligible for military service are not permitted to exit the country. However, if changes to the Ukrainian Constitution made it possible to apply for a second citizenship, opportunities may arise for Ukrainian citizens to use newly acquired passports in order to leave Ukraine and avoid conscription.

Meanwhile, a relaxation in Ukraine’s dual citizenship restrictions could also potentially result in members of the Ukrainian diaspora who took Ukrainian passports becoming eligible for military service. Any uncertainty over the status of new passport holders with regard to conscription would be likely to deter many from applying.

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The issue of military service is currently high on the Ukrainian wartime agenda amid debate over how best to bolster the depleted ranks of the army. A recent proposal by Ukraine’s military chiefs to conscript up to 500,000 civilians has met with a mixed reaction in Kyiv, with Zelenskyy refusing to offer his public support and instead calling for further details before making a decision.

Differences of opinion over the correct approach toward mobilization are believed to have contributed to mounting tensions between Ukraine’s civilian and military leadership. This was widely cited as a contributing factor behind Zelenskyy’s February 8 decision to replace Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny. Any constitutional changes to introduce dual citizenship would further complicate an already challenging and politically sensitive situation.

President Zelenskyy’s proposal to enshrine the right to dual citizenship in the Ukrainian Constitution reflects growing awareness of the important role played by the global Ukrainian diaspora. If implemented, it would probably prove a popular measure that would significantly increase the number of Ukrainian passport holders and provide millions more people with a stake in the country’s future. However, there are a number of practical reasons why progress on this issue remains unlikely in the current wartime conditions.

Mark Temnycky is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. 

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Ukraine’s strong performance in the authoritative anti-corruption ranking places the country alongside Brazil and ahead of fellow EU candidate nations Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey. Meanwhile, Russia continues to lag far behind, having dropped down a further two places in the 2023 index to occupy 141th position with just 26 points.

This year’s result is recognition for Ukraine’s ongoing anti-corruption efforts since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity. On the eve of Ukraine’s landmark pro-democracy uprising, the country languished in 144th place in Transparency International’s annual ranking. Following the Revolution of Dignity, the Ukrainian authorities have taken a number of steps against corruption including establishing a new anti-corruption architecture, embracing digitalization, and conducting ambitious reforms in key sectors such as government procurement, banking, and energy. Success has often been patchy, but the overall picture is one of unmistakable improvement that has allowed Ukraine to climb forty places in the anti-corruption index over the past decade.

Ukraine’s most recent progress is all the more notable as it has taken place amid the existential challenges of Russia’s ongoing invasion. While this has necessitated a range of wartime governance and security measures, anti-corruption efforts have continued. “The active work of Ukraine’s anti-corruption and other public authorities resulted in a growth in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index even during the full-scale war,” Transparency International acknowledged.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Transparency International is not the only international body to positively assess wartime Ukraine’s anti-corruption credentials. The fight against corruption has long been a key issue in relations between Kyiv and Brussels, and has traditionally been viewed as an obstacle to further European integration. However, Ukraine’s reform efforts since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion have helped convince European leaders to grant the country EU candidate status and begin official negotiations on future membership.

Speaking last summer, European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen singled out Ukraine’s efforts to advance the country’s anti-corruption agenda despite facing a uniquely challenging wartime environment. “I must say it is amazing to see how fast and determined Ukraine is implementing these reforms despite the war,” she commented. “They are defending their country and reforming.”

These positive appraisals by Transparency International and the European Union undermine the credibility of attempts by Russia and others to portray Ukraine as hopelessly corrupt. For many years, Kremlin officials and regime propagandists have routinely depicted Ukraine as plagued by endemic corruption. This has been an important element of Moscow’s efforts to discredit Ukraine’s democratic transition, deter international support, and even mute criticism of Russian intervention.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Vladimir Putin himself has often referenced the alleged excesses of Ukrainian corruption in his public speeches. In November 2023, he declared that “corruption in Ukraine is unmatched anywhere in the world.” This ignores the inconvenient reality that Transparency International actually rates Putin’s Russia as significantly more corrupt than Ukraine.

The argument that Ukraine is simply too corrupt to support has also entered the mainstream in the United States, where it is often repeated by opponents of further US military aid. These objections continue, despite unprecedented levels of institutional oversight and successive Pentagon probes confirming no evidence of corruption or the misuse of weapons.

Across the Atlantic, Russia’s few remaining friends in the EU have made strikingly similar claims regarding Ukrainian corruption. In December 2023, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban branded Ukraine as “one of the most corrupt countries in the world” while arguing against Kyiv’s further EU integration. Orban, who is regarded as Putin’s closest European ally, certainly speaks with authority when it comes to corruption. His own country, Hungary, occupied last place among EU member states in this year’s Transparency International ranking.

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In a sense, Ukraine is currently paying the price for the unenviable reputation it earned during the first few decades of independence, when corruption throughout state institutions was a far more pervasive problem than it is today. It is no accident that Ukraine’s two post-Soviet revolutions in 2004 and 2014 were both driven largely by public exasperation over widespread corruption, with millions of Ukrainians taking to the streets to vent their anger. Despite undeniable signs of progress over the past ten years, examples of institutional corruption continue to emerge, keeping the old cliches alive.

With Ukrainians now fighting for national survival and heavily reliant on international support, attitudes toward corruption have hardened further. This is fueling a climate of heightened scrutiny that has led to a series of high-profile scandals since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion. In summer 2023, President Zelenskyy dismissed dozens of regional military enlistment officials on charges of bribery. Perhaps the most prominent scandal involved former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, who was forced to resign following claims of corruption within the ministry. Most recently, Ukraine’s State Security Service detained five people accused of conspiring with Defense Ministry officials to embezzle $40 million meant for the purchase of arms.

While these recent corruption scandals demonstrate that Ukraine still has a long way to go, it is worth emphasizing that they only came to light thanks to the investigative efforts of Ukraine’s own state organs and the country’s vibrant civil society. This vigilance should come as no surprise. After all, nobody is more conscious of their country’s corruption problems than Ukrainians themselves.

There is no doubt that today’s Ukraine continues to face serious corruption challenges. However, depictions of the country as irredeemably corrupt are false and misleading. The real story here is of a nation steadily emerging from centuries of imperial oppression and decades of dysfunction, with the current generation of Ukrainians determined to rid themselves of a corruption culture that is one of the most unwelcome legacies of this troubled past. Indeed, the fight against corruption is widely recognized by Ukrainians as an essential element of their country’s transformation toward a European future.

This year’s Transparency International ranking is a timely reminder that Ukraine is actually making meaningful progress in its historic struggle against corruption. While much remains to be done, the country is clearly moving in the right direction. Ukraine’s international partners are right to expect maximum accountability, but there are currently no grounds for abandoning Ukraine based on claims of corruption that are both exaggerated and outdated.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

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Baba died forty days after Iran’s morality police killed Mahsa Jina Amini in September 2022, an incident that provoked months of nationwide anti-government protests. After years in jail as a political prisoner, losing almost all his friends to a political purge, executions, and soul-shattering isolation, when Iran was tinted red with the blood of its youth, my father’s heart couldn’t take more. He passed away.

I couldn’t even hold his cold hands for one final moment, lie to maman that everything would be alright, and touch the warm earth that embraced baba for the last time. Months later, my mother brought me a fistful of soil from his grave. My share of Iran—where I left my heart.

Days after Amini was killed, Iran-based singer Shervin Hajipour released a hit song, Baraye (“For the sake of”), based on actual tweets written by Iranians. The song captivated the nation and became the de facto anthem of the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising—a love letter to Iran.

Hajipour captured the nation’s heart, and for that crime, he was arrested on September 29, 2022 and accused of “propaganda against the regime” and “inciting violence.” Almost a week after his arrest, he was released on bail as “his case went through the legal process,” according to a state prosecutor. He may have been released from jail, but, in reality, he was placed in a bigger cage and intimidated into silence.

In the following months, people watched him swallow bitter tears while standing tall and unbroken. Many Iranians felt seen by the world and found joy when he won a Grammy award for Best Song For Social Change. But Iranians’ hearts wrenched when he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, “I feel that I am done with this world.” Then hope rekindled in the hearts of Iranians when he wrote a little over a month later, “It took me some time, but I will be back.”

Hajipour delivered on his promise on January 12 with a new hit song that soared high in a few hours. Ashghal (“Trash”) received thirty million views and 1.7 million likes on Instagram—an extremely popular social media platform that is blocked and requires circumvention tools to access in Iran—in less than twenty-four hours after its release.

The track starts with bitter notes of solitude. “I am trash, trash who had no one to even post bail for him.” It continues with reflections on “hearts bleeding,” cut by the hollowness of prominent figures we looked up to and who didn’t show up. Then he lists the ordeal he has endured since his arrest: he has been sidelined and marginalized; refused permission to sing by authorities; and stranded in limbo between courts. But Hajipour follows this up by weaving a new path, thanking friends and family who did not leave his mother alone while he was incarcerated.

Hajipour sings of isolation, of being “thrown away like trash… Yes, we are not the same. But I am staying so you won’t stand alone. I am staying so you wouldn’t say that I bolted. I’m fine with the isolation.”

Hajipour became a star last year, chanting all of the reasons Iranians must stand up against the clerical establishment, resulting in him being labeled as an “outsider,” “enemy,” and less than “trash.” He sings, “I just wanted my town to brim with joy. I just wanted those who see us as enemies to see us as friends. No one loves us here, but God loves everyone, even trash like us.”

He wraps up the song: “Don’t tell me that I should leave my homeland. Wherever I go, my heart will remain here. I stand by my words. The son of Iran stands by his words… I’m trash, but the day you all leave, I will still be here rebuilding my town.”    

‘Ordinary’ people brewing a storm

Hajipour’s 2022 hit song, Baraye, was a tapestry weaved from the dreams and pains of ordinary people posted on Twitter, now known as X, during the early days of the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising and under the Persian language hashtag “For the sake of” (برای#).

Posting Ashghal to his Instagram on January 12, Hajipour wrote that, while writing the earlier track, he didn’t care about the background of people being choked with air pollution, in whose pocket poverty lives rent-free, or who mourns Iran’s ecological collapse more. He continued, “But I knew that ordinary people are the only victims of factional extremism. I knew protest is necessary for evolution; that it is impossible to solve a problem without laying it bare. I knew that we, the ordinary people, also have the right to love our homeland.”

Hajipour continues by taking a jab at political factions who think they have a “monopoly over [our] homeland”—power-hungry politicians so engrossed in petty fights with no care for Iran and its survival; factions who have been at each other’s throats with no care for the lives they trample.

Like his 2022 hit, Hajipour’s latest sensation echoes the pain throbbing in the heart of every “ordinary” person who loves Iran. It also rebirths the hope that “ordinary” people can brew a storm.

Days before Hajipour dropped his new track, Iranian-Kurdish activist Roya Heshmati walked into a security facility with her jet-black hair not covered by the mandatory hijab. Despite pressure from officers, she refused to wear a hijab until she was violently handcuffed and a headscarf was wrapped around her head. She was then administered the lashes.

Under torture, she sang a revolutionary anthem by students from the Tehran University of Art: “In the name of woman, in the name of life, clothes of slavery have been torn, our black night shall lead to dawn, all whips will turn into axes [shattering the throne of oppression].”

Days later, another woman, Sepideh Rashnu, wrote on Instagram about life under gender apartheid, rebellion, loss, and reconciliation with her religious father in their small home village.

Months before the morality police killed Amini, Rashnu was arrested by security forces after a video of her went viral, which showed her resisting a plainclothes hijab enforcer. After arrest, her tortured body was dragged before state television cameras to make a forced confession against herself. Rashnu was subsequently sentenced to three years and eleven months in prison and deprived of the right to an education.

Despite her ordeal, Rashnu has remained defiant. Posting a photo of herself basking in the sunlight with a bright smile, she wrote that “nothing will stop her” and that she is the same person who left her village “sprinting towards the holy land of individuality”; the same person who decided to pay the exorbitant price of rebellion rather than letting her “life turn into a lifeless husk.”

Rashnu concluded that she had returned to her village but had “embraced truth,” which she would “hide from no one,” with “no more running [and] no more fear of confrontation.” She has returned to proclaim, “Glory to gates being broken, and glory to people who break them.”

Defiance trumps fear

In the face of defiance and the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, the Islamic Republic has used every trick in the book to suppress all signs of dissent, from killing hundreds of unarmed protesters on the streets to arresting over twenty-two thousand people, including at least eighty journalists. The long list of detainees, in addition to women defying gender apartheid, consists of other artists, such as musician Mehdi Yarrahi, who has been sentenced to jail and flogging for singing against mandatory hijab, and Saman Yassin, a Kurdish rapper facing charges punishable by death for criticizing the state for its oppressive policies. Dissident rapper Toomaj Salehi is also in prison for his support of protests and for shedding light on torture and abuse in the prisons of the Islamic Republic.

In a message from prison, Toomaj wrote about forcing his broken body off the floor of his prison cell and exercising. “You shouldn’t let them wear you down. I am still alive. I must live! Even if I die, I must live on! I owe this to all who put their trust in me, for the sake of Iran. I have a dream. I must survive.”

According to Amnesty International, at least eight have been “arbitrarily executed following grossly unfair sham trials.” Currently, at least five more are facing death sentences in connection with the 2022 protests, while at least fifteen others are at risk of the death penalty.

The violence has wiped the smiles off the face of society and threatened to extinguish its hope, with many Iranians considering exile and immigration. However, people like Hajipour, Rashnu, and Salehi have rekindled hope within the people.

I left Iran in 2021 and also left my heart behind.  Listening to Ashghal, I molded myself a new heart—mixing that fistful of soil from my father’s grave, love for my homeland, and the hope that inspiring Iranians have rekindled in me. I’m “trash,” but I love Iran.

Khosro Sayeh Isfahani is an advocate, journalist, and Internet researcher with years of experience working in Iran, including work related to the LGBTQI community. 

The post Yes, I’m ‘Trash,’ but I love Iran appeared first on Atlantic Council.

While Saudi Arabia does seek to boost its reputation as part of a broader effort to reform its economy and increase tourism, sportswashing is not the most useful way to analyze Saudi Arabia’s recruitment of top sports talent or its creation of LIV Golf.

Understanding the changes occurring in Saudi Arabia is critical for US policymakers and American companies, especially since more big Saudi sports investments are likely around the corner and Riyadh is part of a changing “middle power” geopolitical landscape. The negotiations around the PGA/LIV merger passed a December 31, 2023 deadline but are continuing, with reports that US investors may join the new entity.

Sports investments as part of the Kingdom’s broader strategy

Saudi Arabia’s big financial bets in the sports world are part of its broader Vision 2030 plan to diversify the economy away from oil, create more private sector jobs for Saudi people (not just expats), and ensure a sustainable future for the Kingdom when the oil eventually runs out.

Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) is highly motivated to achieve the ambitious goals in his Vision 2030. The current war between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to derail MBS’s focus on driving forward his reform and development agenda. Sixty-three percent of Saudi Arabia’s population of over thirty-two million is under the age of thirty, so if the reforms are not successful by the time the oil has run out, the Kingdom will face serious challenges.

MBS is focused on metrics and performance; he said in a September 2023 interview he doesn’t care about sportswashing criticism so long as his strategy yields the results he wants, such as GDP growth.

Sports for All (SFA) is the Saudi government initiative responsible for driving progress on the Vision 2030 targets relating to sports. It was launched in 2018, and it has specific strategies for every age group from young people to older adults. Interestingly, SFA specifically targets housewives of all ages and has released official regulations that require the use of feminine words whenever masculine words are used to ensure sports are presented as open to both men and women. SFA’s goals include: 1) motivating people from all walks of life and at all levels of capability to be healthier, 2) increasing community-wide physical activity level and opportunities to socialize through sports, and 3) working through the private sector to achieve the overall growth in sports and physical activities in the Kingdom.   

As SFA President Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed explains, SFA’s “mandate [is] to have 40 percent of all people in Saudi active by 2030.”

Sports reforms in Saudi Arabia positively impact regular people, especially women

Many Americans still associate Saudi Arabia with three things: the September 11 terrorist attacks, its war in Yemen, and the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Many also rightly have serious concerns about Saudi Arabia’s human rights record. So it’s unsurprising that when Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), wanted to buy the PGA in June 2023, the US public reaction was to connect this to what it knows of the Kingdom. Considering how lasting those negative associations have been, it’s difficult to imagine how an investment in a US sports tournament could “wash” that away.

If you ask Saudis, especially women, about why their government is investing in sports, what you may also hear is that it has opened a pathway to health, fitness, and careers unimaginable a decade ago. For others, it provides opportunities to children their parents didn’t have, including exercising in school. And for many—young and old—it’s cultivating a sense of personal aspiration and civic pride as they watch their national teams compete.

When Saudi first licensed gyms for women in 2017, 40-year-old Sara Rahimaldeen was one of the first to join. As a young mom to two children, she wanted to do something to “regain her energy,” as she told one of us. Six years later, Sara now trains as a competitive athlete and has a career as a coach and personal trainer. “Now I’m changing people’s lives just as my life was changed,” Sara said.

In 2017, the right to obtain driver’s licenses opened up opportunities for female Saudi athletes. Two years later, Reema Juffali, the first Saudi woman to hold a racing license, participated in an international racing competition hosted in the country. In 2020, Saudi Arabia hosted its first professional international golf tournament—the Ladies European Tour—where Saudi women played alongside international female players. “Before we could drive, we had to go out to the outside of the city at four in the morning to run,” Sara recalled. “And it was so difficult to convince someone to take us.” Now, the government organizes public marathons through the recently launched triathlon federation, where men and women run in the streets side by side.  

The same year that local municipalities issued business licenses for women’s gyms, the Education Ministry allowed physical education in schools for girls and boys. Kevin Kerns, a former American tennis player who competed in the US Open, recently started teaching tennis at schools across Saudi Arabia. He initially launched the tennis training program in thirty schools and expects to roll it out to 290 schools this year, reaching over 70,000 kids. “Tennis is more than a sport. It teaches goal setting, how to work with others, and life lessons on winning and learning. We’re teaching kids to engage in sports for a lifetime,” explained Kevin to one of us.

Changing geopolitical reality and the need for a new US approach

The United States needs to recalibrate its approach to middle powers such as Saudi Arabia to take into consideration new geopolitical and domestic political dynamics. As the United States faces more competition from China and from middle powers banding together in blocs such as BRICS—which Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recently joined—it needs to recognize that trade-offs will be the new normal for successful US strategy.

Saudi Arabia’s sports investments are a useful case study of how the United States needs to alter its policy approach. Here are the critical elements of a new way forward:

• The US government and human rights organizations criticized the Kingdom in the past for preventing girls from playing sports and not permitting women to work out at gyms. Saudi Arabia has radically changed its approach: gyms that allow women now abound; girls now play sports in school; and Saudi women athletes are competing internationally. The United States should see Saudi investment in sports as part of a broader win for millions of Saudi women and girls—not to mention men—in terms of personal freedom, health, and leadership development.
• Sports can be a way to bridge divides, organize collaboratively, develop people-to-people networks, and improve business and government relations. This includes continuing to fund sports diplomacy programs through the State Department to train coaches and referees, as well as sharing American expertise on nutrition, sports psychology, and the entertainment infrastructure needed to support sports, to name just a few areas where partnerships can take place. These types of partnerships can be good for American companies and can also nurture important relationships that can impact societal change.
• The United States often tells Saudi Arabia and other middle powers what it doesn’t want them to do. Lately, growing close to China has been a major concern. Situations—like the potential investment in the PGA Tour—where Saudi Arabia is seeking a partnership that China cannot offer and that does not harm US national security interests or go against US values should be seen as a win for the United States and an opportunity to lead.
• The United States needs to consider the self-interested motives of countries rather than viewing every policy decision as a referendum on its relationship with the United States. The Kingdom saw golf as a sport ripe for a shake-up and knew, with their deep pockets, that they were well-positioned to make a move that could help them achieve their broader tourism and entertainment development goals. It’s not all about the United States: Saudi Arabia is considering similar investments in countries such as India, where PIF has “expressed an interest” in acquiring a multi-billion dollar stake in a major cricket league.
• Saudi Arabia will be more persuaded by arguments that speak to their national interests rather than appeals to follow international norms or threats about withdrawing American support. Human rights violations reduce the appetite for foreign investment and association with the Kingdom. American companies and government officials can remind Saudi counterparts of the potential reputational and economic consequences if they commit such abuses. US negotiators working with PIF on the merger should also emphasize the massive negative blowback that would occur if golfers are prevented from speaking their minds or if other controversial restrictions are put in place. To avoid these issues, US negotiators should also ensure a strong governance structure for the new golf entity.

If Americans persist in seeing Saudi sports investments primarily as “sportswashing,” they will be scoring own goals. The Saudis will not end their investments in this sector or in many other sectors of the US economy, such as the 60 percent stake it holds in Lucid Motors or its significant investments in Activision Blizzard and Uber. Instead, US-Saudi tensions will cause rifts among athletes, sponsors, and fans, and may preclude cooperation that could be a win-win.

Sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf have over $5 trillion in assets, with expected upward growth continuing. If the United States wants to encourage more investment in US companies and global infrastructure projects—as the Joe Biden administration reportedly does—it is essential to understand the multifaceted motivations of these countries, as well as the human and economic potential of their citizens rather than relying solely on past negative tropes.  

The PGA Tour contends that LIV Golf would have eventually run them out of business if a deal with PIF had not been reached. Saudi Arabia is flexing its sports investment muscles globally and playing the long game, like when it was the only bidder for the 2034 World Cup. Negotiating partnerships on sports that both sides can live with is an example of the kinds of trade-offs that the United States should accept to achieve its broader national security goals in this volatile, multi-polar world.

Stefanie Hausheer Ali is a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council and a senior director at the international strategic advisory firm Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC. The information in this article represents the views and opinions of the author and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC. 

Jaime Stansbury is a vice president at The Cohen Group and was formerly the executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia. The opinions and characterizations in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of The Cohen Group.

The post The real reason the Saudi government is investing in sports. Hint: It’s not to impress you. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

On January 17, Imran Bayoumi, Associate Director of the Scowcroft Security Initiative, was quoted by The New York Times DealBook newsletter on one of the six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024, a super-reflective white paint that can reflect 98% of sunlight, lowering air-conditioning needs and emissions.

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Imran Bayoumi

Associate Director

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The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.

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The post Bayoumi in The New York Times on a paint that can reduce emissions appeared first on Atlantic Council.

