Populism - Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/issue/populism/ Shaping the global future together Wed, 07 Aug 2024 13:58:59 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.5 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/favicon-150x150.png Populism - Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/issue/populism/ 32 32 A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/a-russia-without-russians-putins-disastrous-demographics/ Wed, 07 Aug 2024 14:00:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=782641 A new Atlantic Council report explores the effect of Putin's politics on domestic Russian demographic change. Is Putin heading towards a Russia without Russians?

The post A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 challenged much of the common Western understanding of Russia. How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eurasia Center’s new “Russia Tomorrow” series seeks to reevaluate conceptions of Russia today and better prepare for its future tomorrow.

Table of contents

Introduction

I. Addressing the Soviet legacy

II. Pre-war policies

III. The ethnic variable

IV. Wartime policies undermine population growth

V. Conclusion

About the author

Russia’s future will be characterized by a smaller population. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has virtually guaranteed that for generations to come, Russia’s population will be not only smaller, but also older, more fragile, and less well-educated. It will almost certainly be ethnically less Russian and more religiously diverse. While some might view diversity as a strength, many Russians do not see it this way. In a world with hordes of people on the move to escape war, persecution, poverty, and the increasing impact of climate change, xenophobic political rhetoric sells well.

Putin has spoken frequently about Russia’s demographic problems, beginning in his first months as president. Despite spending trillions of rubles on high-profile “national projects” to remedy the situation, population decline continued. Putin’s choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia’s demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe.

The demographic consequences from the Russian war against Ukraine, like those from World War II and the health, birth rate and life expectancy impact from Russia’s protracted transition in the 1990s, will echo for generations. Russia’s population will decline for the rest of the twenty-first century, and ethnic Russians will be a smaller proportion of that population. The ethnic and religious groups that embrace the “traditional family values” Putin favors are predominantly non-Russian.

United Nations scenarios project Russia’s population in 2100 to be between 74 million and 112 million compared with the current 146 million. The most recent UN projections are for the world’s population to decline by about 20 percent by 2100. The estimate for Russia is a decline of 25 to 50 percent.

While Russia is hardly unique in facing declining birth rates and an aging population, high adult mortality, and infertility among both men and women, increasingly limited immigration and continuing brain drain make Russia’s situation particularly challenging. Population size is determined by a combination of natural factors—birth rates and life expectancy, along with the emigration-immigration balance. Putin’s war on Ukraine has undermined all the potential sources of population growth.

There have been four important inflection points in demography policy since Putin became president. The first came in 2006, when Putin’s rhetoric about demography finally resulted in specific policies: demography was one of the first four national projects he launched at that time. The second significant change came following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. The reaction to that aggression in Ukraine, Moldova, and other former Soviet republics narrowed the number of countries providing labor to Russia.

A third key moment was the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack near Moscow in March 2024. Tajiks made up half of the immigrants to Russia in 2023, but that has become politically problematic in the aftermath of the Crocus attack. The most recent policy shifts accompanied the formation of a new government in May 2024. Initial reports promise a long-term approach that perhaps begins to recognize Russia’s new demographic reality. It comes too late, and the measures proposed fail to offer new solutions.

The paper begins with a summary of the demographic problems the Russian Federation inherited from the Soviet Union and its ineffective initial response. The second section reviews the deteriorating situation after 2013. The third section focuses on ways Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine is exacerbating all of these challenges. The conclusion suggests what impact population decline will have on Russia’s future.

Addressing the Soviet legacy

The Soviet Union experienced multiple demographic shocks in the twentieth century. Following Joseph Stalin’s death, recovery appeared possible. Yet by the 1960s, Russia’s high infant mortality and low adult life expectancy were outliers compared with most highly industrialized countries.

The population shock from World War II echoed for decades. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign in 1986–1987 generated a brief improvement in life expectancy, but this was hardly enough to change the dynamic.

Economic disruptions, beginning with Gorbachev’s perestroika and continuing into the 1990s, resulted in fewer births, higher mortality, and significant emigration. The dissolution of the Soviet Union spurred massive population relocation, as millions of Russians and non-Russians returned to their titular homelands. Every former Soviet republic became more ethnically homogeneous. This trend has continued within the Russian Federation, as some non-Russian republics continue to become less Russian. Russians relocating within the Russian Federation have reduced the population in the Far East.

Russia’s immigration-emigration balance involves several population flows. Russians have moved back to Russia from newly independent former Soviet republics. As Russia’s economy improved, labor migrants, primarily from former Soviet republics, have found formal and informal work in Russia. Prior to the war, the immigrants compensated for the multiple waves of (mostly Russian) people emigrating from Russia.

The breakdown of the Warsaw Pact —and then the Soviet Union itself—disrupted economic linkages and supply chains that had existed for decades. Economic insecurity reduced already-declining birth rates across much of the post-Soviet space. Russia’s total fertility rate (TFR)—the number of births per woman—dropped from just below replacement level in 1988 to 1.3 in 2004. Maintaining a population level requires a TFR of at least 2.1 without positive net immigration; Russia’s high adult mortality rate requires one even higher.

In his initial inaugural address in August 2000, Putin warned that Russia could become “an enfeebled nation” due to population decline. Despite the warnings, little was done. Russia’s TFR increased from 1.25 in 2000 to 1.39 in 2007. This slight improvement reflected better economic conditions due to rising oil prices, and a (temporarily) larger number of women in the 18–35 age cohort.

One reason for persistent difficulty in achieving higher birth rates or TFR numbers has been the legacy of Soviet polices. Lack of access to effective birth control and male resistance to condom use resulted in abortion being the widely used solution for unwanted pregnancies. Murray Feshbach calculated that the Soviet-era abortion rate averaged seven per woman. Far less attention has been devoted to male infertility. Alcohol and substance abuse have resulted in unusually high infertility rates among Russian men.

Low birth rates are only one part of the population problem. Unhealthy diet and lifestyle, binge alcohol consumption, and accidents contribute to the high adult mortality numbers. When Putin was first elected president in 2000, Russian men aged 18–64 were dying at four times the rate of European men. Russian women were perishing at about the same rate as European men.
Until early 2005, Putin’s public position was that Russia could offset its population decline by attracting more Russians living in former Soviet republics to return to Russia, bringing with them needed skills while augmenting the ethnic Russian population. This immigration offset much of the population loss in the 1990s but has increasingly declined since Putin became president. Significantly, non-Russians became the dominant labor migrants.

Data from the Russian state statistics service Goskomstat indicate legal immigration peaked at 1.147 million in 1994 and declined each year thereafter, shrinking to 350,900 in 2000 and 70,000 in 2004.

Despite the declining numbers, the Russian government adopted a highly restrictive law in 2002 limiting legal immigration. When the Security Council discussed immigration again in 2005, Putin called for a more “humane approach,” dropping the racial and religious criteria. Yet he followed this with a “clarification” prioritizing Russian speakers. It is possible that Putin understood the situation but adjusted his rhetoric in accord with public opinion.

Russian media reports of a massive influx of Chinese immigrants in the 1990s were wildly exaggerated. By 2000, as oil prices rose, workers from Central Asia, Ukraine, and Moldova found formal or informal work in Russia. Russia incorporated the populations of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, and additional territories since 2022, which accounts for official claims of a larger “Russian” population.

Immigrants to Russia have come overwhelmingly from former Soviet republics, which account for 95–96 percent of the total. Just five countries that were part of the Soviet Union (Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) had population growth between 1989 and 2004. Migrants from two former Soviet republics with declining populations, Ukraine and Moldova, continued to provide labor until 2014. Putin reiterated the importance of demography in his inaugural addresses in 2012, 2018, and 2024, and in many of his annual call-in programs. Several times he has acknowledged the failure to achieve promised increases in births. Yet there appears to be no learning curve regarding policies. Putin’s 2024 address promised more of the same: paying Russians to have larger families, accompanied by invoking the need for more soldiers to defend the motherland.

Pre-war policies

As the price of oil increased in the 2000s, Putin’s government debated how to use the windfall to address persistent demographic challenges. As in many countries, immigration remains politically fraught. Russian nationalist groups adopted “Russia for the Russians” as a campaign slogan. Improving life expectancy is an ideal solution, but it is slow and expensive, depending on adults taking care of their health. Putin’s government opted for pro-natal policies. In his presidential address in 2006, Putin cited demography as “the most serious problem in Russia today.” Rather than listening to advisers familiar with the basket of diverse policies that improved birth rates in France and Sweden—prenatal and postnatal care, parental leave, daycare, preschool programs, housing support, and other incentives—Russia’s government emphasized “maternity capital.”

The initial maternity capital program offered incentives to women for the birth or adoption of a second or additional child. The funds, paid when a child turned three, could be used for housing, the child’s education at an accredited institution, the mother’s pension, or assistance for children with disabilities. Over time, changes have included payment for a first child and improved housing. The annually indexed funding was enough to encourage additional births in rural areas and smaller towns but had little impact in higher-priced urban areas that are home to 70 percent of the population. Moreover, many women who experienced giving birth in a Russian maternity hospital decided once was sufficient.

The pro-natal policy coincided with slightly higher Russian birth rates, raising the TFR from 1.3 when the maternity-capital program was launched in 2007 to nearly 1.8 in 2015. Most demographers, however, attribute the higher numbers to a (temporarily) larger cohort of women in prime child-bearing years, economic growth due to higher oil prices during Putin’s first two terms, and hopes that nationwide protests over the 2011–2012 elections augured real change. After 2012, the reduced number of returning compatriots offset the gains in births.

Despite the augmented maternity-capital program, Russia’s TFR dropped back to 1.5 by 2019, prior to COVID-19 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian official sources continued to report the rate as 1.8. Without immigration, even a TFR of 1.8 would result in Russia’s population decreasing by about 20–25 percent in each generation.

The other endogenous factor in natural population change is life expectancy. Russia is hardly an outlier in experiencing lower birth rates. Most countries outside of Africa are projected to have smaller populations in the coming decades. Yet Russia continues to be exceptional among developed countries in the rate of mortality among adults aged 18–64. Russia’s economic recovery during Putin’s first two terms as President did lead to some improvement. While Russian men died at four times the rate of European men in 1990, by 2022 the rate was merely double the European rate.

The modest improvements during Putin’s first two terms were due to the economic recovery, greater stability, and efforts to improve healthcare. Yet the major focus of the healthcare program was not the badly needed primary and preventive care. Instead, most of the funds were used to purchase expensive new equipment, creating opportunities for graft.

The improvements in life expectancy began to reverse by 2019. Russia’s COVID-19 response was deeply flawed, resulting in the highest per-capita death rate among industrialized countries, though official statistics have consistently concealed the impact.

Economic benefits from people living longer are double edged. The impact depends on individuals’ capacity to work and the related dependency ratio for the population. Societies need enough able-bodied workers to support the young, the old, and the disabled.

Russia’s demographic issues involve quality as well as quantity. Even before Putin opted to invade Ukraine, Russia was experiencing another significant brain drain. Just before the war, Valerii Fal’kov, Russia’s Minister of Science and Higher Education, told Putin that the number of scientists in Russia was declining. Outside of atomic energy and the defense industry, Russia’s best specialists preferred to work in the US, Europe, and “even China.” Nikolai Dolgushkin, Academy of Sciences Chief Scientific Secretary, reported that emigration by scientists had increased from 14,000 in 2012 to 70,000 in 2021. Russia was the only developed nation where the number of scientific personnel was shrinking.

The challenges have become more serious, as the war on Ukraine has resulted in as many as half a million young men killed or wounded, women choosing to forego having children, women being sent to fight in Ukraine, and more than one million mostly young and highly educated people choosing to leave Russia.

Replacing them has been increasingly undermined by shortsighted government policies. In a country with a history of claiming to be multinational while viewing Russians as the system-forming ethnicity, recent government policies are creating additional difficulties. One of the great ironies of the situation Putin has created is that, in addition to poor rural villagers, the demographic groups best matching his August 2022 decree advocating “preservation and strengthening traditional Russian spiritual-moral values” are Russia’s non-Russian and non-Russian Orthodox populations.

The ethnic variable

Russia’s birth rates vary across regions and ethnic and religious populations. The rates in major urban centers resemble those of Central Europe, with later marriages, widespread use of birth control, and a large number of single-child families. Rural regions and small towns tend to retain more traditional values around child-rearing. People in these venues marry and begin having children earlier and are far more likely to have two or more children. Yet 70 percent of Russians live in the urban centers. The citizens most likely to have large families live in villages, small towns, and Russia’s non-Russian regions and Republics. In 2023, the non-Russian share of the population was about 30%.

Putin-era policies have persistently undermined the principles of federalism enshrined in Russia’s 1993 constitution. Some non-Russians believe the assault on their special status stems, in part, from Russians fearing their higher birth rates.

Significant differences in birth rates among ethnic and religious groups within Russia pose serious policy challenges. Some groups have been more resistant to the “demographic transition” than others. The predominantly non-Russian and Muslim republics of the North Caucasus are experiencing the “demographic transition” more slowly than most Russian regions. The Chechens in particular have responded to their deportation to Central Asia during World War II with a strong pro-natal ethos.

Comparative studies find relationships between high birth rates and traditional religious beliefs in multiple places. Some accounts emphasize higher birth rates among Muslims, despite wide variation across communities. Religious conservatives in many faiths record higher birth rates: evangelical Christians, Mormons, Hindus, Orthodox Jews, and others. Some groups have historically been known for large families. In Russia, some non-Russian ethnic groups have higher birth rates than Russians. The birth rates in the largely Muslim North Caucasus have been a particular concern for Moscow. Despite birth rates among many ethnic populations declining, births in many non-Russian communities continue to remain higher than those of ethnic Russians.

Several analysts call attention to a phenomenon of ethnic groups that feel threatened responding with high fertility rates. Russia’s “punished peoples”—those accused of sympathizing with the Germans during World War II and deported from their homelands—have received particular attention. Marat Ilyasov, a scholar from Chechnya who now teaches in the US, makes a strong case for the Chechens, one of the groups that managed to return to their ancestral territory, striving for high birth rates to guarantee the nation’s survival. They have the highest birth rates in the country.

Chechens are hardly the only ethnic group in the North Caucasus with birth rates higher than the Russian average. Some official sources intentionally downplay the numbers of Chechens and other non-Russian groups in an attempt to emphasize “Russianness” and downplay the significance of non-Russian populations.

Some Russian demographers suggest that non-Russians are increasingly experiencing the “demographic revolution,” but at a slower pace. While this is plausible, complaints about changing definitions and undercounting in recent Russian censuses provide ample grounds for skepticism regarding the official numbers.

Even the official data show that birth rates continue to be higher among many of the non-Russian groups in Russia. Many leaders of non-Russian peoples claim that these populations are being sent to fight in Ukraine in far larger numbers than ethnic Russians. Russian officials try to emphasize that it is the rural population that provides most of the soldiers, due to the high wages the military offers.

Data show that individuals from ethnic republics in Russia’s far east and south have a far higher chance of being mobilized for combat. While proving intent is complicated, the numbers are shocking. Men living in Buryatia have a 50- to 100-percent greater chance of being sent to fight in Ukraine than a resident of Moscow or St. Petersburg.

It is too early to gauge whether the high numbers of deaths and injuries will stimulate a response by some groups to try increasing birth rates. It does appear that the war is resulting in a more serious decline in births among ethnic Russians in urban centers than in both Russian and non-Russian rural communities. Russia’s non-ethnic-Russian citizens increasingly perceive their populations as being singled out as cannon fodder in Ukraine.

Immigrants have also been pressed into military service, causing a precipitous drop in immigration.

Wartime policies undermine population growth

Russia’s natural population growth has been curtailed by mobilization, casualties, emigration, and widespread reluctance to have children. Illegally annexing Crimea added 2.4 million people to Russia’s population, but significantly reduced immigration from Ukraine and Moldova. After 2014, labor migration to Russia was limited to five countries in Central Asia. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine stalled, the Kremlin has consistently needed more troops, forcing increasing numbers of these workers into military service.

Offering high salaries has attracted mercenaries from Cuba, Syria and elsewhere, but devious tactics have discouraged many labor migrants. In 2023, half of Russia’s labor migrants came from Tajikistan. The Crocus City Hall terror attack in March 2024, which Russian law enforcement alleges was carried out by Tajiks, is curtailing this pipeline. Tajiks have been rounded up for deportation and subjected to physical violence. Efforts to develop new sources of labor migration from Southeast Asia have been undermined by Russia continuing to send labor migrants to Ukraine.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine also provoked another large exodus of Russians from Russia. Some families had their bags packed and were ready to leave when Russian troops crossed the border in February 2022. Mobilization in September 2022 caused an additional exodus, primarily by young men. Many information technology (IT) specialists left, believing they could continue to work while abroad.

A man walks past banners in support of the Russian Army in Saint Petersburg, Russia. (Anton Vaganov via REUTERS)

Emigration by hundreds of thousands of young men, and an unknown number of young women, is reducing the already small cohort of Russians in prime reproductive years. Hundreds of thousands of men being sent to serve in Ukraine further limits reproductive potential. Russian women have increasingly opted to avoid pregnancy in the face of economic difficulties and growing uncertainty. In the first half of 2023, a record number of Russians applied for passports for travel abroad “just in case” (na vsyaki sluchi).

The regime has responded with efforts to prevent abortion and limit birth control. This comes at a time when abortions are less frequent. Some Russian women are choosing sterilization instead. This represents an ironic shift from the Soviet-era legacy of many women being unable to have children due to multiple abortions. Births in 2023 reflected the lowest fertility rate in the past two or three centuries.

The declining value of the ruble and raids on immigrant communities to conscript workers to fight in Ukraine have reduced the number of Central Asians seeking work in Russia. The number willing to become paid mercenaries is limited.

Russia’s leadership apparently did not anticipate the need to recruit additional soldiers for a protracted war in 2022. Doing so now represents a serious challenge. Data in 2015 indicated that Russians were pleased that Crimea was under Russian control. However, fewer than 20 percent of Russians surveyed thought their government should spend large sums to rebuild occupied areas of Ukraine, especially the Donbas region. Fewer than 10 percent said it was worth risking Russian lives to keep these territories.

The Russian government’s polling consistently reports approval for the war as high as 70–80 percent. Some Western analysts accept these numbers, and some have commissioned their own polling that confirms strong support for the war. Others are dubious, reporting data similar to those of 2015, when respondents were asked about financing reconstruction or the need to suffer casualties.

One indication that Russia’s leadership understands the problem of sending Russians to fight in Ukraine is an increasingly desperate and shortsighted attempt to find alternatives to mobilizing more Russians. After the February 2022 invasion provoked a large exodus of Russians of all ages, the “partial” mobilization conducted in September 2022 resulted in tens of thousands more, primarily young men, leaving the country. No one has precise data, and many of these Russian citizens have moved on from their initial refuge. If seven hundred thousand Russians now registered as living in Dubai is any indication, the émigrés may number far more than one million.

The people mobilized are overwhelmingly from low-income rural and non-Russian regions. Stories have emerged about recruits needing to provide their own equipment, including bandages in case of injury. Some received less than a week of training before being sent into combat. These conditions confirm the belief that the authorities view them as expendable cannon fodder. The result is widespread efforts to evade serving.

In an attempt to reduce the need for mobilization, other tactics were developed. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the paramilitary Wagner Group, toured Russian prisons to offer convicts the opportunity to serve six months in Ukraine in return for presidential pardons. Tens of thousands took him up on the offer and died at the front. Survivors have returned to Russia, with some resuming their criminal activity, including rape and murder.

Prigozhin perished when his plane was shot down a few months after he staged an aborted march to Moscow to convince Putin to fire military commanders the Wagner leader deemed incompetent. But his program lives on, and recent reports indicate it is being expanded to include female prisoners.

Ironically, while the convicts who survive their six-month contracts have been allowed to return home, Russians who have been fighting for two years or more are still on active duty. Their families are furious. One of the few significant protest groups left in Russia, “the Council of Wives and Mothers,” that has protested the length of time their husbands and sons have been forced to serve, was declared a foreign agent in July 2023 in an effort by Putin to stifle public awareness of the treatment of soldiers and overall casualties in the war.

Despite major recruitment efforts, Russia is not experiencing a major influx of new immigrants or returning compatriots. The full-scale war has further limited the already diminishing prospects of inducing a large share of the 30 million Russians living outside of Russia to return home. In 2006, Putin signed a decree establishing a program to encourage Russians to return, and some eight hundred thousand did so between 2006 and 2018. The number of both applications and returns declined in 2020 due to COVID-19. The numbers recovered slightly in 2021 but declined after the start of the full-scale war in 2022. In 2023 the number applying to return was the lowest in a decade. The number who did return dropped below the 2020 COVID-19 level:

Legislation designed to prohibit Russians—especially mobile IT workers—from working while abroad has provoked sharp battles between security services and Russian companies that depend on these employees in a tight labor market.

Treatment of Central Asian and other foreign labor migrants has increasingly shifted to forced labor and sometimes outright slavery. Central Asians working in Russia have been rounded up and sent to join the war on Ukraine. A study of the Uzbek community reports that many Uzbeks have been arrested for minor or contrived offenses and sentenced to terms of fifteen, twenty, or even twenty-five years. Once in prison, they are offered the Wagner option of “volunteering” to fight in Ukraine.

Predatory practices have extended beyond Russia’s usual sources of migrant workers. Individuals from Nepal, Syria, and India have been recruited to work in factories or as guards at various venues in Russia. After they arrive, their passports are confiscated and they are sent to fight in Ukraine. As during World War II, punishment squads are deployed to prevent soldiers from retreating. These predatory tactics differ from the treatment of Cuban and African mercenaries who are attracted by the money.

In addition to money, another inducement to attract foreign fighters is the offer of Russian citizenship. If these commitments are honored, the result will be to add more non-Russians to the country’s population. The disastrous long-term impact of the predatory recruitment policies is clear. As information (and bodies) reach families, word spreads. Russian programs to increase labor recruitment in Southeast Asia are being undermined as word of these tactics spreads.