On January 14, Transatlantic Security Initiative senior fellow Elisabeth Braw was featured in the Center for European Policy Analysis’ Europe Edge, where she discussed Russia’s malign influence campaigns and how European nations are crafting their responses to combat their influence.

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Elisabeth Braw

Senior Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Transatlantic Security Initiative

NATO Resilience & Society

The Transatlantic Security Initiative, in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, shapes and influences the debate on the greatest security challenges facing the North Atlantic Alliance and its key partners.

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The post Braw featured in CEPA’s Europe Edge on criminalizing Russia’s propaganda machine appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Signs of ordinary everyday life in wartime Ukraine are a reflection of the remarkable resilience demonstrated by Ukrainians since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion almost two years ago. This normality is also due to the little-noticed fact that the Ukrainian economy did surprisingly well in 2023.

Ukraine’s strong economic performance is reflected in recent EU and IMF assessments. These traditionally harsh reviews now read like love letters. “Despite the war, the country has benefited from a stronger-than-expected recovery and steadfast reform momentum,” noted the IMF in an entirely typical December 2023 summary.

The Russian invasion drove Ukraine’s GDP down by 29 percent in 2022, but in 2023 the economy grew by 19.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter and by 9.5 percent in the third quarter. Rather than an expected stabilization, Ukraine is likely to achieve annual economic growth of nearly 6 percent in 2023. Admittedly, that still means a decline of around 25 percent from the prewar level in 2021. However, given the scale of the destruction caused by the Russian invasion and the fact that Russia still occupies around 17 percent of Ukraine’s territory, these figures are nevertheless impressive.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

In the fall of 2022, many were concerned by the threat of rising inflation in Ukraine due to the EU’s failure to meet its commitments. Ukraine was forced to print money, and inflation rose to 27 percent in December 2022. The European Commission took heed and secured $20 billion in financing for 2023, covering around half of Ukraine’s budget requirements. The United States contributed another $10.9 billion, with the IMF providing $4.5 billion. In the end, Ukraine’s budget deficit of some $40 billion was more than financed. As a consequence, inflation plummeted to just five percent by October 2023.

Ukraine had budgeted for foreign financing of $41 billion in 2024, but as foreign funds may fall short, the country’s finance minister has suggested a revision down to $37 billion, not least because of greater than expected tax revenues. This revised figure may be realistic. The IMF noted that tax collections were up by 23 percent year-on-year in January-September 2023.

Usually, a country with an IMF program fails on some accounts, but that was not true of Ukraine in 2023. The IMF confirmed that Ukraine had met all quantitative performance criteria as well as all indicative targets by the end of September, and had done so with big margins, having collected much more in taxes than anticipated, while social spending continued as planned. Despite wartime conditions, Ukraine has not yet suffered from any arrears in state sector wages or pensions.

Ukraine’s National Bank has done particularly well since the start of Russia’s invasion. While inflation in Russia is currently around 7.5 percent, Ukraine’s rate has fallen to five percent. Ukraine recently cut its interest rate from 16 percent to 15 percent, while the Central Bank of Russia did the opposite.

Ukraine is maintaining a relatively open currency market with a floating exchange rate that held relatively stable throughout 2023. Ukraine’s international currency reserves are currently higher than they have ever been, at around $40 billion. The country’s banking system functions surprisingly normally. According to a recent IMF report, Ukraine’s total banking system assets and client deposits increased by 36 percent and 51 percent respectively between the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion and August 2023. Ukraine’s banks are flush with money and offer ample and cheap credits.

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

Conflict Russia Security & Defense Ukraine

Remarkably, Ukraine has carried out more systemic reforms than ever during the war. These reforms have been driven by the EU and the IMF, with keen support from the United States and the G7 group of nations.

On December 14, 2023, the EU decided to open membership negotiations with Ukraine. This landmark decision was based on Ukraine having fulfilled seven vital conditions set by the EU in June 2022. Four concerned the rule of law, while three were political. The most important conditions were the cleansing of the notoriously corrupt Constitutional Court and the similarly deficient Supreme Council of Justice, which appoints Ukraine’s judges. These steps are among the most important rule of law reforms ever implemented in Ukraine.

The EU appears to have learned from its excessively lenient earlier policies toward Bulgaria and Romania. Brussels now demands specific changes and details them. Ukraine has complied with all its demands, with President Zelenskyy signing off on the last three laws the week before the EU convened in December 2023.

In its most recent assessment, the IMF stated that the Ukrainian authorities had demonstrated “a strong commitment to reforms.” It noted that the authorities met seven of the 12 structural benchmarks for June-October 2023 on time, while four benchmarks were implemented with delays under very difficult circumstances. These were significant reforms related to corporate governance and anti-corruption measures. The law restoring asset declarations for public officials was enacted in October and public access to asset declarations was reinstated. Meanwhile, money-laundering legislation was tightened. The IMF’s key remaining demand is to render the special anti-corruption prosecutor truly independent from the prosecutor general.

Despite wartime conditions, the Ukrainian authorities are performing better than expected, both in terms of daily financial administration and advancing the country’s reform agenda. Higher than anticipated tax revenues are being collected, with pensions and wages so far paid on time. The nation’s currency reserves are larger than ever, and inflation has been brought down to five percent. Quietly, Ukraine has finally carried out important and politically challenging rule of law reforms. The Ukrainian government is to be congratulated for its considerable accomplishments on the economic front while defending itself against Europe’s largest invasion since World War II.

Anders Åslund is the author of “Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy.”

Further reading

UkraineAlert Dec 21, 2023

Putin scents historic victory amid growing signs of Western weakness

By Peter Dickinson

Recent indications of growing Russian confidence in victory over Ukraine owe much more to Western weakness than to the Kremlin’s own military might, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert Dec 20, 2023

Ukrainian telecoms hack highlights cyber dangers of Russia’s invasion

By Mercedes Sapuppo

An unprecedented December 12 cyber attack on Ukraine’s largest telecoms operator Kyivstar left tens of millions of Ukrainians without mobile services and underlined the cyber warfare potential of Russia’s ongoing invasion, writes Mercedes Sapuppo.

Conflict Cybersecurity

UkraineAlert Dec 19, 2023

Ukraine’s EU accession process faces bureaucratic and political hurdles

By James Batchik

The European Council’s recent decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine was a momentous moment both for Kyiv and the European Union. Now the serious work begins, writes James Batchik.

Civil Society Conflict

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post Ukraine’s wartime economy is performing surprisingly well appeared first on Atlantic Council.

As news emerged of what was widely viewed in Ukraine as an historic breakthrough, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy led the country’s celebrations. In a series of social media posts, Zelenskyy said the decision to begin EU membership talks was a victory for Ukraine and for all Europe. “History is made by those who don’t get tired of fighting for freedom,” he commented.

Senior European Union officials in Brussels also shared in the celebratory mood. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who long been a vocal candidate of closer EU ties with Ukraine, said the step to open membership talks was “a strategic decision and a day that will remain engraved in the history of our Union.”

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

The news from Brussels has provided Ukrainians with some timely cheer amid mounting gloom due to the military stalemate in the war with Russia and signs of a weakening in Western resolve to continue backing Ukraine into 2024 and beyond. In recent months, a major new US aid package for Ukraine has become hostage to domestic politics, while internal divisions have emerged within the EU over ambitious plans to provide Ukraine with a long-term support program. Meanwhile, pledges of new aid from Ukraine’s international partners have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the Russian invasion.

These negative signals have caused considerable alarm among Ukrainian audiences, and have fueled a wave of international speculation over the potentially disastrous consequences of a Russian victory if Ukraine is abandoned. Meanwhile, the mood in Moscow has become increasingly jubilant, with Putin boasting recently that Ukraine would have “one week to live” if Western military aid came to a halt.

The EU’s decision will significantly alter the optics around the Russian invasion while providing new impetus to Ukraine’s war effort. While the start of accession negotiations does not come with any guarantees of future EU membership, it represents a major milestone for Ukraine in a geopolitical reformation that first began decades ago and has gained unprecedented momentum against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion.

Since 1991, all of independent Ukraine’s political leaders have paid lip service to the country’s European identity. However, during the early years of independence, almost nothing was done to promote Ukraine’s EU integration. This lack of progress was highlighted in 2002 when European Commission President Romano Prodi suggested Ukraine was about as plausible a candidate for EU membership as New Zealand.

Things changed in 2004 when millions of Ukrainians took to the streets to protest a rigged presidential election and defend their country’s fledgling democracy. The Orange Revolution was to prove a watershed moment for Ukraine and the wider post-Soviet region. It marked an ideological parting of the ways with Putin’s increasingly authoritarian Russia, while putting Ukrainian integration on the EU agenda for the first time.

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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In the years following the Orange Revolution, Kyiv and Brussels began negotiating a comprehensive EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. By the time this document was finally ready, pro-Kremlin politician Viktor Yanukovych had become president of Ukraine. Despite favoring closer ties with Moscow, Yanukovych had made an election campaign promise to maintain Ukraine’s European integration. However, just days before he was set to sign the Association Agreement, Russia pressured Yanukovych into a dramatic U-turn. This rejection sparked a repeat of Ukraine’s 2004 street protests. After months of heavy-handed crackdowns including the killing of dozens of protesters, Yanukovych was eventually deserted by his Ukrainian allies and fled to Russia. Days later, Russian troops began the invasion of Ukraine with the seizure of Crimea.

The war unleashed by Vladimir Putin in February 2014 has driven Ukrainian support for EU integration to record highs. Prior to 2014, opinion polls often identified similar levels of Ukrainian public backing for closer ties with both Russia and the European Union. However, the past decade of escalating Russian aggression has drastically reduced any lingering enthusiasm for a return to the Kremlin orbit. Instead, recent surveys consistently indicate that around eighty percent of Ukrainians back EU membership. This shift in opinion is mirrored across the EU, where support for future Ukrainian membership has grown considerably since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Over the past decade, Ukraine’s EU aspirations have come to represent the country’s dreams of a national transformation away from the authoritarian past and toward a democratic, European future. Russia’s increasingly violent response to these aspirations has served to convince more and more Ukrainians of the need to turn decisively away from Moscow and pursue EU membership.

This sentiment is now shared by a clear majority of European leaders, who have reached the conclusion that Ukraine can no longer remain in the geopolitical grey zone and must instead be integrated into the EU. The road ahead toward eventual membership remains long and challenging, but today’s decision is a big win for Ukrainians and a huge moment in Ukraine’s historic return to the European community of nations.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Nov 28, 2023

Putin debunks his own propaganda by disarming Russia’s NATO borders

By Peter Dickinson

Putin publicly blames NATO for provoking the invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s recent demilitarization of the country’s borders with neighboring NATO members makes a mockery of such claims, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Democratic Transitions

UkraineAlert Dec 5, 2023

2023 review: Ukraine scores key victories in the Battle of the Black Sea

By Oleksiy Goncharenko

The front lines of the Russian invasion in Ukraine have barely moved in 2023, but Ukraine has had far more success in the Black Sea, where it has broken Russia’s blockade and forced Putin’s fleet to retreat from Crimea, writes Oleksiy Goncharenko.

Conflict Drones

UkraineAlert Dec 5, 2023

Fake history is a crucial weapon in Vladimir Putin’s bid to destroy Ukraine

By Ihor Smeshko

The invading Russian army is not the only enemy Ukraine faces; the Kremlin propaganda and false historical narratives that drive and justify the invasion are arguably just as deadly, writes Ihor Smeshko.

Conflict Disinformation

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post Historic breakthrough for Ukraine as EU agrees to begin membership talks appeared first on Atlantic Council.

After fourteen days in the desert, it ended with a “beginning.” On Wednesday, the 2023 United Nations Climate Conference in Dubai, also known as COP28, concluded with nearly two hundred countries agreeing to “transition” away from fossil fuels. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell called the decision the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. But the agreement text was only one of many outcomes from the conference, including the activation of the loss and damage fund and pledges to abate methane emissions and triple renewable energy. Below, Atlantic Council experts who were on the ground in Dubai share their insights on the agreement and the road ahead.

• Jorge Gastelumendi (@Gasteluj): Director of global policy at the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center and former climate negotiator for the government of Peru

• Landon Derentz (@Landon_Derentz): Senior director of the Global Energy Center and former director for energy on the US National Security Council

• Aubrey Hruby (@aubreyhruby): Nonresident senior fellow at the Africa Center and co-founder of Tofino Capital

• Racha Helwa (@rachahelwa): Director of the empowerME Initiative

No ‘phase-down’ or ‘phaseout’

• The compromise agreement to transition away from fossil fuels was “commendable,” Jorge tells us, but the lack of a timeline for attaining this goal “puts the world at risk of crossing the 1.5 °C warming threshold, significantly increasing the risks and impacts of climate change.”

• At the same time, “the ‘success’ of COP28 was never going to be measured by unrealistic expectations around phasing out fossil fuels,” says Landon.

• Among the opponents of “phaseout” language were African nations. Aubrey points out that this is because they “need to be able to harness their fossil fuel resources, namely natural gas, in order to provide electricity to the six hundred million” people on the continent who lack reliable access.

• But for others, the compromise was a deep disappointment. The decision “evoked widespread frustration, notably among the small island developing states, indigenous communities, and climate activists,” Racha says.

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 Big wins

• The compromise over fossil fuel use overshadowed what COP28 had already accomplished, says Landon: pledges on renewable energy capacity expansion, energy efficiency, and methane reduction that add up to “a global reduction in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 of around four gigatons of CO2 equivalent.”

• And in a larger sense, Landon adds, the cooperation of governments and businesses means that “the fabric” of these conferences “has been permanently altered.” A senior European official attending the conference told Landon that “COP is the ‘new Davos’ for the energy transition.”

• That spirit came in the increased climate commitments from industry. “We have seen at COP28 an unprecedented participation of the private sector not only in numbers but also in real leadership,” Jorge tells us, “taking on actions and measurable commitments in the energy, insurance, and banking sectors, among many others.”

• African countries were able to achieve most of their pre-COP checklist, Aubrey notes: These include the launch of the loss and damage fund, $175 million in pledges to the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa, and the Declaration on Climate and Health.

Room for improvement

• But the agreement lacks quantifiable targets or substantial financial aid for adaptation, says Jorge, meaning it falls short of the “pivotal moment we need as a global community to bring climate adaptation from being a second-tier priority in the climate process” to being prioritized equally with mitigation.

• Protests throughout the conference, including that of twelve-year-old Indian climate activist Licypriya Kangujam, “highlighted concerns about the influence of oil businesses on climate equity and resilience,” and encapsulated “the perspective of the upcoming generation from the Global South regarding the outcomes of this COP,” writes Racha.

• Zooming out, the goal now for governments, activists, and industry should be to make sure that these promises don’t end up as just hot air. “Global meetings alone do little to change the economic and climate realities on the ground in African countries,” Aubrey tells us. “Pledges must become reality.”

The post The final report card for COP28 appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Public Event Tue, December 12, 2023 • 9:00 am ET

AfriNEXT

The Atlantic Council and global development company DAI convened high-level experts to reframe the narrative on African successes and innovation.

Africa

Event transcript

Uncorrected transcript: Check against delivery

Speakers

Ousman Gajigo
Director, Seeds for Prosperity

Lilac Nachum
Professor, the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College and Strathmore University Business School

Jehiel Oliver
Chief Executive Officer, Hello Tractor

Moderator

Rama Yade
Senior Director, Africa Center, Atlantic Council

RAMA YADE: So welcome to this important conversation panel about “The Agribusiness Revolution.” Agriculture should be at the heart of any development policy. When it comes to feeding people on the continent, the continent of food insecurity, this is not an outdated sector. Agriculture is an—the economic sector of the future.

Like I said this morning, 65 percent of the world’s untapped arable lands are on the continent. [The] agriculture sector is 35 percent of the [continent’s] GDP. It’s also 60 percent of the active population. Yet, food insecurity has increased. As a result of the war in Ukraine, prices of food, of production, of gasoline, of fertilizers, all the prices have surged, not to mention the extreme weather conditions combined with the weak local infrastructure—not to mention, as well, the levels of productivity, among the lowest.

On a continent where the population will double by 2050, you can imagine how the stakes are high here. And consequently, we are here today to discuss—not to discuss humanitarian assistance or short-view solutions. We are not here to debate about food security, but about food sovereignty—how Africa can feed itself and feed the world.

So I’m happy to welcome our three panelists today.

Our first panelist is virtual, Professor Lilac Nachum. She’s a professor of international business at City University New York. She’s also a visiting professor at Strathmore Business School in Kenya. Welcome, Professor Nachum.

We have also virtually Jehiel Oliver, who is the founder and CEO of Hello Tractor, an agricultural technology company that connects tractor owners with smallholder farmers. Welcome, Jehiel.

And on the stage with me, Ousman Gajigo, who is director of Seeds for Prosperity. You are a former African Development Bank manager and now at the head of this new nonprofit foundation with the goal of sustainability, improving food security in the—in the Gambia, right? And you focus on—your work focuses on vegetable gardens in rural areas in a country—a coastal country already impacted by climate change.

So we are going to discuss the extraordinary potential of the African agricultural sector, as well as the innovation being pursued in agribusiness and agritech on the continent first. And I would like to ask Professor Nachum the first question.

Professor Nachum, you published—and that’s how we met—a few months ago, earlier this year, a remarkable piece called “Africa’s Agribusiness Sector Should Drive The Continent Economic Development: Five Reasons Why.” Can you share with the audience those five reasons why Africa’s agribusiness sector should drive the continent’s development?

LILAC NACHUM: Thank you, Ambassador. It’s really a pleasure and an honor to be here.

You’ve set up the stage so beautifully by suggesting that such a large part of Africa’s population makes a living out of agribusiness and such a large share of African economies are derived from agribusiness. In parallel, the agribusiness sector of Africa is extremely underdeveloped. By all measures that we could think of it lags behind the rest of the world.

One issue that Mr. Oliver seemed to try to address, the use of machines, is just the lowest in Africa than in the world. The size of farms [is] the smallest in Africa than the rest of the world. The labor productivity in agribusiness is the lowest in Africa that—compared to the rest of the world.

So there is really—the need for food security the ambassador mentioned… I cannot agree more to this, and I’m very glad that she brings this up and places it at the center of our discussion. But simply for Africa to develop we must address the issues related to agribusiness and must upgrade and upscale the agribusiness sector.

So I think the major reason for this is that I don’t think that Africa will follow the standard process of industrialization and economic development that we have seen have worked quite effectively in other parts of the world, most lately in Asia but also previously in other parts of the world, because whereby countries move for agribusiness—low-productivity agribusiness into manufacturing and from there to services, well, this is not happening in Africa so far. And we are seeing that to the extent that people move away from agribusiness, and we have seen some movement away from agribusiness, they shift—they jump over manufacturing and are all over to—and this is not a healthy path to economic development because services do not have the ability to raise millions of people out of poverty as we’ve seen in manufacturing.

But I think—beyond that I don’t think that the manufacturing-based industrialization model is suitable for Africa and is aligned with Africa’s comparative advantages and disadvantages. I think we do need a distinctive path for Africa. There’s so much that is distinctive about Africa and it calls for a distinctive path for economic development.

And then this should be based on agribusiness and should start from agribusiness and lift agribusiness up and develop the agribusiness sector.

Now, there are three key aspects that need to happen in order for—that need to take place in order for this to happen. The first is consolidation and scaling up. As I mentioned, the size of African farms is by far the smallest in the world.

Most African farmers are substantive level. They’re not—they’re producing in ancient technologies because the size does not justify investment in more advanced technology. So upscaling is one.

The second is upgrading, which means to raise the level of productivity and move up along the supply chain from the providers of the lowest value-added activities in supply chain—basically the raw material and the fresh produce—and engage in some processing of these raw [materials] in order to upscale and move up the supply chain.

And the third and last one is export, and we have now the Africa that really signified enormous breakthrough to Africa and the opportunities that it [offers]. But Africa is a continent of fifty-five countries. Most of them are very small, fewer than ten million people. So that could not support large-scale development of the agribusiness.

There is a need, an urgent need, to export, export in Africa and export to the rest of the world.

RAMA YADE: Thank you, Professor.

LILAC NACHUM: Thank you. Over to you.

RAMA YADE: Yeah. One, you mentioned this, I mean, merging between agriculture and business. You can understand that many people may be worried, especially the smallholder farmers in Africa who don’t maybe have the means to follow this strategy you just described.

How—and I would like here to ask the next question to—on the stage here to Ousman Gajigo, director of Seeds for Prosperity.

My first question is how can you make compatible this agribusiness strategy with development needs when it comes to the smallholder farmers?

OUSMAN GAJIGO: Thank you. Actually, I think there is no tension or contradiction here. There’s actually a lot of—I mean, development and what the professor is expressing, there’s a lot of, you know, compatibility here. She’s absolutely correct that in—you know, you have many small farms in Africa. I come from a small country that is densely[populated]. So that’s high population density, land is at a premium, so land size is the limiting resource. So if every farm is working in a fragmented piece of land, you know, it’s difficult how certain kinds of technology can be used. But that, you know—you know, it—one would have to really—you know, we’ll have to fail to use our imaginations if we actually think that as a failure, because you could have cooperatives. These are—there are successful models where you can—even small-scale farmers can get together and still take advantage of technology.

And also, these are opportunities that present themself. When you have a small—you know, small farmlands, fragmented piece of, you know, farmlands, you don’t have to give up—you know, drop your hands; you could actually say, OK, instead of focusing on, you know, traditional food crops or cereals that require a large amount of land, how about high-value crops that can be grown on even small quantities of land? So these are opportunities where even small-scale farmers, those that are living in very remote areas, could be supported.

And when you—she’s also absolutely correct in saying that, you know, the situation we see right now where you have a lot of people leaving agriculture, skipping—economy skipping manufacturing and industrialization, going straight to services, it’s not really a recipe for sustainable development. And I think here you have a situation where investing in agriculture and having industrialization are actually compatible, because in order to have processing or manufacturing you need to have high productivity in agriculture to ensure that there is surplus, a reliable supply, and at, you know, high acceptable quality. And that can only happen when you have, you know, investments in agriculture, because you cannot have a viable industrial sector where inputs that are required are, you know—are not in high supply—I mean are not in, you know, sufficient supply and at high cost. Because when you have high-cost manufacturing, you will not be competitive. So having development and also having investment in agriculture, these are actually very compatible.

RAMA YADE: Mmm hmm. Speaking of which, you mentioned restoration of lost crops like one of the tools that could be used. And a few days ago in Dubai, far from here at the COP28, the Africa Center welcomed Chef Pierre Thiam, who is working to restore these lost crops. And you mentioned also cooperatives that can play a role for the small farmers. There’s also digital. And here I would like to ask Jehiel Oliver here, who is the founder and CEO of Hello Tractor, about agritech. I said earlier that your company is a technology company that connects tractor owners with small farmers. So how can—

JEHIEL OLIVER: Correct.

RAMA YADE: How can—tell us—tell us more about your work and how these two worlds can work together.

JEHIEL OLIVER: Well, I think Hello Tractor as a business cuts across many of the themes that were already mentioned by the other panelists. Our business is enabled by last-mile coordination of smallholders’ demand for equipment to increase productivity of labor, to increase profitability, to ensure smallholder farmers plant on time, intensify land under cultivation to grow their profitability. And that’s enabled through technology.

But at the very core of our business model is a very simple concept, which is, you know, the most important factor of production in agriculture is fertile land, water, sun, right? And in our business, we have across these smallholder farming systems an abundance of all three, but they need to be organized. You cannot have a small one-acre farmer owning a tractor, and you certainly can’t expect a small one-acre farmer to book tractor services even through technology like what we offer at Hello Tractor and expect the tractor owner to drive that machinery a hundred kilometers to service that one plot. But through organization, sometimes through co-ops, or sometimes organic formation of demand clusters, you can reach economies of scale so that a group of farmers—maybe a hundred farmers booking for 150, 200 acres of land—is very attractive to a machine owner.

And we use a variety of technologies to enable that transaction. We have a tractor fleet owner application that we built natively so farm equipment owners… feel comfortable sending it to far-off places, and knowing exactly what it’s doing, and making sure the operator is not defrauding them or stealing fuel or underreporting work. And you know, we have a booking application that community-based agents can use to organize those demand clusters, transparently book that demand with satellite images of the farmers’ fields to see exactly the condition of the fields, location… All of the information that you need to de-risk that decision to send your tractor to that far-off place, that is made available in the application.

But what’s enabling this entire business is the coordination of that last mile, aggregating these small acres to be large acres, and to look as closely as broad acre-growers as possible to enable to economies of scale to make the market work. That’s true for tractors. It’s true for seed [systems]. It’s true for fertilizer. It’s true for storage and market linkages. But we start with tractors, but we believe that the coordination can be leveraged across the entire agricultural industry.

RAMA YADE: Jehiel, thank you. Can you tell us more about the track record of Hello Tractor? How many countries in Africa—

JEHIEL OLIVER: Yeah, sure.

RAMA YADE: I mean, in how many countries are you operating? And how many farmers have you—have you targeted?

JEHIEL OLIVER: So we’re Africa-focused. We have over a million. We’re at about 1.1 million farmers being serviced on our platform growing on 2.6 million acres of land. We’re focusin… You talk about indigenous crops, millets and—as well. And African maize, Kenyan maize. I’m in Kenya right now…

And, yeah, we’ve recently launched a tractor finance product as well. That’s operational in three countries. But the broader business and the core kind of fleet management and marketplace, we’re in three countries across the continent.

RAMA YADE: Thank you very much.

Professor Nachum, I’m back to you. You are talking about what could be a good agribusiness strategy for Africa, but at the same time important parts of the continent from the Horn to the [Democratic Republic of the Congo] is facing a food crisis, you know, because of, like I earlier said, the war in Ukraine, et cetera. How do you—how do you appreciate the most pressing needs of the sector today? And has the sector recovered from COVID-19? We know that the impact was important. How can we ensure full restoration before deploying the strategy you just described?

LILAC NACHUM: Yeah. You know, those kind of crises… are inevitable and political crisis, that will influence the region. And the more integrated the world is, the more dependent we are on other countries for the supply of our needs, the more exposed we are to those risks. These are inevitable.

I continue to—I have always believed and I continue to believe that globalization should march ahead in spite of those terrible crises. You know, a global pandemic happened for the last time a hundred years ago before COVID-19, so—and I think that the benefits that—during the—during the hundred years that passed between the last global pandemic and COVID-19, the benefits of globalization have changed the world in such a significant way. I wouldn’t want to see us reverting from these into an ocean of self-sufficiency and not being dependent on others for the supply of anything and everything.

So we need to find ways to make ourselves more resilient to such shocks. Political shocks, well, unfortunately we’re seeing many more of them in recent—in recent years, which is unfortunate. But they are also an inevitable part of our world, and I think that they should—they, too, should not be an excuse for closing up and protection—introducing protectionist policies that will undermine all the enormous benefit that the global world provide us, including in terms of—even in terms of food supply.

What I think that we do need to do is to—in order to protect ourself against those kinds of events, to become more resilient in the sense that not being reliant on one source of supply. Like, you know, the war—the war in Ukraine became so devastating because a large part of Africa were dependent on it as their source also for supply of grain. So diversified sources of supply and be ready to—to be prepared to the opportunity that something might go wrong, you know, in one part of the world that would jeopardize the ability—its ability to supply our needs.

But I continue to subscribe heartily to the principles of comparative advantage which underline the benefits of globalization. And they apply to food as well, and maybe to food to a greater extent because of the advantages of weather—weather, land, and type of land that may some parts of the world—inherently, most of the world for the production of certain foods than others. The benefits of trading with each other, even in those things, are enormous, and you should not let them go just because of the political risk or natural disaster risks.

RAMA YADE: Mmm hmm. Thank you very much.

LILAC NACHUM: Thank you. Thank you.

RAMA YADE: Ousman Gajigo, I have—I am intrigued by—very curious of your experience as ADB manager. And if—when we compare with your current activities at the head of a nonprofit foundation, how do you perceive the support by the African development organizations on the agriculture sector? Because we know—you know, today we are here to celebrate African innovation and creativity, and we know that the African civil society is really a vibrant civil society that tries to do the job the states sometimes cannot deliver. How do you—how do you work and—how do you appreciate and how do you work with the development organizations at the state level and at the continental level?

OUSMAN GAJIGO: Yeah, no, I mean, when you look at the challenges in agribusiness, there is definitely an important role for all of these entities you’ve mentioned. Most of the time, we do focus on issues at—you know, policymakers at international level. This foundation that I work for and helped create, you know, we work with smallholders that are engaged in high-value horticulture. So mostly we’re talking about farmers that have very small land size in highly remote areas. So you think about how do we make these farmers realize high growth, eventually become commercially viable, and are connected to the markets so that the work of foundations like mine become less needed over time.

So when you look at these, I mean, you—issues like access to finance and market, access to technology become important, and these smallholders can’t make all of these investments on their own. So the role of public sector, whether national or international, become quite important.

So, for instance, at the level of the—at the level of the organization that I work in, we—of course, we help with inputs, being—make things. We help these farmers with information that, you know—because a lot of the solutions are out there. It’s a matter of sensitizing, making it available to these farmers there. But also there are investments where it is beyond the means of an individual farmer, no matter how well-connected and how well-resourced they are. So those—there are some things that have public-good aspects.

Of course, I think Oliver’s activities, like what Oliver is also doing, you know, these are examples of where things that used to be the—used to be activities on the—you know, that governments used to do exclusively, what we see that, you know, there are even now private initiatives that are addressing that.

At a continental level, you have these roles that development organizations can play that even national governments have challenges in addressing. For instance, I know both the World Bank and African Development Bank, you know, have programs like global supply finance—I mean, global supply chain finance programs, where they link global buyers of agribusiness goods with aggregators at national level, provide financing… services. And these aggregators, they’re not able to link up with small-scale farmers to make so they have access to finance and access to market. So you have, again, roles for national governments here where they can assist in making so that you have cooperatives at a level of smallholders that can make it possible for these smallholders to actually interface with these international buyers, because it’s impossible for—to have an international buyer outside working with a farmer that has less than half an acre.

So at every level you have—there is considerable scope for these entities—national level, subnational level, and international level—you know, to address the constraints that there are. Of course, I’ve only mentioned a few, but it extends beyond your finance, but you know, technical service—I mean, technical assistance, advisory services, information. So these roles are there. And you know, my work both at the World Bank and at the African Development Bank before I started this foundation informed a great deal for, you know, roles that we can play at the national level and also at even subnational level to ensure that the smallholders, we start to think about them less as, you know, humanitarian cases than as potential business opportunities.

RAMA YADE: Up to—yeah.

Jehiel, I have a question for you about the underrepresented populations and development goals, especially women and young populations. How can they be—first, in your activities, do you have—do you target them specifically to be more inclusive? And how you work and support the development goals on the continent in terms of job creation, for example, in the urban but also in the rural areas.

JEHIEL OLIVER: It is—I mean, it’s central to our work. And it’s—you know, we talk a lot about internally going beyond the rhetoric and incorporating inclusion and equity… So we talked about, for example—I’ll use a real example—our booking algorithm that connects farmers to tractor owners. Logically, you would think the bigger the field, the more attractive the booking, right, because you get more work done and you have the tractor owner more—and you’re paid by the acres. But we don’t look at that at the individual farmer level; we look at the number of acres in a specific geographic catchment area. And we built that algorithmically to ensure that we were not—we were not disqualifying smallholder farmers from accessing tractor services. That’s the bulk of the market, and so that’s a market that we need to service, and we need to be thoughtful about how we crowd them into the marketplace without putting our tractor owners at a disadvantage, right? But it’s codified in the code, right?

The same thing with our tractor finance product, right? We’ve observed—obviously, I mean, we’ve all heard of the World Bank statistics around how women are represented in agriculture but are often last in line to access resources. They’re asset-poor. They don’t have the same level of access to financing. And so we thought there is an opportunity for us to design a product that targeted specifically young people and women. How do we do that?… We were underwriting the book of business of booking agents. As they engage more and more farmers, that’s what we underwrite to qualify them for a loan. Once you reach a certain number of acres booked in the application, you qualify to become a tractor owner through Hello Tractor in our pay-as-you-go tractor finance program. Now, we hold you accountable. Once you get the tractor, we track your performance to plan. If you’re not servicing bookings, if you’re not remitting a small feedback to—by form to make sure that money is recycling, we take the tractor away. But we prioritize young people. We prioritize women. We reduce the downpayment requirements. And we do a lot of analysis to make sure that, on a risk-adjusted basis, we can scale our business.

So we got—you know, in our—in our credit team, they’re constantly updating regression models to see what is a real indicator of creditworthiness, right? If that’s what we care about—because we need to repay our investors. Our investors are commercial players, like John Deere is our largest investor. They care about things like inclusion, but they also want to make sure they get their money back. And so—but we design for the kind of inclusion that I think is going to be important not just at a social level, but realistically that’s the market. So it’s kind of weird to not design for that because the businesses that don’t are really skimming off the top, and it’s really competitive at the top. There’s not that many bankable agricultural enterprises across Africa and there’s not that many, you know, broad-acre farms across Africa. There’s not that many dudes that are creditworthy running around trying to find loans from big commercial banks. It just don’t work that way. The bulk of the market is young people who are unbanked. It’s women who are unbanked. It’s smallholder farmers who are unbanked. And if you’re not reaching it, I would question the viability and scalability of your business.

So it’s imperative, both for the social commitment but I also really believe that commercially you’re irrelevant if you can’t crack that nut. And so that’s where we focus.

RAMA YADE: Thank you, Jehiel.

And we have only eight minutes, and I would like to dedicate this remaining time to a third topic after agribusiness and development: the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. And I’m going back to you, Professor Nachum, to ask you my first question on that.

Combating climate change in the—in the sector of agriculture is critically important. At the very moment when, like I said, in Dubai we are attending the COP28, thirty years of COP, what are the best options for the sector in Africa? What are the best practices, the inspiring models in Africa? And beyond—Aubrey Hruby, our Africa Center senior fellow, a few months ago just released a report on agritech and advanced a few recommendations about that. But on the continent of land, of water in danger and threatened by the global warming and all the extreme weather conditions, what are the best options to—in combating the climate change in the sector as of now?

LILAC NACHUM: Well, the problem of climate change, unfortunately, goes way beyond the sector, but obviously the sector will be among the—will experience the consequences of climate change probably more than any other—any other because it depends directly on the state—the state of the environment.

So I think if anything these issues call for greater specialization and more agribusiness activity that is really derived on the—that is based on the principles of comparative advantages and more efficient use of water, for example. So crop that requires more water should be grown in areas where there is just more natural water, and same on irrigation in other area where in order to address issues like water shortages crops that we—or crops or other agribusiness items that need more sun should be grown in areas where—more sunny areas, and so on and so forth. So greater sense of specialization in order to be able to provide the food security that we started the panel with, and at the same time also protect ourselves from shortages that will be caused by the—by environmental challenges. In general, I think that Africa will play a major role in the Green Revolution and the agribusiness is inevitably a part of that. So many of the resources that are needed in order to make that transformation to green energy are in Africa.

Africa provides—Africa will become a major provider of this and stand to benefit enormously from this transformation simply by being the provider, by being a source of the resources to the rest of the world. So—

RAMA YADE: Yeah. Yeah. Speaking of Africa, there’s fifty-five countries so a variety of countries. Among them those coastal states are at the forefront of the climate issues, which is the case of your country, Gambia, right?

So can you tell us more about the concrete effects of the climate change in the sector of agriculture in your country?

OUSMAN GAJIGO: Yeah. No, it’s significant. I mean, Gambia is a small country, coastal and very flat, low lying. So climate change beyond the issue of just increased, you know, variability in weather and, you know, more variations in rainfall or higher temperatures you have, like, more direct effects.

For instance, there are parts of the country where now you have saltwater intrusion where it wasn’t before and this makes groundwater irrigation, you know, increasingly threatened. So I think when it comes to agriculture and climate change it’s obviously very relevant so the issue then becomes mainly adaptation as opposed to mitigation, and for smallholder farming this is—there’s a lot that can be done. Irrigation there—this is where you also can leverage technological advances that allow you to better weather the climate effects.

So when you have small farms you have climate effect in terms of rainfall and you have—this is traditional agriculture that is rainfall dependent. It becomes more important to have, let’s say, irrigation technologies that can be right sized for small sized—for small farms.

So you have now, you know, solar-based irrigation designs that are—you know, that you can have—that are modular in design. It means can be right sized for small farms and as the farms increases they can be increased without huge increase in cost.

It means the investment costs for initial setup also can be a lot more affordable and it means in general you have sustainable use of this water that is becoming increasingly threatened.

So, yeah, so for a small country here the effects are, you know, tremendous, are real and, you know, action is needed in terms of adaptation.

RAMA YADE: Thank you very much.

My last question, and we have to wrap up because we have—this conversation should be over already—but you had Olivier—Oliver, my last question is for you.

I just mentioned the Atlantic Council and Policy Center for the New South report on agritech, and one of the recommendations of the authors was to advocate for more investments in the technology of—in the sector.

What could you say to close this discussion on your recommendations? What would you say to push the international—offering investors or American investors to invest more in a technology company in the agricultural sector?

JEHIEL OLIVER: Well, I mean, I will start with some of the statistics that you laid out eloquently at the top of the panel discussion.

We have the arable land. We have great water resources across the continent. I think for any investor investing in ag tech in Africa and really globally, I think there’s often this urgency in the venture to exit a fund. A typical fund life in venture capital is ten years. The gestation period in agriculture is much longer. Innovation cycles are longer.

So you need to select the right capital for this asset class and I’m not convinced entirely that venture capital is the right type of investment for this and I think globally ag tech has struggled a bit because of that.

So, certainly, there’s massive opportunities. You know, it took a hundred years to build Cargill, a hundred years, you know, to build John Deere, our biggest investor, and all of these same companies exist in Africa. You’re not going to get—you’re not going to get paid overnight. You have to be patient. You have to have resilience.

You have to have the qualities and the characteristics that we see in our farmers. And if—and if you bring those to bear, you will succeed because our farmers, season in, season out, they still have successful years without crop insurance, without all of the inputs, without all of these things, against climate change. They still have successful years and they largely feed and they—and if investors have those same characteristics, I would welcome them to participate in this amazing upside on this continent. If they don’t have those characteristics they should stay where they are.

RAMA YADE: … Africa cannot afford—according to what you said cannot afford to remain a promise or only a potential. It’s very important to become a reality and an achievement, especially in this sector where so urgent needs—we find so many urgent needs…

Q: Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Moussa Kondo. I work for Sahel Institute from Mali. Thank you so much, Honorable Ambassador Yade, for moderating this session.

So I’m from a country where the climate crisis and the farmers and also talking about food is some of the most important conversation. And I’ve heard a lot of innovation around the content. When I say content, is what we produce and how we produce it. It’s good to have a lot of side innovation around it but when you—the national politics or policies or international institutions encourage a country to produce things they cannot eat directly this is a problem.

And also the product they don’t control the market. I’m talking about cotton. The past few years the countries in Sahel—Mali and Burkina Faso—have been competing being the first cotton producer, and after the prediction they don’t control the price in the international market. So that means the cotton is not transformed right and then they may lose everything in one click but for international industries where they don’t produce. One point.

The second thing, countries… they don’t have land to produce even they don’t want. So they need production from elsewhere. And Mali has, like, millions of hectares to produce. So why we don’t encourage countries lever what we have learned to produce what we can eat?

For me, this is a thing—the one thing. When you take countries like—in Asia like Thailand or Vietnam, when they’re feeding almost Africa in terms of rice, where 80 percent of consumption of rice are off the continent, many countries in the continent are based on rice. So why we don’t focus on this and how we can implement, like, fertilizing chemical product also to make this meet the need of what we want.

Thank you.

Q: I shall make it quick. My name is Simba Rasha.

And my question is, do you really think smallholder farmers are going to take us to the promised land in terms of food production in Africa? You know, it’s a fundamental question that we all have to consider and answer and digest.

Millions—billions of dollars have gone into smallholder farmers in the last twenty years in the continent. We have seen negative growth in yield and overall output on the whole. So what alternative strategies exist in order to get the yield or the dividend yield or however the production that we need for the continent? Thank you.

RAMA YADE: So maybe we can take these two questions. Yeah, OK. So the first question, how could Africans consume what they eat, what they produce, right? Maybe Professor Nachum can take that question. And the two others about the small farmers for Jehiel and Ousman.

LILAC NACHUM: I would actually like to say something to the—in regard to the second question, because if I—

RAMA YADE: Feel free. Of course.

LILAC NACHUM: I agree—I agree with the speaker that we have—we have not seen improvement in the current model has not yielded the anticipated results. There is obviously something here that needs basic repair, for the lack of a better word.

And you know, in the United States, 2.5 percent of the population engage in farming, and the US is one of the world’s largest exporter of food. So the amount of product that they produce is sufficient to feed the country and more—and more; they need to export the—they’re exporting what is left. In Africa, we have seen the situation that more than 50 percent of the population is engaged in agribusiness and Africa cannot feed itself. So there is obviously something fundamentally wrong with this model.

And I think—and I agree with the speaker that it has not—it has not changed over decades. It has remained the situation. Africa is unable to provide its own supply of food. It’s among the—the size-adjusted figures are—according to the size-adjusted figure, it’s among the continents in the world that depend most heavily on import for the supply of its own food. This is an absurd, absurd situation. There is really something fundamentally wrong here.

Now, it’s easy to identify that. And what needs to be done in order to change the situation, that’s a big challenge. But I think we need to start by identifying where are the bottleneck. What is preventing the sector from growing—from growing? What is preventing of the sector from the three—the three issues that I mentioned in the beginning, from upscaling—from scaling, from upgrading, and from exporting so they can—they can get larger markets? Where the—where the bottleneck are? What is—what are the barriers…?

We have seen similar developments happening naturally by market—in the market in other places of the world. There have been natural causes of consolidation, and then larger farmers are better able to upgrade, driving a next-step process of consolidation, and then this size enables, of course, exporting… whereby it increases itself over time. This, for some reason, is not happening in Africa.

Why this is the case is a question that I struggle a lot with and I don’t have answers. But I think that this is the question to which we need to direct our attention. So I very much—

RAMA YADE: You know—yeah, please.

LILAC NACHUM: I sympathize very much with this question, and I salute the speaker for bringing this up.

RAMA YADE: Yeah, we advanced a few answers in our recent Africa Center report on the topic, making comparisons with other countries like Cambodia, Indonesia, Colombia, or India, you know, where facing—in the past they—and even today—facing the same challenges and bottlenecks. And I think this is important to—I mean, to—you know, to take these examples, the best practices elsewhere in the world.

And the second thing is maybe take advantage of the larger regional organizations, such as the Africa Free Trade Area that has been launched in January 2021, and that will help to move to the next step when it comes to having more impact; and maybe, with the—with the partners from the European Union to the US with the Africa Free Trade Area, for example, work on the commercial needs, too, you know? So that is—that is the—a few ways that could be or tools that could be mobilized, maybe, to get—to reach the next level when it comes to the impacts of small farmers.

And the second question, Ousman, would you like to take it, about consuming what farmers produce in Africa?

OUSMAN GAJIGO: Yeah. I think the two questions are actually quite related.

I mean, they’re absolutely right. If you look at productivity, you know, feeding—you know, countries feeding themselves is quite linked with the low yield. Let’s take one example here, Mali. You know, the staple is rice. They produce a lot of rice. The global average yield for rice is about four tons per hectare. In West Africa, the average yield is about two tons per hectare. In the country where I come from, the yield is one ton per hectare; it’s actually declining over time, you know. In that situation, you can have the largest amount of arable land, I mean, you just are not—cannot keep up with population growth. I mean, the per capita cost on rice is about 115 kilograms per person per year. Given the high population growth, you know, the productivity is just not—it’s not sufficient to keep up with the demand.

Compare, let’s say, Mali with Vietnam. There you have average yield of about six tons per hectare, very productive, and a lot of them are smallholders. So the issue here is not about whether we have smallholders or not, and it’s also not to romanticize smallholders. I mean, of course you need to talk about them because the vast majority of the farmers we are talking about, the ones who is in the constraints are smallholders. But the point is, you know, not to romanticize them and to say that, you know, you need to go with that model of smallholder-centered farming to have productivity growth. No. The idea is, as the professor said, identify what the constraints are, the constraint to productivity growth. This is the key. Why the yields?

I mean, we do talk about productivity per farmer, but the key here is really productivity per land, the yield. Yeah, where you are actually talking about, you know—you know, in the context of climate change, where we don’t want to have just bigger and bigger farms that is knocking down forest, you have to have intensification. And therefore, land—even in large countries like Mali, you know, land yield—I mean, land productivity or yield is essentially the key. And things like having agribusiness as opposed to just traditional form of development-assistance agriculture, this is where we need a culture change. Governments kind of move away from just saying, OK, we have—we give imports of seeds at the beginning of the year to farmers and, you know, help them improve their productivity, but we should focus more on thinking of agriculture as a business where even, you know, small, rural, remote farmers can be linked to the market. Because governments, let’s face it, I mean, our governments are not really in a position to address a lot of the challenges. So to the extent that that is called for, you know, private businesses, you know, to the extent that that is called for organizations that are formed by, you know, non-public sector, I think this is the way to go.