Conclusion

Why would a leader who has proclaimed demography to be one of the most serious threats to a nation’s future launch an unprovoked war against a neighboring country that was a significant source of labor before 2014? We may never be able to answer this. We can conclude that Putin has turned a daunting crisis into a cataclysm.

Putin’s policies cannot solve these demographic problems. He has been reiterating the importance of Russia’s dire demographic situation for a quarter-century. Manipulating demographic data, adding people in occupied Ukrainian regions to Russia’s population, and omitting war casualties from the census do not generate sustainable population growth. These tactics cannot meet the needs of employers who report serious labor shortages in nearly every sector of the economy. Russia’s defense industry is operating “three shifts” by requiring workers to work sixty to seventy hours per week. The sustainability of these measures and the impact on quality raise significant questions. Financial incentives are undermined when workers are compelled to make “voluntary” contributions to fund the war effort.

In 2022–2023, the most serious labor shortages were reported in agriculture and construction, sectors that rely heavily on Central Asian migrants. Now Russia’s government is endeavoring to attract labor from India, Pakistan, and North Korea to replace the war casualties and émigrés. Firms involved in production, retail, logistics, and e-commerce face labor shortages. While manufacturers continue to prefer Russian workers, one company told journalists that bringing workers from India required paying salaries at the same level as those for Russian staff, plus the cost of transporting and registering the workers. Yet the company was looking for a contractor to arrange providing five hundred workers from India. The reasoning was that workers who lack Russian language are less likely to be recruited by competitors, while foreign workers who know Russian are more mobile.

A Russian entrepreneur noted that labor brokers in Kazakhstan smuggle thousands of workers from Bangladesh into that country in containers each year. They are now offering their services to Russian employers, suggesting that the same tactics can be used to bring workers from India. Others point out that labor from India remains crucial in several Middle Eastern countries where wages are higher, making Russia the option for the least skilled and least desirable migrants.

Sources of labor globally are increasing due to population growth in developing countries that face serious impacts from climate change. Demographers project that the major growth in global population during the rest of the twenty-first century will be in Africa. Yet the six African countries with the largest populations also appear on most lists of the places likely to face the greatest threats from climate change. As in Latin America, this will result in “green migration.” These are not traditional sources of labor for Russia, and the regime may choose to rely on these countries for mercenaries.

Putin’s government has not evinced visible concern that Russia’s population might be cut in half by century’s end. Unless Russia’s leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa.

If Putin truly believed that demography is an existential problem for Russia, he might have calculated how many Ukrainians lived or worked in Russia before annexing Crimea and launching an invasion.

Putin’s regime is both seeking and discouraging repatriation by compatriots. On February 1, 2024, Russian media reported new legislation allowing the government to seize property belonging to Russians outside the country who criticize the war on Ukraine. Multiple instances have been reported of Russian diplomats and security personnel demanding that other countries detain and repatriate Russians who speak freely. Threats to seize their property in Russia are a logical extension of policies threatening family members still living in Russia.

At the same time, Russia’s policy does encourage compatriots to return, even as other citizens continue to depart.

One possible solution to the problems compounding Russia’s labor shortage would be to decentralize policy, allowing Russian regions to make their own decisions about attracting foreign labor. The resulting competition could go a long way toward improving conditions for foreign workers. Regional development was the prime mover in China’s massive urbanization and industrialization after 1978. While this involved horizontal mobility within the country, the model would resemble the significant influx of immigrants that, at least thus far, has kept the US population at well above replacement level. As Russia’s population continues to decline, immigrants will be increasingly vital to economic recovery.

Invading Ukraine while facing a catastrophic demographic challenge appears to have been a massive folly for the Kremlin. Hubris based on an astonishing intelligence failure might account for the miscalculation. Another possible explanation is that Putin understood that Russia’s economic and demographic challenges mean the country would not be in a more favorable condition any time in the coming decades.

Every corner of Russia’s economy is experiencing personnel shortages, while war casualties continue to shrink the able-bodied population. Russians and their leaders must learn to value diversity, or Russia will have an increasingly smaller and older population. Either way, there will be fewer ethnic Russians.

About the author

Harley Balzer retired in July 2016 after 33 years in the Department of Government, School of Foreign Service, and associated faculty member of the History Department at Georgetown University. He was founding director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies from 1987-2001. Prior to Georgetown he taught at Grinnell College and Boston University, and held post-doctoral fellowships at Harvard’s Russian Research Center and the MIT Program in Science, Technology and Society. In 1982-83 he was a congressional fellow in the office of Congressman Lee Hamilton, where he helped secure passage of the Soviet-East-European Research and Training Act (Title VIII).

In 1992-93 Balzer served as executive director and chairman of the board of the International Science Foundation, George Soros’s largest program to aid the former Soviet Union. From 1998 to 2009, he was a member of the Governing Council of the Basic Research and Higher Education (BRHE) Program, funded by the MacArthur Foundation, Carnegie Corporation, and Russian Ministry of Education. BRHE established 20 Research and Education Centers at Russian Universities, and was significantly expanded by the Russian government using their own resources.

His publications have focused on Russian and Soviet history, Russian politics, Russian education, science and technology, and comparative work on Russia and China.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to promote policies that strengthen stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.

Related content

The post A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Can citizens’ assemblies help counter a rising populist tide in the West? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/can-citizens-assemblies-help-counter-a-rising-populist-tide-in-the-west/ Thu, 01 Aug 2024 13:28:02 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=782658 Germany’s initial steps at participatory democracy deserve a close look as one way to address rising populism that could threaten liberal democracies in the West.

The post Can citizens’ assemblies help counter a rising populist tide in the West? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Don’t be fooled by recent leftist and centrist electoral wins in France and the United Kingdom—the strength of right-wing populism is still a central through line for liberal democracies around the world. While each populist party carries its own national characteristics, a common driver of their recent increase in support has been the rejection of established political parties and criticism of much of the political, economic, and social order that has underpinned the West since the end of the Cold War. There has been much head-scratching and pontificating about what causes populism to take hold and how center-left and center-right politicians should respond.

Established political parties are now taking steps to win back support. Policymakers around the world should take note of these efforts, such as the use of citizens’ assemblies in Germany, as one way to counter this polarizing environment and rebuild trust in democratic systems.

Growing disillusionment and persistent divides

Germany is a compelling case study for the rise of populist ideology. Nearly thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the East-West divide in the country persists. To this day, people in eastern Germany often face fewer economic opportunities, underrepresentation in elite professions, power imbalances, and an aging population. As recently as 2019, 60 percent of Germans in the east perceived themselves as second-class citizens. While on the rise throughout Germany, it is in large part for these reasons that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party resonates in the eastern part of the country, in states such as Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Elections in all three in September see the AfD polling in first place.

The AfD was formed in 2013 in reaction to eurozone bailouts for other countries, but the 2015 refugee crisis transformed its platform into the extreme one it has today. When nearly one million migrants entered Germany, a majority of citizens called for an immigration cap. The AfD, weaponizing both economic and social grievances, built itself on and instigated this cultural discontent. The party trademarked “Islam does not belong to Germany” in its 2016 manifesto, and has taken aim at costly climate action to spur discontent with the center and fuel its own base. This approach propelled the AfD to ninety-two opposition seats in the Bundestag in 2017, and in the years since it has established itself as a formidable populist alternative to Germany’s traditional parties closer to the political center.

The AfD’s 2024 manifesto paints a worrying picture of its vision for Germany. The AfD proposes to reduce the net number of annual immigrants to zero and oppose all major climate actions, arguing such government encroachments threaten to unravel the cultural fabric and stability of German society. These extreme stances threaten to endanger the unity of Germany and could hamper international cooperation. The party is largely Euroskeptic, anti-American, and pro-Russian, which drives its urge to scale back on Ukraine aid. Notably, the far-right Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament kicked out the AfD in May of this year, following scandals surrounding its extreme statements and potential connections to China and Russia.

Nevertheless, the party remains relatively popular in Germany. It scored second among German parties in the European Parliament elections in June and could well secure more than a quarter of seats in state elections this fall. The AfD’s success has inspired other upstart parties on the left. The newly founded left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), for example, is expected to secure around 20 percent of seats across the three states, appealing to voters that are dissatisfied with the state of Germany’s economy and support for Ukraine.

The populist phenomenon is not exclusive to Germany. It is symptomatic of a general trend in the West. From gains in the European Parliament to momentum heading into the US presidential election, populism does not bode well for the liberal international order, especially at a time when intensifying global challenges demand collective solutions.

The long road to rebuilding trust

One strategy to counter illiberal tendencies and reengage citizens is the establishment of citizens’ assemblies: representative groups of randomly selected constituents that develop policy recommendations on a given issue based on expert briefings and discussions. The assemblies can be implemented at all political levels.

Citizens’ assemblies have been tried before. In various forms, they have been tested by several countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and France. They all share the goals of bringing participatory democracy to the public and reconnecting with voters who have lost trust in democracy.

These citizens’ assemblies have led to big changes before. In Ireland, the successful 2018 referendum to remove the Eighth Amendment banning most abortions stemmed from a recommendation from a ninety-nine-person-strong citizens’ assembly and helped end years of deadlock over the issue. A similar Convention on the Constitution in the country helped lead the way to the 2015 referendum on marriage equality.

In Germany, ten nationwide citizens’ assemblies have been convened since 2019, covering topics such as “Germany’s role in the world,” “climate action,” and “countering disinformation.” While the practical policy proposals are not binding, they do provide policymakers with valuable insights on current positions, possible compromises, and existing sticking points. Within just five years, the German citizens’ assemblies have grown from being independently organized by a nonprofit to being implemented by the Bundestag—an indication of the growing hope and trust politicians are placing on these fora.

The German approach isn’t perfect. Commentators have identified several challenges facing Germany’s citizens’ assemblies, including the representative selection of participants, the neutrality of moderators and experts, the optimal format and institutionalization of the assemblies, and the effect on participants and nonparticipating citizens.

And in truth, so far, it is too soon to see the impact of these assemblies in Germany. Mostly experimental in design, few concrete recommendations were implemented by policymakers. Some people believe the concept’s success hinges on the assembly on nutrition, food labeling, and food waste, the first citizens’ assembly instituted directly by the German Bundestag, which met in January 2024. The outcomes of this assembly included recommendations on school lunches and new regulations on energy drinks.

The participatory idea behind citizens’ assemblies cannot replace the parliamentary process. To avoid conflicts of legitimacy between participatory and representative democracy, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation recommends that parliaments initiate and mandate the process. It is crucial that the fora are not influenced externally and provide some flexibility regarding approach and outcome. They cannot be expected to arrive at predetermined conclusions and, depending on topic, composition, and mandate, every citizens’ assembly will be unique. To sustainably strengthen democracy and rebuild trust in political processes, it is important to complement the assembly with a broader public campaign. Linking the citizens’ assemblies with parliamentary institutions through the involvement of parliamentarians in the expert briefings could further improve the current system. Alternatively, an assembly could be followed by a referendum, giving citizens beyond those randomly chosen participatory power.

No easy fixes

Citizens’ assemblies alone are not sufficient to head off the rise of populists in Germany anytime soon: The AfD and BSW parties, for example, will very likely make gains in the eastern German elections this fall. Instead, the assemblies should be seen as part of a long-term strategy to address the root causes of voter dissatisfaction. 

It is imperative to see citizens’ assemblies for what they are. Policymakers should not expect a panacea for polarization. Instead, the fora are a piece of a bigger puzzle. Implementing citizens’ assemblies in tandem with regional structural policies can start the process of rebuilding trust in government. Until more citizens feel like they have a real voice in politics, the seeds of populism will likely continue to find fertile ground—in Germany, in the United States, and beyond.


Moritz Ludwig is a young global professional at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.

Joely Virzi is a young global professional at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.

The post Can citizens’ assemblies help counter a rising populist tide in the West? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Pavia in Haaretz: An Increasingly Dictatorial, Antisemitic President Threatens Tunisia’s Jews https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/pavia-in-haaretz-an-increasingly-dictatorial-antisemitic-president-threatens-tunisias-jews/ Wed, 31 Jul 2024 15:57:54 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=783880 The post Pavia in Haaretz: An Increasingly Dictatorial, Antisemitic President Threatens Tunisia’s Jews appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Pavia in Haaretz: An Increasingly Dictatorial, Antisemitic President Threatens Tunisia’s Jews appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Experts react: Maduro is clinging to power after a disputed election. What’s next for Venezuela? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/experts-react-maduro-is-clinging-to-power-after-a-disputed-election-whats-next-for-venezuela/ Mon, 29 Jul 2024 15:37:57 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=782590 Venezuela’s National Electoral Council has declared incumbent Nicolás Maduro as the winner of Sunday’s presidential election, in the face of widespread accounts of voter intimidation and other irregularities.

The post Experts react: Maduro is clinging to power after a disputed election. What’s next for Venezuela? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Voting doesn’t make a democracy—legitimate and transparent counting of the votes does. On Sunday, Venezuelans went to the polls to select their next president. Early on Monday, the Nicolás Maduro-controlled election committee declared Maduro, who took over the presidency from Hugo Chávez in 2013, the winner of another six-year term. The announcement came in the face of widespread accounts of voter intimidation and other irregularities meant to deny victory to opposition candidate Edmundo González, who led in pre-election polling. “The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened,” González said of the electoral committee’s dodgy results. Below, Atlantic Council experts sum up what to expect next in Venezuela and how the United States might respond.

Click to jump to an expert analysis:

Jason Marczak: The international community must apply pressure for a full, transparent vote count

Geoff Ramsey: Maduro is inviting the biggest loyalty test he’s faced in years

Iria Puyosa: A new cycle of heightened political turmoil looms over Venezuela

Diego Area: The world must stand with Venezuelans in their fight for free elections


The international community must apply pressure for a full, transparent vote count

The day after Venezuelans voted in massive numbers, it’s crystal clear that Maduro, a deeply unpopular authoritarian leader, was always going to claim electoral victory whether by hook or by crook. With most international observers banned from coming to the country to monitor the vote (except small United Nations and Carter Center delegations), the González campaign could only count on its own observers to verify results. The voting tabulations that opposition observers could verify (about 40 percent of the tabulations) showed González receiving 70 percent of the vote—a far cry from the 44 percent of votes that the country’s National Electoral Council claimed that González won.

It is important that the votes of the Venezuelan people are not an exercise in futility. Votes must be credibly counted. Here, it is imperative that the international community of democracies continue to resoundingly denounce fraud and take appropriate action. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people.” Similar concerns have been raised in nearby Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic. European partners have also raised concerns. Even in Colombia, where President Gustavo Petro has maintained a close relationship with Maduro, Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo made a “call for the total vote count, its verification, and independent audit to be carried out as soon as possible.”

The international community must continue to exact pressure so that the will of the Venezuelan people can ultimately prevail. Not doing so would mean being complicit in the disenfranchisement of the Venezuelan people. But another six years of Maduro will also have reverberations, including new outward migration flows and new transnational criminal activity that will extend far beyond Venezuela’s borders.

Jason Marczak is the vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.


Maduro is inviting the biggest loyalty test he’s faced in years

More than twelve hours after polls closed, the fact that authorities still haven’t released the full vote count tells you everything you need to know about yesterday’s election. It seems that Maduro has decided to condemn Venezuela to six more years of conflict and isolation. Unless the government backs up its claim of victory with the full results and opens the count up to audits from observers, the international community has no choice but to respond with swift condemnation and diplomatic pressure.

This isn’t over yet. Maduro has to convince the ruling elite that he can keep things under control, but both he and the military know that he can’t govern a country in flames. He’s effectively inviting the biggest loyalty test he’s faced in years. I doubt Venezuelan elites are eager for six more years of repression, sanctions, and economic catastrophe. The opposition, under María Corina Machado’s leadership, has maintained unity and message discipline, and has the evidence in hand to document fraud and mobilize the public against Maduro’s blatant power grab. The role of the United States and its allies in Latin America and Europe will be crucial. It’s time for greater multilateral coordination in order to push the government to respect the will of the people and restore Venezuelans’ fundamental right to elect their leaders.

Geoff Ramsey is a senior fellow at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.


A new cycle of heightened political turmoil looms over Venezuela

The presidential elections in Venezuela turned out as forecasted: a high voter turnout, what appeared to be a decisive electoral win for the democratic opposition, and a blatant fraud that disregarded the will of the voters. 

Due to the relatively small voting centers and the presence of witnesses from local communities, the population is convinced—as we’ve seen in an outpouring of messages and videos on social media—that González won in all electoral districts. This is strengthening the opposition’s unity and determination to continue its fight for the restoration of democracy. 

Maduro’s loss of political legitimacy has left the ruling coalition vulnerable to increased instability. It will likely resort to further repression against the political opposition and organized civil society. The increase in information censorship in the week leading up to the elections is a clear sign of the severe restriction of civic space. 

The democratic opposition, led by Machado, must aim to exploit divisions within the ruling coalition to weaken its power base. The Unitary Platform must also find ways to address public discontent without exposing the population to the violent repression experienced in 2017. 

On the international front, Maduro is facing isolation from Latin American democracies, the United States, and Europe. Former allies, such as Brazil under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombia under Petro, were among the first to demand transparency in the election results. It now falls upon the United States to reevaluate the Qatar agreements. The negotiations would no longer be centered on electoral coexistence but rather on Chavismo’s exit from power after its defeat in the voting booths. The next six months will be a crucial period of intense conflict in Venezuela. 

Iria Puyosa is a senior research fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab.


The world must stand with Venezuelans in their fight for free elections

No one thought it would be easy to remove an autocrat from power, but yesterday marked a new height in the Venezuelan government’s abuses to impede the will of the people. The people of Venezuela and their leadership have endured an epic journey to overcome obstacles and unite around the ideal of change. The disqualification of candidates like Machado and Corina Yoris, who represented genuine alternatives, and the subsequent voter suppression efforts and significant irregularities in the process, illustrate the regime’s determination to retain power at any cost.

Maduro’s actions to undermine the democratic process and steal this election pose grave consequences for the future of the country and have a direct impact on Latin America, the Caribbean, and the United States. By stifling free choice, the regime is not only eroding democratic institutions but also exacerbating the country’s humanitarian crisis. As a result, Venezuelans will continue to flee in search of opportunities and freedoms denied at home, contributing to an already critical migration crisis.

The world must stand with Venezuelans in their fight for a future where elections are not merely symbolic but are actual pathways to change. The integrity of the democratic process is crucial not only for Venezuela’s stability but also for the prosperity of the entire region.

Diego Area is a deputy director at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

The post Experts react: Maduro is clinging to power after a disputed election. What’s next for Venezuela? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Vladimir Putin’s history obsession is a threat to world peace https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/vladimir-putins-history-obsession-is-a-threat-to-world-peace/ Tue, 19 Mar 2024 20:29:14 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=750063 Putin has weaponized history to justify the genocidal invasion of Ukraine. Unless he is defeated, the Russian dictator will use the same bogus historical arguments to launch new imperial adventures, writes Nicholas Chkhaidze.

The post Vladimir Putin’s history obsession is a threat to world peace appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
History has always served as an ideological battlefield, but few rulers in the modern era have weaponized the past quite as ruthlessly as Vladimir Putin. For more than two years, the Russian dictator has sought to justify Europe’s largest invasion since World War II by portraying it as a sacred mission to reclaim “historically Russian lands.”

Putin’s preoccupation with history has become increasingly evident as his reign has progressed, and is closely linked to his deep-seated resentment over the perceived historical injustice of the 1991 Soviet collapse. As early as 2005, Putin was lamenting the breakup of the USSR as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

This sense of injustice has helped fuel Putin’s obsession with Ukraine, a neighboring country that many Russians still regard as a core part of their own nation’s historical heartlands. The existence of an independent Ukraine has long been resented by Putin as a symbol of modern Russia’s retreat from empire. Since the early years of his reign, he has made the subjugation of Ukraine one of his foreign policy priorities.

During the initial stages of the Kremlin campaign to reassert Russian authority over independent Ukraine, considerable effort was made to undermine the historical legitimacy of the Ukrainian state among Russian audiences and inside Ukraine itself. As Russian aggression against Ukraine escalated, the Kremlin’s war on Ukrainian history also expanded, with Ukrainians demonized as “Nazis” and dismissed as an “artificial nation.”

Years of increasingly hostile rhetoric paved the way for military aggression. When Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine in spring 2014 with the seizure of Crimea, he began referring to southern and eastern Ukraine as “Novorossiya” (“New Russia”). His decision to revive long-forgotten imperial terminology from the Czarist era was the clearest indication yet that Putin intended to extinguish Ukrainian statehood and reverse more than a century of European history.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Putin formalized his denial of Ukrainian statehood in a controversial history essay published in July 2021. Entitled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” this remarkable document laid out Putin’s rejection of Ukraine’s right to exist, while arguing at length that Ukrainians are actually Russians (“one people”). Putin’s essay laid the ideological groundwork for the full-scale invasion that commenced months later.

Over the past two years, history has remained a key front in the struggle to justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During the first summer of the war, Putin directly compared himself to Peter the Great and likened the invasion of Ukraine to the eighteenth century Russian Czar’s wars of imperial conquest.

A year later, Putin ordered the launch of new history textbooks for Russian schoolchildren along with curriculum changes with the apparent aim of legitimizing the ongoing military campaign to destroy the Ukrainian state and nation. This was part of a broader trend within Russia to bring the country’s official historical narrative into line with Putin’s increasingly radical brand of revisionism.

Strikingly, Putin chose to use his high-profile February 2024 interview with US media personality Tucker Carlson as a platform to frame the war in Ukraine as a quest for historical justice. While Carlson clearly wanted Putin to blame NATO and the US for the invasion, Putin himself preferred to embark on a rambling half-hour history lecture explaining the ancient roots of Russia’s claim to Ukraine.

Other senior Russian officials have taken their lead from Putin’s weaponized version of history. The most prominent example of this trend is former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who regularly employs historical references in his frequent attacks on Ukraine and the wider Western world. “One of Ukraine’s former leaders once said Ukraine is not Russia. That concept needs to disappear forever. Ukraine is definitely Russia,” he declared in March 2024.

With the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine now in its third year, Putin’s historical motivations are becoming more and more apparent. He regularly declares that major Ukrainian cities such as Odesa and entire regions of Ukraine are “historically Russian,” indicating that his imperial ambitions are still far from satisfied.

Many are now asking how far Putin intends to go. He has often expressed his belief that the Soviet Union was the Russian Empire under a different name. If Putin takes his crusade to reclaim “historically Russian lands” further and expands the definition to include all of the former Czarist domains, this would place more than a dozen additional countries at risk of suffering the same fate as Ukraine.

Putin has weaponized history to justify the genocidal invasion of Ukraine and dehumanize the entire Ukrainian nation. Unless he is stopped in Ukraine, the Russian dictator will use the same bogus historical arguments to launch new imperial adventures.

Nicholas Chkhaidze is a Research Fellow at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Vladimir Putin’s history obsession is a threat to world peace appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Russian imperialism shapes public support for the war against Ukraine https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russian-imperialism-shapes-public-support-for-the-war-against-ukraine/ Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:37:39 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=689466 Modern Russia retains an imperialistic ideology that is fueling strong public support for the war in Ukraine amid deep-rooted perceptions of Ukrainians as misguided younger siblings in need of correction, writes Neringa Klumbytė.

The post Russian imperialism shapes public support for the war against Ukraine appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
When the bombs first began falling on Kyiv in February 2022, I thought the Russian people would immediately recognize the senselessness of it all and rise up to stop the war. After all, for more than seventy years since the end of World War II, Russians had joined their fellow Europeans in proclaiming “never again.”

A small wave of protests did briefly erupt in the immediate aftermath of the full-scale invasion, but within a few weeks the streets of Russia’s towns and cities were once again empty. Some Russians protested by leaving the country, but the biggest exodus was into silence. Apart from a few notable exceptions, those who opposed the invasion clearly felt unable to make a difference.

While any attempts to gauge public opinion in authoritarian regimes such as Putin’s Russia should be treated with a high degree of skepticism, the available data indicates that many Russians do indeed back the invasion. Russia’s only internationally respected independent pollster, the Levada Center, has identified overwhelming support in its monthly surveys, with more than 70% of respondents consistently voicing their approval of the so-called “Special Military Operation.” Anecdotal evidence, including the pro-war opinions expressed by large numbers of Russians in private conversations with their Ukrainian relatives since the beginning of the war, has further strengthened perceptions of widespread Russian public support.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

In the West, it has become common to explain this pro-war sentiment by arguing that Russians have been brainwashed by the Kremlin-controlled state media. Some commentators also mention widespread Russian apathy and disengagement from politics. However, these explanations risk infantilizing Russian society and stereotyping Russians as passive conformists with no agency of their own.

Most Western observers struggle to perceive Russian support for the war as a conscious choice because they are unable to accept that supporting a genocidal war could ever be seen as rational. Nevertheless, studies of past wars of aggression and authoritarianism tell us that the protagonists of evil typically regard their actions as both reasonable and justifiable. In Russia’s case, it is the country’s imperial past and the imperial intimacy of the Russian relationship with Ukraine that serve to justify the current war.

This imperial intimacy reflects deeply rooted historical ideas of kinship and fraternity that have encouraged generations of Russians to view Ukrainians as part of their nation. It is a hierarchical intimacy, with Ukrainians cast in the role of “little brothers” in need of protection and tutelage. This encompasses the necessity of “disciplining” Ukrainians for their own good. Such thinking is a central pillar of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “Russian World” ideology.

Putin’s notorious July 2021 essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” was a manifesto of imperial intimacy that openly questioned Ukraine’s right to statehood while denying the existence of a separate Ukrainian nation. Instead, Putin argued, Ukrainians were really Russians (“one people”). On the eve of the full-scale invasion, he declared that Ukraine was “an inalienable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space.”

Officially, the Kremlin has sought to justify the war by pointing to decades of post-Cold War NATO expansion while portraying Ukraine as a far-right threat to Russia itself. However, when addressing domestic audiences, Putin has often been more open about his imperial agenda. Speaking in summer 2022, he compared the current invasion to the eighteenth century imperial conquests of Russian Czar Peter the Great and claimed it was now his turn to “return” Russian lands. A few months later, Putin oversaw a lavish Kremlin ceremony marking the “annexation” of four Ukrainian provinces. Amid the unmistakable trappings of empire, he declared that these partially occupied Ukrainian regions had returned to Russia “forever.”

Such imperial posturing in relation to Ukraine resonates widely with the Russian public. Many Russians see today’s war as an historic mission to overcome the injustice of the Soviet collapse and reunite their country with Ukraine following decades of “artificial separation.” The imperial intimacy underpinning their attitudes toward Ukraine allows them to overlook the obvious opposition of the Ukrainian people to this reunion.

Over the past twenty months of full-scale warfare, denial of Ukrainian statehood and talk of imperial revival have become prominent features of Russia’s heavily censored and carefully choreographed information space. Ukrainians are routinely dehumanized and Ukraine itself is dismissed as an intolerable “anti-Russia.” Meanwhile, pundits on Russian state TV regularly discuss the need to exile or annihilate large numbers of Ukrainians. This genocidal rhetoric is typically framed as the inevitable price of achieving historical justice and saving Ukrainians from themselves.

While it is convenient to blame today’s war on Vladimir Putin and view it as the product of one man’s criminal fantasies, the problem of Russian imperialism is far bigger than Putin alone. Many millions of ordinary Russians support the war because they continue to view Ukraine through the distorting prism of imperial intimacy.

The situation is unlikely to change until a majority of Russians recognize that true patriotism means acknowledging past injustices bestowed by empire on Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Lithuanians, Chechens, and many others. This would open the way for the emergence of a new Russia with the potential to live in peace with its neighbors while finally realizing its vast potential. Unless this change occurs, Russian imperialism will remain a major destabilizing factor in global security.

Neringa Klumbytė is director of the Lithuania Program at Miami University’s Havighurst Center for Russian and Post-Soviet Studies.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Russian imperialism shapes public support for the war against Ukraine appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#AtlanticDebrief – What’s the link between politics & identity in Europe? | A Debrief from Hans Kundnani https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-debrief/atlanticdebrief-whats-the-link-between-politics-identity-in-europe-a-debrief-from-hans-kundnani/ Tue, 12 Sep 2023 20:31:57 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=680868 Rachel Rizzo sits down with Hans Kundnani to discuss his new book on European identity and its relationship with the European project.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – What’s the link between politics & identity in Europe? | A Debrief from Hans Kundnani appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

IN THIS EPISODE

What’s the best way to think about European identity and the EU? How do concepts of civic and ethnic nationalism play out in Europe today? As far-right parties increasingly reject Euroscepticism, how might the political landscape in the EU change? What could this mean for next year’s European elections?

On this episode of #AtlanticDebrief, Rachel Rizzo sits down with Hans Kundnani, Associate Fellow in the Europe Programme at Chatham House, to discuss his new book on European identity and its relationship with the European project.

You can watch #AtlanticDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – What’s the link between politics & identity in Europe? | A Debrief from Hans Kundnani appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#AtlanticDebrief – Where is Europe headed politically? | A Debrief from Jon Henley https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-debrief/atlanticdebrief-where-is-europe-headed-politically-a-debrief-from-jon-henley/ Tue, 22 Aug 2023 13:02:39 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=674518 Rachel Rizzo speaks with the Guardian's Jon Henley to unpack the shifting political trends in Europe.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – Where is Europe headed politically? | A Debrief from Jon Henley appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

IN THIS EPISODE

To what extent are we witnessing the rise of the far-right in Europe? What is driving European voters to support far-right candidates? As we gear up for the European Parliament elections next year, what do these political shifts mean for the European project as a whole?

On this episode of #AtlanticDebrief, Rachel Rizzo sits down with Jon Henley, the Guardian’s Europe correspondent, to discuss to what extent the far-right is becoming more politically mainstream in Europe today.

You can watch #AtlanticDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – Where is Europe headed politically? | A Debrief from Jon Henley appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#AtlanticDebrief – What’s the outcome of Spain’s snap election? | A Debrief from Manuel Muñiz https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-debrief/atlanticdebrief-whats-the-outcome-of-spains-snap-election-a-debrief-from-manuel-muniz/ Thu, 27 Jul 2023 15:28:04 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=661968 Rachel Rizzo sits down with Manuel Muñiz to examine the results of Spain's snap election and impact to Spanish society and politics.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – What’s the outcome of Spain’s snap election? | A Debrief from Manuel Muñiz appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

IN THIS EPISODE

What do the results of Spain’s snap election mean for Spanish politics and Spain’s EU Council presidency? What explains the performance of Spain’s main political parties and the discrepancy in pre-election polls? Are the results of the election reflective of a divided Spanish society?

On this episode of #AtlanticDebrief, Rachel Rizzo sits down with Manuel Muñiz, Provost of IE University in Madrid, to examine the results of the parliamentary elections and impacts to Spanish society and politics.

You can watch #AtlanticDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – What’s the outcome of Spain’s snap election? | A Debrief from Manuel Muñiz appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Wagner putsch is symptomatic of Russia’s ongoing imperial decline https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/wagner-putsch-is-symptomatic-of-russias-ongoing-imperial-decline/ Thu, 06 Jul 2023 20:14:43 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=662113 The attempted putsch by Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his Wagner troops in late June is perhaps best understood as a symptom of Russia’s ongoing imperial decline, writes Richard Cashman and Lesia Ogryzko.

The post Wagner putsch is symptomatic of Russia’s ongoing imperial decline appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The attempted putsch by Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his Wagner troops in late June is perhaps best understood as a symptom of Russia’s ongoing imperial decline. Much like the invasion of Ukraine itself, it is part of a broader historical process that can be traced back to 1989 and the fall of the Soviet incarnation of the Russian Empire in Central and Eastern Europe.

Anyone looking to make sense of recent events in Russia should begin by noting that Prigozhin’s dramatic actions were not aimed at ending the war in Ukraine or steering Russia away from its increasingly totalitarian course. On the contrary, he sought to correct mistakes in the conduct of the invasion by effecting changes in the country’s military leadership.

This should come as no surprise. The vast majority of Prigozhin’s public statements about the invasion of Ukraine align him with prominent ultranationalists, which in the Russian context translates into imperial reactionaries. This group is demanding a fuller commitment to the war against Ukraine which, with Belarus, it sees as the core of Russia’s imperial heartlands. Ideally, this group wants to see full mobilization of Russia’s citizens and the country’s productive capacity for the war effort.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Prigozhin is not generally regarded as a member of Putin’s inner circle, but he is believed to have supporters within the Kremlin elite, some of whom may have backed or sympathized with his uprising. This support reflects widespread demands among members of the Russian establishment for national leadership that can arrest and reverse the process of imperial retreat which began in 1989.

It is also clear that Prigozhin enjoyed significant backing from ordinary Russians and, probably, ordinary soldiers. Support for Prigozhin amongst the Russian public is rooted in anger over the mismanagement of the invasion and endemic state corruption along with dissatisfaction over the prospect of increasing costs without identifiable gains in Ukraine.

The scale of public sympathy for the putsch could be seen in videos of Rostov-on-Don residents congratulating Wagner troops on capturing the city while bringing them food and water. It was also striking that Rostov-on-Don and its Southern Military District headquarters were seized without a fight, while Wagner troops were able to advance to within two hundred kilometers of Moscow virtually unopposed, despite passing close to numerous Russian army bases. Prigozhin’s tough rhetoric and hawkish attacks on Russia’s military leadership clearly resonate widely among large numbers of ordinary Russians.

Prigozhin’s abruptly abandoned putsch reinforces the lesson that coups are relatively common in Russia, whereas genuine revolutions are not. Vladimir Putin and the clan which took control of Russia at the turn of the millennium in many ways see themselves as the heirs to the 1991 coup plotters who attempted but failed to prevent the unravelling of the USSR. Their own vulnerability to being overthrown in similar fashion has now been laid bare before the Russian public and the wider world.

The course of the war to date, including cross-border incursions by Ukrainian-backed Russian militias into Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions, had already fractured the facade of monolithic strength so carefully projected by the Kremlin throughout Putin’s twenty-three-year reign. Prigozhin’s putsch has further exposed the brittleness of the regime and of the Russian state. It has highlighted the very real possibility of turmoil and transformation within the country, which so many observers previously thought impossible.

Policymakers around the world must now prepare for a range of dramatic scenarios in Putin’s Russia. This planning should involve studying the more than 100 nationalities within the Russian Federation, their cultures and political aspirations, as well as possible fracture lines between regional and business interests.

More specifically, governments must begin to plan for a post-Putin Russia. Putin’s elderly clan represents the last of the Soviet-era elites and their distinct embrace of Russia’s imperial consciousness. That imperial identity will not disappear overnight, but Putin’s obvious overreach in Ukraine and events like Prigozhin’s putsch are likely to engender a less certain sense of imperial destiny.

Putin has emerged from the Wagner putsch a significantly weakened figure, especially among members of the Russian establishment who once saw him as a guarantor of stability. He has also been embarrassed internationally and now looks a far less reliable partner for countries such as China, India, and Brazil that have so far sought to remain neutral over the invasion of Ukraine.

Moving forward, there will be considerable paranoia within the Russian establishment as suspicion swirls regarding potentially shifting loyalties. Rumors continue to circulate regarding measures targeting military and security service personnel who failed to oppose the Wagner uprising. The invasion of Ukraine has already seriously eroded trust within Russian society; Prigozhin’s actions and Putin’s timid response will intensify this negative trend.

Ukraine’s partners cannot control the processes set in train by the Wagner episode, but they can surge military support for Ukraine and embrace bolder policies that reflect the revealed weakness of the Putin regime. The fact that Putin was apparently prepared to strike a deal with Prigozhin further demonstrates that the Russian dictator is inclined to back down rather than escalate when confronted by a resolute opponent or faced with the prospect of possible defeat.

Prigozhin’s putsch was a brief but revealing event in modern Russian history. It hinted at deep-seated dissatisfaction among both the elite and the Russian public over the country’s inability to reclaim what it perceives as its imperial heartlands, and served as a reminder that the imperial Russian state is still collapsing.

The Russian decline that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall is ongoing, with Putin and his clan seeking but failing to reverse the settlement of 1991. This path has led to a war based on imperial fantasies that may now hasten the real end of empire. The Wagner putsch did not bring down Putin’s regime which seeks to maintain empire, but it may come to be seen as the beginning of its end.

Richard Cashman and Lesia Ogryzko are fellows at the Centre for Defence Strategies.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Wagner putsch is symptomatic of Russia’s ongoing imperial decline appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
How the women and girls of Iran have fueled their ‘unprecedented’ protests: Bravery, solidarity, and innovation https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/how-the-women-and-girls-of-iran-have-fueled-their-unprecedented-protests-bravery-solidarity-and-innovation/ Thu, 11 May 2023 18:23:49 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=644770 Three recipients of the Atlantic Council’s Distinguished Humanitarian Leadership Award examined the antigovernment protests in Iran and the decades-long fight for gender equality and social justice in the country.

The post How the women and girls of Iran have fueled their ‘unprecedented’ protests: Bravery, solidarity, and innovation appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Watch the event

Event transcript

Uncorrected transcript: Check against delivery

Speakers

Azam Jangravi
Iranian women’s rights advocate and a Girl of Revolution Street

Mehrangiz Kar
Iranian women’s rights lawyer and writer

Nazanin Nour
Iranian-American actor, writer, and activist

Moderator

Ali Rogin
Correspondent, PBS NewsHour

Introductory remarks

Holly Dagres
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs;
Editor, MENASource and IranSource

HOLLY DAGRES: Good morning, everyone. My name is Holly Dagres, and I am a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, and I’m honored here to give remarks for today’s Atlantic Council Front Page event.

Zan, zendegi, azadi—“women, life, freedom”—the slogan heard across the globe. Contrary to the lack of media coverage, this month marks eight months of ongoing protests in Iran against the Islamic Republic. Protests that are taking place in various ways, from street gatherings, rooftop chants, graffiti, to public displays of not wearing mandatory hijab. This continuity is unprecedented. The clerical establishment is in a tinderbox situation, and it’s only a matter of time before the protesters pour into the streets en masse because the people of Iran have had enough. They want the regime gone.

As I speak over thirteen thousand schoolgirls have been poisoned at schools across the country. Many believe this is a punishment for their participation in anti-establishment protests. Additionally, in the past two weeks there have been an alarming rise in executions, with over fifty-seven executed. Human rights organizations widely believe that these wave of executions are an effort to instill fear and silence dissent. Every day, women remain defiant against mandatory hijab, by appearing in the streets without the veil. And even in some cases, dresses and shorts, items of clothing only seen at home, behind closed doors, ordinary freedoms we here take for granted.

The world admires and applauds the bravery of the people of Iran, but especially their women and girls. As an American of Iranian heritage, I’m absolutely thrilled to introduce this incredible cohort of Iranian women who will be accepting the 2023 Distinguished Humanitarian Leadership Award on behalf of the women and girls of Iran at tonight’s Annual Distinguished Leadership Awards… which I should note will be livestreamed.

Dr. Mehrangiz Kar is a human rights lawyer and an activist. She was one of the first women attorneys to oppose the Islamization of gender relations following the Iranian revolution of 1979. Kar has been an active public defender in Iran’s civil and criminal courts, and has lectured extensively both in Iran and abroad.

Azam Jangravi is an Iranian paralegal, human rights advocate, and former political prisoner, residing in Canada. She is primarily known for being one of the girls of revolution street during the protests against compulsory hijab in 2017. Jangravi was taken into custody in 2018 after removing her headscarf in protest on Enghelab Street, standing atop an electricity transformer box, and waving it above her head. She was later released temporarily on bail and fled from Iran to Turkey, before relocating to Canada.

Nazanin Nour is an Iranian-American actress, writer, and activist. She has appeared on shows such as Netflix’s “Big Mouth,” “Madam Secretary,” and “Persia’s Got Talent,” and can currently be seen in the film “A Thousand Little Cuts” on Showtime. Nour could most recently be seen on stage in Washington starring in the studio theatre production of “English.” She is one of several Iranian Americans in the public eye speaking out on the ongoing situation in Iran.

I’d like to also note that Dr. Mahnaz Afkhami is sick with COVID-19 and was unable to attend, but she is recovering.

Finally, I’m delighted to introduce our brilliant moderator, Ali Rogin, of PBS NewsHour. Ali, over to you.

ALI ROGIN: Holly, thank you so much, and welcome to everybody in the room today and to all our viewers tuning in online, and I’m honored to be joined by these three incredible women.

As Holly mentioned, we are here today to discuss the state of women’s rights and human rights in Iran from prerevolution all the way to the current zan, zendegi, azadi movement and we can do all that in forty-five minutes. That is a very steep task but I know that this is a very well-equipped group to do just that. So let’s get right into it.

The first question I’m going to ask and, parenthetically, before I do I want to note I’m going to ask a few questions and then we’re going to open it up to questions from the audience here and online. So please submit your questions in the format that’s already been presented to the group, and for this panel each of the questions I’m going to ask, the first one will be open-ended, and then each one will be directed to one of you specifically. But I invite anybody to weigh in as well.

So the first question—as Holly mentioned, the Islamic Republic is doubling down on its repressive tactics. It’s increased. There have been thirteen thousand schoolgirls that have been poisoned. Hangings are at a historic high. So what do these oppressive measures tell you about the state of the regime and whether or not it is under pressure from these protests? Whoever would like to begin. Maybe we go down the line.

Dr. Kar?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: OK. As you know, in this movement regular women, students of university, students of high school, all labor and they are involved with that, and in zan, zendegi, azadi all Iranian women from all layers of the society, they are—they were working and now they are working in some other style.

And something that you asked about that, like poisoning, poisoning daughters in high schools, we think the—you know, the reason is because they were working a lot in the movement. And one of their activity was—because probably you don’t know that in schoolbooks, the first page is a picture of Khomeini and the second page is a picture of Khamenei, and the students of high school, sometimes they—you know, they taking out these pictures from their schoolbooks and simply removing—removing—

ALI ROGIN: And they’re removing [them] from the—from the walls?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: Yeah, removing, in front of the camera—in front of the camera. And these, you know, film and video posted to some media outside the country, and that’s the reason.

I think they are very against the against daughters in high school. And we think that now this is some kind of revenge sometimes… and the government doesn’t care about that and doesn’t say anything and doesn’t investigate—very serious investigate in that, and they don’t say what is this. Sometimes, they say something that is not true… They say that this is not true. This is something that, you know, they pretend that there is nothing, there is no poison.

And this is something that the people in Iran, now they are very angry with that because the students of—women students, daughters and students of high schools, they don’t have any safety, any security. And the parents now, they are very angry. And they go around the high schools, and they say: If the government cannot guarantee our daughter’s life and our daughter’s security, we will go around the high school and we will, you know, find something that they poison them, and this is our duty if the government doesn’t do their duty.

ALI ROGIN: So that’s going to be a big test.

But I’m curious to get all your thoughts—and I apologize; we didn’t discuss this in advance—but who do you think is behind these poisonings?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: The government.

ALI ROGIN: Is it the government?

NAZANIN NOUR: I mean, everybody believes it’s regime—the regime is complicit, because this is also a regime that has eyes and ears everywhere. They’re able to—they kidnap dissidents abroad, and bring them back to—for execution. They have intelligence on dissidents abroad. There was the, you know, kidnapping that was—that the FBI foiled the plot against a leading voice, Masih Alinejad. So, it’s very difficult for anybody to believe that a regime that uses facial recognition technology to send tickets to women who aren’t wearing their hijab properly, cannot find out who’s behind these poisonings. So, everybody believes that the regime is actually behind this.