RAMA YADE: OK. Thank you so much.

MODERATOR: Wonderful.

RAMA YADE: Well, but I did promise this gentleman. Can you do yours in thirty seconds? Because we have our other colleagues here. Thirty seconds, sir.

Q: Yeah, yeah. My name is John Manyerakesa. I am a farmer here in the US.

I grow African food to decolonize the African diet, and that is something that we don’t talk a lot about. Chef Pierre Thiam talked about how we can actually use our indigenous food to substitute for all these imports, $65 billion. And so my question to you, twenty years ago we had the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program. All African countries signed that they’re going to do 10 percent of their budget to agriculture. Can you tell me if you follow? What is the status of that? Because it was an African program that Africans have to have their own African agriculture program based on the African realities. What is the status of that?

OUSMAN GAJIGO: Yeah. Yeah, no, I remember looking into this and a large number of countries are very far from actually meeting their commitments. I actually had a look at the budget of my country, and I believe the share of the budget that was allocated to agriculture was way lower than 10 percent. I forgot the exact percentage.

I think—I mean, the way I look at those agreements is not so much to follow religiously the specific percentages that are—that have been agreed upon, but the concept that it is important that you focus on agricultural sector, that it’s not neglected. But you know, you could have 10 percent of the budget allocated agriculture and all of it is to recurring expenditure and almost nothing is to capital expenditure, which is what is needed in some countries—investment in irrigation, things like that. So sometimes these dollar targets, I think, can obscure rather than illuminate what the issues are.

Watch the full event

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Public Event Tue, December 12, 2023 • 9:00 am ET

AfriNEXT

The Atlantic Council and global development company DAI convened high-level experts to reframe the narrative on African successes and innovation.

Africa

Event transcript

Uncorrected transcript: Check against delivery

Speakers

Rebecca Harrison
Chief Executive Officer and Co-founder, African Management Institute

Anita Erskine
Chief Executive Officer of Erskine Global Communications

Betty Beenzu Chilonde
Founder, Bulongo Incubator for Creative Skills

Moderator

Sarah Zaaimi
Deputy Director for Communications, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council

SARAH ZAAIMI: Hello, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to welcome you to another panel, an exciting panel on “Advancing [Women’s] Leadership in Africa.”

Let me first start with a conundrum that I’ve been struggling with myself. Women in Africa represent half of the population, and yet they are only 8 percent of wage earners and they only bring 13 percent of the GDP. But yet, if you scratch the surface, you will find a thriving ecosystem where women entrepreneurs such as the ladies here on my left and all the attendants that you’ve been listening to throughout this conference, they show a different image of Africa. They tell a different story of Africa where women leadership is a true success story.

For example, members are also talking about this. Women entrepreneurs, for example, in Africa are over 26 percent, and that’s above the global average. And also, most of the women in Africa are self-employed, and that’s, like, over 58 percent.

So to help me untangle this conundrum and discuss this, we have a panel of trailblazers and entrepreneurs, inspiring ladies who have been working in the continent. Let me introduce to you our panel today.

So, to my immediate left, Rebecca Harrison, who’s the CEO and co-founder of [African] Management Institute. She comes to us from Kenya today. She’s been doing a tremendous job. Her institute has over fifty-thousand beneficiaries from over thirty-five countries in Africa.

Next is our host that you’ve been acquainted to throughout this morning, Anita Erskine, who is the CEO of Erskine Global Communications. She’s a media personality. She runs her own shows on the radio and TV. But she’s also a social entrepreneur, advancing women, especially young girls learning in STEM, among other things. I’ll let you discover more.

And last but not least, coming from Zambia, is Betty Beenzu Chilonde, And she’s the founder of Bulongo Incubator, but she’s also a social entrepreneur herself and a fashion designer. She’s passionate about sustainability and has been doing a lot of work on the ground.

So welcome, ladies.

Let me start with you, Anita. How can we tell a better story of African women beyond the headlines, the scary headlines of war and conflict and things we’ve been listening to? How can we scratch the surface and show the real face of women leadership in the continent?

ANITA ERSKINE: Thanks, Sarah.

I think, first of all, we can by not pretending that those negatives [don’t] exist, you know, because you don’t tell a real story by sweeping the realities under the carpet. You actually look at the problems head on. You talk about drought and flooding in Somalia, and you talk about the women who are—perhaps who bear the brunt of—you know, brunt of this. You talk about the entrepreneurial ecosystem and the women who are frontlining it, who are at the forefront of it. You talk about perhaps a corporate world, you know, technology, et cetera. And you also underline the women who have, quote/unquote, “broken the glass ceiling” to be at the forefront.

But I think, ultimately, the element of owning that narrative is also—it’s kind of like double-sided. You don’t tell Africa’s story only on the one side of talking about how beautiful and how culturally layered it is without talking about the negatives as well, so that then you own how that story is told. So when you focus on women’s leadership specifically on the continent, you also don’t focus on the CEOs, you know, and the entrepreneurs; you talk about, you know, the women who lead their communities, you know, right down there, so to speak, at the grassroot level, and the women who, you know, sacrifice everything to ensure that their children go to school. That is a form of leadership as well. You know, so make sure that you project the entire story so that somebody doesn’t have to tell the other side for you.

SARAH ZAAIMI: That’s very, very pertinent on how granular the story of Africa is. And I would just want to add to that also is that there is some kind of essentialism on the way we tell the story of Africa as if it’s one country or one culture or one thing although there are different layers and layers to this continent and sometimes many disparities and many success stories but also stories of sadness. So thank you for saying that.

I’m moving to you, Betsy. I know you care a lot about innovation and I think that’s a theme that’s recurrent throughout this conference that we’ve been hearing throughout the different panels this day. There was this study—staggering study by UNESCO in 2021 that actually most women entrepreneurs in Africa are innovating somehow. Like, I think 24 percent, they innovate in a certain way.

I think maybe it’s the reality on the ground or the… specificity of what they have been doing. How do you explain that and how do you live that throughout your own journey as an entrepreneur and a designer and someone at the forefront of innovation in Africa?

BETTY BEENZU CHILONDE: Thank you, Sarah.

I think to answer that question, really, I would say that, you know, different things happen every day as women do their businesses and go about whatever they are doing and so to remain stagnated is really, like, something bad for a woman.

As you go through challenges you have always to think about how best you can do something, how best you can deliver, how different you can do things in order to achieve, at the end of the day.

So basically I think as a person who supports innovation and who has been through certain struggles as an entrepreneur, as a woman, I think it’s important really to also educate oneself how you can do things better, you know, as opposed to just focusing in one line.

It’s always best to look around what other people are doing, what other countries are doing, how are they, you know, reaching a certain target or how are they getting or surviving. So, really, innovation in that way is continued and you keep learning like that.

SARAH ZAAIMI: No, thank you so much for that. It’s very wise words coming from someone who have been, you know, grappling with this and working with this every day.

I’m turning to you, Rebecca. I know you spent a lot of time in the continent and you have roots there working with women and trying to open new perspectives in tech, in venture capital, and other fields.

I want to go back to the fact that women are still underrepresented in businesses. In board members, for example, they make less than 8 percent in board members of businesses but they also make less than 20 [percent], 24 percent at best in parliament. So even as decision makers they are, largely, underrepresented.

How do you explain that and how do you overcome it in your day-to-day life trying to work as a social entrepreneur and also as an economic entrepreneur?

REBECCA HARRISON: Yeah. What a great question. If I could answer that we would be fixing this problem, I guess.

But yeah, I guess I wear two hats as an entrepreneur myself and then like Betty also working with entrepreneurs, and I guess when I think about women in entrepreneurship particularly, you know, capital is the issue that we often end up coming back to, that women are just so underrepresented when it comes to seeking capital and accessing capital.

And I think there’s a few—so maybe I’ll just focus my answer on that—I think there are a few challenges there. One is the pipeline building, that there aren’t—there still aren’t enough strong female-led businesses coming through the pipeline to be able to access capital, at least in theory. That’s what the male capital allocators say.

I’m not so sure it’s true. But, arguably, the pipeline is still, you know, like you were saying I think 24 percent of businesses are women-owned. Of the businesses that we support we’re almost half and we’re very intentional about that because we feel like it’s our role to build that pipeline so that investors don’t have that excuse anymore.

We know that there are great women-led businesses out there and we want to help get them ready to be able to access that capital. So that’s one is building the pipeline.

The second is I think our models of capital have been very driven. I think one of the panels this morning made this point that you can’t just kind of take a Silicon Valley VC model and kind of put that in an African context and expect it to work. It’s just—the businesses are so different. The risk profiling is so different. And a lot of the women that we work with don’t necessarily want, you know, hockey-stick growth. They’re not looking for that. They’re working—they want to build profitable, sustainable businesses that grow. They’re ambitious, but they also want to integrate that with their lives and their communities.

So I really believe we need different types of capital and we need to embrace different journeys rather than just having this kind of techbro-driven, like, VC culture that women feel alienated from and don’t even want to be a part of anyway. We need kind of different models that are—that are more inclusive of kind of the incredible women entrepreneurs out there.

SARAH ZAAIMI: As a follow-up question to that, do you think equity investment is something that needs to be incentivized and put forward, and maybe also incentivized by other allies from outside who could, you know—you know, push the governments in the continent to adopt more equitable policies towards women, especially in the startup and entrepreneurship sectors?

REBECCA HARRISON: Yeah. I mean, I think it’s something that kind of allies from all spaces can contribute to because it needs intentionality at every level, whether it’s pipeline building, whether it’s capital. I mean, just an interesting stat, we’ve seen how women entrepreneurs are much—A, they create more jobs in relation to revenue than male entrepreneurs, but they create significantly more jobs for women. So, of the entrepreneurs that we support, more—so 75 percent of them have more than 50 percent female workforce, compared to, I mean, low double digits for men. It’s just so stark it’s fascinating.

So women champion other women, typically. So if we can get more women into kind of every stage of the value chain of entrepreneur support, from kind of mentors to capital allocators to entrepreneurs themselves, you know, whatever it is, I think that’s how we’ll see change, is really—and everyone can be an ally on that wherever you are in that kind of value chain.

SARAH ZAAIMI: That’s very important, especially to find allies within other women, women elevating other women and that peer-to-peer building up to find your footprint.

I’m turning to you, Anita. I know in our initial discussions we spoke a lot about agency. I know you built your own company from, you know, the bottom up. Is the startup and entrepreneurial ecosystem in Africa hostile for women? And how can agency reverse that trend or help empower women in that leadership?

ANITA ERSKINE: I’m sorry, I think women own the startup and entrepreneurial space.

SARAH ZAAIMI: OK.

ANITA ERSKINE: No, I think we own it. And I don’t have the data in front of me, but you can challenge me. I find that so many more small organizations/startups created from, you know, fashion startups, innovative startups, tech startups… are all run by women. But you perhaps don’t know about them and see them, perhaps because women tend to focus on getting the work done. Sorry, guys; mean no harm. You know, her focus is in the back office, is in the factory, because she’s responsible for so much more than just herself. So I find that, no, the women are there.

Of course, I mean, post-COVID we’re all going into a world of telling our stories, and people becoming a lot more vocal, and people saying, well, you know what, let’s own the narrative, which I strongly—you know, I advocate for. But I think that women really do what they do best, and that is they lead. You know, women don’t necessarily stand up and shout: Hey, look at me. I’m the founder. I’m the CEO. But she will start something, even on a small scale.

And when you talk about agency, I find that a lot of the time women are over-mentored and underfunded. So when you talk about agency, you know, you tend to be—you tend to confuse that with a woman being able to start her business. No, my focus on agency, really, is her ability to not only empower herself, but ensure that she’s got a story to tell that empowers other people, ensure that she’s educated enough to make the kinds of decisions that affect her positively, ensure that she’s able to understand the business, she’s able to understand the financing behind the business, financial literacy, and that when she comes up with an idea she’s surrounded by people who only are ready to say, you know, a tap on the back—Go, Rebecca! Go, Betty!—but who are able to back that up with cash, with money.

You know, so, listen, we could talk all day about this. But I think that, to be very honest with you—and I’m very happy, Rebecca; you need to help me define the data—but I think that a lot of the entrepreneurs, a lot of the leaders in the entrepreneurial and startup ecosystem are women, and they’re getting the world to pay attention to the continent. They’re just not talking about it.

SARAH ZAAIMI: No, thank you for that myth-busting discourse.

I would like to challenge you on that. There was a recent report by Brookings that says that women in Africa tend to confine themselves to certain comfortable sectors that the society expects them to be in. I know you, throughout the sectors that you are working on, you are busting that myth as well. But is that something across the continent that you’re seeing, or is it just among the elites in certain capitals—maybe Accra or Casablanca or other place, Nairobi? But is it—is it across the continent, or is it just a bubble that we are seeing and we are just seeing through those elites?

ANITA ERSKINE: I work on a project called Africa’s Business Heroes, and every year we see about twenty-seven thousand or thirty-thousand applications from across the continent. And it would shock you how many businesses, you know, focusing on social impact work or focusing on impact at the ground level and all the way up, how many of these entrepreneurs are women. So they are not only—and they’re not only in the cities. They’re not only in Joburg or in Accra or in Nairobi; no, they are in the rural areas as well. Some of them are giving up their full-time glamorous jobs in the big cities and then moving to their hometowns to build businesses just so that they can feed and employ other women on the ground.

So, no, it’s not—you know, the bubble is not per city or is not, you know, according to, you know, the 1 percent or 2 percent from middle to high income. No. In fact, if we did our research a little bit well—and perhaps we should have, you know, prior to coming here—we’d find out that a lot of, you know, a lot of the women are, you know, grassroots-driven. And I don’t know, hundreds of women who are employed at that rural and grassroots level are employed by other women.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Just to deconstruct that a bit further with you, Betty, we chatted a bit briefly about the weight of culture, and the cultural restraints and cultural norms that sometimes would tend to belittle the work of women. That’s what you were telling me through your story and through how people perceive, for example, designers. They say, well, designer is not a real job. You know, like, there is a lot of weight of culture on women trying to lead. Can you develop more on that from your personal experience? And how did you overcome that? And what would be your advice for young women entrepreneurs having, you know, to overcome all the stigma around what they do and trying to explain themselves to the society?

BETTY BEENZU CHILONDE: Thank you, Sarah. I think I’ll also just echo what Anita has said. There are so many women, young women out there who really want to do it, who want to make it, who want to do big things out there. But then, also, speaking from experience back in Zambia, you find that, just like you have mentioned, the weight of culture. You know, there is a certain responsibility that is placed on the woman to be able to be the homemaker, OK? She’s expected to take care of the children. She’s expected to nurture everything that is around and the man is supposed to work. So you find that even as much as she wants to make it, certain responsibilities restrain her from achieving more than the male counterpart. So you find that in some way she will be trying, but there are so many challenges that are coming against her. But, true, there are so many women out there.

And also, sometimes there’s a fear that if I go against, you know, what the culture expects me to do or, you know, what—there’s this, what they call, marriage material. I don’t know how many people have heard it, but the marriage material kind of woman is the woman who is submissive, who is not out there who wants to achieve, and who—the one who is going to be listening to what others are saying and really conforming to what society wants her to do or what they believe her to be able to be in society. So as much as they want to go out there, there’s a fear that, you know, they will be seen to be less marriage material and they will not get married at a certain age, and you know, then they are not good enough women. So all those constraints really come against the woman and they are not able to go forward.

The other thing that I would want to mention also is for those that actually manage to make it, they are seen to be maybe promiscuous, you know, as to mean maybe they have achieved because they have compromised in a way. So women are expected not to achieve more because, oh, you are pretty, so because you are pretty then you went against certain things, and that’s how you’ve made it. So there’s all those challenges, really, that come against the woman. But, yes, the women are there and they are ready to do it, but we need to sort of like help them to come out of those fears.

SARAH ZAAIMI: I want also to focus on the reverse phase of culture, because I feel also it’s the African culture that sometimes allowed these women to be empowered. Because if we tap into the history of the continent, we will find lots of stories of women fighters and, you know, women fighting patriarchy or even matriarchal societies where the woman is the breadwinner or is the head of the tribe or is the healer or is highly esteemed. And that’s not something that people maybe are familiar with. So do you also think that maybe culture is what made you and empowered you to become a leader?

BETTY BEENZU CHILONDE: I would say yes and no.

Yes in a sense that, of course, the African continent has so many languages, tribes, and all those things. If I come to Zambia, I come from a tribe of the Tongas, and these are the farmers, the healers. You know, they are the ones who are seen to be providers, more like food providers and all those things. So culturally, yes, some cultures really push the woman to be out there. Like in the Tonga land, women are the ones who are seen to be workers and the men would, like, really sit back and they will marry five women, and the women will be farming and they’ll be producing food and all this. So women are seen to be assets in a sense that they are the ones who are going to come and work to provide for the family. So, yes, in that way women are seen now to push themselves to be seen as workers to lead, to be able to provide for the family, and all those things. But when you come—you bring that kind of culture back to the city, these are the women who want to achieve. They want to achieve higher grades in school. They want to be seen to be doing better than the men and all those things. So, yes, culturally I think that thing is there.

But because of a mixture of culture, there’s now so many culture mixing here and there, there are so many different beliefs and different upbringing that have sort of, like, diluted how people value things, how they value marriage. I want to say this because I’ve mentioned that you know, women don’t want to come out because they want to be married and all those things. But then, also, I would want to say that I think you know, the way people are brought up, the values that they are—are instilled in them as they are growing, also sort of like affects how they think, you know, and what they pursue. Yeah.

SARAH ZAAIMI: I want to explore that point a bit further about what values and what education do we instigate in women and plant in women that seed of empowerment and self-reliance. And I know, Rebecca, you care a lot about training, about education, about advocacy. How can we empower women to play that role through effective education? And are there any case studies or anything you care to share with us from the success stories that you’ve been—you’ve been living or implementing around you?

REBECCA HARRISON: Yeah. And I’m ambivalent on this one because I agree with you, Anita; women are empowered already. We have power and we’re doing—we’re doing it. We’re building businesses across the continent. And sometimes I feel conflicted about this. I feel like as an ecosystem we’ve responded to what’s essentially a problem with the system by telling women to be more confident, right? Like, sometimes I’m like, well, actually, women are just quite accurate at describing their business success.

So if we look, for example—when I look at the data from our businesses and we disaggregate by gender, we see that women are really good at describing accurately the performance of their business. When we ask them, you know, a few months later, how is your business doing; have you increased revenue, profit, whatever; what they tell us matches up with what we see the actual—has happened in the business. Men, on the other hand—(laughter)—consistently overestimate how well their business is doing. They always tell us their business is growing, they’re making a profit, they’re doing so well. Then we look at the numbers and we’re, like, well, some of you are, you know.

And so—and we are guilty of this as well. Not guilty. I mean, it is a real thing that we need to encourage women to take up space and to own their voice and particularly in some countries. So we have a—we have a program called Speak Up To Lead, which we often run—we don’t—we try not to run too many programs that separate out women and men because networks are so important.

But we sometimes give women—we offer women on a program this extra module on kind of finding voice and agency and speaking up to lead. But I have to say I have this ambivalence because at the same time I’m, like, you know, rather than telling women to be more confident sometimes I’m, like, men should just be more accurate. Maybe that would stop things.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Is it maybe a marketing skill that they need to present their work better to the world?

REBECCA HARRISON: Yeah. I mean, I think that there’s something in it and for sure, like, I think, you know, many women do need to be bolder at times about telling our stories. But again, like, when you look at the data on raising capital male VCs consistently ask women about risk mitigation strategies and they asked men about opportunity.

So no matter how good you are at being bold and telling your story if the system is consistently kind of asking you the wrong questions I mean, yeah, we need to get really smart about navigating that. But, yeah, I just—I really resonate with your point about kind of over mentored and underfunded, I think.

As much as we need to encourage women to get out there and own our stories, really, the system’s got to shift for us as well, I think.

SARAH ZAAIMI: On the point of over mentor them—I’m turning to you, Anita—also maybe accessing funds and capital has to do with access to networks and sometimes what’s lacking is that one contact that you meet, the someone who is willing to take the risk with you, and so what—how can we make women have more access to those networks where capital resides?

And how can women empower women and help them get that access instead of having an ecosystem where women are competing with women because there is so little capital that everyone is just preying on that 8 percent?

ANITA ERSKINE: Listen, I think women compete with women because women are told there’s only two seats in the room and half the time you really don’t want to bring the other person or the other woman who’s as good as you. Then you don’t become the first.

I love awards. I love recognition. But sometimes I think that women are made to believe and think that there can only be one winner and there can only be—you know, and you want to be the first woman to be the oil magnate. You want to be the first woman to be the diamond magnate. You want to be the first woman to tell—you know, and so the entire space is filled with you must compete for this one spot.

But if there’s a second spot do not bring someone who is as good or better than you because then you won’t be the first, and that’s the bottom line. So I feel that women are in this space. We are in the—look at us. We are here. We are in this space. And then, of course, women don’t ask each other what’s your name and what are you into and how can we—and how can we interact, how can we work together.

You know, women always wait to be asked, oh, what’s your name and half the time, you know, because we don’t have the confidence to walk across the room because the room is so cold, you know, we kind of wait and hope that someone will ask us the necessary question and with that question we can give them the right answer and with that right answer it can open a door.

But having said that, I see a shift and that’s why I love the new generation of women. The new generation of women don’t even wait to be invited. They ask and say, I am coming to. You know, the new generation of women will hop on a flight and will travel across the world because there’s something essential happening on the other side of the world.

And so access to that capital is in the rooms that we find too cold to enter and access to capital is in breaking that essence that there can only be two of us. For me, every single time I’m invited somewhere, I mean, I am known to be the S-H-I-T disturber who will always say, hey, can I have five more invitations because there are five young women who are in my program that I would love to be in the room.

We didn’t get taught how to speak in these kind of rooms. We had to discover it the hard way. And, Betty, you said it. I mean, then they say, oh, Anita, you talk too much. Oh, this one is too wild. Oh, this one is too this. Oh, you know what, she’s too aggressive.

You know, but it’s not that. It’s the self-assurance. It’s the self-knowledge. It’s the self-empowerment. It’s the self-inspiration with which I walk.