And it’s been going on since November of 2022, so that’s months now that this has been happening. And there’s countless videos on the internet from activist groups within Iran that are showing girls in hospitals, you know, with oxygen masks. They can’t breathe, they smell tangerine in the air, or rotten fish in the air. So, it’s very real.

And I know that the regime tries to downplay it, but, you know, it’s also very difficult to kind of loiter around a girls’ school in Iran. And so, again, it’s—again, that’s why it’s very difficult for anybody to believe that the regime is not complicit in this. Parents that have gone to ask questions are met with brute force by regime forces. So, not only are no answers being given, this is still continuing as of just a few days ago, we saw videos from other poisonings. And it’s across all cities and provinces in Iran, too. So—

ALI ROGIN: So, what I’m—what I’m curious about is—Azam, is this an example of the regime really feeling the pressure, that they are taking these steps of poisoning young girls?

AZAM JANGRAVI: Actually, I don’t know. It’s really complicated. But it might be the regime is behind of this situation.

Mehrangiz and Nazanin mentioned about poisoning, and I want to talk about executions. Well, the government is now trying to create fear among people by increasing executions. In the past ten days, over fifty-five people have been executed in—from in which twenty-six Baloch citizens executed. And I think—this by the suppression of Islamic Republic of Iran.

But the protest is ongoing in Balochistan, and every Friday they shut down the internet. And I think we have to talk about Balochistan and Kurdistan and—because the suppression in that areas every time increased by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

ALI ROGIN: That’s a very, very important point.

Azam, I want to stay with you and ask, let’s take a step back and let’s talk about the factors that led to this round of protests.

AZAM JANGRAVI: The protests that begin in mid-September were unprecedented in their scale and duration. People from all level of society, including women of various cities and social classes, came together to demand change.

A key point of contention was the mandatory hijab laws, which require all Iranian women to cover their hair. And although the protests were initially led by women, they soon expand to include men as well. The government attempt to suppress the protest with violence and repression, but the movement continued to grow and gained momentum. People from different backgrounds joined in—driven by a shared sense of frustration with the current government. While there have been some reports of misinformation circulating about the government’s intention, most people understand that the issue of mandatory hijab is just one of the many issue that need to be addressed.

It is clear that until there is real change in Iran, people will continue to demand change and speak out against the injustices in Iran. As I said, the government is now trying to create really fear among people by execution. Two men were executed in the past week, Yousef Mehrdad and Sadrollah Fazeil Zare were executed for just running online group criticizing Islam. Dual Swedish-Iranian citizen also executed last week. Additionally, more than eleven individuals are currently on deaths way—on death row in connection with the now recent protests. The world has been outraged by these killings and has called on Iran to stop them. We need to act now and raise our voices and call on the Islamic Republic to stop their executions.

ALI ROGIN: Nazanin, to Azam’s point about the need to raise your voice, we’ve seen some really interesting subversive ways that protesters, especially the young women and girls in Iran, are using social media. They’re using just formats that the regime is not familiar with to register their dissent. So does that add a new dimension that we haven’t seen before in previous iterations of these protests? And how is that affecting how this message is being communicated to the regime?

AZAM JANGRAVI: Yeah, absolutely. Social media’s been a huge help actually in this movement. It’s the first time that we’ve seen it. Gen Z is very adept at using TikTok and Instagram, and figuring out how to make things trend and go viral. An example of that is the video of the girls of Ekbatan. I don’t know if everybody saw that video, but there’s a song by Rema, a popular Afrobeats artist, with Selena Gomez. And they have a song called “Calm Down.” So these young girls made this dance video, and then they were detained afterward, of course, and had to give a forced apology video.

But that went viral. And that caused everybody around the world, from various countries—I mean, this—it was, like, trending billions in hashtags on TikTok. And it raised awareness for people to understand what’s actually happening in Iran. It gives people outside of Iran a connection to those inside showing, hey, we’re actually more similar than you might think, because a lot of people don’t have information on what Iran was like prior to 1979 either. And so social media’s been a really huge tool in pushing this forward.

And this is also—the Gen Zers are the ones who were at the forefront of all of this. And as Dr. Kar and Azzi said, this is—these poisonings seem to be a retaliation for the fact that they have been ripping up pieces of the supreme leader, they’ve been setting fire, there’s countless photos now that are iconic, that Time replicated, with the girls with their backs to the camera with the middle finger. So all of these things that they’re doing, they’re very smart. They know exactly how to get the attention of people across the world, and it’s—we have never seen that level of social media activity to move a movement forward when it comes to Iran.

ALI ROGIN: And it’s fascinating because it really does seem to be techniques using forums that are just completely unfamiliar to especially the conservative clerics.

So Dr. Kar, for you, you have—for a long time, part of your scholarship has been about tracking the divisions between the moderates, the reformers within the government, and the hardliners, looking from the 1990s to now. So can you get us up to date on what is the balance, what is the tension currently in the regime between moderates and conservatives? Is there any tension there, or is it just completely overrun by conservatives? How do you see those tensions playing out now, versus in previous decades where there was a bit of a reformist element?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: At the beginning I would like say that I practiced as a lawyer twenty-two years in Islamic Republic of Iran, so when I started to practice as a lawyer in Iran I was very young, and immediately we had Islamic—the revolution, Islamic Revolution and victory of Khomeini in this revolution. So I had been in a very complicated situation, not because I was a lawyer but because I was a woman and lawyer. I think two criminal in their eyes, because they—immediately they said that women cannot be judge, so they removed all female judge from judiciary system. And we were not sure that they give us permission to continue work as a lawyer, but they did, and they said because everybody is able to choose a lawyer, probably a mad lawyer, a crazy lawyer, and this is—and Islam—Islam doesn’t care about that. This is something that the people—

ALI ROGIN: If you want to choose a female lawyer, that’s your choice.

MEHRANGIZ KAR: Yes, is your choice; if you want to choose a mad, you know, lawyer, that is your choice. And that’s why we could survive. This was the reason, the base of our job.

So I can say that since Khomeini ordered for mandatory hijab, this movement started in Iran and continued. But sometimes it was very slow, it was very hard; sometimes it was getting clear and obvious. I can say that in first decade we were very, very active for mandatory hijab. And for something that is full of, you know, our penal code and family law after they came on power are full of discriminations against women, gender discrimination, and we can say this is some kind of gender apartheid. But we cannot have demonstration. Just somebody like me started talking and writing about these legal discriminations.

After that, the second we had involved with a very bad war between Iran and Iraq, and eight years we had been involved with that. And that’s why everything was closed about women’s rights and human rights, and nobody could talk about that in any other country that is involved with war. So we can say that during the time everything was slow or nothing. Nothing was active in that.

After war, after eight years that the war was over, Hashemi Rafsanjani was on power as president and he ordered open very small, very small opportunity for writing and talking about something, but under control—under very heavy control.

ALI ROGIN: And remind us, this is in the 1990s?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: 1990s, yes. And because I should make short everything, this is history and it is not easy—

ALI ROGIN: No, it—you’re doing a great job.

MEHRANGIZ KAR: After 1990, we reached 1996. And 1996 is very important period of revolution history started because the name is reformism movement. And the president, Khatami, and the people—most people of Iran, for the first time they voted to a president of this system, this political system. After that, because the slogan was different like rule of law and like we should—we should have civil society, it was very important because he ordered and the reformists ordered that women can have independent NGO. And it was very helpful for women. It was the first time that something like that happened in Iran.

But either during this time they didn’t give me permission because it—

ALI ROGIN: How interesting, during the reformist era.

MEHRANGIZ KAR: No, yeah, everything was under control. And they said: No, no, you cannot. You cannot have any NGO. And I do have all documents of that.

But some of young Iranian women, they could register and they could be active as NGO. This was something that started, you know, another kind of—

ALI ROGIN: Activism, or another kind of activism, or—

MEHRANGIZ KAR: Yes, yes, yes, as NGO.

ALI ROGIN: Yeah.

MEHRANGIZ KAR: And it—and they could be very active.

And then, after that, we had some campaign like one million signature and no to stoning and something like that. And Iranians—some part of Iranian women, they came to streets and it was very important. They came to public area, and they were talking and they were giving a slogan against discriminations, not against political system.

But after that, step by step, Ahmadinejad came and stopped everything and suppressed all women activists. And you know, they—most of them, they left Iran, and now they are all over the world. And after that, everybody thought that everything is stopped and never—you know, never be active about women’s rights. But as you know and as you see now, everything is full of energy and started a movement: Mahsa; and zan, zendegi, azadi. This is full of energy. This is full of anger. And this is different with some other that we had been before that.

ALI ROGIN: And to—Dr. Kar, to your point about how many activists left Iran, so now the diaspora is very rich, very, very vocal. And so, Nazanin, I’m curious to get your sense of what is the state of the diaspora now? Are they united around these protests, any more so than perhaps the cohesion was in previous years?

NAZANIN NOUR: Yeah. I want to say, just to that point too that you brought up of differences in the government, reforms, et cetera, that the people—the information coming out of Iran and people I talk to on the ground, most people don’t see any difference between any—they all think it’s the—you know, they’re all cut from the same cloth. So it’s a regime that’s irreformable and irredeemable in the eyes of the overwhelming majority of Iranians.

To the diaspora, yes, I remember in 2009 I was actually in Iran. I got there two days before the election, the Green Movement elections. And I witnessed what happened afterward, which was the violent suppression and oppression by the state to quash those protests. And I remember that it must have been like a blip in the American media. Maybe it was in a forty-eight-hour news cycle, and then it was gone. And so—and we’ve had protests that have built up in Iran since—you know, for the last twelve to thirteen years. But if you just want to go back, 2017, 2018, 2019. There was bloody November in 2019, fifteen thousand protesters got killed within a few days and it wasn’t on the news at all.

And now we saw that actually, yeah, the diaspora rallied around the people of Iran. I had never seen that level of unity in the entire time that I’ve lived in this country, as far as, you know, giving a spotlight and attention to Iran. There’s protests and rallies that have been held in—major protests and rallies held in cities and countries all over the world ever since September. Most of them are happening in cities every weekend.

And while we would love more media coverage, and attention, and a spotlight kept on Iran and all the atrocities—the poisonings, the executions, the fact that the people want this regime gone—the unity that I’ve seen and the level of attention is something that I’ve never seen before. And it’s absolutely necessary and vital to keep, you know, because their internet gets cut off. They don’t have the means, a lot of the times, to get the messages out. So it is up to the people in the diaspora to continue to amplify their voice and make sure that the world hears what they’re saying and what’s actually happening inside of the country.

ALI ROGIN: Absolutely.

Let’s take a couple questions from the audience. I invite anybody who has a question. While you’re thinking of your questions, I’d love to ask, Azam, you were one of the kind of, as we say, OGs of the anti-hijab movement. You stood on an electric transformer, as we said. You’re a girl of revolution street, which is where these protests were happening. So what does it mean to you to see these women and young girls in the streets now?

AZAM JANGRAVI: The fight for women’s rights in Iran has been ongoing for over forty-four years, as Mehrangiz says. One of the first protests against mandatory hijab in Iran occurred on March 8, 1980, where women have used various campaigns, activist groups, NGOs, to protest the violation of their rights and demand justice and equality. However, they have paid heavy price for their activism, including suppression, threats, imprisonments, and mental and physical torture.

In 2018, when I decided to protests against mandatory hijab, there were already ongoing protests against the regime in Iran. The Iranian public was expressing their anger in the protests with a wide range of chants directed towards the regime and its leadership. In the same days, Vida Movahed performed a symbolic act of taking her scarf off and putting it on a stick to peacefully protest hijab laws—a brave move that followed forty years of women’s activism. And this is important because the forty-four years ongoing activism, you know? And I also wanted to be part of these forty-year-old movement and raise my voice against mandatory hijab laws.

As an Iranian woman, I had experienced a lot of problems in my life, particularly when I decided to separate my ex-husband. And these difficulties made me more aware of inequality and separation that Iranian women have to endure. This made me think about what was happening to Iranian women. Then I felt compelled to protest against such cruelties, you know. I believe that each woman in Iran has explained it and said similar problems as this is a year of separation.

My hope was to be part of the activists who cared about creating more awareness in society. And on the day I protested, no one stood by me or supported me when I was arrested, you know. And right now we have seen every man stand for women. This is the more important things. I think this learning and becoming aware process has done so that men are now standing by women, fighting for human and women rights.

ALI ROGIN: To that point—and I’m so sorry to cut you off, Azam, but I do want to get to some audience questions. And somebody asked something that I think ties into this, which is the solidarity that we’re seeing, is that translating to internationally.

Somebody asks, how do you see the influence of regional solidarity among women. Is it active in places like Afghanistan? Are they giving each other energy and support as needed? So let’s broaden it out and look at the regional solidarity that’s happening. What are you all seeing? Whoever wants to take that. And I think, unfortunately, that may be our last question of the session.

NAZANIN NOUR: I mean, there were videos of women in Afghanistan that were marching with signs in solidarity with the women of Iran as well. I mean, they’re neighbors and, you know, African women are under terrible suppression and oppression themselves.

And I feel like there has been a global outcry but there needs to be more. There’s actions that have been taken by various countries. At the U.N. there’s a fact finding mission that was created. You know, people banded together and got the Islamic Republic kicked off the Commission on the Status of Women, for example.

But I still feel like there hasn’t been the amount of solidarity that there needs to be and the amount of support for—it’s a human rights issue. It’s a human rights crisis. It’s a women’s rights crisis. So we need people from around the world in various countries that also believe in women’s rights and human rights to also stand up for the women, girls, and the people of Iran.

ALI ROGIN: Excellent. And somebody else asks a question. With all that is going on we see regional neighbors like Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Iran. What does this mean for the protest movement? Are there any implications with other countries in the region normalizing ties with Iran?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: You mean the relationship—the new relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

ALI ROGIN: Yes. Yes. Are there any implications there for the protest movement?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: … We cannot predict the future of these negotiations because a lot of, you know, challenges are between Iran and Saudi Arabia and I don’t believe that everything could be. But we know Saudi Arabia that we—everybody knows is very serious, serious with Islam and with limitations and the discriminations, gender discrimination.

But now we are—you know, we are hearing that something has changed either in Saudi Arabia and this is something that Iranian people they are watching that and they think why they are—you know, they are pushing to a very bad situation, war situation, and Saudi Arabia is going toward and this is something that Iranian women know and they think about it but they don’t compare themselves with women in Saudi Arabia because we had a very different background during shah, during Pahlavi. Pahlavi changed a lot of things in Iran, like women’s rights.

ALI ROGIN: Right.

NAZANIN NOUR: But also anything that—like, anything that legitimizes the government is not going to be a good move. Anything, you know, that emboldens them is not going to be a good move, or solidifies their status.

But it’s not deterring people in Iran from protesting in their own ways. They still do come out to the streets. It might not be to the same effect as it was a few months ago, but the fact that women are taking off their hijabs, men are supporting them—also by wearing shorts, by the way, because that’s not allowed. So, that’s one way that people are dissenting, using civil disobedience. So those types of things are continuing to happen, and they’re not going to stop. And schoolgirls, university students in general, boys and girls, have been protesting for the last few weeks, as well.

So, I don’t believe that that is going to stop what has already started in Iran. There’s no going back, is what the people of Iran say.

ALI ROGIN: In the time that we have left, I’d like to go around. And in a few sentences, can you tell me what you would like to see from the international community, to give the support that this movement needs?

Dr. Kar, would you like to begin?

MEHRANGIZ KAR: Now we can understand that it’s not enough that human rights institution, international human rights institution, work for removing gender discrimination in Iran. Now we can understand that all Western government, they should work with human rights institution because, as my friends mentioned about execution, now it’s very important if they can stop it. Because if everybody is getting crazy in Iran by this situation, and either us that are outside Iran, when we get this news we cannot—we cannot—what could we do?

ALI ROGIN: Right.

MEHRANGIZ KAR: Because six others, they do one execution in Iran now. And all of them that call it an investigation, it is not justice. They don’t have lawyer. They don’t have lawyer. And the lawyer is coming from government and it is related with government.

So we can say that international community can do a lot of work for Iran, but so far we cannot see any results of that in this movement that now it is our focus.

ALI ROGIN: Azam.

AZAM JANGRAVI: As an internet security researcher and digital security trainer, my concern is about internet, because the Islamic Republic of Iran, when it wants to suppress the people of Iran, they shut down the internet. And it would be good for Iranian people if the international community find a way to help people for internet, and—especially VPNs, especially, you know, support us for helping people, for internet shutdowns.

ALI ROGIN: Right, we’ve seen that the sanctions don’t really seem to discriminate between uses for speaking out, and for doing business with the regime.

AZAM JANGRAVI: Exactly.

ALI ROGIN: Nazanin.

NAZANIN NOUR: I just think overall, the global community needs to condemn the actions of the Islamic Republic, not legitimize them. Even the smallest action, like heads of states, when they meet with Islamic Republic officials—women not wearing the headscarf. You know, it’s not obligatory; they don’t have to do it.

I think things like, you know, the U.N. just appointed the Islamic Republic to a commission that’s overseeing human rights. And it’s an absolute slap in the face to Iranians, because they just executed two people two days ago, simply for running a social media channel that was questioning religion. So, the world needs to stop doing things like that, because all they’re doing is solidifying and emboldening the regime.

They need to pass legislation and do things that support the people of Iran, instead of emboldening the regime. They need to hold them accountable for human rights abuses. They need to, you know, list—the EU can list the IRGC as a terrorist organization. The US can pass the MAHSA Act. There’s a lot of things that can be done that haven’t been done yet. And I hope to see that.

ALI ROGIN: Nazanin Nour, Mehrangiz Kar, and Azam Jangravi, thank you so much for being here today. This has been a fascinating conversation, and congratulations tonight on the award that you are receiving from the Atlantic Council. It is so well deserved.

I think we can all join in a round of applause for this incredible panel.

MEHRANGIZ KAR: Thank you. Thank you for having us.

AZAM JANGRAVI: Thank you.

ALI ROGIN: So that concludes the program. Thank you so much for joining us.

NAZANIN NOUR: Thank you. Ali.

Watch the event

The post How the women and girls of Iran have fueled their ‘unprecedented’ protests: Bravery, solidarity, and innovation appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
As Brazil investigates Bolsonaro’s role in anti-democratic riots, should the US kick him out? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/as-brazil-investigates-bolsonaros-role-in-anti-democratic-riots-should-the-us-kick-him-out/ Wed, 18 Jan 2023 19:00:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=602377 While the Biden administration needs to demonstrate moral leadership, acting too hastily could fuel the flames of Brazil’s polarized politics and damage democracy in the long term.

The post As Brazil investigates Bolsonaro’s role in anti-democratic riots, should the US kick him out? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro was more than three thousand miles away in Florida when his supporters rioted in Brazil’s capital on January 8, a week after his rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, replaced him as president. But Bolsonaro clearly stoked the thousand-plus rioters with his false, denialist rhetoric, and Brazilian prosecutors are investigating whether his role rises to the level of criminal conduct. If it does, it will be important that he be held legally accountable.

The Biden administration is under increasing pressure from progressive leaders in Latin America and the US Congress to compel Bolsonaro to leave the United States. While the Biden administration needs to demonstrate moral leadership in upholding democracy and the rule of law, acting too hastily could fuel the flames of Brazil’s increasingly polarized politics and do more damage to democracy in the long term. In order to navigate this politically sensitive situation, the US government must follow established legal processes and ensure Bolsonaro does not undermine Brazilian democracy from US soil.

Ideally, Bolsonaro—who may have entered the United States on a diplomatic visa, which would have expired when his successor was sworn in on January 1—would simply return to Brazil voluntarily. He has said he plans to accelerate his planned departure at the end of January, which would resolve the problem.

Should Bolsonaro not leave voluntarily, it may take years to compel his departure, as the history of high-profile extradition requests to the US government shows. However, today there is hope that Bolsonaro will be persuaded to leave the United States of his own accord because of the possibility that he could face years of shameful publicity trying to stave off the extradition the Brazilian government, when it decides the time is right, is almost sure to seek.

While Bolsonaro would have ample opportunity to challenge the evidence against him in US courts before any action is taken to extradite or remove him, the Brazilian government would have an equal opportunity to make the case for Bolsonaro’s responsibility for the riots before the world’s media. The US government also would have the opportunity under US law to provisionally arrest Bolsonaro for at least several months, an indignity he may prefer to avoid.

Since 1964, the United States and Brazil have agreed by extradition treaty that each country must “deliver up” those charged with or convicted of certain enumerated crimes—which include destroying government property, as happened in Brasília—when committed within the territorial jurisdiction of the requesting country and when criminalized in both countries.

While there are some exceptions for when the offense is of a “political character,” the treaty notes that “[c]riminal acts which constitute clear manifestations of anarchism or envisage the overthrow of the bases of all political organizations will not be classed as political crimes or offenses.” It is unlikely that a court would rule that the exception for acts of a “political character” would apply in Bolsonaro’s case, if he is found culpable, because the incitement resulted in violence.

To avoid getting mired in political sensitivities, the Biden administration would be wise to pursue three immediate priorities.

1. Follow the law—even if it moves slowly

First, the White House should demonstrate what the rule of law looks like. If Bolsonaro chooses to stay in the United States, the Biden administration should urge the Brazilian government to initiate a formal extradition request. While it could be appealing to swiftly end Bolsonaro’s presence in the United States by exercising the authority that the president and the secretary of state have to declare him persona non grata (if he actually entered on a diplomatic visa) or to revoke his visa and have the Department of Homeland Security remove him, Bolsonaro would still have the right to contest that in court. In the end, little time would be saved if Bolsonaro wants to delay his return.

The question over Bolsonaro brings to mind one faced by the Obama administration in 2016, when Turkey’s government requested the extradition of Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish religious leader living in Pennsylvania, following a failed coup against Turkey’s government by some of Gülen’s supporters. However, despite repeated urging (including from then-Vice President Joe Biden) and expert-level consultations in which the Department of Justice explained US extradition requirements to Turkish counterparts, the Turkish government never presented evidence sufficient to convince a US magistrate to turn Gülen over to Turkey for trial.

Insistence on following established legal processes in the Gülen matter allowed the US government to navigate a politically sensitive situation without eroding the rule of law, even under serious pressure from the Turkish government.

While a formal extradition process for Bolsonaro would take several years to unfold, starting with the issuing of a warrant and a hearing to establish whether sufficient evidence exists to sustain the charge, this would keep Bolsonaro out of Brazil and, perhaps, allow for restrictions on his access to media and electronics that could be used to incite supporters to further violence.

From there, the process involves several layers of preliminary review by the US Department of State and a probable cause determination by the US Department of Justice before the case is forwarded to the US attorney for the district where the individual is located. An extradition order is not appealable, but Bolsonaro could petition for a writ of habeas corpus to ensure that he gets a hearing. The US secretary of state then makes the final decision whether to extradite.

The Biden administration should be clear that the length of the process is not any indication of US government reluctance to turn Bolsonaro over or interest in delaying the process. Bolsonaro’s status as a former head of state does not privilege or penalize.

2. Provide US law enforcement and intelligence support to Brazil

Second, the Biden administration should also support efforts to hold those responsible for the January 8 attack accountable for their assault on democracy by promising total cooperation from US law enforcement and intelligence agencies to share what they know, including any information regarding Bolsonaro’s role in instigating, directing, or supporting it.

A public announcement of US law enforcement’s full cooperation would have a chilling effect on Bolsonaro’s capacity to machinate disruptions to Brazil’s democracy from his current location in Orlando, Florida, given the ability, and obligation, of US law enforcement and intelligence agencies to prevent acts of violence or crime emanating from a foreign national on US soil.

3. Allow civil cases to run their course

Third, Bolsonaro no longer holds any official position, so in the United States, he is subject to US laws for civil damages—and the Biden administration should not shield him from culpability. His assets can be tied down or even frozen while US courts decide whether he is liable for the January 8 riots and subsequent events. He could also be required to give depositions and provide evidence about his own actions even outside of any criminal or extradition proceedings.

Life in the United States could quickly look less and less attractive for Bolsonaro. The threat of being cut off from his supporters while under the watchful eye of US law enforcement agencies may be the deciding factor in whether Bolsonaro decides to stay in the United States or go home. Either way, he will face justice.


Gissou Nia is a human rights lawyer and director of the Strategic Litigation Project at the Atlantic Council. Follow her on Twitter: @GissouNia.

Tom Warrick is a senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Forward Defense practice at the Atlantic Council. He served in the Department of State from 1997 to 2007 and as a deputy assistant secretary in the Department of Homeland Security from 2008 to 2019. Follow him on Twitter: @TomWarrickAC.

The post As Brazil investigates Bolsonaro’s role in anti-democratic riots, should the US kick him out? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Which Giorgia Meloni will Washington get? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/which-giorgia-meloni-will-washington-get/ Mon, 26 Sep 2022 15:04:10 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=570189 The Biden administration should adopt a more cautious approach toward the next Italian prime minister than it has so far. 

The post Which Giorgia Meloni will Washington get? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Long a controversial figure both at home and abroad over her party’s direct lineage from Italy’s neo-fascist movement, Giorgia Meloni is now expected to become the country’s newest prime minister after her party secured the most votes in Sunday’s election. Her controversial views on migration, erstwhile fascination with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, anti-LGBTQ stance, and open criticism toward the European Union (EU) have all contributed to her image as an unsavory right-wing politician.

Yet Meloni has come a long way since when she defined the EU as “rotten to its core” in 2016 and opposed sanctions against Russia following its 2014 annexation of Crimea. She defines herself and her Brothers of Italy party as conservative—supporting lower taxes and a more business-centric approach—has built strong connections in Washington, and has become a staunch supporter of sending military support to Ukraine. 

Today, Meloni’s position on the United States is clear and well-defined. She has recently struck an agreement with the US International Republican Institute to organize a major conference on Afghanistan in Rome. She is also a member of the Aspen Institute and participated in this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference. She has said that Italy and the United States have “shared roots” and goes on the record with leading American newspapers to defend her positions.

She also seems to have reversed her once Kremlin-friendly positions, recently criticizing Russia on multiple occasions for its “unacceptable” invasion of Ukraine. She was one of the biggest supporters of current Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s stance on sending weapons to Kyiv, pitting herself against populist politician Matteo Salvini from the right-wing League party (who once entered the European Parliament wearing a Putin T-shirt). 

Yet still, Meloni’s rhetoric at home offers a more complicated picture and begs the question: Can the United States really trust her?

Although she portrayed herself and her party to Washington’s ruling elites as a conservative, they have time and again refused to renounce the party’s ties to Italian fascism. When Italy’s parliament voted to dismantle the neo-fascist party Forza Nuova in October 2021—after it orchestrated a violent attack against one of Italy’s leading unions—the Brothers of Italy abstained from voting. More recently, a video of a young Meloni resurfaced in which she claimed that dictator Benito Mussolini was a “good politician” and that “there have not been other politicians like him.” The Brothers of Italy’s logo even strongly resembles that of Italy’s neo-fascist, post-World War II party, the Italian Social Movement.

But most importantly to American interests abroad, Meloni has long been a Euroskeptic; her seemingly pro-European stance, demonstrating unwavering support for Ukraine and hosting pro-EU conferences in Rome, is a recent phenomenon. Up until 2019, Brothers of Italy was a major proponent of dissolving the Eurozone and a strong supporter of Brexit. Party leaders also criticized the European Central Bank, often referring to the institution as a place of “usurers and lobbyists.” But during the 2019 European elections, Meloni ran with the European Conservatives and Reformists Group, becoming its president in 2020, and has since then made an effort to forge strong ties with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.

The Warsaw-Budapest model 

If there’s one thing the United States has learned in recent years, it’s that far-right parties often go rogue—and do so very quickly. Consider the cases of Poland and Hungary. 

Following a long run of centrist governments, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party rose to power in 2015 and began opposing the EU, migration, and LGBTQ rights. However, much like Meloni’s party, PiS is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group and was founded largely on conservative principles inspired by the Ronald Reagan-era US Republican Party. Today, Poland under PiS is seeing an erosion of the freedom of expression, judicial independence, and women’s rights. 

In Hungary, meanwhile, Prime Minister Victor Orbán has corroded the country’s democratic stability since coming to power in 2010 by allowing himself more powers through constitutional reforms. He has also attacked the media and instituted anti-immigration policies. Similar to PiS, Orbán’s Fidesz party ran with the conservatives through the European People’s Party, the European Parliament’s center-right group—using it as something of a Trojan horse to break into European establishment politics.

Together, Poland and Hungary have taken steps in recent years to prevent the EU from implementing a post-pandemic recovery plan and the resettlement of migrants, thereby undoing the bloc’s cohesion. Budapest also sets itself apart from Brussels given its largely pro-Russian stance, refusing to send military aid to Ukraine and formalizing gas deals with the Kremlin. Moreover, its democratic backsliding has serious implications on the United States and the transatlantic partnership because it weakens their ability to strengthen economic ties, tackle common security threats such as Russia, and fight climate change.

Searching for Meloni’s true colors 

The deep cultural, trade, and security ties between Washington and Rome mean the White House will need to watch its Italian partner’s positioning closely. 

Strategically, Italy is a vital partner in securing NATO’s southern flank around the Mediterranean Sea, where the spillover effects of North Africa’s conflicts seriously risk destabilizing the Alliance. Italy also plays a crucial role in Libya by supporting peace negotiations in the country, where Russia has deployed mercenaries from the the Wagner Group to exert greater power over the region. Italy is also home to the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet in Naples, where more than 33,000 US service members are stationed.

Italy alone can do little to fend off American enemies abroad, secure US interests, and strengthen the transatlantic alliance. But it can have a great impact as a pillar of multilateral cooperation within the EU and NATO by creating a stronger bloc against Russia, securing a peaceful and prosperous Mediterranean, and find durable solutions to issues such as migration and climate change.  

But Meloni has given plenty of indications that she may not be that reliable partner. She showed her true colors after a European Parliament resolution called Hungary “a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.” She criticized the vote, saying that “Orbán has won the elections” and therefore Hungary is a “democratic system.”

Meloni’s EU stance, though it has moderated a bit in recent years, also reflects an Orbán-style view. For instance, she opposes the primacy of EU over national laws, and during this year’s campaign, she stated that the defense of national interests over European ones remains paramount. She also vehemently opposes a new majority voting system in which individual EU members states would no longer have veto power. She recently declared that if Brothers of Italy were to win, “the joke will be over” and that Italy will start “defending its interests” just like “other countries.” 

Meloni’s open support for Orbán also begs the question of whether she will drift back toward Hungary’s position of opposing further sanctions on Russia. Just recently, she was photographed with a pro-Putin regional minister who in 2016 established a fake consulate for the Ukrainian breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic in Turin. Her likely coalition partners, Salvini’s League and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, have a history of fondness for Putin.

The Brothers of Italy’s track record is a giant warning sign that the party is likely to disrupt European unity—much to the detriment to the common fight against Russia and to Washington’s interests. This is why the Biden administration should adopt a more cautious approach toward Meloni than it has so far. 

For one, it should make clear to Meloni that democratic backsliding in Italy will not bode well for the transatlantic partnership. If Italy pursues anti-democratic policies at home and supports semi-autocratic leaders abroad, joining forces with the United States against Russia—as helpful as it may be—will do little in achieving an overall freer and more prosperous world. Washington should also firmly condemn all and any links between Brothers of Italy, neo-fascism, and pro-Putin ideologies and refuse to meet with members of her party who have a demonstrated history of supporting any such principles. 

Maintaining such a firm stance would send a clear message: The United States won’t tolerate another rogue European actor.


Alissa Pavia is the associate director for the North Africa Program within the Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council and a native of Italy.

The post Which Giorgia Meloni will Washington get? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#AtlanticDebrief – Will Jean Monnet’s vision for Europe win out? | A Debrief from Nathalie Tocci https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-debrief/atlanticdebrief-will-jean-monnets-vision-for-europe-win-out-a-debrief-from-nathalie-tocci/ Fri, 23 Sep 2022 16:09:15 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=569463 Europe Center Senior Fellow Damir Marusic sits down with Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, to discuss the current scene in Europe on the struggle between European integration and Euroscepticism.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – Will Jean Monnet’s vision for Europe win out? | A Debrief from Nathalie Tocci appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

IN THIS EPISODE

What is the current scene in Europe on the struggle between European integration and Euroscepticism? What do Italy and Sweden’s elections mean for European unity and cooperation, particularly in the face of Russian aggression? Should Europe be expecting a resurgence of populism or the far-right in Europe?

For this episode of #AtlanticDebrief, Europe Center Senior Fellow Damir Marusic sits down with Dr. Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, to discuss these issues and answer the “Jean Monnet” question: if Europe can be adaptable and resilient in the face of crisis.

You can watch #AtlanticDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #AtlanticDebrief – Will Jean Monnet’s vision for Europe win out? | A Debrief from Nathalie Tocci appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Could Italy become Europe’s newest problem child? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/could-italy-become-europes-newest-problem-child/ Thu, 22 Sep 2022 16:05:31 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=569032 How a new right-wing coalition could shake up Europe's third-largest economy.

The post Could Italy become Europe’s newest problem child? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
On September 25, Italian voters will elect a slimmed-down parliament in what polls predict will be a triumph for the conservative coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party, which could win 45 percent of the vote. If the polls prove right, Meloni would become Italy’s first female prime minister and the first far-right Italian premier since World War II

Meloni’s main challenger is former Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party (PD), which is currently polling at around 22 percent. Letta, who some see as a continuation of Italy’s old politics, has stated that this election will decide whether Italy will stick with the likes of France, Germany, Spain, and the European Union (EU) in general, or side with right-leaning European partners like Poland and Hungary as primary partners. With the strength of the conservative coalition, which also includes the populist League and center-right Forza Italia parties, the latter may become reality. 

Either way, much is at stake for Italy, which faces a snap election at a time when the country is reeling from converging crises of inflation, surging cost of living, uncertain energy security, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

One of the first—and most challenging—responsibilities of the incoming government will be to draft its budget law for 2023, which must be submitted to the European Commission by mid-October and approved by the end of the year. This and debt sustainability are the issues that both Brussels and financial markets are anxiously monitoring.  

The current government will also leave a lot on the agenda. The next government will have its docket full with issues like tax reform, competition regulation, judicial reform, and even enacting a minimum wage—Italy is one of six EU countries without a federally regulated minimum wage, and will have to introduce one to comply with new EU law

Meanwhile, climate change and energy solutions have surfaced as important campaign battlegrounds for the first time, especially since the new government will face a potentially volatile winter marked by Russian gas cut-offs. Candidates have prioritized discussion of economic and energy challenges, including the effects of the war in Ukraine, with both Meloni and Letta proposing measures to limit spiraling energy prices. 

Anti-immigrant sentiments have also been a campaign feature, particularly after Meloni shared a video on social media of an undocumented immigrant raping a woman, for which she was heavily rebuked by her rival Letta. LGBTQ+ and abortion rights, which could face restrictions under a Meloni-led government, are also the subject of debate. 

How did Italy go from technocrats to far-right populists?  

Prime Minister Mario Draghi—who is credited with leading Italy out of the COVID-19 economic downturn—has largely been viewed as a figure of economic stability in Europe, thanks to his tenure as former president of the European Central Bank and his role as a vocal advocate of EU responses to the economic and energy crises stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Taking over as a technocrat only eighteen months ago, he resigned in July when the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) withdrew its support from the governing coalition—accusing Draghi of failing to do enough to address Italy’s worsening economic conditions—and the League and Forza Italia followed suit. 

President Sergio Mattarella had turned to Draghi early in 2021 as a steady hand outside of party politics who could lead the country out of the darker days of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite opposition from M5S, which preferred a political government. However, the collapse in July of Draghi’s technocratic government perhaps showed that  leaders cannot prevail outside of party politics. 

Italy is no stranger to technocratic governments, as Draghi’s is the fourth in the past two decades. But dissatisfaction with unelected leadership has already paved the way for populists in the past: Mario Monti was similarly installed as prime minister in 2011 in the wake of the global financial crisis, but two years of public dissatisfaction gave way to a populist surge headed by M5S, which earned the highest share of votes in its first-ever national election after Monti’s government fell apart in 2013. 

History now seems to be repeating itself, with the parties withdrawing support from Draghi in favor of an electoral approach to resolving the country’s challenges (Meloni and other right-wing leaders were already calling for early elections by the time Draghi resigned).

The rise of Meloni’s far-right brand 

Entering conservative politics in her teens, Meloni’s popularity has skyrocketed in recent years. Her controversial views on the EU and anti-immigration positions resonated with an increasingly disaffected public, propelling her party from 4 percent in 2018 to more than 25 percent in 2022.  

Meloni, 45, describes herself and the Brothers of Italy as conservatives. Individual freedom, private enterprise, educational freedom, the centrality of the family and its role in society, border protection from unchecked immigration, and the defense of Italian national identity are among the issues she campaigns on the most. 

Concerns in the West about the Brothers of Italy’s roots as a neofascist party have been met with claims that fascism has been handed over to history. But Meloni doesn’t hide her admiration for autocratic Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán, for instance, and also opposes gay rights, claiming that children should be raised by a mother and a father. As prime minister, Meloni says she would put up naval blockades in the Mediterranean to deter migrants, while her slogans “God, family, fatherland” and “Less Europe, but a better Europe” worry Europeans. While she appears to have embraced Atlanticism in the final days of the campaign, it’s unclear how serious she is about that stance. 

While she has stated that Italy will continue to support Ukraine, her coalition would undoubtedly raise questions about the country’s policy, given the ties of League leader Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister who now heads Forza Italia, to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

A new headache for the EU? 

With the Ukraine war and growing energy crisis absorbing the focus in Brussels, the EU may not be enthusiastic to work with the likes of Meloni, who could lead Italy down the path already traveled by Hungary or Poland, as Letta warns. 

Meloni sees Italian individualism as the solution to becoming a more influential European actor. “We want a different Italian attitude on the international stage, for example in dealing with the European Commission, [but] this does not mean that we want to destroy Europe, that we want to leave Europe, that we want to do crazy things,” she said last month. “It simply means explaining that the defense of the national interest is important to us as it is for the French and for the Germans.” 

A Meloni-led government could well be at odds with the Commission from an early stage. The leader of the Brothers of Italy has questioned EU fiscal requirements, claiming that the EU Stability and Growth Pact—which aims to keep national budget deficits below 3 percent of gross domestic product—should not apply in the current economic climate, and that Italy should not be subject to those conditions to receive pandemic recovery funding. She has also decried the EU’s response to the energy crisis, citing the impact of continued rising prices on firms and households.  

Meloni’s premiership could also see Italy tilt toward protectionism. For example, her party wants the state to purchase a controlling share in Telecom Italia, which Meloni says would result in a “state owned, non-vertically integrated network and private operators operating under free competition,” effectively cutting out other European investors. 

Will Meloni tone down her calls for Italy’s sovereignty once she enters Palazzo Chigi?  Many populist leaders have done just that in recent years after winning elections. Chances are that a more conventional political line toward Europe will be embraced once in power—but that remains to be seen. 

The lay of the land 

For the first time, Italians are voting to fill a shrunken Parliament. A 2020 constitutional referendum reduced the number of seats in the lower house from 630 to 400, and shrank the senate from 315 members to 200. A smaller legislature will reduce the size of future majorities, which means more emphasis on party loyalty and potentially more stability to implement legislative agendas. 

Here’s a look at the main contenders and what they promise: 

  • The centrodestra (center-right) coalition is led by the Brothers of Italy, joined by Salvini’s League and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. The Brothers, who are marked by a post-fascist history, focus on promoting the traditional Italian family, while the populist League has called for curbing immigration and rolling back EU authority. Italy’s mixed electoral law favors broad coalitions of this nature, making a center-right government all the more likely. 
  • Letta’s PD, which polls show as neck and neck with Meloni’s party, heads the center-left coalition. According to polls, the three right-wing parties have a total of 46.5 percent of the vote, compared to the center-left alliance’s 29 percent. Letta has ruled out an alliance with the populist M5S, claiming that the government crisis has resulted in an “irreversible” break between the two parties. Letta’s party has positioned itself as the pro-European alternative to the right’s brand of nationalism and maintains an anti-Putin stance and support for LGBTQ+ rights. 
  • The Five Star Movement (M5S), led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, has decided to run alone. The party divided when former leader Luigi Di Maio left to form the Civic Commitment (Impegno Civico) party; support for M5S has since plummeted from 32 percent in the 2018 to roughly 12 percent now. It proposes to issue common EU debt in order to establish an energy-recovery fund, to review the EU Stability and Growth Pact, and to allow workers to keep more of their gross wages. On social policy, M5S overlaps with the PD. 
  • Action (Azione) is a liberal party led by Carlo Calenda, a member of the European Parliament. It has joined with the former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva in what the two parties call a “third pole” alliance. While the partnership is currently polling at about 7 percent, it’s possible the third pole’s appeal to centrist and moderate voters could lead to a new political geography in Italy in the long term. 

What’s next for Italy? 

The conditions for this election show that Italy cannot continue to be governed by technocrats. But will Italians be better off under the leadership of a so-called sovereign coalition—or is this the final episode of populist politicians exploiting the hearts of disappointed citizens? There seems to be little concern about whether Italy will remain a solid transatlantic partner, but the big question mark looms over relations with Europe. Will Italy fight at any cost for a Europe whole and free, or will it simply squabble with other European countries?

As the Italians say, non si sa—no one knows. 


Ilva Tare is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Councils Europe Center and host of the Europe Center’s #BalkanDebrief series. 

Akshat Dhankher is a program assistant at the Europe Center. 

The post Could Italy become Europe’s newest problem child? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – What are the origins of Europe’s energy crisis? | A Debrief from Dr. Helen Thompson https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-what-are-the-origins-of-europes-energy-crisis-a-debrief-from-dr-helen-thompson/ Fri, 09 Sep 2022 22:22:57 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=565197 Senior Fellow Ben Judah spoke with Dr. Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, on Europe’s energy, climate and geopolitical reckoning.

The post #BritainDebrief – What are the origins of Europe’s energy crisis? | A Debrief from Dr. Helen Thompson appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

What are the origins of Europe’s energy crisis?

As concerns continue to grow over Europe’s capacity to endure a winter with less Russian natural gas, Senior Fellow Ben Judah spoke with Dr. Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University, on Europe’s energy, climate and geopolitical reckoning. What are the historical origins of Europe’s predicament? Is the current crisis only caused by war in Ukraine? Why have Western Europe politicians become more “energy illiterate” when describing policy objectives? Is this a geopolitical and climate-related reckoning for Europe, in addition to it being an energy security-related reckoning?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – What are the origins of Europe’s energy crisis? | A Debrief from Dr. Helen Thompson appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – What future for the Scottish Lib Dems? | A Debrief with Alex Cole-Hamilton https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-what-future-for-the-scottish-lib-dems-a-debrief-with-alex-cole-hamilton/ Fri, 09 Sep 2022 22:15:30 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=565193 Senior Fellow Ben Judah spoke with Alex Cole-Hamilton, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, to discuss the future of the union.

The post #BritainDebrief – What future for the Scottish Lib Dems? | A Debrief with Alex Cole-Hamilton appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

What future for the Scottish Lib Dems?