And so you have this generation of women, and so if you want to break that concept of being in the room, accessing capital and all of that then you mustn’t have a room filled with fifty-something-year-old women. You must have a room fairly balanced with fifty-something-year-old, thirty-something-year-old, twenty-something-year-old, and perhaps sometimes even late teenagers to understand how you do it, how do you move in the room, how do you shake it, how do you, you know, be so concerned that one person is Caucasian, another person is Indian.

Who cares? You know, so the perception that we can’t—you know, one, we can’t all win is absolutely wrong. Then the perception that, oh, well, if one person wins it means next year there can’t be another female winner is another wrong thing.

But it happened to us. Let us not let it happen to the generation of women that are coming.

Did I even answer the question?

SARAH ZAAIMI: Oh, yeah. You did answer exhaustively the question. Thank you for your inspirational words.

I hope that a lot of women and a lot of allies and a lot of people working on Africa would hear this message and it will resonate with them.

I’m moving again to you, Betty, to maybe talk about solutions. I think we entangled enough the challenges and the landscape itself. If we move to actionable things let’s start by government policies.

What needs to be changed, reformed? I come from Morocco and I know in the 1990s there was that quota—women quota system that really elevated women representation in the parliament by, you know, instigating a 35 percent representation in women.

There are other things that could be done in the continent. You spoke about family and about perception and culture, maybe reforming family codes and giving more margins to women could be helpful. Maybe also gender-sensitive budgeting or maybe even removing taxation on some of the startups that are women led.

What are other things that you think from your experience from the concrete challenges that you are facing every day should be made at the government level?

BETTY BEENZU CHILONDE: Thank you so much, Sarah.

I think mentorship is one thing that can work to help women be elevated. I say mentorship because, you know, just like Anita has said whenever there’s an event there needs to be a balance, OK, and this balance sort of, like, creates an opportunity for the younger generation to learn from those who have already done it before.

And I think what the government needs to do—I know back home the government has made intentional provisions for women to be in politics—for example, a certain percentage to be also, like, in parliament and all those things.

But I think when it comes to women entrepreneurship and business and all that I think maybe what other incentives that can be there really is to allow the woman to be a woman. I say that because, you know, we cannot be the same as men.

I know there’s gender equality, all those things, you know. But let the woman be the woman and when I say that, really, I mean let the woman experience being a mother, for example. Give her enough rest when she needs it. OK. When they have babies do you give them enough time for them to recover and then come back to work?

Because when you look at the work landscape you find that maybe the leave for the woman is thirty days or forty—or forty days, same as the man. But you need the woman to recover. You need her to take care of the child and come back to the same opportunities and be able to be at the same level with the men, because biologically the woman is different.

So I think that needs to be recognized. And also by virtue of having a woman obviously she needs more time. You find that certain opportunities she’s not able to take—she’s not able to take those opportunities because of maybe, you know, biological clock and things like that. So I think those things need to be considered and she needs to be given, you know, equal opportunity and, you know, be able to be who she is and still continue pursuing careers and entrepreneurship.

SARAH ZAAIMI: So it’s gender-sensitive laws and allowing women to be women.

If we turn to the international community—and I know here there are many agencies and organizations and even investors among us here in the audience and people listening to us online as well—Rebecca, what would be the incentives or the actions that these allies internationally could do to lend a hand to empower and advance women leadership in the continent?

REBECCA HARRISON: Yeah. I mean, I think it’s about bringing a gender lens across the board and kind of asking those questions about participation of women across programming. So whether that’s around kind of finance allocation where, you know, there’s pros and cons against kind of—for and against quotas, but at least like taking a really intentional view; looking at design, ensuring that kind of gender lens is built into design; that products and solutions, that we’re taking a kind of human-sensitive design approach with women at the center, actually designing for the needs of women; and then ensuring that we’re elevating women’s voices within that programming so women are actually making decisions. And the more that we have women in positions of power and influence, the more I think we’ll see that kind of, you know, trickle down throughout kind of different components of programming.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Thank you, ladies. I also wanted to thank you for the insightful case studies and testimonies and voices that you lended to this discussion.

I also wanted to give the floor to the audience here if they have any questions, comments, additions to this discussion. So we could—and then I’ll turn back to you to answer.

Q: Hi, thank you so much, ladies. This has been a very insightful conversation. My name, again, is Joy LeFour with the Valcrest Institute.

And my question, any of the panelists can take it, but I have followed Rebecca Harrison for years and I really salute your work. And all the other ladies here, thank you so much for the insights shared.

Now, in the context of advancing women leadership in Africa, can any of you tell me, how can we leverage public—the partnership between the private sector and the public sector to create a sustainable opportunity to support systems for women in Africa, and especially in the rural areas?

ANITA ERSKINE: Do you want to take that?

SARAH ZAAIMI: Any other questions before we answer, our comments?

Q: Hi. I’m Audra Killian and I’m with DAI. And so thank you so much for the insightful responses for the—to the panel.

And I think one of the things that’s clear from the panel is the amount of female entrepreneurs across the continent. I was wondering if the female leadership in the private sector has been translating to the public sector and to politics and government, not necessarily just at the high level but also at kind of like the public-facing roles? So with civil servants, at the ministry level, just because not everybody can be President Sirleaf. So I’m just wondering about has there also been, like, a gradual growth of women leaders in politics and governance. Thank you.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Anyone else before we answer? No?

OK, any one of you want to take those?

ANITA ERSKINE: I can start from the first and then come to the second.

So I think it is Rwanda that has an increasing amount of women in—

REBECCA HARRISON: Parliament.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Fifty percent. Yeah. Yeah.

ANITA ERSKINE: Fifty percent, yeah?… Sixty-one [percent]? It’s 61 [percent]? Yes. So then my automatic answer would be yes. And even when I look at back home in Ghana, every four years when we have the presidential elections and for members of parliament you see more women actively participating in wanting to be in those various rooms, so to speak. So, yes, you can see the increase.

And I think that gradually we’re being able to debunk or break down the fears and the concept that to be a woman in politics you’ve got to be the female version of Arnold Schwarzenegger. And you know, so making it a little bit more attractive for women, but also realizing that the more we wait for, you know, certain decisions to be made on our behalf, the more regression that we encounter. So I’m seeing that a lot.

And in terms of the first question about, I guess, the interface between public and private, let me just talk from the perspective of girls’ education and banning early marriage as an example, because leadership doesn’t just happen when you are born. Leadership is actually the result of where you come from, how you are brought up, who leads you, what are you protected by. And I see that a lot more African countries are beginning to fight against, for example, early marriage. A lot more are beginning to look at helping girls pursue careers in STEM because that’s where the leadership eventually comes from.

So, of course, as I said before, I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I know even in the space that I work in in STEM or in communications or the media or across other industries that there’s a lot more government policies and conversations, you know, at the parliament level about how to get more girls educated. In Ghana we’ve got the Free SHS, which means that more girls automatically are able to go, you know, to school. But that doesn’t mean that girls don’t go to school where there is poor sanitation facilities, which eventually kind of kicks them out. So I see that increasingly we’re all becoming very conscious of how to make sure and ensure that the ecosystem, so to speak, is favorable, you know, for girls.

REBECCA HARRISON: Can I just add something on the public-private partnership? And thank you so much for the shout-out.

But we’ve—we stumbled upon a super interesting model for public-private partnership recently, which is leadership incubators. So we’ve been running a program on agricultural transformation with a partner, AGRA, where we bring together leaders at fairly senior level from public, private, and civil society and put them through a pretty intensive kind of transformational leadership experience. And what’s been so exciting and unexpected about this is how individuals connecting with individuals drives change so quickly. I mean, it’s obvious, right, but just to see this happen so quickly.

So, for example, we saw—we have the delegates working together on kind of practical action-learning projects, right? And so one project in Tanzania, we had a female entrepreneur who’s one of the leading entrepreneurs in the poultry sector in Tanzania in a group with a policymaker in the agricultural ministry, and they together worked to change Tanzania’s poultry policy just through, like a leadership project. And it really—and you know, I know that it’s ag, it’s a little bit off topic, but it really got me thinking about, you know, could we make this happen for gender? Could you get, you know, women from across public and private sector, civil society together in a really transformational leadership experience? What might that kind of generate? Could we do it for climate? So if any funders out there, you know, who want to collaborate on this—but, no, seriously, I think it’s a super exciting kind of idea to explore. If anyone, you know, wants to kind of co-create on that, would love to.

SARAH ZAAIMI: One more question and then we could turn to our guests with some closing remarks. We have under one minute.

Q: Thank you. I am Sarah from Zimbabwe. I just wanted to appreciate the panel. I enjoyed everything that you said.

I am just wondering at the top of my head if maybe you could comment on the role of men in supporting women’s leadership, because I’m thinking that we are fighting this battle because of mostly the patriarchal systems that we have. And maybe the battle is harder because some of the men are pushing back. So I feel that maybe if we don’t have them on our side or at least allowing us space, it’s going to take some time for us to be fifty-fifty at the table, be it in government, be it in the private sector, be it in the academia. So I’m just thinking, what are your thoughts on that? Thank you.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Thank you so much. I’m turning to you, Betty, if you could quickly maybe answer and also give any last remarks.

BETTY BEENZU CHILONDE: Yeah, thank you so much. I think that’s very important what you have just brought up, because as much as we talk about these things I think it’s very important for men to accept and want to support women.

What I have noticed is that men who are—who are, like, living in the diaspora are more willing to assist the women back home with home duties and also make—understanding that the women have to work and then they have to also take part in, you know, providing for the family in that sense. But when it’s back in Africa, it’s a very different story. You find that the men are not willing to assist the woman. So that becomes very, very difficult for the—for the woman.

And that actually brings out the fact that men are actually pushing back. And as much as they are talking about it on the political level and all those things, they are not willing at a personal level to accept and support the woman. So the woman has double work. They have to work, and also they have to work in the other sense. So I think it starts from accepting that the men have to accept to want to support the woman and be able to offload some of the duties that the woman is going through to be able to, you know, uplift the woman.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Any very, very last words before we close? I think we ran out of time.

ANITA ERSKINE: Oh, my husband absolutely loves the fact that I’m who I am. But, no, I mean, that’s why I said initially there’s two sides to everything. I married someone who absolutely loves the fact that I get to travel around the world and who is at home right now taking care of the kids. My daughter was unwell yesterday. He’s happy to give her her Benylin, you know what I mean? So I think there’s the other—there is the other kind of—you know, we don’t even have time to talk about the kind of man you should marry.

But just to finish off, I think that if there are women who have the money—we talked about women not being funded. Fund a women-owned business or a woman-owned business. What stops you from putting money into a woman-owned business? I think that’s a thing that is key. Two, stop trying to be the only woman in the room. And, three, gender equality doesn’t mean you get to do what the man does or, you know—you know, they say sometimes what a man can do a woman can do better. I disagree. I think women are good at doing exceptional things, some things, and women cannot do other things. Same thing with men. So if you pursue your career, pursue your dreams, pursue ambition, pursue it from the perspective of being the best woman you can, not the best woman that is better than the man in the room. And I think that’s how, then, you are able to also get the—to get the men to support.

SARAH ZAAIMI: Thank you. Thank you.

Watch the full event

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Businesses all over the world are currently racing to integrate AI into their products and services. This process will help define the future of the tech sector and will shape economic development across borders.

It is already clear that AI will allow us all to harness incredible technological advances for the benefit of humanity as a whole. But if left unregulated and uncontrolled, AI poses a range of serious risks in areas including identity theft and the dissemination of fake information on an unprecedented scale.

One of the key objectives facing all governments today is to maximize the positive impact of AI while minimizing any unethical use by both developers and users, amid mounting concerns over cyber security and other potential abuses. Clearly, this exciting new technological frontier must be regulated that ensure the safety of individuals, businesses, and states.

Some governments are looking to adopt AI policies that minimize any potential intervention while supporting business; others are attempting to prioritize the protection of human rights. Ukraine is working to strike a balance between these strategic priorities.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Today, Ukraine is among the world’s leading AI innovators. There are more than 60 Ukrainian tech companies registered as active in the field of artificial intelligence, but this is by no means an exhaustive list. Throughout Ukraine’s vibrant tech sector, a large and growing number of companies are developing products and applications involving AI.

The present objective of the Ukrainian authorities is to support this growth and avoid over-regulation of AI. We recognize that the rapid adoption of regulations is always risky when applied to fast-moving innovative fields, and prefer instead to adopt a soft approach that takes the interests of businesses into account. Our strategy is to implement regulation through a bottom-up approach that will begin by preparing businesses for future regulation, before then moving to the implementation stage.

During the first phase, which is set to last two to three years, the Ukrainian authorities will assist companies in developing a culture of self-regulation that will enable them to control the ethics of their AI systems independently. Practical tools will be provided to help businesses adapt their AI-based products in line with future Ukrainian and European legislative requirements. These tools will make it possible to carry out voluntary risk assessment of AI products, which will help businesses identify any areas that need improvement or review.

Ukraine also plans to create a product development environment overseen by the government and involving expert assistance. The aim is to allow companies to develop and test AI products for compliance with future legislation. Additionally, a range of recommendations will be created to provide stakeholders with practical guidelines for how to design, develop, and use AI ethically and responsibly before any legally binding regulations come into force.

For those businesses willing to do more during the initial self-regulation phase, the Ukrainian authorities will prepare voluntary codes of conduct. Stakeholders will also be issued a policy overview providing them with a clear understanding of the government’s approach to AI regulation and clarifying what they can expect in the future.

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During the initial phase, the Ukrainian government’s role is not to regulate AI usage, but to help Ukrainian businesses prepare for inevitable future AI regulation. At present, fostering a sense of business responsibility is the priority, with no mandatory requirements or penalties. Instead, the focus is on voluntary commitments, practical tools, and an open dialogue between government and businesses.

The next step will be the formation of national AI legislation in line with the European Union’s AI Act. The bottom-up process chosen by Ukraine is designed to create a smooth transition period and guarantee effective integration.

The resulting Ukrainian AI regulations should ensure the highest levels of human rights protection. While the development of new technologies is by nature an extremely unpredictable process for both businesses and governments, personal safety and security remain the top priority.

At the same time, the Ukrainian approach to AI regulation is also designed to be business-friendly and should help fuel further innovation in Ukraine. By aligning the Ukrainian regulatory framework with EU legislation, Ukrainian tech companies will be able to enter European markets with ease.

AI regulation is a global issue that impacts every country. It is not merely a matter of protections or restrictions, but of creating the right environment for safe innovation. Ukraine’s AI regulation strategy aims to minimize the risk of abuses while making sure the country’s tech sector can make the most of this game-changing technology.

Mykhailo Fedorov is Ukraine’s Vice Prime Minister for Innovations and Development of Education, Science, and Technologies, and Minister of Digital Transformation.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Dec 7, 2023

While the West dithers, the future of the world is being decided in Ukraine

By Peter Dickinson

If Western leaders choose to stop arming Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, future generations will view their decision as one of the great geopolitical turning points of the twenty-first century, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Defense Policy

UkraineAlert Oct 24, 2023

Battle of Avdiivka: Putin’s new offensive continues despite heavy Russian losses

By Olivia Yanchik

Russia has returned to the offensive in Ukraine in recent weeks with a major assault on the town of Avdiivka. The Russian offensive continues despite reports of catastrophic losses, underlining Putin’s determination to secure victory at any price in Ukraine, writes Olivia Yanchik.

Conflict Defense Policy

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2023 review: Ukraine scores key victories in the Battle of the Black Sea

By Oleksiy Goncharenko

The front lines of the Russian invasion in Ukraine have barely moved in 2023, but Ukraine has had far more success in the Black Sea, where it has broken Russia’s blockade and forced Putin’s fleet to retreat from Crimea, writes Oleksiy Goncharenko.

Conflict Drones

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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STRATEGY PAPER LAUNCH

The United States faces an increasingly challenging international security environment with ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. Tensions are also rising across the Taiwan Strait. With Xi Jinping charging his military to give him the ability to invade Taiwan by 2027, US and allied defense strategists are rightly concerned about a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait. Yet, while an invasion poses the greatest threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty, a naval blockade might be the most viable option for China.

In this installment of the Atlantic Council Strategy Papers Series, 2022-2023 Senior US Navy Fellow Marek Jestrab articulates a vision to prevent and, if needed, defeat a maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. This strategy paper demonstrates that a maritime blockade is the most strategically viable action for the PRC, that Taiwan is uniquely vulnerable to a blockade, and that a blockade is both a present and enduring challenge. The author presents specific actions for Taiwan, the United States, and like-minded nations with the goal of deterring and, if deterrence fails, defeating a PRC blockade of Taiwan.  

The only predictable element of warfare is that it is inherently unpredictable; a near-singular focus on a Chinese invasion by force risks catching the Taiwanese, US, and likeminded militaries unprepared in the event of a non-kinetic naval blockade.

Stephen J. Hadley, 20th National Security Advisor

Executive summary

Blockade: The most strategically viable option for the PRC 

The People’s Republic of China’s intention to unify Taiwan with the mainland is clear. Leveraging decades of sustained military modernization, the PRC possesses the capability and regional overmatch of maritime capacity required to execute a blockade of Taiwan. The specific actions that the PRC could execute will be discussed as part of this paper, but the term “blockade” in the context of this strategy refers to the PRC using coercive actions to prevent merchant shipping from having freedom of navigation in the waters surrounding Taiwan, and sealing off Taiwan’s seaports to prevent merchant shipping from being able to enter or exit the island.

A blockade is the most likely and dangerous scenario, due to Taiwan’s reliance on maritime trade to sustain its economic prosperity. Moreover, a nonkinetic blockade is appealing to the PRC, as it is the lowest level of coercive action that could remain below the threshold of open hostilities and still achieve its national objectives. The PRC’s maritime threat would be a coercive act, designed to instill fear in the Taiwanese population and the merchant shipping industry.  

The PRC views the existence of Taiwan as a direct threat to its national sovereignty. Because of these perceived threats, the strategic plans of the PRC call for resolution of the “Taiwan question” before China is able to achieve its desired “national rejuvenation” by 2049. To accomplish this goal, the PRC refuses to renounce the use of force to compel unification of Taiwan with the mainland. 

Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine war has made clear that unprovoked invasions of neighboring countries are simple for the world population to understand, and for leaders to rally against. Unlike an invasion, a blockade does not present the same strategic-messaging flaws. Moreover, the PRC’s military strategy indicates an openness to blockades and other uses of “restraint warfare,” which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) defines as seeking to avoid war first through military preparedness and powerful conventional and strategic forces that act in concert with political and diplomatic efforts to “subdue enemy’s forces without fighting.”¹

All these factors point to a maritime blockade of Taiwan as the PRC’s most strategically viable option. Therefore, what is required is a strategy specifically tailored to deterring and, if deterrence fails, defeating a PRC maritime blockade of Taiwan. The major elements of this strategy include Taiwan investing in capabilities that help demonstrate the resilience to resist, the United States maintaining the capability to sustain Taiwan in the face of a blockade, and like-minded nations providing enabling capabilities and additional maritime capacity.

The focus of this paper is on a nonkinetic blockade, but it is worth noting that there are multiple scenarios in which the PRC could utilize maritime advantages in its attempt to unify Taiwan with the mainland. A fundamental challenge of these actions is that the PRC can dynamically scale the operations based on evolving conditions.  

While there is no consensus on a perfect term to describe the possible coercive actions that the PRC could employ in the maritime domain, “blockade” is utilized in this paper as it is the best available and most wildly understood term.²

This paper puts forth a strategy to prevent and, if needed, defeat a PRC blockade of Taiwan. This is consistent with the US government’s existing One China Policy, with a legal basis grounded in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the US-PRC Joint Communiques of 1972, 1978, and 1982, and President Ronald Reagan’s Six Assurances to Taiwan of 1982.³

What is required is a strategy specifically tailored to deterring and, if deterrence fails, defeating a PRC maritime blockade of Taiwan.

Commander Marek Jestrab, Academic Year 2022-23 Senior US Navy Fellow

Taiwan’s unique vulnerability to blockade

The PRC today possesses the maritime force structure needed for regional overmatch in a blockade scenario. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) commands the world’s largest navy, the world’s largest coast guard, and a massive government-subsidized maritime militia. From 2005 to 2022, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has added 135 ships to its inventory, while in the same period the US Navy added just two.⁴ 

Located only one hundred nautical miles from mainland China, Taiwan is uniquely vulnerable to a blockade. Taiwan’s dependence on maritime trade is evidenced by the imbalance of its gross domestic product (GDP) in relation to its port activity: Taiwan is the world’s twenty-first largest economy by GDP, yet requires the world’s sixth greatest number of port calls by container ships to sustain this level of economic activity. Taiwan’s largest vulnerability is its energy sector, as it relies on maritime trade to import nearly 98 percent of its energy. 

Actions to defeat the fear and coercion of a PRC Blockade  

Deterring the PRC from even attempting a blockade requires a strategy that communicates to the PRC that its attempted coercive act would fail and prove to be a grave miscalculation. To communicate this message, an international coalition is required that can demonstrate the capability, ability, and will to sustain Taiwan’s economy indefinitely if it were confronted with a blockade. Implementing this strategy would require that:

• Taiwan demonstrate the resilience to resist;
• The United States demonstrate the capability to respond; and
• Like-minded nations demonstrate enabling capabilities and maritime capacity. 

To read the full strategy paper, download the PDF.

Strategy Paper Editorial board

Executive editors

Frederick Kempe
Alexander V. Mirtchev

Editor-in-chief

Matthew Kroenig

Managing Editor

Andrew A. Michta

Editorial board members

James L. Jones
Odeh Aburdene
Paula Dobriansky
Stephen J. Hadley
Jane Holl Lute
Ginny Mulberger
Stephanie Murphy
Dan Poneman
Arnold Punaro

Lead author

Fellow

Marek Jestrab

2022-23 Senior US Navy Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Industry Indo-Pacific

This strategy paper contains the author’s personal views, and do not represent official positions of the US Navy or Department of Defense.  

The author would like to thank Matthew Kroenig, Clementine Starling, Markus Garlauskas, Joseph Webster, and Kitsch Liao for their review and feedback. The author would also like to thank Julia Siegel and Shreya Lad for their editing and administrative support.

With a Foreword by

Board director

Stephen J. Hadley

Chairman, International Advisory Board

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.

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The post A maritime blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China: A strategy to defeat fear and coercion appeared first on Atlantic Council.