As Nicola Sturgeon recently declared her intention to hold a second independence referendum without Westminster’s consent, Senior Fellow Ben Judah spoke with Alex Cole-Hamilton, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, to discuss the future of the union. Can the Scottish Lib Dems benefit from the recent wins that their English counterparts have had lately? How will the Scottish Lib Dems tailor their electoral strategy under a Truss premiership?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – What future for the Scottish Lib Dems? | A Debrief with Alex Cole-Hamilton appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – What does the Tory leadership contest say about race in Britain? | A Debrief from Tomiwa Owolade https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-what-does-the-tory-leadership-contest-say-about-race-in-britain-a-debrief-from-tomiwa-owolade/ Wed, 27 Jul 2022 20:28:36 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=551137 Senior Fellow Ben Judah spoke with Tomiwa Owolade, contributing writer to the New Statesman magazine, on how the political advancement of ethnic minority politicians reflects on British society at large.

The post #BritainDebrief – What does the Tory leadership contest say about race in Britain? | A Debrief from Tomiwa Owolade appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

What does the Tory leadership contest say about race in Britain?

The candidacies of Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Suella Braverman, and Kemi Badenoch for the leadership of the UK Conservative Party (and the UK premiership by extension) have demonstrated the potential for ethnic minority politicians to break “the glass ceiling” of political leadership. To understand these dynamics further, Senior Fellow Ben Judah spoke with Tomiwa Owolade, contributing writer to the New Statesman magazine, on how the political advancement of ethnic minority politicians reflects on British society at large. Are American ideological frames on race misapplied to British realities? Why is a party of social conservatism open to the possibility of an ethnic minority leader? Will there be an ethnic minority prime minister in the near future?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – What does the Tory leadership contest say about race in Britain? | A Debrief from Tomiwa Owolade appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – Bye Boris Special: Now what? | A Debrief from Tom McTague https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-bye-boris-special-now-what-a-debrief-from-tom-mctague/ Wed, 27 Jul 2022 20:10:09 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=551127 Senior Fellow Ben Judah interviewed Tom McTague, Staff Writer at The Atlantic, to discuss what to watch out for in both the Conservative Party and British politics in the near future.

The post #BritainDebrief – Bye Boris Special: Now what? | A Debrief from Tom McTague appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

As Boris Johnson announces his resignation from the premiership, the question on everyone’s mind is: now what?

To get to the potential outcomes of Johnson’s departure from No 10, Senior Fellow Ben Judah interviewed Tom McTague, Staff Writer at The Atlantic, to discuss what to watch out for in both the Conservative Party and British politics in the near future. Who are the frontrunners to replace Johnson? Will the Conservative party retain its Johnsonian inertia? Will Labour benefit from dysfunction in the Conservative party? What does it say about Britain and its post-Brexit trajectory?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – Bye Boris Special: Now what? | A Debrief from Tom McTague appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Kazakhstan cancels Victory Day in protest over Putin’s Ukraine War https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/kazakhstan-cancels-victory-day-in-protest-over-putins-ukraine-war/ Wed, 11 May 2022 14:38:42 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=522345 Kazakhstan's recent decision to cancel the country's annual WWII Victory Day parade was a small but significant indication of Nur-Sultan's opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The post Kazakhstan cancels Victory Day in protest over Putin’s Ukraine War appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
With Russia currently waging war in Ukraine, traditional Victory Day events on May 9 took on added symbolic significance. This holiday marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany has become central to modern Russia’s national identity, but attitudes elsewhere in the former USSR are often more nuanced and reflect the complex dynamics of post-imperial relations with Moscow. For Kazakhstan, refusal to join this year’s Victory Day celebrations was a subtle way of distancing the country from Russia’s aggressive actions.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Kazakhstani authorities have made it clear that they do not condone Moscow’s military campaign. At the same time, Nur-Sultan has been cautious about expressing outright condemnation. In early March, a number of Central Asian nations including Kazakhstan abstained in a UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion. Similarly, Kazakhstan did not vote for a US-sponsored resolution to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.

On the other hand, the first deputy chief of staff of the Kazakhstani presidency Timur Suleimenov stated during a recent event in Washington DC that the situation in Ukraine is a “war” and not a “special military operation” as the Kremlin insists. While this choice of words may not seem like a major development, it is quite meaningful that a senior Kazakhstani official used this particular term while in the US capital.

Kazakhstan has also sent humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Aircraft with medical supplies were dispatched to Ukraine on at least three occasions throughout March. For example, one March 28 flight from Almaty to Katowice in Poland carried a total of 17.5 tons in aid for Ukraine including bedding and food products.

Crucially, Central Asia’s largest nation has not recognized the independence of the so-called separatist republics created by the Kremlin in eastern Ukraine. Kazakhstani citizens have also publicly voiced their displeasure over the invasion. The biggest anti-war protest to date among member nations of the Commonwealth of Independent States took place in Almaty on 6 March. Some five thousand individuals reportedly participated.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

The most prominent single indication of Kazakhstan’s unease over the war in Ukraine was the recent decision to cancel the country’s annual Victory Day parade on May 9. The move to scrap this year’s parade was accompanied by bans on the display of military symbols and restrictions on the staging of WWII commemorations at schools.

The Kazakhstani Ministry of Defense officially stated that this was down to budgetary savings as well as “other issues.” However, given the enormous importance of the holiday to Russia and its status as a symbol of post-Soviet unity, this step was clearly meant as a message to Moscow.

It is important to note that Victory Day celebrations are not solely a legacy of the Soviet Union or a reflection of ongoing ties to contemporary Russia. The holiday is also a nationally important memorial day in its own right for Kazakhstan. It is estimated that over 600,000 Kazakhstani soldiers died during WWII while fighting for the Red Army. Some segments of Kazakhstani society were unhappy to see this year’s celebrations silenced, but it seems that geopolitical considerations were given priority. 

Unsurprisingly, a number of prominent Russians voiced their displeasure at Kazakhstan’s decision and made some fairly aggressive statements in response to news of the cancelled Victory Day parade. For example, prominent Russian TV presenter Tigran Keosayan threatened the country with a “Ukrainian scenario.”

It would be easy to cherry-pick contradictory examples of how Nur-Sultan has behaved regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Certain decisions suggest that the Kazakhstani leadership supports Russia, while other statements and developments provide a different picture.

Rather than portraying inconsistency, recent developments demonstrate how Kazakhstan and other countries across the Caucasus and Central Asia must walk a fine line to avoid angering Moscow and prevent potential negative repercussions. After all, the threat of Russian military intervention has never been more apparent or immediate. Keosayan’s aforementioned diatribe demonstrates how high-profile Russians have no reservations when it comes to menacing neighboring countries including official allies of Russia such as Kazakhstan.

In light of the cautious path that Nur-Sultan must walk to avoid Moscow’s wrath, the recent cancellation of the Victory Day parade should be understood as a significant development. It was a modest but nonetheless meaningful protest against Russia’s use of military aggression within the former Soviet space.

Kazakhstan has plenty to be proud of regarding the role of its soldiers in WWII. However, Victory Day celebrations have become inextricably linked to modern Russian nationalism and the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. This makes Victory Day a problematic and controversial holiday for non-Russian former Soviet republics. Given the recent anti-war protests in Almaty and concerns for the security of their own country, many Kazakhstanis would likely have objected to a public holiday so closely tied to Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions.

While Washington and other Western capitals would welcome an increase in pro-Kyiv statements from Nur-Sultan, the importance of canceling this year’s annual Victory Day parade should not be underestimated. It was a geopolitically bold decision that reflects Kazakhstan’s refusal to blindly align itself with the Kremlin.

Wilder Alejandro Sánchez is president of Second Floor Strategies consulting firm. Kamila Auyezova is a research analyst who focuses on geopolitical and climate issues in Central Asia.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Kazakhstan cancels Victory Day in protest over Putin’s Ukraine War appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Vladimir Putin’s WWII victory cult is a recipe for international aggression https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/vladimir-putins-wwii-victory-cult-is-a-recipe-for-international-aggression/ Sun, 08 May 2022 12:38:35 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=521274 Vladimir Putin has transformed Russia's traditional Victory Day commemorations marking the defeat of Nazi Germany into a nationalistic celebration of militarism that helps justify Moscow's war of aggression in Ukraine.

The post Vladimir Putin’s WWII victory cult is a recipe for international aggression appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Military parades will take place across Russia on May 9 as the country honors the defeat of Nazi Germany with traditional Victory Day celebrations.

This holiday dates back to the end of WWII but it has undergone a dramatic upgrade during the reign of Vladimir Putin. Since coming to power at the turn of the millennium, Putin has transformed veneration of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany into something approaching a religious cult and has placed it at the heart of modern Russian national identity.

Under Putin, Victory Day has become the holiest day on the Russian calendar and a ubiquitous feature of patriotic propaganda. Meanwhile, anyone who dares question the Kremlin’s highly sanitized version of the “Great Patriotic War,” as WWII is still known in Russia, is treated with a severity once reserved for medieval heretics.

Putin’s victory cult serves a number of useful functions for the Kremlin. It has proved remarkably effective in reviving Russian patriotism following the humiliation of the Soviet collapse and the missed opportunities of the 1990s. It has also provided the perfect antidote to grim revelations of Stalinist terror while helping to whitewash the extensive crimes against humanity committed by the USSR during and after WWII.

The contemporary political implications of this victory cult go far beyond the need to reconcile modern Russians with their country’s troubling twentieth century history. By rehabilitating the Soviet past, Putin has succeeded in legitimizing the authoritarian present.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Throughout Putin’s reign, Russia has enthusiastically deployed the language and symbolism of WWII as rhetorical weapons against the country’s perceived enemies, who are routinely denounced as “fascists” and “Nazis.” The list of domestic and international targets is necessarily long and includes more or less anyone who disagrees with the Kremlin. However, pride of place is reserved for Ukraine, which has long been portrayed by Russian officials and propagandists as the heir to Nazi Germany.

In recent years, this mythmaking has become a matter of life and death for millions of Ukrainians. Ever since the 2014 seizure of Crimea, the propaganda narrative of “Nazi Ukraine” has been used extensively to justify further Russian aggression against the country. Unsurprisingly, Putin claimed in his February 24 declaration of war that the primary goal of the current invasion was the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine.

For adherents of Putin’s victory cult, Ukraine’s Nazi status has become an article of faith that requires no evidence or further explanation. This belief in the “Nazi Ukraine” narrative has remained unchanged despite inconvenient facts such as the complete absence of far-right parties in the Ukrainian government or the 2019 election of Jewish Russian-speaker Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Ukrainian president.

Over the past ten weeks of full-scale warfare, the terms “Ukraine” and “Nazi” have become virtual synonyms within the Kremlin media bubble. Indeed, a high-profile article published by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti in April stated explicitly that “de-Nazification” actually meant “de-Ukrainization” and anticipated the destruction of the Ukrainian nation.

Russsia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine is so inundated with false historical narratives rooted in Putin’s victory cult that much of the war-related commentary now coming out of the Kremlin is completely detached from reality and impossible to decipher without reference to the Kremlin’s twisted WWII mythology. This was most recently demonstrated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s anti-Semitic outburst on Italian TV, which saw him claim that Zelenskyy’s Jewish identity meant nothing as “Hitler also had Jewish blood.”

Putin and his colleagues desperately need a history lesson in the realities of WWII and the Soviet role in the conflict. While the Western allies were armies of liberation during WWII who brought democracy and long-term stability to much of Europe, the Red Army led an occupation that left tens of millions trapped behind the Iron Curtain. Modern Russia still refuses to recognize this uncomfortable truth, preferring instead to accuse the nations of Central Europe of ingratitude.

Every nation needs to question its past. Unfortunately, the Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin is actively engaged in denial. This includes attempts to justify many of the most shameful episodes of the Soviet era. The Kremlin is particularly sensitive to discussion of the August 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact which divided Eastern Europe and directly sparked WWII. Putin has gone to remarkable lengths to defend the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and has criminalized any attempts to suggest Soviet responsibility for the outbreak of war.  

Modern Russia’s victory cult also seeks to nationalize the allied defeat of Hitler. It makes almost no mention of the US Lend-Lease Act that provided the USSR with close to USD 160 billion (in current dollar terms) in weapons and other vital supplies. Likewise, Putin’s transformation of Victory Day into a celebration of Russian nationalism means that the countless soldiers from other Soviet republics are largely airbrushed out of the Kremlin’s WWII narrative. Needless to say, rose-tinted Russian coverage of the war largely ignores the staggeringly callous use of Soviet troops as cannon fodder or the hundreds of thousands of Red Army soldiers executed by their own comrades.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin reacts with fury and indignation whenever attention is drawn to the widespread accounts of mass rape and other atrocities as the Red Army advanced into Central Europe. Russia’s failure to officially acknowledge these crimes is not merely an historical injustice. On the contrary, Moscow’s glorification of the perpetrators has helped create a sense of impunity that paved the way for the strikingly similar atrocities witnessed in recent months throughout the occupied regions of Ukraine.

Stalin’s vindication after WWII is one of the factors that makes Putin so reckless now. If Stalin could stand tall among the winners despite his heinous crimes and complete disregard for human life, why shouldn’t Putin accomplish something similar? The West’s readiness in 1945 to allow the partition of post-war Europe was a betrayal of Western values that sanctioned the triumph of one authoritarian system over another. Putin expects today’s Western leaders to display similar moral flexibility on the subject of Ukraine.

For the past two decades, Putin has distorted and weaponized the Soviet WWII experience in order to revitalize Russian nationalism and justify an expansionist foreign policy. The sheer scale of Soviet losses in the fight against Hitler has made many outside observers reluctant to criticize this trend, but it is now clear that Putin’s victory cult is a recipe for international aggression. It has created a menacing climate of militarism within Russia that has already spilled over into Ukraine with catastrophic consequences. Unless this cult is confronted and condemned, other countries will suffer a similar fate.

Andrej Lushnycky is president of the Ukrainian Society of Switzerland.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Vladimir Putin’s WWII victory cult is a recipe for international aggression appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – What’s at stake in France’s Presidential Election? | A Debrief from Ambassador Gérard Araud https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-whats-at-stake-in-frances-presidential-election-a-debrief-from-ambassador-gerard-araud/ Mon, 25 Apr 2022 15:38:25 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=516444 Senior Fellow Ben Judah interviews Ambassador Gérard Araud, former French Ambassador to the US and Senior Fellow, for #BritainDebrief to discuss how this election will impact France. What is France's role in NATO? What will happen to the European Union and France-Russia relations if Le Pen wins the election?

The post #BritainDebrief – What’s at stake in France’s Presidential Election? | A Debrief from Ambassador Gérard Araud appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

What’s at stake in France’s Presidential Election?

As French President Emmanuel Macron maintains a lead ahead of his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen, Senior Fellow Ben Judah interviews Ambassador Gérard Araud, former French Ambassador to the US and Senior Fellow, for #BritainDebrief to discuss how this election will impact France. What is France’s role in NATO? What will happen to the European Union and France-Russia relations if Le Pen wins the election?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – What’s at stake in France’s Presidential Election? | A Debrief from Ambassador Gérard Araud appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Nia joins the Associated Press to discuss the classification of crimes in Ukraine as a ‘genocide’ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/nia-joins-the-associated-press-to-discuss-the-classification-of-crimes-in-ukraine-as-a-genocide/ Tue, 19 Apr 2022 19:59:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=516138 The post Nia joins the Associated Press to discuss the classification of crimes in Ukraine as a ‘genocide’ appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Nia joins the Associated Press to discuss the classification of crimes in Ukraine as a ‘genocide’ appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Experts react: A new leader emerges from Pakistan’s political turmoil. Now what? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-a-new-leader-emerges-from-pakistans-political-turmoil-now-what/ Tue, 12 Apr 2022 18:59:59 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=511929 We reached out to several Pakistan-based experts for their thoughts on new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and what comes next in the pivotal South Asian nation.

The post Experts react: A new leader emerges from Pakistan’s political turmoil. Now what? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
There’s a new bowler in town. Pakistan’s parliament removed cricket star-turned-populist Prime Minister Imran Khan from power on Sunday and, a day later, installed opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. As Khan’s supporters rally in the streets and the ousted premier hopes for a swift return to power, Sharif is working on forming a government, tackling soaring inflation—and guiding his country out of a political crisis. We reached out to Pakistan-based experts for their thoughts on Sharif and what comes next in the pivotal South Asian nation.

Jump to an expert reaction:

Amber Rahim Shamsi: Can Khan’s ‘agitational politics’ mount a comeback?

Farieha Aziz: An opportunity to bring back free speech

Ammar Habib Khan: A brewing economic crisis requires a steady hand 

Can Khan’s ‘agitational politics’ mount a comeback?

The big question for the incoming Shahbaz Sharif-led coalition government will be when to hold elections. The timing will depend on political opportunities and costs, the economic agenda, and administrative delays. The current parliamentary tenure—during which two prime ministers were elected—comes to an end in summer 2023. 

Ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan is pushing for early elections. He is betting on riding a sympathy wave triggered by his narrative of “regime change” through a foreign conspiracy, a notion hyped through rallies. His party also hopes to build pressure for snap polls through resignations from the lower house of parliament. Khan is hoping agitational politics will be enough to overcome the loss of military support and political allies. 

The Sharif government will want the agitations by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to die down as it aims to pick the next army chief before November and avoid the political fallout from the persistent inflation and high taxes that marked the Khan government’s economic management. The government-allied parties also have a legislative agenda to prevent the forms of electoral rigging they condemned in 2018, which included the failure of the electronic results transmission system and alleged irregularities in counting votes.

There are also legal and administrative impediments to early elections—constituencies will need to be redrawn based on a new census due next year. The 2017 census was marred by legal challenges mounted by several political parties that are now allied with Shahbaz Sharif. 

The last government alliance between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) lasted less than a year. The stability of this coalition between the two parties will depend on its ability to see through a common legislative agenda with an eye on the next election. 

Throughout the hybrid regime experiment headed by Khan, the army had to fend off political attacks from the Pashtun nationalist movement called the PTM and subsequently from PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif and his daughter. Now an army that is sensitive to its cohesion, morale, and domestic image will need to contend with an angry Khan and his supporters. 

There were several reports the evening that Khan was ousted that he had tried or threatened to engineer a military coup. The next day, his supporters were on the streets in large numbers calling out the army chief, the judiciary, the government alliance, and the United States, which is accused of facilitating Khan’s removal. 

A number of pro-PTI social media users who have pushed trending hashtags against the army have been arrested, but with more PTI rallies planned in the coming weeks, matters could escalate. It remains to be seen whether Khan, who has been careful not to directly accuse the army chief of collusion so far, will go his rival Nawaz Sharif’s way and openly name the military leadership or, more cunningly, continue to let his support base do the talking. 

Amber Rahim Shamsi is the director of the Center of Excellence in Journalism at IBA Karachi.

An opportunity to bring back free speech

In a tweet on April 9, now Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif congratulated media outlets and civil-society organizations for their efforts in getting the Pakistan Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) Amendment Ordinance—an executive order by the Imran Khan government to restrict free expression—declared unconstitutional by the Islamabad High Court. He also acknowledged what he called “unprecedented curbs on freedom of expression.”

Undoubtedly the striking down of Khan’s amendments to PECA is a welcome step. But the court also struck down language from the 2016 law, which was introduced by Sharif’s PML-N, after a challenge brought by journalists who were victimized by the law. 

It is the 2016 law—bulldozed through parliament by the PML-N as it enjoyed a majority—that was used to clamp down on political opponents, dissidents, activists, and journalists. Khan’s PTI put the law toward the same end and sought to expand its scope, though that effort was challenged and thwarted before it could be used.

Going forward, the hope is that the incoming regime will have learned its lessons and now understands what it means to be discredited, kept off air, be targeted with malicious cases, and prevented from organizing and expressing themselves through ‘legal’ manipulations and extra-legal means—whether online or offline. The expectation of civil society is that the new government will not only put an end to all such policies and practices, but they must ensure illegal detentions of critics do not remain the norm. To do so, the new coalition must withdraw all politically motivated cases under PECA and other laws, take down the social media rules created under PECA, put in the legislative work to undo laws such as PECA, refrain from using media and telecommunications regulators in a partisan manner, and be open to feedback and criticism. That means hearing out the same civil-society groups and media outlets that the prime minister congratulated on what they require to really end Pakistan’s culture of censorship and self-censorship.

—Farieha Aziz, is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.

A brewing economic crisis requires a steady hand 

A commodity supercycle of rising prices that refuses to take a breather, a global transition toward hawkish monetary policy, and the vulnerability of Pakistan’s economy to food and energy prices are going to add a layer of complexity in a volatile political environment. If the populist economic decisions taken by the outgoing government are not reversed, they are going to have an adverse impact on fiscal and external deficits, which would constrain the new government’s capacity to drive meaningful change. 

The first order of business ought to include a phase-out of energy subsidies and ensuring the availability of food staples at affordable prices, which is as much of a supply-chain issue as it is a pricing issue. A phase-out of energy subsidies would lead to a spurt in inflation, followed by second-round effects as goods and wages are repriced. How soft or hard the landing will be depends on whether monetary policy is more proactive or reactive. A resumption of Pakistan’s International Monetary Fund program and securing external funds from key partners would be critical to avoid an external funding crisis, given the excessive reliance of the economy on imported food and energy. On the economic front, the next two quarters will be challenging, and navigating them without any populist uprising backed by the opposition can be deemed a short-term success.

Ammar Habib Khan is a non-resident senior fellow at the South Asia Center.

The post Experts react: A new leader emerges from Pakistan’s political turmoil. Now what? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
How will Russia’s war in Ukraine reshape the European political scene? Look to France. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-will-russias-war-in-ukraine-reshape-the-european-political-scene-look-to-france/ Thu, 07 Apr 2022 21:08:23 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=510759 France's presidential elections this month represent an important barometer of the strength of European populism. Here's how the war has already shaken the campaign.

The post How will Russia’s war in Ukraine reshape the European political scene? Look to France. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
State-against-state warfare is back on the European continent. Governments—including those once considered neutral or risk-averse—have made decisions that had been unthinkable just weeks before: unprecedented sanctions likely to severely hurt their own economies, drastic increases in defense spending, and the delivery of lethal weapons to a country at war.

All this amounts to a new geopolitical reality that the public was not expecting. Now, voters across the continent are facing opportunities to express their views at the polls in a series of key votes.

In Hungary and Serbia, right-wing leaders Viktor Orbán and Aleksandar Vučić successfully played up their ability to protect their populations in the context of the war, convincingly winning elections last weekend. But the upcoming presidential vote in France on April 10—with a second round held April 24—may be the most significant of the lot, given the size and importance of the country. 

The run-up has been like no other in recent memory. With voters already transfixed by the war, few are paying attention to the electoral contest. The campaign itself has offered little reason for voters to refocus: President Emmanuel Macron, the current front-runner—who announced he would run at the last moment—has spent little time on the trail, while most candidates canceled rallies after the war broke out. As a result, a recent poll found only 62 percent of French people are interested in the campaign, a figure that’s far lower than usual.

How the war influences this election could be instructive far beyond France.

The impact on voters

When the war started, 82 percent of the population claimed to be “concerned” by it, with 65 percent saying it will play an important part in determining their vote.

Another poll asked voters to rank the main issues that will shape their choice. Cost of living remains the top one (52 percent), followed by the war in Ukraine (33 percent) and the environment (28 percent). Normally, domestic issues such as employment dominate such polls, but the shift in priorities—in the 2017 presidential election, no foreign or military issues were among the top concerns—stands to reason: The war has already had tangible consequences on the French economy (the rising price of gas, for instance) and society (around thirty thousand refugees have arrived in France). This means the line between foreign and domestic policy is blurred.

The French public is more or less receptive to the Russian narrative on Ukraine, with one out of two believing at least one of the Russian arguments on the origins of the war—such as the notion that the West is pushing Ukraine into NATO or that Russian-speaking Ukrainians support the invasion. But this does not mean they support Russia, since 78 percent of voters in late February believed the Russian invasion was “illegitimate.” All the candidates have condemned the attack, and now pro-Russian voters—already very skeptical of the political and media system—will need to choose from what is available, or sit out the election completely.

The impact on candidates

For their part, the candidates were required to adapt their electoral strategies and, sometimes, their views as the result of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Macron—seen as a solid crisis manager—has benefited from the rally-around-the-flag effect, and statistics show that voters most likely to rank Ukraine as an important factor in their decision are also more likely to vote for him than any other candidate. As president of the Council of the European Union (EU), Macron is also at the front lines when negotiating with the other European leaders at a time when the EU is playing a major role on energy policy, refugees, and financing the delivery of weapons. Yet the political benefits of Macron’s geopolitical role are starting to ebb as the war is not as urgent for the French public as it was when it started.  

The other candidates were aware of the advantage Macron was earning on the world stage. Valérie Pécresse, a right-wing challenger, convened a “strategic council of defense” in an attempt to burnish her own leadership credentials—but it failed to gain traction when compared to Macron’s real-life global leadership. Still, Macron’s advantage could backfire: Juggling a demanding international agenda and electoral campaigning is a difficult task requiring mental agility. Moreover, his crisis managing means he is spending less time explaining his policy proposals to voters.

Meanwhile, the fact that three of the top five candidates—Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon—had once praised Russian President Vladimir Putin has not translated into a real electoral liability for them. The difficulties for Zemmour are more related to his inability to improve his image and to address the concerns of French voters on the economy. On this, at least, Le Pen is on more solid ground, having devoted much time to campaigning specifically on pocketbook issues. Zemmour also failed to connect on the question of refugees. The promise of keeping foreigners out of France has been a signature issue of his campaign, even as the public has warmly welcomed Putin’s Ukrainian victims. At the opposite end of the political spectrum, Mélenchon is the last real hope for the left, so left-wing voters appear ready to overlook his past comments on Russia.

Showing clear support for Ukraine is a strategy struggling candidates adopted. Yannick Jadot, the Green candidate, has been demonstrating in the streets and attacking French companies still doing business with Russia, including accusing TotalEnergies of being “complicit in war crimes.” But there are limits to this tactic: None of the candidates advocated for a non-fly zone, since no one wants France to become a co-belligerent in the war.

Though all candidates have expressed support for Ukraine, the war has revealed deeper shifts.

For example, Jadot and Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo back the continued delivery of weapons for the Ukrainian military and called for an embargo on Russian gas and coal (not as large a sacrifice for France as for Germany, since it has invested heavily in nuclear power), while all the other major candidates opposed the embargo or did not take sides. Le Pen and Mélenchon, who have argued that France should withdraw from NATO’s integrated military command, have had to admit that the timing for this move was not right. The distrust of NATO also extends to European defense, as the far right remains skeptical of strengthening it. Finally, Macron and Pécresse committed to increase military spending, while the left did not make specific commitments.

The politics of uncertainty

The war in Ukraine has put geopolitics front and center in France as in no other recent election. Yet still, only half the population describe themselves as informed about foreign policy, and there are strong misunderstandings—among voters and some candidates alike—about several issues: what NATO is and does, what nuclear deterrence means, what it means to be at war, what France’s vulnerabilities and points of diplomatic leverage actually are.

Unfortunately, however, this month’s race is unlikely to change any of this—and the potentially record level of abstention, at a time of such grave crisis for the democratic world, is a troubling symptom of the lack of enthusiasm of the French people to make their voices heard.

This election has not sparked any passion, within France or abroad, and has been mostly overshadowed in the news by the war in Ukraine. The far right is now the leading political force in the country, and Le Pen could actually win the presidency. Yet few within France are thinking through the repercussions of such a result on European politics and French diplomatic engagement. The winner of the election will play a critical role within the United Nations, NATO, and the EU, as well as dealing with Russia to shape future European security.

With populist victories in Hungary and Serbia, and inflation breaking records, European unity is at stake in this year’s elections. While all eyes are directed toward Ukraine, looking away from rising populists is not an option.


Marie Jourdain is a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center and previously worked for the French Ministry of Defense’s Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy.

The post How will Russia’s war in Ukraine reshape the European political scene? Look to France. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
As no-confidence vote looms, Pakistan’s democracy faces key stress test https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/southasiasource/as-no-confidence-vote-looms-pakistans-democracy-faces-key-stress-test/ Thu, 24 Mar 2022 21:32:58 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=504176 Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan faces a no-confidence motion in the country’s National Assembly (the lower house of its Parliament).

The post As no-confidence vote looms, Pakistan’s democracy faces key stress test appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan faces a no-confidence motion in the country’s National Assembly (the lower house of its Parliament). The motion, which is expected to be tabled on March 25, 2022, will likely be followed by a vote on the prime minister’s future within a week. The move is a result of concerted efforts by opposition parties to unseat Khan. Some members of the prime minister’s own party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), meanwhile have said they too intend to cross the aisle and vote in favor of the motion.

This is not the first time in the history of Pakistan’s democracy that a prime minister has faced a vote of no-confidence, but Imran Khan could be the first to be ousted through one. Infamously, no prime minister in Pakistan’s history has ever completed their full term, either. Should Khan survive the upcoming vote, he might still have a shot at doing so.

The government’s poor performance has helped unite Pakistan’s opposition parties

Last month, Khan announced that he was reducing petrol prices and power tariffs to provide public relief amidst skyrocketing inflation and a steep devaluation of the Pakistani rupee. But the announcement failed to stop the country’s two main opposition parties—the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)—from calling for the government’s ousting. The ruling party has also been criticized for its unpopular choice of chief minister in Punjab, Pakistan’s largest province, where poor administrative control together with reports of nepotism and corruption has eroded political support and galvanized an internal revolt within the ruling party.

Pakistan’s powerful military prefers indirect influence to a coup

Political strife in Pakistan has historically been a catalyst for the military to intervene in politics. Pakistan has had three military coups over the course of its seventy-four year history, and has spent half its existence under direct military rule. The last military dictatorship ended in 2008 and heralded a return to democracy marked by competitive multi-party elections, yet the military remains a powerful actor in Pakistan’s politics. The Army for its part has rejected allegations of political interference, and has publicly asked the country’s opposition as well as the media to refrain from dragging it into politics. That said, many still believe the Army’s support was critical in helping Khan catapult to power in the country’s last general election in 2018. The military is also believed to maintain influence over key political decisions, evident most recently in the divisive appointment of the country’s intelligence services chief. In recent days, Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa also met with the prime minister. While ongoing political intrigue has fueled some speculation that the Army may be withdrawing its tacit support for Khan, behind-the-doors meeting between the two suggests that Army may be looking for ways to avert a major collision that could spur further political and economic instability.

Populist rhetoric has exacerbated the crisis

Prime Minister Khan and his ministers are using populist appeals in an attempt to weather the political storm. These appeals range from accusing the opposition of being part of a foreign conspiracy to destabilize the current government, to criticizing the West for trying to dictate Pakistan’s foreign policy, to invoking religious nationalism to rally Khan’s supporters. The prime minister’s decision to slash power tariffs and petroleum prices, while locally popular, is likely to be at odds with an agreement that his government has undertaken with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce the country’s widening fiscal deficit. The Opposition, in turn, has used the IMF bailout to accuse the prime minister of selling Pakistan’s sovereignty to the West. Indeed, staving off pressure from the IMF while fending attacks from the Opposition will be a difficult balancing act for Khan. In a bid to win and maintain support, both the ruling party as well as the Opposition are likely to step up their use of populist rhetoric, even if it risks economic and political uncertainty.

In the balance: Free and fair elections

Should Prime Minister Khan lose the House’s confidence after the motion is tabled tomorrow, a new National Assembly session will be convened followed by an election for a new leader of the House. It remains to be seen whether the opposition will be able to remain united behind a consensus candidate for the position of prime minister, and indeed whether a stable coalition can make the transition into government or if fresh elections will have to be called. Pakistan’s last two general elections were mired in controversy and allegations of rigging. Indeed, opposition parties in Pakistan maintain that if Khan continues in power and is allowed to choose a new chief of army staff before the country’s next election (currently slated for October 2023), those elections may also not be impartial. The PTI, for its part, has come under criticism for having introduced controversial changes to the country’s Elections Act, which both the opposition and the Election Commission of Pakistan have argued are detrimental to the health of a clean and transparent electoral process.

Uncertainty is the only certainty

The Opposition needs 172 votes in Pakistan’s 342-member National Assembly to unseat Khan, and believes that together with PTI dissidents they may have just enough to make that happen. The prime minister, meanwhile, has warned the opposition that it will “lose this match badly.” The outcome of the vote will be consequential either way. Should Khan survive, he is likely to ratchet up accountability of the Opposition. He will also have to tackle rising prices quickly while consolidating control within his own ranks. Should the Opposition prevail, current leader of the Opposition Shahbaz Sharif has said that political parties intend to form a national government that excludes the PTI. The political uncertainty borne of such a move will not be without implications for a fragile economy, especially if Khan takes to the streets and launches nationwide protests. Irrespective of the prime minister’s fate following the vote, the ability of Pakistan’s delicate democracy to withstand impending political turbulence will determine just how far it has come as well as the miles it still has to go.

The writer is a PhD candidate at Yale University and incoming Assistant Professor at Tufts University’s Department of Political Science. Twitter: @fahdhumayun

The South Asia Center is the hub for the Atlantic Council’s analysis of the political, social, geographical, and cultural diversity of the region. ​At the intersection of South Asia and its geopolitics, SAC cultivates dialogue to shape policy and forge ties between the region and the global community.

The post As no-confidence vote looms, Pakistan’s democracy faces key stress test appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Asat joins PBS to discuss Uyghur human rights amidst China’s Beijing Olympics https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/asat-joins-pbs-to-discuss-uyghur-human-rights-amidst-chinas-beijing-olympics/ Fri, 11 Feb 2022 12:51:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=487540 The post Asat joins PBS to discuss Uyghur human rights amidst China’s Beijing Olympics appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Asat joins PBS to discuss Uyghur human rights amidst China’s Beijing Olympics appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
With Putin poised to invade, Zelenskyy must prioritize Ukrainian unity https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/with-putin-poised-to-invade-zelenskyy-must-prioritize-ukrainian-unity/ Tue, 08 Feb 2022 23:06:58 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=484627 With Russian troops poised to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is time for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to put personal rivalries to one side and unite the country's political forces, says Kira Rudik.

The post With Putin poised to invade, Zelenskyy must prioritize Ukrainian unity appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
For the past three months, Ukraine has been in the global spotlight amid mounting fears that Vladimir Putin is preparing to launch a dramatic escalation in his eight-year undeclared war against the country. Russia has encircled Ukraine to the north, east, and south with over 120,000 troops while demanding guarantees that the West block Kyiv’s NATO membership bid and effectively condemn the country to the geopolitical wilderness.

With Putin’s thinly-veiled threats raising the prospect of Europe’s largest conflict since WWII, the international community has responded by engaging the Kremlin in an intense diplomatic dialogue while providing Ukraine with urgent deliveries of defensive weapons. Meanwhile, journalists from around the world have flooded into Kyiv as Ukraine has become the leading international news story.

It would be reasonable to assume that Ukraine’s own domestic political agenda has also recently been dominated by the looming threat of a full-scale Russian invasion. However, this is not the case. Instead of mobilizing the country’s many different political forces to unite in confronting the Kremlin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spent much of the past few months pursuing divisive policies that risk weakening the country while strengthening his own grip on power.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

One area of concern is the failure to make meaningful progress in much-needed judicial reform. Despite multiple public commitments to advance this key reform, Zelenskyy has been unable to move the long-stalled process forward. The most recent setback came in early February with a third consecutive failed attempt to approve a new anti-corruption prosecutor despite the fact that all the requisite procedural steps were finalized months ago. Critics blame this lack of progress firmly on the Office of the President.

President Zelenskyy’s anti-oligarch law is another indication of a power consolidation that threatens to undermine political competition by granting the president-controlled National Security and Defense Council powers to determine exactly who is an oligarch. Aspects of the law relating to media ownership have grave implications for freedom of speech. Once its comes into force in May 2022, the legislation will potentially allow Zelenskyy to muzzle the Ukrainian media.

There are already alarming signs of unwelcome interference in the information sector. While efforts to combat Russian disinformation are broadly recognized both within Ukraine and by the international community as necessary, there have also been attempts to target individual journalists following criticism of Zelenskyy. Criminal cases against a number of TV channels have also raised eyebrows.

By far the most dangerous development in recent months has been the growing political tension between the current authorities and the country’s opposition forces. In January 2022, former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko was charged with treason in relation to the trade in coal from Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine during his time in office.

Poroshenko is Zelenskyy’s main political rival and is widely tipped to run against him in 2024. While specific details of the charges against Poroshenko have yet to be made public, the prosecution of a key competitor for the presidency has been widely condemned as politically motivated.

Other politicians have also been targeted by the authorities. The State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) recently questioned members of the parliamentary grouping tied to former parliamentary speaker and Zelenskyy critic Dmytro Razumkov. Following criticism of Zelenskyy by Holos party, I was recently summoned for questioning by the SBI over party-related activities dating back to 2020.

The timing of these developments is particularly concerning. Why would the president of a nation under siege from a military superpower turn on his domestic opponents? Whatever the motivations behind President Zelenskyy’s policies, his recent actions undermine national security at what is a critical moment for Ukraine.

By taking steps that bring his commitment to Ukraine’s democratic development into question, Zelenskyy also risks weakening the international community’s resolve to support the country against Russian aggression. Ukraine’s international partners have always maintained that their continued backing reflects support for the historic democratic transformation underway in the country. In this moment of acute danger, it is more crucial than ever to demonstrate the credibility of Ukraine’s democratic credentials.

I believe now is the time for all political forces in Ukraine to unite against the threat of a full-scale Russian invasion. We must put aside political squabbles and personal rivalries while we face the challenge presented by Putin and his ultimatums. The national interest must come before any individual agendas.

Unless we are united, Ukraine will not be strong enough to defend itself. Every Ukrainian politician must ask themselves two key questions before making any decisions: Will this unite or divide Ukrainian society? Will this strengthen or weaken the country?

Ukraine has made historic nation-building progress in recent years, but this journey is far from over. Russia is clearly determined to reverse Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic choice and is seeking to intimidate the international community with the threat of a major European war.

For Ukraine and the wider democratic world, the stakes in the current confrontation could hardly be higher. With the country’s survival as an independent state under threat, Ukraine urgently needs national unity.

Kira Rudik is leader of the Holos party and a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post With Putin poised to invade, Zelenskyy must prioritize Ukrainian unity appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Dagres’ Atlantic Council report on Iranian social media mentioned in Politico’s Morning Tech newsletter https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/dagres-atlantic-council-report-on-iranian-social-media-mentioned-in-politico/ Fri, 14 Jan 2022 18:54:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=480821 The post Dagres’ Atlantic Council report on Iranian social media mentioned in Politico’s Morning Tech newsletter appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Dagres’ Atlantic Council report on Iranian social media mentioned in Politico’s Morning Tech newsletter appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The American torch of democracy is flickering https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-american-torch-of-democracy-is-flickering/ Thu, 06 Jan 2022 12:58:14 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=473368 It won't be easy to fix what led to this radicalization—but nor will it be easy to overthrow American democracy.

The post The American torch of democracy is flickering appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
One year after the attempted putsch of January 6, American democracy remains in peril. 

As it turns out, Americans are neither anointed for easy greatness nor immune to the ills and sins to which other peoples are prone. The wisdom of the ancient philosophers and the American founders about the vulnerability of republics first to chaos and then to tyranny applies to Americans as well as to others whose democracies have failed in the past.

For Americans, the stakes are high. American identity, unlike that of most nations, is rooted not in blood or ethnicity but in self-evident truths of human equality. Through the embrace of such ideals, immigrants to the United States become, as Abraham Lincoln put it, the “blood of the blood and the flesh of the flesh” of all other Americans. Those ideals make the American nation. The political expression of that national identity, rooted in universal truths, is democracy. Give that up and the United States is no longer a “new nation, conceived in liberty.” We would degenerate into an ethno-state, a white man’s country along the lines of the Confederacy—and, if former President Donald Trump and his circle have their way, a tyranny.

The stakes for the world are high as well. American democracy has inspired the world’s democratic movements for longer than many think. After the Union’s victory in the Civil War, the French abolitionist and liberal Édouard René de Laboulaye wanted to celebrate what he and others saw as a twin victory of liberty over the slave state that was the Confederacy and of democracy over chaos or tyranny. He conceived of a great Statue of Liberty to mark that victory. She still stands in New York Harbor, her torch held aloft as inspiration for Europe and the world.

Since 1941, the United States has stood as the bulwark of democracy and liberty in the world. Despite all our mistakes, blunders, and hypocrisies, US leadership has brought about much good. The vision of a free world of republics at peace with one another was not an American idea (it was philosopher Immanuel Kant’s), but the United States was the first great power to try to make it happen. 

Yet now, with American democracy under pressure, its adversaries take new heart. Not since the 1930s, the Great Depression, and the rise of Adolf Hitler in Germany and Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union has democracy seemed so on the defensive and tyrants so emboldened. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping appear to believe that the future belongs to them. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine speaks with glee about American decline while threatening war in Europe. China threatens war to conquer Taiwan. The United States’ democratic friends in Europe and Asia seem disheartened, wondering whether the country that they have taken for granted and relied upon (while complaining about it) can be counted on. 

US President Joe Biden and his team appear to grasp this. They have tried to frame their strategy in terms of a global contest between democracy and aggressive authoritarianism. They recognize that the United States must strengthen democracy at home. Biden, like former President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, seems to understand that the domestic fight against political extremism depends on delivering for the American people. He also seems to understand—as did Roosevelt and former Presidents Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan—that American democracy cannot prosper if it stands alone, beleaguered, in a world in which tyrants are on the march. Thus, Biden is trying to rally the world’s democracies—to help them, and thus ourselves, better contend with contemporary problems and show that democracy can deliver.

It’s a start. 

In the immediate aftermath of the January 6 attack, I wrote that the long-term damage to the country would depend in large part on whether leading Republicans turned away from radicalism. At first it seemed that they might, given the determination with which Congress, in a bipartisan way, reconvened after the rioters had been cleared from the US Capitol to complete their work and recognize Biden’s victory. 

But I was too optimistic. Trump maintains his position as the leading figure in the Republican Party and holds fast to the big lie that he somehow won the 2020 presidential election. With notable exceptions such as US House members Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, leading Republicans have gone silent or equivocated in the face of the attempted overthrow of the electoral process. Trump’s extremist movement appears both determined and committed to authoritarian principles. Just this week, former Trump adviser Peter Navarro defended the attempt to nullify the election result. The Trumpist movement’s activists have continued to defend and advance Trump’s authoritarian message, as the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab has reported. But this isn’t just another fringe political movement; polls show significant support among Republicans for the Trumpist radicalized right.

It will not be easy to fix the problems that led to this radicalization. But nor will it be easy to overthrow American democracy and the constitutional order. At home, the US House’s Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack is at work. So is the US Justice Department in its investigation of the attempt to subvert a presidential election through intimidation and violence.  

Lincoln’s Secretary of State William H. Seward made a good point when he said: “There was always just enough virtue in this republic to save it; sometimes none to spare, but still enough to meet the emergency.” I hope he’s right.


Daniel Fried is the Weiser Family distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. He was the coordinator for sanctions policy during the Obama administration, assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia during the Bush administration, and senior director at the National Security Council for the Clinton and Bush administrations. He also served as ambassador to Poland during the Clinton administration. Follow him on Twitter @AmbDanFried.

The post The American torch of democracy is flickering appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Unpacking the geopolitics of technology https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/unpacking-the-geopolitics-of-technology/ Wed, 08 Dec 2021 11:00:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=465525 In this paper, authors from the Atlantic Council and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland examine the transformation of technology and work in a broader social and political context, look at strategies that different regions of the world employ, and evaluate the transition’s geopolitical impact through alternative futures.