When Russia first launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Odesa was one of the Kremlin’s key objectives. Capturing the Ukrainian port city would have allowed Moscow to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea entirely and force the newly landlocked country to accept defeat. However, the invading Russians found their path toward Odesa blocked by the Ukrainian army at Mykolaiv. Meanwhile, Odesa residents rallied to prepare the defenses of the city, fortifying beaches and coastal areas to prevent the Russian navy from attempting any amphibious landings.

Instead of becoming the jewel in the crown of Putin’s new Ukrainian empire, Odesa has now emerged as the hub of Ukraine’s increasingly successful military campaign to win the Battle of the Black Sea. This process has been underway since the early weeks of the war. The first stage involved pushing Russian warships away from Ukraine’s territorial waters close to Odesa, beginning with the April 2022 sinking the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s flagship, the Moskva.

Two months later, Ukraine liberated Snake Island, a strategically important Black Sea outpost located some 120 kilometers southwest of Odesa. By midsummer 2022, Ukrainian forces were carrying out air strikes on targets in Russian-occupied Crimea with increasingly regularity. As the largest city in southern Ukraine and the headquarters of the Ukrainian navy, Odesa was at the heart of these efforts.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

The Battle of the Black Sea has escalated significantly during 2023. While international attention has focused on the largely static front lines of the Russian invasion in southern and eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been pushed out of the northwestern Black Sea, with most Russian warships retreating in recent months from their traditional home port of Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea.

This success has proven possible thanks to a combination of daring Ukrainian commando raids and surgical strikes against Russian air defenses, logistical hubs, and shipping. Ukraine has used innovative new naval drones and Western-supplied missiles to damage or destroy a growing list of Russian vessels and hit key targets including the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Satellite footage and international media reports in early October 2023 confirmed that the bulk of the Russian Black Sea Fleet had been withdrawn from Crimea to the relative safety of Russian ports.

While it is far too early for Ukraine to declare victory in the Battle of the Black Sea, the successes achieved in the past year are arguably no less significant in terms of their impact on the wider war than the liberation of Kharkiv region and Kherson in the final months of 2022. In addition to forcing Putin’s fleet to retreat, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian-occupied Crimea have also significantly weakened the logistical networks that are essential for the resupply of the Russian army in southern Ukraine.

Crucially, Ukraine has also been able to ease the blockade of the country’s Black Sea ports. Russia began blockading Ukraine’s Black Sea coast on the eve of the full-scale invasion. This blockade was partially lifted by a UN-brokered Grain Deal in July 2022, but Russia was soon attempting to leverage its continued participation in the agreement to blackmail the international community. It came as no surprise when Putin officially confirmed Russia’s withdrawal in summer 2023, leaving the future of Ukraine’s maritime trade in doubt.

Ukraine responded to this latest setback by unilaterally announcing the establishment of a new humanitarian maritime corridor for merchant vessels sailing to and from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. This would have been unthinkable in the first months of the Russian invasion, but Ukrainian progress in the Black Sea region during summer 2023 meant a new corridor was a realistic possibility. By early December 2023, more than 200 ships had passed through Ukraine’s Black Sea humanitarian corridor, carrying over seven million tons of grains, metals, and other cargo.

Eurasia Center events

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Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

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The reopening of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports creates a vital lifeline for the country’s battered wartime economy. While current monthly cargo volumes remain well below prewar averages, the steady flow of merchant shipping is providing a very welcome boost to Ukrainian GDP and bringing in billions of dollars in taxes. It is also reinvigorating the business climate in port cities including Odesa, providing work for local residents in a range of industries.

Ukraine’s progress on the Black Sea front of the war with Russia cannot be taken for granted. Despite suffering a string of naval setbacks, Russia retains the ability to attack shipping and strike Ukraine’s ports. Odesa has been bombed repeatedly since summer 2023, with attacks targeting the city’s port facilities along with the UNESCO-listed historic downtown area.

In order to win the Battle of the Black Sea, Ukraine needs to receive further support from the country’s partners. The most urgent requirement is additional air defense systems to guard Ukraine’s port infrastructure and territorial waters. Cities like Odesa much be protected if maritime trade is to continue. Longer range missiles are also needed to deter Russian warships. At sea, existing international efforts to clear the Black Sea of Russian mines are very welcome but should be significantly expanded.

Another critical factor is maritime insurance. A number of initiatives have already been launched to provide insurance coverage for cargo vessels serving Ukraine’s southern ports, but high rates remain an obstacle. While the Ukrainian authorities are attempting to address this problem, the country’s Western allies could potentially take steps to inspire far greater confidence among global insurance providers.

Keeping Ukraine’s ports open for business makes sense economically for Ukraine’s partners. It will save them money in the long run by reducing the financial burden of meeting Kyiv’s budgetary shortfalls as the war with Russia grinds on. More importantly, it also represents a significant step toward victory in the Battle of the Black Sea, which would bring Ukraine closer to defeating Russia’s invasion.

Oleksiy Goncharenko is a member of the Ukrainian parliament with the European Solidarity party.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Nov 28, 2023

Putin debunks his own propaganda by disarming Russia’s NATO borders

By Peter Dickinson

Putin publicly blames NATO for provoking the invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s recent demilitarization of the country’s borders with neighboring NATO members makes a mockery of such claims, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Democratic Transitions

UkraineAlert Oct 24, 2023

Battle of Avdiivka: Putin’s new offensive continues despite heavy Russian losses

By Olivia Yanchik

Russia has returned to the offensive in Ukraine in recent weeks with a major assault on the town of Avdiivka. The Russian offensive continues despite reports of catastrophic losses, underlining Putin’s determination to secure victory at any price in Ukraine, writes Olivia Yanchik.

Conflict Defense Policy

UkraineAlert Nov 30, 2023

Western leaders must choose: Arm Ukraine or enable Putin’s genocide

By Taras Kuzio

Western leaders must decide whether they are finally prepared to arm Ukraine adequately or face the consequences of a Russian victory which would lead to genocide in the heart of Europe, writes Taras Kuzio.

Conflict Disinformation

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post 2023 review: Ukraine scores key victories in the Battle of the Black Sea appeared first on Atlantic Council.

People from all corners of the world packed the room, and it was standing room only at our COP28 Resilience Hub, where she held court as the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center (Arsht-Rock) ambassador for heat, health, and gender.

“Extreme heat has to be viewed as one of the most dangerous results of the changing climate,” she said, recounting a trip to India, where she saw the harm done to livelihoods, particularly those of women working outdoors as farmers, street vendors, waste collectors, and salt pan and construction workers. “This is not just a health issue,” Clinton warned. “It’s an economic issue, a social issue, [and] a political issue.”

Working with Clinton and with Reema Nanavaty, director of the nearly three-million-member Self-Employed Women’s Association, the Atlantic Council has been implementing a parametric insurance program as a part of Arsht-Rock’s Extreme Heat Protection Initiative. This program protects women working in India’s informal sector from having to make an impossible choice: pausing their work during heat waves (to protect their health) or continuing to work and earn money, while putting their wellbeing at risk.

What has been winning the headlines here so far at this twenty-eighth United Nations Climate Change Conference has been the announcement on the first day of a landmark, $400-milllion loss and damage fund, a mechanism that provides financial assistance to the countries most affected by, but often least responsible for, the climate crisis. There has also been media attention on the hydrocarbon companies that have come to this conference in greater numbers than ever before—many with concrete commitments and plans to reduce emissions.

With over seventy thousand delegates and observers at COP28, actions that aim to improve lives—such as insurance programs to support workers in the informal economy, many of them women—deserve notice. For these workers especially, “their lives and livelihoods are at stake,” said Eleni Myrivili, the global chief heat officer for United Nations-Habitat and Arsht-Rock.

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe.

This edition is part of Frederick Kempe’s Inflection Points Today newsletter, a column of quick-hit insights on a world in transition. To receive this newsletter throughout the week, sign up here.

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With Geoff Ramsey and Isabel Chiriboga

Executive summary

On September 7, 2023, the Petro administration presented a new strategy to combat the illicit drug trade in Colombia—at a time when illicit coca cultivation is at an all-time high. The strategy’s emphasis on rural development and on offering viable economic alternatives for illicit crop growers, as well as changing counternarcotics priorities in Washington, provide a set of new opportunities for US-Colombia collaboration.

The United States and Colombia have a thirty-year track record of collaboration on this issue. Yet there is still a long road ahead, especially considering the growing concerns over the proliferation of organized crime in Colombia and the region writ large. In this context, progress on US-Colombia counternarcotics cooperation will require a delicate balance between reducing large-scale coca cultivation and building the capacity of security services to disrupt organized criminal networks, as well as investing in the rural communities most affected by this phenomenon.

At the same time, there is a growing recognition in the United States that the illicit drug trade is a shared responsibility primarily fueled by demand. Consumption and price have remained stable in the United States in recent years. However, the current trend of falling coca leaf and cocaine prices in Colombia present a natural incentive for coca growers to find alternative forms of income, which could mean a higher rate of success for alternative development programs and crop-substitution efforts if combined with a comprehensive law enforcement strategy.

The United States and Colombia should continue to collaborate closely to address the problems arising from the supply and demand for illicit drugs in this global context. This is crucial considering the emergence of new drug markets in West Africa and Europe, as well as the connections of certain trafficking organizations to fentanyl production. These dynamics, as well as a lack of state presence and the absence of economic alternatives in many parts of rural Colombia, have created longstanding challenges for both countries. Moving forward, it is crucial that both nations align their strategies to make the most impactful use of US assistance. The recommendations presented here are meant to bolster the approach to a decades-old problem.

US-Colombia Advisory Group recommendations

About the US-Colombia Advisory Group

Since its founding in 2017, the Advisory Group has been co-chaired by Senators Roy Blunt (R-MO) and Ben Cardin (D-MD). This year, upon Senator Blunt’s retirement, Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) assumes the honorary chairmanship alongside Senator Cardin.

Senators Cardin and Hagerty are both members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where, in addition to other assignments, Senator Cardin serves as Chairman and Senator Hagerty as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on State Department & USAID Management, International Operations, & Bilateral International Development. The two senators bring additional regional and global expertise to their honorary co-chairmanship: Senator Cardin is a member of the Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere, Transnational Crime, Civilian Security, Democracy, Human Rights, & Global Women’s Issues; and Senator Hagerty is a member of the Subcommittee on East Asia, The Pacific, & International Cybersecurity Policy.

In 2023-2024, the Advisory Group will provide a concrete plan on how to navigate the potential changes in US-Colombia relations. A new administration in Colombia represents a unique opportunity to work with an increasingly diverse set of actors in the public, private, and civil society sectors to deepen US-Colombia economic and diplomatic ties. The Advisory Group will advance concrete recommendations where the United States and Colombia can advance long-lasting peace and socio-economic prosperity that mutually benefits each country.

About the writers

Geoff Ramsey is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center. Ramsey is a leading expert on US policy towards Venezuela and has traveled regularly to the country for the last decade. Before joining the Atlantic Council, Ramsey directed the Venezuela program at the Washington Office on Latin America where he led the organization’s research on Venezuela and worked to promote lasting political agreements aimed at restoring human rights, democratic institutions, and the rule of law. Prior to that, he carried out research and reporting on security and human-rights issues in Colombia, Uruguay, and Brazil with InSight Crime and as a consultant for the Open Society Foundations. His work has been published or cited in Foreign Policy, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Economist, and other major media outlets. Ramsey earned a master’s degree in international affairs from the American University School of International Service, as well as a bachelor of arts in international studies with a minor in Spanish from American University.

Isabel Chiriboga is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, where she contributes to the center’s work on Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chile. She also helps steward the Center’s Advisory Council. During her time at the Atlantic Council, she has supported the work of the US-Colombia Advisory Group, the US-Chile Integration Program and the center’s programming around the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings. Her work has been published in Foreign Policy, Miami Herald, The National Interest, Global Americans and the New Atlanticist. Prior to her time at the Atlantic Council, Chiriboga worked as a research assistant at the London School of Economics’ Department of International Relations conducting research on the impact of land inequality in Argentina’s democratization. Prior to that, she worked at the embassy of Ecuador in Washington, where she supported the trade agreement negotiations process between Ecuador and the United States. Originally from Ecuador, Chiriboga has lived in the United States, Spain, and the United Kingdom. She has a bachelor’s degree in international economics and international affairs from Trinity University. Chiriboga also completed a year-long study abroad program at the London School of Economics.  

About the Center Director

Jason Marczak is the Vice President and Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, joining the center in 2013 for its launch. He has more than twenty years of expertise in regional economics, politics, and development, working with policymakers and private-sector leaders to shape public policy. Marczak has also been an adjunct professor at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs since 2016. Among his previous positions, he served as director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas in New York City and co-founder of Americas Quarterly magazine. Marczak is a frequent English- and Spanish-language contributor to major media outlets, and a sought-after speaker, and has testified before the US Congress on key regional developments. He holds a bachelor’s degree from Tufts University and a master’s degree in international affairs and economics from the Johns Hopkins University Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies.

US-Colombia Advisory Group

We are beyond grateful to our US-Colombia Advisory Group members for their passion, commitment, expertise, and leadership. Members who provided crucial input and have decided to have their names associated with this report are listed below.

Honorary Co-Chairs

Members

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Adrienne Arsht for her generous support, without which the work of this Advisory Group would not have been possible.

Foremost, thank you to Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) and Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) for their leadership as honorary co-chairs of this group. It is always a true pleasure and honor to work with them and to see how successful bipartisan efforts come to fruition. Thank you to Robert Zarate, Nick Checker, Lucas Da Pieve, Michael Manucy, Tom Melia, Brandon Yoder, Stephanie Oviedo, and Aidan Maese-Czeropski for facilitating the unwavering cooperation of our honorary co-chairs.

Isabel Chiriboga, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center (AALAC) program assistant, was an instrumental force behind this project from start to finish. She played a key role in coordinating the Advisory Group, drafting the report, and organizing multiple strategy sessions. We also thank Enrique Millán-Mejía, AALAC consultant, who provided crucial expertise, important feedback, and logistical support for this project, and Lucie Kneip for her research and editorial support throughout the publication process. The success of this project is also thanks to the leadership of Jason Marczak and Geoff Ramsey, who worked to convene the Advisory Group and whose passion for a prosperous US-Colombia strategic partnership is reflected in this brief.

For decisive input, thorough research, and as an exceptional adviser on the topic we thank Ambassador Kevin Whitaker. For their precise editorial assistance and flexibility, we thank Cate Hansberry and Mary Kate Aylward and Beverly Larson. We would also like to extend our thanks to Nancy Messieh, Andrea Ratiu, and Romain Warnault for their design of another Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center publication.

The Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center broadens understanding of regional transformations and delivers constructive, results-oriented solutions to inform how the public and private sectors can advance hemispheric prosperity.

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US-Colombia Advisory Group

The Atlantic Council’s US-Colombia Advisory Council, with Senators Ben Cardin (D-MD) and Bill Hagerty (R-TN), as honorary Co-Chairs, is a nonpartisan, binational, and multi-sectoral group committed to advancing a whole-of-society approach to addressing the most vital policy issues facing the US-Colombia relationship—with a recognition of the broader implications for bilateral interests across the region more broadly.

The post Advancing US-Colombia cooperation on drug policy and law enforcement appeared first on Atlantic Council.

To unpack recent developments and analyze what impact they will have on the war during the coming year, the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center hosted a virtual event in late November featuring an expert panel and moderated by Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

As fighting continues in Ukraine into the winter months without any sign of coming breakthroughs on the front lines, some experts argue that the war has now reached a “stalemate.” Shifting front lines, however, are only one indicator of success on the battlefield. In the estimation of retired US General Wesley Clark, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, “the battlefield is not a stalemate. The battlefield is dynamic.”

One theater where this dynamism has been on stark display is the Black Sea. Alina Frolova, Ukraine’s former deputy minister of defense and current deputy chair of the Center for Defense Strategies, recalled how Ukraine has “fully collapsed” Russian control of blockade operations on the Black Sea, opening up sea corridors through which Ukrainian grain is now able to reach global markets. She also noted that Ukraine had significantly limited Russia’s use of ballistic missiles launched from the sea, which will be especially crucial in countering another Russian wintertime barrage against Ukrainian cities. Frolova pointed out that Ukraine accomplished all this in the Black Sea without even having a navy.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Ambassador John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, noted shortcomings in the military aid being provided to Ukraine. “The Ukrainians were not armed by the United States and its allies in a way that would have made a large success [in the counteroffensive] possible,” he commented. This is a major reason Ukraine’s victories at sea have not been as dramatically replicated on land. “Certainly,” said Herbst, “the Biden administration’s overall policy has been adequate,” but not sufficient to guarantee Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.

Delays in the delivery of certain key advanced weapons such as tanks and long-range missiles have raised broader questions over Western policy toward the war. Ukrainian MP Oleksandra Ustinova reported that while the West delayed decisions and deliveries of military aid, “the Russians used this time to mine all the occupied territories.”

Many commentators believe advances in defense tech will ultimately prove decisive in the current war. Clark emphasized that Ukraine and its partners are “in a very rapid technological race that is affecting every army in the world.” Technology is changing the way countries wage war, and the biggest testing ground for these new strategies, tactics, and systems is Ukraine. In providing future assistance, Frolova noted that Ukraine’s partners might need to revise current military aid policies in line with Ukraine’s changing requirements and broader technological developments on the battlefield.

One priority is localizing Western weapons production in Ukraine, so that Ukrainian industry and Western companies can work together to build, develop, and service the weapons Ukraine needs. With a highly educated and skilled workforce and, as Frolova noted, “plenty of specialists who can easily join up and multiply production many times,” Ukraine can play an integral role in the production and maintenance of Western weapons.

Many Western defense companies understand these opportunities and some have even begun investing in Ukraine. For example, German company Rheinmetall has launched a joint venture in Ukraine. “We have big capacity to produce our own weapons,” said Ustinova. However, she noted that US arms manufacturers currently face significant restrictions. Given greater flexibility to invest, Western defense companies can make Ukraine an integral part of their supply chains.

Eurasia Center events

Online Event Thu, August 15, 2024 • 9:00 am ET

Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

Conflict Russia Security & Defense Ukraine

In conjunction with specific policy changes, continued assistance from the US and its allies is crucial. In Washington, progress on aid has been stalled due to delays in Congress. In October 2023, US President Joe Biden proposed a package that would pair aid to Israel, Ukraine, and funding for the US border. Despite bipartisan support in Congress for Ukraine and Congressional leadership’s public commitments to hold a vote on aid, Herbst noted that “a very small group in the House” is holding assistance hostage.

Clark expressed concern about the flow of assistance to Ukraine from the United States, both in terms of financial support and military equipment, noting that both components are vital to maintain Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. This assistance is an investment not just in Ukraine’s security, but in the security of the United States and its partners, he noted. Herbst reminded the audience that if Putin succeeds in subjugating Ukraine, “Russia is coming for NATO.”

Despite political obstacles, Herbst underlined that American public support for Ukraine remains robust. The current delay in Congress, however, not only threatens Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and make progress on the battlefield, but also calls US commitments around the globe into question. Ustinova noted that “China, Iran and other autocracies are watching” the foot-dragging in Washington, which only emboldens authoritarian leaders.

How will the Russia-Ukraine War develop in 2024? General Clark noted that the decisive moment in this war could come “at any point, either through leadership failure, lack of logistics support, technological breakthrough, or failure of political will.” By strengthening their commitment to Ukraine at this critical turning point, Western leaders can help ensure that when that breakthrough comes, it will be in Ukraine’s favor.

Benton Coblentz is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Nov 21, 2023

Arming Ukraine is the cheapest way to stop Putin’s resurgent Russia

By Ivan Verstyuk

Arming Ukraine may be expensive, but it is by far the cheapest way to stop Vladimir Putin’s resurgent Russia, writes Ivan Verstyuk.

Conflict Defense Industry

UkraineAlert Nov 21, 2023

Wartime Ukraine is making historic progress toward EU membership

By Mark Temnycky

The Ukrainian authorities have made clear they view EU membership as a strategic priority and are fully committed to pursuing this goal, even while defending themselves against Russia’s ongoing invasion, writes Mark Temnycky.

Civil Society Conflict

UkraineAlert Oct 24, 2023

Battle of Avdiivka: Putin’s new offensive continues despite heavy Russian losses

By Olivia Yanchik

Russia has returned to the offensive in Ukraine in recent weeks with a major assault on the town of Avdiivka. The Russian offensive continues despite reports of catastrophic losses, underlining Putin’s determination to secure victory at any price in Ukraine, writes Olivia Yanchik.

Conflict Defense Policy

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Learn more

The post Expert panel: How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine develop in 2024? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

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Last winter’s Russian campaign of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure began in October 2022 and continued until March 2023. It plunged much of the country into extended periods of darkness, leaving millions of Ukrainians without access to electricity, heating, and water amid freezing temperatures and harsh winter conditions.

The physical damage inflicted on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure last winter has been estimated by the United Nations at $10 billion, with the bulk of the damage reportedly at electricity generating power plants and transmission lines. This has badly undermined Ukraine’s overall energy capacity. For example, before the onset of last winter’s bombing campaign, Ukraine had an estimated 13.6 gigawatts (GW) of thermal capacity, but only 4GW remained in spring 2023.

Ukraine has been actively preparing for another winter of infrastructure attacks. Repair works have continued since spring 2023, while Ukrainian energy sector traders have been busy securing coal and gas stocks for the coming winter season. By the start of the heating season in early November, Ukraine had accumulated 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in storage, significantly more than last year’s figure of 14.7 bcm. State energy company Naftogaz has also been working to increase domestic production, commissioning 54 new production wells during 2023. This has helped Ukraine achieve unprecedented levels of self-sufficiency and has freed the country from earlier dependence on comparatively expensive European imports.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, has defied all odds by rebuilding some of its lost wind generation capacity in locations close to the front lines. Company officials pledge to expand this renewable energy capacity further. Helpfully, the Ukrainian grid operator, Ukrenergo, and its neighboring EU counterparts have also been working to increase border transmission capacity. This will allow Ukraine to access enough electricity imports to power two million homes.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Despite significant efforts to prepare for winter, Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure remains in many respects more vulnerable than last year. Much will depend on the delivery of sufficient additional air defense systems in the coming weeks. These are needed to protect the entire civilian population along with power plants and transmission lines across Ukraine. At present, only Kyiv benefits from a genuinely comprehensive anti-missile shield, but there are at least another 45 Ukrainian cities with a population of over 100,000 in need of protection.

The situation is further complicated by rising levels of domestic energy consumption in wartime Ukraine. Last year, demand for electricity fell to around half of prewar levels. This drop was due to a combination of factors including the destruction of Ukraine’s industrial base, the Russian occupation of around 20 percent of the country, and the departure of over seven million people who fled the invasion and entered the EU as refugees.

This reduction in consumption made it easier for Ukraine to maintain energy supplies to the remaining population. However, demand has been steadily rising by around 2-3 percent per month in 2023 as the Ukrainian economy stabilizes and millions of Ukrainians return home from the European Union. Amid signs of economic recovery, the IMF recently upgraded its 2023 GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 4.5 percent. Ukraine is therefore likely to face greater demand for electricity this winter, but will be dependent on a damaged and reduced energy network.

Eurasia Center events

Online Event Thu, August 15, 2024 • 9:00 am ET

Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

Conflict Russia Security & Defense Ukraine

One long-term solution to protect Ukraine’s power grid would be to redesign the entire system and install decentralized, self-contained production hubs using small-scale gas-fired turbines. The current system relies on centralized transmission lines and large generating units, which are highly vulnerable to attacks because any damage in one part of the network can disable the entire structure. Russia is well aware of this weakness and has sought to exploit it. A more decentralized system would be less vulnerable to Russian attack and could potentially cover demand in urban areas. However, this would require significant time and money that Ukraine currently does not have.

For now, enhanced air defenses are the only realistic option to guarantee a high degree of protection during the coming winter. Additional air defense systems must be supplied urgently by Ukraine’s international partners. The clock is ticking. While the weather remains unusually warm in Ukraine, the traditional winter chill is expected to begin in the coming weeks. When temperatures drop below freezing, this is widely expected to signal the start of Russia’s anticipated winter bombing campaign.

Efforts are currently underway to improve Ukraine’s air defenses. In early November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that more Western-supplied NASAMS systems had arrived in the country and had been deployed. Ukraine’s partners continue to send additional air defense systems and ammunition, although there is little specific data regarding overall quantities. Speaking on November 12, Zelenskyy noted that the country’s air defenses remain insufficient to cover the whole of the country. “The Ukrainian sky shield is already more powerful compared to last year,” he commented. “It has greater capabilities, but unfortunately, it does not yet fully protect the entire territory.”

While it is clear that Ukraine’s air defense shield is now far more formidable than it was one year ago, the country’s energy network remains significantly weakened. Russia has also doubtless learned valuable lessons from last winter’s devastating but ultimately failed attempt to bomb Ukraine into submission. As temperatures drop, the coming months will be a serious test of Ukraine’s resilience and the continued commitment of the country’s partners.

Dr. Aura Sabadus is a senior energy journalist who writes about Eastern Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine for Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), a London-based global energy and petrochemicals news and market data provider. Her views are her own.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Oct 31, 2023

ATACMS missiles create new dilemmas for Russian army in Ukraine

By Mykola Bielieskov

Two weeks since Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy first confirmed delivery of ATACMS missiles from the US, reports continue to mount of highly destructive ATACMS strikes against the Russian army in Ukraine, writes Mykola Bielieskov.

Conflict Defense Industry

UkraineAlert Nov 7, 2023

Ukraine reports fresh success in the Battle of the Black Sea

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Ukraine’s success in the Battle of the Black Sea should convince the country’s Western partners to finally abandon their cautious approach and provide the Ukrainian military with the weapons they need to defeat Russia, writes Peter Dickinson.

Conflict Defense Policy

UkraineAlert Nov 2, 2023

Putin will win unless the West finally commits to Ukrainian victory

By Ivan Verstyuk

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is more confident than ever that time is on his side in Ukraine and believes the Western world ultimately lacks the political will to oppose him, writes Ivan Verstyuk.

Conflict Defense Industry

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Read more from UkraineAlert

UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Learn more

The post Ukraine braces for another winter of Russian attacks on power grid appeared first on Atlantic Council.

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Since the start of the war, which erupted in retaliation to Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, United States and Israel have demanded that Egypt open its border with Gaza to allow the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians and their subsequent displacement in Sinai. But Cairo has categorically rejected the plan, insisting that its national security “is a red line” and that “the forced displacement of Palestinians would jeopardize the Palestinians’ right to statehood.” Cairo has, instead, called for a ceasefire and a return to negotiations that would lead to a just solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Cairo’s intransigence on Palestinian refugees has irked the United States, which had hoped it could use the $1.3 billion it gives to Egypt in annual military as leverage to influence the Egyptian leadership. However, the stakes of acquiescing to US and Israeli desires are high for Cairo.

For one, if the border was opened, a mass exodus of Palestinians would risk an infiltration of Hamas militants into the Sinai Peninsula. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has cautioned that attacks might be launched on Israel from Egypt’s side of the border, prompting Israel to respond with retaliatory attacks that would undermine Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.

Egypt is also concerned about the potential threat to its security. The Egyptian leadership is wary of Hamas, which it perceives as an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood (branded a terrorist organization by Egypt in late 2013). Egypt’s ousted President Mohamed Morsi, who hailed from the Islamist group, was supported by Hamas and had promoted trade between Gaza and Egypt. At the time, Morsi had allowed humanitarian aid and fuel from Qatar to enter Gaza through the Rafah crossing on multiple occasions. This contrasts to Sisi who has helped Israel tighten the noose on the enclave by keeping the border closed to traffic. 

Before the latest flare-up, Sisi had only allowed Palestinians studying in Egypt and those seeking medical treatment to enter the country via the crossing, but only after they had obtained the necessary permits from Israel. Hamas also has close links with the jihadist groups based in Egypt, such as Wilayat Sinai (Sinai Province)—an Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham affiliate that has waged an insurgency against security forces in northern Sinai. Allowing thousands of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula—as a proposed plan by the Israeli Intelligence Ministry suggests, according to a leaked document published in the Israeli news outlet Sicha Mechomit—increases the risk of Hamas strengthening its ties with Wilayat Sinai and other extremist groups that the Egyptian military has been battling for more than a decade.

Furthermore, a massive influx of Palestinian refugees would pose significant economic and humanitarian challenges at a time when Egypt is grappling with a severe economic crisis. Egypt is host to nearly three hundred thousand refugees and asylum-seekers whose vulnerability has increased as a result of soaring inflation, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Taking in more refugees would risk destabilizing the country, where an estimated sixty percent of the population lives near or below the poverty line, and where middle-class Egyptians are being driven into substandard living conditions as a result of the crisis.

Finally, Egypt knows only too well—from lessons learned from Lebanon and Jordan—that Palestinian refugees will settle permanently if admitted. 

Since the eruption of violence three weeks ago, Egypt has kept the Rafah border crossing—the main gateway for Palestinians into Egypt and the outside world—largely closed, opening it intermittently to allow humanitarian aid to trickle into southern Gaza.

Since October 21, when Israel finally agreed to allow humanitarian assistance to pass through, less than one hundred trucks of aid have crossed into southern Gaza—a mere drop in the ocean compared to the massive needs of the Palestinians amassed near the border. The assistance has included food, medical supplies, and water, but Israel has barred the entry of fuel—already in short supply in Gaza—for fear it would fall into the hands of Hamas. A medical team of ten foreign doctors was allowed entry into the Gaza Strip via the crossing on October 27—the first health team to enter since the war erupted.

Meanwhile, in a major breakthrough, hundreds of foreign nationals crossed to safety into Egypt through the Rafah crossing on November 1 after a Qatar-mediated deal was reached between Egypt, Israel, and Hamas. Dozens of injured Palestinians were also transferred to Egypt for medical treatment, according to an official who spoke to me on condition of anonymity.

But Egypt’s role in allowing humanitarian assistance into Gaza and admitting injured Palestinians into the country is seen as too little, too late by many Egyptians, who are enraged by the scenes of death and destruction on their television screens. On October 20, thousands of Egyptians took to the streets to express their solidarity with Palestinians after President Sisi gave the green light for the rare protest marches that were held at several locations in Cairo and other cities (demonstrations are illegal in Egypt and can only be staged with prior permission from security agencies.)

Protesters vented their anger and frustration at not only Israel—they chanted anti-Israeli slogans such as “Israel is the enemy”—but also at their government over its muted stance on the Gaza war. Dozens of protesters marched into Tahrir Square, where the 2011 anti-government protests were staged, defying a government order to hold the demonstrations only at pre-approved sites. Chants of “Bread, freedom, social justice     ”—the slogan from the 2011 uprising representing the unmet aspirations for basic rights, which was used against then-president Hosni Mubarak—echoed through the streets. Some protesters shouted, “We do not endorse anyone” in an apparent response to Sisi calling for Egyptians to endorse his rejection of Israel’s plan to displace Palestinians and relocate them in Sinai. More than one hundred protesters were arrested and detained in the days following the demonstrations—some of whom may face terrorism-related charges, according to their defense lawyers.

The recent protests signal growing public discontent over the government’s failure to address the plight of Palestinians and the country’s dire economic conditions. This public disgruntlement is a major source of concern for Sisi, given that presidential elections are only a few weeks away (slated for December 10). Egyptian social media platforms are flooded with criticism of the government for not doing enough to stop the “ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians. While many Egyptians—mainly government supporters—condemn Hamas for inflicting suffering on Gaza’s more than two million residents and for allegedly carrying out attacks against Egyptian soldiers in north Sinai, many others—Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and some leftist activists—perceive Hamas as a resistance movement and condone what they believe is a legitimate struggle against occupation.   

But, while the majority of Egyptians are enraged by Israel’s brutal onslaught on the Gaza Strip, they oppose the scheme of relocating Palestinians to Egypt. If Sisi bows under international pressure and opens the door to the besieged Palestinians, he risks facing the wrath of millions of Egyptians and perhaps even dissent from within army ranks as some of the senior generals in the Egyptian Armed Forces have fought at least one war with Israel to reclaim Egyptian land captured by Israel in the 1967 war.

While it is hard to imagine that Sisi will succumb to Western demands, he may seek to turn the turmoil in Gaza to his advantage. He could do this by trying to secure debt relief and/or foreign aid in exchange for allowing foreign nationals to evacuate from Gaza through the Rafah crossing or for opening humanitarian corridors into Gaza. He may also seize the moment to make amends with the United States after the fracture in US-Egypt ties over recent accusations that Egyptian officials had bribed Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ). Menendez was chair of the Foreign Relations Committee at that time and was allegedly supposed to help Egypt secure a bigger share of aid from the United States. US lawmakers were notably contemplating freezing a portion of the aid over Egypt’s poor human rights record.    

The Joe Biden administration may reciprocate by giving Sisi the support and acknowledgment he needs and may, once again, turn a blind eye to Egypt’s dismal human rights record, prioritizing US national security interests instead.

In so doing, the administration would only be disenfranchising the Egyptian people, many of whom have, in recent weeks, shifted their anger and resentment towards the United States, seeing it as complicit in the brutal massacre of Palestinians after Biden expressed his wholehearted support for Israel. In particular, Egypt’s leftists and pro-democracy activists who share the US values of freedom, equality, and justice feel dismayed and utterly let down. They accuse the US of double standards and hypocrisy for failing to condemn Israel’s violations of international humanitarian law.          

A marked shift in US policy vis-à-vis Egypt and the region is needed. The bitterness harbored by the Arab masses towards the United States may, in time, prove to be a red flag, threatening stability not just in their countries but also in the United States. 

Shahira Amin is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and an independent journalist based in Cairo. A former contributor to CNN’s Inside Africa, Amin has been covering the development in post-revolution Egypt for several outlets, including Index on Censorship and Al-Monitor. Follow her on X: @sherryamin13.

The post As the Gaza war continues, Egypt is facing pressure to act      appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Amid these cascading global risk drivers, there is a need for policies that enable mainstream adoption and equitable scale-up of next-generation sequencing (NGS, or NextGen sequencing) technologies capable of rapid and comprehensive surveillance of emerging and reemerging biological threats. NGS technologies aid in the earlier identification and tracking of infectious disease pathogens by collecting samples containing pathogen genetic material from different sources and aggregating this data to make a microbial diagnosis. These technologies also provide valuable surveillance insights into the characteristics of the outbreak-causing pathogens, including disease transmission patterns and the presence of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) genes. Notably, metagenomics “shotgun” NGS technology can more quickly detect a diversity of known and unknown pathogens within a genetic sample simultaneously to better inform public health action. However, a lack of policies to ensure investments in its cost-effective scale-up and integration with traditional epidemiologic surveillance systems are hindering the widespread adoption of this critically important technology as an early warning tool for biological threat detection.

Learning the right lesson from COVID-19

Potentially catastrophic biological events, such as emerging and reemerging pathogens from permafrost thaw and with spillover potential, are often viewed as falling within the realm of science fiction. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus causing COVID-19) made clear that low-probability, high-consequence events, such as an outbreak of a pandemic-causing novel zoonotic virus, are increasing in likelihood and, thus, not confined to Hollywood screenwriting.

A major lesson emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic is the need for stronger partnerships on strengthening the global architecture to enable routine adoption of NextGen sequencing technologies for early detection of emerging pathogens and the utilization of sequencing data to rapidly initiate risk mitigation activities. During the pandemic, there was an increase in the use of “omics” technology to identify different strains of SARS-CoV-2 in circulation. This advanced pathogen surveillance and characterization method was highly instrumental in providing an effective response to the pandemic, including for developing targeted COVID-19 vaccines. In the United States, genomics sequencing combined with wastewater surveillance data was successfully used to keep track of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 and to provide an early warning about other pathogen types, including AMR pathogens, circulating in a community.

The early identification of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 by researchers in South Africa and Botswana in November 2021 highlighted the advanced genomics capacities in place in some countries in Africa, as part of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Pathogen Genomics Initiative (PGI). In real-time, researchers from the region took appropriate measures to share sequenced data with the rest of the world as an early warning about the emergence of a new variant of the virus. The “rewards” of such proactivity, however, were travel bans and other punitive measures adopted by many countries, including the United States, to the detriment of southern African countries. This unfortunate turn of events highlights the need to strengthen policies to enable better cooperation of countries around rapid sharing of pathogen genomics data in real time and near real time as new pathogens emerge to better inform data-driven decision-making for pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response (PPPR).

Technology solutions

To ensure the effective monitoring and early detection of biological threats such as emerging AMR pathogens with the potential to spread across geographic regions, there is a need for mainstream adoption of a high throughput sequencing platform that can provide detailed genetic information about pathogens more rapidly and in the most cost-efficient manner. Amid the warming of the Arctic, there are ongoing research studies into the genomic diversity of permafrost pathogens using metagenomics sequencing. This pathogen-agnostic approach to pathogen surveillance enables the rapid identification of multiple pathogen types in a genetic sample and prediction of resistance emergence to inform public health decision making, policy formulation, and the implementation of appropriate biothreat risk mitigation interventions.

At present, metagenomics sequencing technology is yet to be routinely adopted and integrated into national surveillance systems such as the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS). This problem may be due to the complex workflow protocols and computationally demanding procedures that drive up implementation costs, thus making the current approach to metagenomics sequencing hard to scale as a nationwide strategy for routine AMR pathogen surveillance and early detection of emerging pathogens. Identifying the problem provides an opportunity to also inform the development of policy solutions focused on reducing costs.

One cost-cutting approach is to implement a standardized process and automated workflow protocol for routinely collecting, sequencing, analyzing, and integrating metagenomics sequenced data and ensuring harmonization/integration of data with the NARMS and other epidemiologic surveillance systems. Similarly, adopting a portable metagenomics sequencing platform will help reduce the time and corresponding costs of metagenomics data synthesis and reporting by simplifying the workflow process and reducing the turnaround time of sequenced data results. Existing portable sequencing platforms that have been validated and may be adopted for real-time analysis of metagenomics sequencing data include Oxford Nanopore’s MinION and iGenomics app.

Scaling up metagenomics sequencing

Enhancing pathogen genomic surveillance capacities for informing public health action would require equitable scale-up of metagenomics sequencing nationally, regionally, and globally and having in place the right policies to enable its effective implementation across health systems. At the national level, there is a need to harmonize and ensure interoperability of metagenomics-enabled surveillance data with other existing data systems using a One Health approach. This approach would also require enhancing capacities of countries in environmental surveillance and climate forecasting. In the United States, the White House has put forward a new executive order on enhancing the biotechnology and biomanufacturing sector, in close partnership with other countries, and pledges to invest eighty-eight billion dollars in PPPR activities over a five-year period.

In line with efforts to leverage emerging technologies, the newly launched US Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy should prioritize policies that enable widespread use of metagenomics sequencing for early detection of biological threats including AMR pathogens. It will be important to ensure these policies align with the Pioneering Antimicrobial Subscriptions to End Upsurging Resistance (PASTEUR) Act reintroduced to the Senate in April 2023. The PASTEUR Act aims to address existing gaps in antimicrobial development by incentivizing private sector providers to discover and develop new antimicrobials and to increase public health preparedness. Improving the utility and scale-up of metagenomics sequencing for early warning of emerging biological threats and for resistant pathogen monitoring would help ensure the availability of more sensitive data to promote innovations for the development of novel broad spectrum antimicrobial drugs to fight the silent pandemic of AMR. Similarly, the recently proposed Emerging Pathogens Preparedness Program under the US Food and Drug Administration could help promote regulatory reforms needed to speed up the development of medical countermeasures.

As the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention progresses with strengthening the capacities of all fifty-five African Union member countries in metagenomics-enabled microbial surveillance via the PGI, there is also an opportunity to enhance coalitions with the United States on PPPR to ensure better preparedness for the next biological threat that may potentially emerge from the Artic and other “hotspot” regions. In addition to existing partnerships across technical institutions, new coalition building opportunities should be explored with agencies such as the newly formed Bureau of Global Health Security and Diplomacy under the US Department of State, to set joint standards to enable the use of metagenomics sequencing more effectively for biological threat detection. Enhancing and scaling up pathogen genomics surveillance capacities across geographic regions also requires identifying opportunities for public-private sector partnerships, such as existing partnerships with Illumina, Inc. on the PGI; and the collaborative efforts of the Gates Foundation and Chan Zuckerberg Biohub initiative established during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Globally, a way to ensure harmonized standards setting and interoperability of genomics data across geographic regions is to align national and regional policies with global frameworks such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Genomic Surveillance Strategy for Pathogens with Pandemic and Epidemic Potential. The WHO Strategy aims to achieve a set target of ensuring access to timely and reliable genomic sequencing data for identified pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential by 2032.

“Canary in the coal mine”

The ongoing thawing permafrost in the Arctic is just one of many ecosystem changes caused by climate change. This process of permafrost degradation and subsequent discoveries of emerging pathogens, such as resistant pathogen strains with the potential to spread to other regions, serve as a “canary in the coal mine” signaling the imminent risk of occurrence of a global catastrophic biological event, if left unaddressed.

Although there are no easy solutions to addressing the global climate crisis and its impact on infectious disease pathogen emergence and reemergence, there is a need to move away from the approach of adopting quick fixes in a fragmented and uncoordinated manner. It is also well-acknowledged that calling attention to the increasing global health security threat posed by climate change driven invisible “superbugs” is not as attention-grabbing as the threat of extinction of “charismatic megafaunas” driving many ecosystem conservation efforts. Nevertheless, there remains an urgent need to link PPPR initiatives to climate action goals of reducing carbon emissions to help reverse global warming and stop further degradation of the Arctic. Such initiatives might include adopting national and global policies that enable partnership building and investments in emerging technologies including metagenomics “shotgun” NextGen sequencing for environmental monitoring and early detection of emerging and reemerging pathogens. This sequencing approach could inform the development of antimicrobials and other medical countermeasures as a critical aspect of biological risk mitigation.

Robust policy solutions are required to enable the cost-efficient scale-up and interoperability of metagenomics sequencing data platforms with other complementary pathogen monitoring systems using a One Health approach. There is also a need to strengthen international cooperation on pathogen genomics surveillance. Such cooperation can be strengthened via the harmonization of data sharing platforms and adoption of joint policy frameworks to improve early warning and detection of environmentally driven emerging biological threats and looming threats such as Disease X, a term used to indicate an unknown pathogen with the potential to infect humans.

The gathering of various interest groups, including policymakers, international organizations, multisectoral experts, technology providers, and industry players at the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, provides the right convening platform to strengthen existing partnerships and form new coalitions as a call to action during the COP28 Health Day and Climate-Health Ministerial. In advance of future global gatherings, ensuring an effective response to this clarion call requires setting data-driven, cross-sectoral policy agendas and implementing measurable joint action plans to track progress with achieving health security and climate change goals with known ancillary benefits across all relevant sectors.

Oluwayemisi (Yemisi) Ajumobi is a resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center who focuses on the adoption of NextGen sequencing technologies to enhance global health security.

The post A warming world could unleash dangerous new pathogens. Metagenomics early warning tools are vital for pandemic prevention. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

To avert an influx of Palestinians into Sinai, Egypt has urged Israel “to provide safe passage for civilians in Gaza,” Egyptian and Israeli security sources reportedly told Reuters on October 11. Cairo has, meanwhile, taken steps to bar Palestinians from entry into Sinai. The moves include dispatching troops to set up positions close to Egypt’s shared northern border with Gaza and patrolling the area to monitor the situation, Ahmed Salem of the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights explained on October 11.  

At a graduation ceremony of military college students on October 12, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi urged parties to the conflict “to exercise utmost restraint” and “remove civilians—women and children—-from the cycle of brutal revenge.” He added that it was crucial to spare innocent people from bearing the brunt of military conflict by allowing the prompt and immediate delivery of humanitarian assistance to Palestinians.    

Israel had warned Egypt against sending humanitarian aid to Gaza, threatening to attack any trucks carrying food and medical supplies to the besieged territory. The prevention of humanitarian assistance from reaching Gaza’s more than 2 million citizens is part of the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) efforts to implement a total blockade on Gaza. Israel wants to “eliminate” Hamas in retaliation for the Palestinian militant group’s deadly attack on Israel on October 7, in which at least 1,300 Israelis were killed. The figure exceeds the combined Israeli death toll from violence between the two parties over the last two decades.  

But even more alarming to the Egyptian authorities is the call on October 10 by Richard Hecht, the IDF international spokesperson, for Gazans to escape the violence by heading to Egypt via the Rafah crossing. 

“The Rafah crossing is still open,” he declared, advising “anyone who can get out” to do so. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had also earlier advised Gazans to leave. While Netanyahu did not mention Egypt as a possible destination, Israel’s southern neighbor is the only logical place that Gazans can flee to, given that Israel is off-limits to the besieged population. 

The calls evoked a swift response from Sisi. During a graduation ceremony at the Police Academy on October 10, he sternly said that “safeguarding Egypt’s national security” is a “top responsibility” and that there would be “no compromise nor complacency under any circumstances.” Sisi added that he categorically rejects any attempts to settle the Palestinian issue at the expense of others. His remarks referred to the risk that Palestinians could be pushed into Sinai. The Egyptian president insisted that the conflict could only be resolved “through negotiations leading to a just peace and the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

The IDF spokesman’s recommendation was also interpreted by two Egyptian security officials, who spoke to me on condition of anonymity, as “an attempt by Israel to forcibly displace Gaza residents and push them into Sinai.” Their remarks are based on a 2019 social media rumor that former US President Donald Trump had a plan to expand Gaza into part of northern Egypt and place it under Egyptian control. The rumor was denied by Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s Middle East envoy. Trump’s peace plan for settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—unveiled in 2020—proposed a series of Palestinian enclaves surrounded by an enlarged Israel, but did not refer to transferring Palestinians to Sinai. 

The Israeli military quickly revised the controversial recommendation through its spokesman, announcing that “the Rafah border crossing is currently closed” in a follow-up statement on October 11.  

Seeking to allay Egypt’s concerns, Amira Oron, Israel’s ambassador to Egypt, stated via her account on X, formerly known as Twitter, that “Israel has no intentions regarding Sinai and has not asked the Palestinians to move there.” She added, ”Israel is committed to its peace treaty with Egypt in which the borders between the two countries are clearly defined” and that “Sinai is Egyptian territory where the Egyptian army has fought terrorism during the last ten years.” 

Ambassador Oron’s remarks are in reference to Egypt’s more than decade-long “war on terror” in the Sinai, in which security forces have been targeted by insurgents seeking to create an Islamic State. The ongoing military offensive, which the government says is meant to rid the Sinai Peninsula of Islamist jihadis, has, according to some reports by research centers like the Arab Center Washington DC, been equivalent to the collective punishment of local communities, including evictions of North Sinai residents from their homes and forced displacement.  

Meanwhile, Cairo has intensified diplomatic efforts to prevent a further escalation in the fighting. In phone calls with regional and European counterparts and officials,  Sisi warned of the dangers of “the absence of political prospects” to resolve the conflict and the risks of destabilizing the region should the violence continue. He also stressed the need for negotiations to defuse the crisis. 

Some Western leaders and officials are pinning their hopes on Cairo to negotiate the release of hostages abducted by Hamas, given the thaw in relations between Egypt and the militant group, which shares Muslim Brotherhood affiliations. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said she had a “valued exchange” with President Sisi and had shared her concerns about the fate of the hostages who must be released and returned home safely. In 2015, Egypt rescinded an earlier decision to designate Hamas as a terrorist organization because the court that had issued the ruling had no jurisdiction. The move paved the way for a marked improvement in relations between the two sides. 

Egypt, which has long been a key mediator between Israel and the Palestinians and between Palestinian factions, also has strong security ties with Israel. In this latest round of violence, it finds its hands tied as Israel has made clear it rejects any mediation or calls for self-restraint. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is in the region to avert a wider war and express US solidarity with Israel after the Hamas attacks, has also called on the IDF to limit civilian casualties. Blinken is expected to coordinate with Sisi to establish a humanitarian corridor for Palestinian civilians and to evacuate the several hundred US citizens in the Gaza Strip ahead of a planned Israeli ground offensive on the enclave. The Egyptian president wants to use the corridor to send food and medical supplies into Gaza, but is adamant not to accept Palestinians into Egypt.

Whether Sisi will bow under US and Israeli pressure remains to be seen. If the Egyptian president refuses the US offer, this will likely exacerbate tensions between Cairo and Washington, and some will see Egypt as being complicit in the killing of innocent Palestinian civilians. If he accepts the Biden administration’s plan, he will be perceived by the Egyptian armed forces and many Egyptians as undermining Egypt’s national security and ceding land to the Palestinians. It’s a classic catch-twenty-two scenario.

Shahira Amin is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and an independent journalist based in Cairo. A former contributor to CNN’s Inside Africa, Amin has been covering the development in post-revolution Egypt for several outlets including Index on Censorship and Al-Monitor. Follow her on X: @sherryamin13.

The post Egypt cornered over Israel’s war on Hamas appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Focusing solely on the Mediterranean Sea area provides sufficient grounds to draw some conclusions. Natural disasters are abundant in this region—including devastating earthquakes, torrential rains, and tornadoes—occurring frequently enough to establish a recurring pattern that is undoubtedly caused by climate change. In each of these disasters, the response from Mediterranean governments progresses through various phases. Phase one involves assessing the event, determining the extent of the damage, and conducting necessary activities to save lives and provide relief to the distressed population. The second phase involves assigning blame. In the case of the coastal city, Derna, under whose responsibility did preventing such a cataclysmic aftermath fall? Who is answerable for the flooding that affected the city so severely? Why were there no protocols regarding a building’s location and why were dam repairs neglected, among other factors?

Statistically and historically, this second phase has seldom led to meaningful accountability in the countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. Responsibilities have been attributed rarely, if ever, and the norm has been that no one is deemed guilty. One example is the 5.9 magnitude earthquake that hit Egypt in 1992, causing massive damage and over 370 deaths. Poor construction caused many of the buildings to collapse, and the government response was next to nil primarily due to corruption. If anyone receives blame, it is typically past officials and politicians who are either deceased or incapacitated.

Eventually, the third phase kicks in, focusing on reconstruction and rebuilding. At this point, the ruling elite no longer perceives phase two as a risk, allowing them to divert funds allocated for this phase, which leads to corruption, poor governance, and cronyism. Phase four aims to push the entire event into oblivion, preventing public opinion from demanding effective justice and reparations despite the preceding scandals, as evident with the 6.7 magnitude earthquake that hit Algeria in 2003 and killed more than four hundred. At the time, the quake eroded public confidence in the Algerian government because of corruption and because no one had been held accountable.

This pattern has repeated itself in the area for almost every natural calamity over at least the past two centuries. The tragedy of Derna is likely to follow suit. General Khalifa Haftar, who controls Eastern Libya, has already visited Derna on September 15, announcing immediate reconstruction plans, assistance for the injured, and support for displaced persons, thus, presenting himself as the city’s savior. However, it’s widely known that, in 2017, during Haftar’s campaign to eliminate Islamists from Libya—believing Derna to be a hotbed of such groups—he subjected the city to a year-long siege and, in 2019, to heavy bombardment and military incursions.

A key difference in the case of Derna sets it apart from others. In the last century, the disasters that struck Mediterranean countries—for example, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Morocco, and Turkey—occurred in countries with legitimate governments—or even authoritarian ones—that had the capacity and willingness to act. Despite corruption and poor governance, the international community played little to no significant role in offering aid in these cases. The case of Derna may differ. In short, the tragedy of the dam collapse results from neglected dam maintenance, city infrastructure, and civil services, such as inadequately trained and equipped firefighters and medical personnel, the absence of a warning system, and numerous other issues.

While this situation can be traced back to dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s rule, the degree of neglect and mismanagement contributing to the current events can be primarily attributed to Haftar’s authoritarian rule and the duplicity of the House of Representatives (HoR) leadership. The latter claimed to serve the people but played a destructive role in administering eastern Libyan cities. While the official government in Tripoli cannot be directly blamed, it bears a significant responsibility due to its unwillingness to resolve divisions with the eastern component nor provide a model of good governance. This lack of legitimate governance sets Derna’s case apart from others in the region.

Libya lacks a government with legitimate—through free and fair elections—and effective authority. Coupled with the widespread discontent among the population, this offers an opportunity for the international community or a limited number of states with stakes in stabilizing Libya—such as Egypt, Turkey, and Algeria—to act decisively. Their intervention could deprive the current illegitimate actors of authority and propose a solution that involves empowering individuals of high moral standing and international institutions overseeing the devastated populations. The goal would be to establish a government solely focused on managing the emergency and preparing the country for elections. This intervention should not necessarily be through military means. Instead, it should consist of pressures by on-the-ground military actors to push for a solution that guarantees a change of government and a new direction for adopted policies.

This narrow window of opportunity is unlikely to remain open for long. Taking this honest, effective, and decisive action for the benefit of the general Libyan population—rather than the “pragmatic” approach of dealing with the existing powers, as seen in the Italian government’s policy of reliance on the Abdul Hamid Dbeibah government in Tripoli and Haftar in the east—would be considered a positive step. It’s time for European governments to understand that said “pragmatic” approach—one that is centered on dealing with any individual power based on its governance qualities—will only lead to more disasters and be unlikely to succeed.

Karim Mezran is director of the North Africa Initiative and resident senior fellow with the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council.

The post The Derna catastrophe is a sign that the international community needs to take action in Libya appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Online Event Tue, September 19, 2023 • 9:30 am ET

2023 Atlantic Council in New York

On the sidelines of the 2023 United Nations General Assembly, the Atlantic Council hosted global leaders taking on the world’s most pressing issues and shaping its future.

Africa’s population is set to double by 2050. Knowing the continent’s ability to feed its current population of over 1.3 billion people “is weak, how are we going to feed 2.6 [billion]?” asked Ibrahim Mayaki, the African Union special envoy for food systems.

Mayaki outlined solutions to that challenge during Atlantic Council in New York, in a discussion hosted by the Council’s Africa Center and the Policy Center for the New South on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Mayaki joined Cary Fowler—the US State Department’s special envoy for global food security—who argued that any solution will need to “focus on the smallholder farmer” to be effective.

On Monday, the United States and Norway unveiled a new seventy-million-dollar fund to provide financing for farmers and small- and medium-sized agricultural businesses in Africa “to try to de-risk some of the risks that are inherently” embedded in Africa’s agricultural sector, as Fowler explained.

“There is a consensus on the necessity to protect the small-scale farmers,” Mayaki said, adding that because these farmers “produce 80 percent of the food we eat,” empowering them would be a “huge boost” to the continent’s development.

Below are more highlights from the event, which was moderated by Africa Center Senior Director Rama Yade and Senior Fellow Aubrey Hruby and featured the launch of a new issue brief on the promise of agritech by the Africa Center and the Policy Center for the New South.

Read the issue brief

Issue Brief

Sep 19, 2023

Unlocking Africa’s agricultural potential

By Aubrey Hruby and Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub

The ongoing digital revolution in Africa presents a valuable opportunity to revolutionize the continent’s food systems.

Africa Economy & Business

Innovative solutions

• In addition to rising food prices, the war in Ukraine has “increased food insecurity” in Africa, said Yade, adding that “weak local infrastructure” and “the lowest levels of [agricultural] productivity” only make matters worse.
• In July, Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukrainian food exports to continue during wartime. But even when the agreement was in place, it benefited Europe “much more” than Africa, Mayaki said, “because we got very little percentage of the grains that were supposed to come” to the continent. This, coupled with Africa’s supply-chain struggles during the COVID-19 pandemic, showed Mayaki “that it’s important for Africa to count on itself… first” for food security.
• But “there’s no such thing as food security in a land where the soil is degraded… or where the crops are [not yet adapted] to climate change,” Fowler warned. “Unless we begin to start building the soils and adapting the crops, we’re going to run into real trouble.”
• “If you look into the future, you’ll see that there’s a need to produce 50 to 60 percent more food in Africa” by 2050, Fowler said; but projections based on current trajectories, he warned, indicate that for some crops, “the yield will be even smaller than it is today.”
• Fowler said that in continuing to support Africa’s food systems, the US government is looking to build food systems “in a sustainable way” that is going to be resilient to climate change. It is now working with the AU and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization on an initiative to identify traditional indigenous crops that offer the most nutritional value—and that can grow in a climate-changed world.
• Mayaki said that fragmentation across the AU’s fifty-five countries is holding back the agricultural industry’s development. “We must push for regional policies” that allow countries to specialize in what they’re strongest in, effectively creating continental “food baskets” that trade effectively and attract investors, he argued.
• Policies will also need to be “holistic,” he added, in that they will need to tackle agricultural issues alongside trade, infrastructure, and even governance challenges—for example, land tenure policies. “We will not be able to feed” the African population “if we do not think holistically,” Mayaki said.

The next frontier

• Hruby said that the digital revolution currently underway in Africa offers a “game-changing opportunity” to implement potentially transformative agritech solutions for the “hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers” who are currently operating “at suboptimal and unproductive” levels across the continent.
• Agritech offers a way to improve agricultural productivity without demanding more resources, explained Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub, a senior economist at the Policy Center for the New South—and co-author of the newly launched agritech issue brief. But, she added, the technology must be accessible and fitting for each local context.
• Eli Pollak, chief executive officer of Apollo Agriculture, discussed how Apollo helps farmers access needed credit—which is important particularly for women farmers who may not have collateral for bank loans. According to Ezzahra Mengoub, women contribute between 60 and 80 percent of total food production in Africa.
• Niraj Varia, the chief executive officer of iProcure, which digitizes rural supply chains, advocated for building up digital infrastructure across the continent to make sure that farmers can better access the materials and equipment they need. Cameron Alford, vice president of the Department of Compact Operations at the Millennium Challenge Corporation, said that working with African governments will be important in identifying and implementing solutions, as “country ownership is an important part of the model.”
• Highlighting the solutions that are growing in Africa has helped shape a more positive vision for investors and supporters, said Mayaki. “We are out of the negative narrative.”

Katherine Walla is an associate director of editorial at the Atlantic Council.

Watch the full event

The post What it will take to feed Africa—and the world—in the coming decades appeared first on Atlantic Council.

These figures reflect the tragic toll of the war on the Ukrainian people. Thousands of lives have been lost, and millions of Ukrainians have been forced from their homes. The scale of the destruction caused by Russia’s invasion has also been staggering and already runs to hundreds of billions of dollars in material damage. This total continues to rise on a daily basis.

Despite these horrors, the mood on the ground in Ukraine remains remarkably resilient. While lionhearted Ukrainians defend their country on the battlefield, companies work hard in the business arena to safeguard Ukraine’s economy and pave the way for future recovery. The Ukrainian business environment remains strikingly dynamic and innovative; for example, since the start of the full-scale invasion, AmCham Ukraine has welcomed 88 new member companies.

Businesses throughout Ukraine have adapted impressively to the many security, logistical, and economic challenges of the war. They continue to pay taxes, create jobs, invest, rebuild communities, support humanitarian efforts, and deliver essential services in exceptionally difficult and unpredictable circumstances. Looking ahead, they are ready to show the whole world what they are really capable of once peace returns to the country.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

AmCham Ukraine has conducted nine surveys since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion to gauge the mood within the Ukrainian business community. Many of the survey findings have been consistent throughout the entire wartime period, and have reflected the courage and confidence that have sustained Ukrainian businesses amid the physical hardships and mental trauma of the invasion.

As the war passed the eighteen month mark in late August, 84 percent of AmCham Ukraine member companies were operational. Many confirmed that they already had upbeat plans in place for Ukraine’s recovery and rebuilding, with 74 percent planning to create jobs within the framework of existing projects and 63 percent looking to invest in new projects or facilities. Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of member companies (92 percent) expressed their confidence in Ukrainian victory.

As Russia continues to bomb residential buildings, schools, hospitals, and Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, the safety and security of employees and clients remains the number one priority for all businesses operating in today’s Ukraine. Other pressing war-related issues include de-mining, the conscription of employees, the ongoing Russian naval blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, transport queues at Ukraine’s land borders with the country’s EU neighbors, war risk insurance, cyber security, and much more. Nevertheless, clear indications of durability and innovation can be seen throughout the Ukrainian business community, with the Ukrainian economy expected to experience modest growth in 2023 following an inevitably sharp decline during the first year of the invasion.

Eurasia Center events

Online Event Thu, August 15, 2024 • 9:00 am ET

Ukraine’s advance in Kursk: What’s next and implications

Conflict Russia Security & Defense Ukraine

My message to the international business community is unambiguous: It is risky to invest in Ukraine right now, but it’s riskier not to invest. There are countless examples of companies throughout the Ukrainian economy that successfully operate in-between air raid sirens; meanwhile, many multinationals have resumed operations in Ukraine’s regions and are building shelters or other infrastructure to address the specific security challenges created by the Russian invasion. It’s a risk-and-reward model in action.

I am convinced that now is the right moment to begin looking at Ukraine as a once-in-a-lifetime business opportunity. The biggest national recovery project in Europe since World War II is already underway and will gain considerable further momentum in the months and years ahead. Those who join this process during the early stages will benefit from a range of advantages.

Ukraine is a vast country with a large population, bountiful resources, and an excellent workforce. It is ideally located on the border of the European Union, with EU accession on track. Today’s Ukraine is an increasingly self-confident country that has turned away from Russia and is advancing toward greater Euro-Atlantic integration. Over the past eighteen months, Ukraine’s resilient response to Russia’s criminal invasion has captured the imagination of the watching world; Ukrainians are now more determined than ever to build the kind of future their nation deserves. This will create opportunities that no ambitious investors or international businesses should miss.

Andy Hunder is President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine.

Further reading

UkraineAlert Sep 5, 2023

Removal of defense minister shows wartime Ukraine is changing

By Melinda Haring

The removal of Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov in early September came following a series of minor but damaging corruption scandals and signaled a zero tolerance approach to graft in wartime Ukraine, writes Melinda Haring.

Civil Society Conflict

UkraineAlert Aug 29, 2023

Ukraine’s remarkable resilience may prove decisive in long war with Russia

By Peter Dickinson

With hopes of a decisive Russian military victory fading fast, Vladimir Putin is pinning his hopes on outlasting the West and breaking Ukraine’s will to resist. However, he may have fatally underestimated Ukrainian resilience, writes Peter Dickinson.

Civil Society Conflict

UkraineAlert Aug 17, 2023

Ukraine’s vibrant tech ecosystem is a secret weapon in the war with Russia

By Mykhailo Fedorov

Ukraine’s secret weapon in the war against Russia is a vibrant and sophisticated tech ecosystem including around 300,000 IT professionals and hundreds of defense tech startups, writes Mykhailo Fedorov.

Cybersecurity Defense Technologies

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraine’s politics, economy, civil society, and culture.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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The post Now is the time for businesses to look at Ukraine appeared first on Atlantic Council.

Here are three open letters from women in Iran who have risked arrest, torture, and even jail to share their vision of a better future for their motherland. Their first names have been changed out of consideration for their safety.

From the day Jina was killed, the Kurdish city of Saqqez [her hometown in northwestern Iran] was brimming with rage. The city was blanketed with the smell of fire and blood, but hope was also galloping among us. A year has passed since those days—a year in which we shed tears of blood over the killing of our people and died with each of them.

I was among the sea of protesters the day my people marked the fortieth day since Jina’s passing—a day that I will never forget; a day I felt freedom closest to home; a day when security forces blocked the roads on our land but were waved aside with the glory of unity. I expect a day as glorious as that on the anniversary of Jina’s killing, but this time everywhere in Iran.

Only a few days are left until the anniversary—a day we chanted “Woman, Life, Freedom”; a day that I vowed to be a daughter of Jina’s revolution.

To me, Jina’s anniversary is a day of hope—a day when I can tell myself, “the suffering will be over soon.”

I won’t forget the days when everything was painted in colors of revolution; when headscarves were burning in bonfires; when walls of the city were scribbled with slogans; when the rage that we had swallowed for years turned into chants of Woman, Life, Freedom from every corner of Iran; and, yes, when families waited outside regime jails—a pain that continues until this day.

But we are no longer afraid. It is them [the regime] who are afraid—fearful of Jina’s anniversary, of us, and of the faithful day of liberty. They know well that there will be no turning back. There will be no way to undo the changes sowed. We will not forget our martyred youth, our friends who still breathe, and the suffering of our people.

The regime is afraid of the spark of hope we have preserved in our chests. And, yes, as a Kurdish woman, I have not lost hope despite all the distress I have suffered and all the loved ones I have lost. We will never put back on the headscarves we burnt. We will keep fighting for all the dreams they took from us.

—Hataw, twenty-one-year-old, a Kurdish woman from northwestern Kurdistan province

A clear memory from my early childhood is watching the news about the suppression of the 2009 [post-election protests known as the] Green Movement on satellite television. Last year, I was on the streets participating in the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, experiencing the crackdown firsthand and feeling the pain of oppression in my bones.

I participated in the protests, hoping that, after the Islamic Republic’s fall, I would no longer have to risk arrest and torture and fear for my life just for being a trans activist.

I participated in the protests to end the economy’s collapse, so I would no longer struggle to make ends meet. I participated in the protests, dreaming of a tomorrow where I could freely fight for my rights and the rights of my people.

But we faced a violent crackdown, and now we are being suffocated by regime oppression, economic collapse, and cultural strife, including rampant queerphobia.

I am writing this to you while most online censorship circumvention tools (VPNs) have been rendered useless thanks to a regime crackdown. On multiple occasions over the past year, we have even faced total internet shutdowns, which is all part of the Islamic Republic’s strategy to cut access to the Internet.

Over the past years, whenever street protests have surged, the regime has imposed total internet shutdowns, cutting all links between people within Iran’s borders and the outside world. Internet shutdowns deprive the people of the right to tell the story of their lives under the Islamic Republic’s oppression and document the extent of regime suppression.

Marginalized people like me—including women, transgender people, religious minorities especially followers of the Baha’i faith, disabled members of the LGBTQI community, oppressed ethnic groups, dissidents, and environmental activists—are affected even worse by Internet shutdowns when compared to the rest of the society, since online spaces are the last pockets of freedom that we have access to—pockets of freedom where we can express ourselves and participate in political and social discourse.

Following the protests, the Islamic Republic has imposed absolute political repression. It has jailed all critics, protestors, and dissidents, keeping them in conditions in stark violation of basic human rights.

Over the past year alone, many people have died in regime detention due to inhumane prison conditions, dozens of children and teenagers have been killed in the streets, and hundreds of activists and journalists have been arrested and imprisoned multiple times.

At the same time, discriminatory policies are being implemented in the fields of gender, ecology, and economics, which cause serious and sometimes irreversible damage.

All of this shows how urgently voices from Iran need to be heard by the international community. Under the harshest conditions and facing violent suppression, people in Iran have not relented and are still fighting against the Islamic Republic. With eyes set on equality and liberty, we are preserving the flame of hope for a better future after the regime’s fall.

As a member of this community struggling with political suffocation and as a trans woman fighting against trans misogyny, I proclaim to the world that this regime is as illegitimate as any other totalitarian regime.

The people of Iran want to overthrow this regime. If you believe in freedom, equality, and human rights, remember that this regime stands against these values.

Any negotiation with the leaders of this regime is a negotiation with our murderers and jailers. Hear the voice of the Iranian people.

—Darya, twenty-five-year-old, a trans woman from southwest Fars province