The post Unpacking the geopolitics of technology appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

How second- and third-order implications of emerging tech are changing the world

Developing new technologies used to be primarily an economic and commercial issue, but it is increasingly also about foreign and security policy. Emerging technologies in particular have become both an object and a driver of international cooperation and competition, shaping the global landscape in different and sometimes unexpected ways. To put it simple, high tech has come to signify high politics, too. Today, digital and tech advancements are geopolitical issues of the highest order, even more so with the second wave of digital innovations, which are more systemic in reach and will determine future economic and technological supremacy as well as respective security environments.

The development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, for instance, has become the new playing field for great power competition between the United States and China, both striving for digital supremacy and spheres of economic influence. Such increasing bipolarity in the international system comes with a price tag for many countries around the globe. European states in particular are torn between their alignment in terms of values with the United States and their dependency on close economic ties with China for the sake of their own economic health. In worrying about an escalating rivalry, many countries and state conglomerates have started to pursue their own digital sovereignty, yet lag behind in the global race of tech development, innovation, and cyber capabilities.

On technology-induced societal changes

The international debate concerning technological change also includes many ethical, social, and legal questions in fields such as human rights and individual freedoms, competition and market structure, consumer protection, or public health. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has raised significant questions about the role of technology in crisis management. Conversations around technological advances, new forms of work, and the change in skills needed have dominated the employment policy debate in many countries around the world. The platform economy, technological advances, and artificial intelligence are irrevocably changing economic structures, tasks, and ways of working, and even what we understand by “work.”

Europe, for example, is already a patchwork of highly varied local economies and markets. McKinsey Global Institute claims that by 2030, more than half of Europe’s workforce will face significant transitions. Automation will most likely require almost all workers to gain new skills. About ninety-four million employees may not need to change occupations altogether, but will need retraining, as technology already handles 20 percent of their current activities. While some workers in declining occupations might be able to find similar types of work, estimates indicate that some 21 million will need to change occupations by the end of this decade. Newly created jobs are going to require more sophisticated skills, which are already scarce today, and the potential social implications cannot be underestimated in scale.

Similar trends are becoming obvious in the United States, too. Having studied 702 occupational groupings, Oxford University researchers Carl Frey and Michael Osborne asserted already in 2013 that technology will inevitably transform many sectors of life: there is high probability, they estimated, that 47 percent of US workers will see their jobs automated within two decades. These fears have subsequently been echoed by similar studies inter alia from the European think tank Bruegel, the McKinsey Global Institute, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), showing automation affecting between 14 and 54 percent of jobs in the “near future.” Furthermore, half (48%) of the 1,896 experts surveyed by the Pew Research Center in 2014 envisioned a future „in which robots and digital agents have displaced significant numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers—with many expressing concern that this will lead to vast increases in income inequality, masses of people who are effectively unemployable, and breakdowns in the social order.“ The future is already here, and these effects and trends, in addition to the geopolitical competition over new technologies, will continue to transform our world significantly.

In this paper, authors from the Atlantic Council and the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland examine the transformation of technology and work in a broader social and political context, look at strategies that different regions of the world employ, and evaluate the transition’s geopolitical impact. The change in the global division of labor as well as its impacts are already well known. Consequences of the transformation of work challenge the very basis of the well-being of society, which has traditionally relied on productivity growth to increase wealth and living standards across the board. By all means, the fourth industrial revolution challenges the traditional segmentation describing work, skills, income, and many of the operating principles of society as it is known today. However, even if technology is reshaping the modern workplace and working processes, and jobs are lost sometimes faster than new work can be created, these changes do not happen overnight and decision makers have time to react to them.

This page contains only excerpts of the paper in order to give readers an introduction to the topic and the opportunity to browse through alternative futures. To access all content, please download a digital copy of the report.

Imagining alternative futures

To better understand the geopolitics of technology during the next five to ten years, the authors present three scenarios describing possible future developments. The projections portray a “not-so-distant-future,” in which technological transformation shapes a post pandemic world.

The first scenario, Postpandemic Letdown and Western Disarray (The Local Picture), uncovers the digital divides and inequalities within automated working life and COVID-19 aftershocks. The second scenario, Europe in a Bipolar Tech World (The Global Picture), reflects deepening US-China tensions and a drifting toward a transatlantic split. The third scenario, Counting the Costs of Technonationalism and the Balkanization of Cyberspace (The Regional Picture), depicts regulation and global governance efforts gone wrong. Together they broaden the horizon and underscore the importance of good decision-making today.

The post Unpacking the geopolitics of technology appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Postpandemic letdown and western disarray https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/geotech-cues/postpandemic-letdown-and-western-disarray/ Wed, 08 Dec 2021 10:30:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=465909 After a spurt of inclusive growth, in which most segments saw gains, all the prepandemic structural problems resurfaced, particularly the inequalities that had grown worse under the pandemic.

The post Postpandemic letdown and western disarray appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
This page is only an excerpt of a technology foresight report in order to give readers an introduction to the topic and the opportunity to browse through alternative futures. To access all content, please download a digital copy of the paper or return to the main report page.

Hopes were high in the middle of 2021 that the West would pull out of the pandemic and see accelerated growth and a return to relative normalcy after a year of deep recession. Yet after a spurt of inclusive growth, in which most segments saw gains, all the prepandemic structural problems resurfaced, particularly the inequalities that had grown worse under the pandemic.

Believing it is best not to depend too much on the vagaries of human employment, employers raced to automate as much of their business as possible. For the unskilled and semiskilled, whom everyone depended on for basic services during the pandemic, it was a double whammy. Initially, their wages had grown as employers had no choice but to hike pay to attract any workers. Then, without the necessary tech skills, they soon learned they were expendable when firms began to automate their operations. Despite central banks’ monetary-easing efforts, there was no return to prepandemic full employment. Worker participation rates dropped in the advanced economies as many of the low-skilled workers grew frustrated in the search for good-paying jobs. Over time, many of the unskilled and semiskilled dropped out of the workforce or retired early.

The more tech-savvy workers had largely done well and saw their wages improve in the aftermath of the pandemic. That initial improvement was not, however, replicated year after year. Automation was now also impacting the more complex work processes that formerly required skilled humans to operate. Although not all their jobs were made redundant, there was enough disruption that even retained skilled workers felt the pervasive, growing sense of job insecurity. The prepandemic pattern of capital being remunerated much more than labor resumed. Business leaders made the case that productivity gains from automation had boosted GDP in advanced economies above prepandemic levels and government revenues as well, which helped with increased social welfare demands.

Moreover, automation was helping firms deal with China, which was increasingly unfriendly to Western businesses. After being the other large economy that didn’t suffer a severe recession during the pandemic, China’s growth sputtered in the years following the initial outbreak of the coronavirus. Continuing outbreaks from different variants, such as delta or omicron, crippled parts of Chinese industry. Xi Jinping’s data security reforms also hit China’s tech firms hard. Beijing’s efforts to de-Americanize China’s supply chains— part of the Made in China plan—caused more disruption. With tensions increasing, US and Chinese firms sought to avoid any dealings. European businesses were caught in the crosshairs, and some bowed out of the Chinese market for fear of US secondary sanc- tions while others concentrated on doing business with China and sold off their US interests. With the contraction of global supply chains, US and European firms saw an opportunity to eliminate jobs through advanced automation technologies. Chinese businesses were more constrained in investing in automation technologies as the government was worried about higher unemployment. Robotics and 3D printing also took off in the labor-saving effort by Western businesses.

Workers’ Rights and Reforms

Smaller countries fared better than larger ones in stanching the growing societal divisions that grew out of rapid technology changes. To begin with, the income disparities were not as high in the many smaller European countries that had invested in expensive social welfare efforts. There was an understanding that automation could not be stopped—and shouldn’t be for the sake of improved efficiencies and all-around productivity. After all, automation was a godsend for Western societies with low birth rates and rapidly aging societies. Instead, the unskilled should be incentivized to learn new skills. Indeed, the educational systems would have to be completely remade. Everyone had a right to periodic sabbaticals for months of learning new skills. Just as there was a right to healthcare and retirement, all workers had opportunities for lifelong learning. Businesses could see the benefits.

Larger European countries had a harder time coming around to revamping the whole educational system, despite the benefits these smaller countries were achieving. There was pushback by businesses against another set of enhanced worker rights which the private sector would have to shoulder. In these bigger societies, reform had been more difficult for some time, adding to the challenge undertaking these reforms. In France, for example, where the reelected Macron government had been trying to lessen the burdens on employers, there was worry that enhancing the existing training programs and relatively generous social welfare would be too costly. Critics cited the low educational standards in job-deprived and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas as the real culprit for workers not being able to easily upgrade their skills.

In the United States, deep political partisanship combined with a decentralized educational system slowed any reforms. Americans had seen sagging educational standards for some time, which federal government officials felt increasingly powerless to reverse given much of the authority for the educational sector rested with local and state officials. Conservatives decried the growing role of government in the economy and saw the new proposed training-voucher scheme as pushing the country toward socialism and higher taxes. The growing numbers of college and high-school dropouts fueled populism at both ends of the political spectrum—left and right—leading to a political crisis. When the unemployed staged a million-person march on Washington, the National Guard was called out to protect the protesters from armed right-wing militant groups. As it was, the battles between protesters and the radicals resulted in several hundred dead and much of downtown Washington vandalized. Similar riots broke out across the country. At the congressional midterm elections, lawmakers calling for increased training programs and a top-to-bottom reform of the US education system were elected. Businesses also saw that they had gone too far with automation and promised to retrain existing workers for new jobs instead of just firing them.

New Social Model Evolving

Aided by the lessening of fears of a super-competitive China, Western leaders felt they had some maneuvering room to develop a new social model countering what was the fragmenting effect of the new technologies. Just as World War II had been important for spurring a new social peace buttressed with healthcare and pension benefits for all, the postpandemic era ended up redefining social welfare. Educational excellence would no longer be reserved for the privileged who could pay for it. Everyone had a right to having their abilities fully developed with no one being left behind. For decades, teachers in many Western societies had been poorly paid.

That changed along with the importance of providing a good education to everyone. Several big corporate CEOs took the lead in trying to regain the trust of their employees by offering more social benefits—paying for educational and retraining programs—and promising new employment to those whose jobs were eliminated through automation.

With personal dignity being so connected with employment, the concept of work was expanded. Volunteerism was honored and treated as equivalent to paid work. Moreover, with the rapid expansion of the educational sector, many jobs were created that did not exist before. Small and medium-size businesses—not just the big ones—became more adept at retraining and finding new opportunities for their workers. Where young workers once planned to spend only a few years with an employer, they now found the advantages of staying and benefiting from retraining so enticing that many ended up, like their grandparents, staying with one firm for their whole careers.

At times it had looked like some Western societies would be pulled apart and there was no hope of finding a solution to inequalities. Yet there was a deep, popular well of support for inclusiveness. The pandemic had been an eye-opener for many of the deep divisions in society. For the more tech-savvy, younger, and coming-of-age generation, it was intolerable that the unskilled and semiskilled should be “losers” in the latest technological revolution. Older generations—increasingly victims of automation—also began seeing the benefits of a better social safety net. Over time, the fears fueling populism dissipated and centrist politics came back with the maintenance of a social consensus, a broad-based popular expectation for political leaders.

This page is only an excerpt of a technology foresight report in order to give readers an introduction to the topic and the opportunity to browse through alternative futures. To access all content, please download a digital copy of the paper or return to the main report page.

The post Postpandemic letdown and western disarray appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Europe in a bipolar tech world https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/geotech-cues/europe-in-a-bipolar-tech-world/ Wed, 08 Dec 2021 10:30:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=465922 With no sign of Beijing backing down, the US administration lays out a strategy for restructuring NATO to be targeted on Russia and China, combining its allies from Asia and Europe into an enlarged, redefined alliance.

The post Europe in a bipolar tech world appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
This page is only an excerpt of a technology foresight report in order to give readers an introduction to the topic and the opportunity to browse through alternative futures. To access all content, please download a digital copy of the paper or return to the main report page.

In the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, Biden promised to turn the clock back on Trump’s policy changes. When it came to China, however, Biden piled onto Trump’s hostility toward Beijing. US tariffs on Chinese imports have stayed in place despite Beijing’s call for them to be reduced. The Biden administration, in coordination with the EU, has sanctioned China for its ruthless repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang and taken additional measures to punish the country for cyber hacking. Sino-US tensions continued to build in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. With no sign of Beijing backing down, the US administration lays out a strategy for restructuring NATO to be targeted on Russia and China, combining its allies from Asia and Europe into an enlarged, redefined alliance. Neither European nor Asian allies are keen on these US ideas, but temper their criticism to avoid offending the still predominant superpower.

Squeezed by Sino-US escalating tensions

With both Asians and Europeans less than enthusiastic, Washington puts the enlarged NATO idea on the back burner. Yet Europeans are less able to fend off Washington’s idea of resurrecting the Cold War-era Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom), which was used to embargo exports of sensitive materials to communist countries. The US administration believes the competition over emerging technologies is at the heart of the conflict with China. Many in Washington subscribe to the belief that the Asian country has only become the leading tech competitor through its theft of US intellectual property. Besides export controls of cutting-edge tech, decision makers seek to wean Europe off China’s tech exports. Denying the country’s tech giants market access to Europe and the United States would, American strategists believe, curb Chinese innovation.

Increased US extraterritorial measures mean that the EU finds it hard to proceed with its goal of “strategic autonomy” and finding a “third way” without European businesses incurring restrictions on access to US markets. The US administration says it will offset any harsh anti-Chinese measures by offering greater support to the Europeans against Russia. Northern European export-dependent economies are likely to be conflicted and divided in their reactions to such an anti-Chinese push by Washington. The Baltic states, ever mindful of the Russian threat, are an exception and welcome the increased US commitment. At the same time, the Baltic states have been part of the 16+1 format with China, a platform initiated by Beijing to foster cooperation; although they lack deep ties with China, most of them have been hoping (like other Eastern Europeans) for more Chinese investment and trade. Under pressure from Washington, the countries of the region sign on to the US offer, sacrificing the possibility of strong economic ties with the Asian giant.

By contrast, the Scandinavian nations and Germany find the increased hostility toward China under Biden or any other subsequent US president very unwelcome. Berlin’s most important trading partner is China; Finland is the biggest EU investor in China in proportion to the size of its economy, and China is Sweden’s largest trading partner in Asia. Overall, the EU has become the country’s biggest trading partner and the two sides—EU and China—recently signed an upgraded trade deal, expanding the one that was signed and then halted in 2021. Squeezed between the United States and China, the Europeans—particularly Nordic nations and Germany— would pay a stiff economic price for going along with any US strictures against China and would use their diplomatic power to argue for a course change in US foreign policy.

Other EU countries are less economically dependent on China, but resent US interference and push back against US extraterritorial measures while professing their commitment to strong transatlantic ties. The EU tries to walk a fine line and neither offend Beijing nor Washington, finding it increasingly hard to defy American decision-makers on sanctions and tariffs against China without endangering US/NATO security guarantees.

All European governments on edge

At home, the European social model is under increasing pressure. Like the United States, many EU member states instituted new taxes on the wealthy to cover budget shortfalls. While subsiding during the first waves of the coronavirus, populism is on the upsurge again. After the initial economic surge, European economies slow, giving populism a new lease on life. The EU and immigrants are targets for the renewed surges, and nationalists are gaining election victories in multiple member states. There is a growing sentiment in favor of protectionism and the establishment of more border controls. Eastern Europeans even begin refusing entry to European citizens with immigrant backgrounds.

European split on a single foreign policy

Despite initial efforts to find a united middle ground, Europe splits and wavers in the face of US pressure. France and the Baltic, one or two of the Nordic, and several East European states try to temper growing US antagonism, but share Washington’s worries about a “hyperpuissance” in the East. Since Brexit, the United Kingdom has been trying to open new markets in Asia, including in China, but sees no real alternative to the United Sates remaining its closest ally. London remains the first to always accede to US pressure.

The Baltic and East European governments worry that Russia will take advantage of Western weakness and intervene in their countries. Moscow’s strong ties with China are seen as giving Putin more self-confidence despite Russia playing a junior role to Beijing. Germany and some of the Nordic states become even more adamant in their belief that China is their economic lifeline. With Western markets slowing, Asia looks to be the only outlet. Italy and some of the Eastern European states like Hungary are also eager for new Chinese investments, and hedge their bets.

Out with strategic autonomy, in with hedging

The growing split and mutual attacks by the two internal camps paralyze the EU. The initial rescue package that many observers saw as a step toward greater integration is never repeated. The idea of strategic autonomy is forgotten. Enlargement is at a standstill despite renewed calls from Ukraine, Georgia, and others seeking entry. China’s deteriorating human rights record and saber-rattling against Taiwan angers many European publics, sparking a growing popular movement throughout Europe opposed to China. Germany seeks to mediate, going along with some punitive measures against Beijing and Moscow, but diluting others. Berlin and Paris publicly object to US interference in EU affairs.

Europeans in both camps secretly welcome Chinese efforts to invest in developing countries, hoping the economic assistance can help stimulate economic activity and tamper migration even though they fear the Chinese efforts will end up bolstering authoritarianism throughout the world. Yet European countries don’t have the means to engage even in their traditional backyards. Paris has given up its fight against terrorism in the Sahel. Europe watches as Russia and China increasingly call the shots in Africa and the Middle East. Focused on battling China in East Asia, the US administration puts the blame on Europe for these failures, without wanting to intervene itself. The only united effort that all member states can still agree on is beefing up maritime patrols in the Mediterranean to close the EU’s external southern border.

In Washington, there is finger-pointing over who lost Europe. There’s a growing realization that the United States overreached despite its initial effort to rally the West. While in Europe, there is a worry about the future of the European project. Both the United States and the EU seek to paper over differences, but for China, the transatlantic split is further evidence of Western decline, feeding the hardliners’ appetite for more aggressive actions to expand Chinese influence in the region and beyond.

This page is only an excerpt of a technology foresight report in order to give readers an introduction to the topic and the opportunity to browse through alternative futures. To access all content, please download a digital copy of the paper or return to the main report page.

The post Europe in a bipolar tech world appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Counting the costs of technonationalism and the balkanization of cyberspace https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/geotech-cues/counting-the-costs-of-technonationalism-and-the-balkanization-of-cyberspace/ Wed, 08 Dec 2021 10:30:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=465926 While it started as a well-meaning effort to prevent disinformation and propagation of violent extremism, the increasing regulation began to fracture the Internet into at least three largely separate regimes, reinforcing the forces of technonationalism and protectionism.

The post Counting the costs of technonationalism and the balkanization of cyberspace appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
This page is only an excerpt of a technology foresight report in order to give readers an introduction to the topic and the opportunity to browse through alternative futures. To access all content, please download a digital copy of the paper or return to the main report page.

Two trends come together: digital sovereignty and fighting disinformation. At one time, Western democracies were committed to an open, free Internet with minimal government involvement. That was, however, before the social media channels became the arena for hatred and disinformation. The Europeans got angry when the big US tech giants did such a poor job policing it. In the United States, Republican politicians accused the tech companies of being biased, banning Trump and other conservatives from Twitter as well as other outlets. At the same time, many moderate politicians, like their European counterparts, thought Facebook, Google, and others could do a better job eliminating hate speech. Worldwide, “Internet sovereignty” was catching on. Already in 2019, thirty-three governments shut down the Internet 213 times, up from the previous year. Whereas “Internet sovereignty” was once associated just with China’s “Great Firewall” of censorship, it became popular with other governments, such as India, Russia, Turkey, and Indonesia, too.

While there were varying degrees of government control over the Internet, the trend line became clearer and darker as democracies moved in the direction of authoritarianism, believing that liberal markets were no model for the digital age. While they still decried China’s growing repression and use of social media to target dissidents, the Internet was seen as a threat to democracy, too, rather than a bulwark—the way it was originally portrayed. For Western elites, the unregulated digital space was a conveyor belt of disinformation, making it virtually impossible to govern. The French post-pandemic presidential election, for instance, was marred by widespread disinformation campaigns both by domestic as well as international foes of President Macron. The newly elected president blamed his near-defeat (it was only on the recount that he emerged victorious) on the disinformation coming from right-wing extremists. Anti-immigrant groups throughout Europe were active in trying to defeat him and other liberal forces.

The right-wing, Trump-supported attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, had been pivotal in persuading lawmakers that there had to be more oversight of social media. For many progressives in the Democratic Party, the tech companies were too big and monopolistic anyway and should be broken up. It was only a half step for them to call for more regulation of the companies to prevent the spread of domestic radicalism. The United States also instituted curbs on Chinese technology, including their apps. The government in Beijing moved to tightly regulate China’s tech companies’ operations abroad, convincing US regulators that those companies could not be trusted with data gathered in the United States. Over time, US tech companies saw their market share dwindle in China and Asia, as more and more US government regulatory curbs encouraged Chinese tech companies to leave the US market, too.

While it started as a well-meaning effort to prevent disinformation and propagation of violent extremism, the increasing regulation began to fracture the Internet into at least three largely separate regimes, reinforcing the forces of technonationalism and protectionism. Because of security fears, the United States and China became highly protected tech markets; Europe has less of a choice, not having tech champions of its own, so both US and Chinese tech companies operated there, but under EU regulatory control. The economic costs of such a fractionalizing of the Internet were staggering. Before all the new regulation, a report by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) had estimated that at least half of all trade in services is ICT-enabled (between 50 and 56 percent); digital commerce would account for 25 percent of global trade by 2025; and that this percentage would likely accelerate by an order of magnitude over the coming decade.

Efforts to negotiate globally agreed standards governing the use of software codes, data sharing, and/or commercialization of private content and storage of data, as well as minimally accepted standards on privacy—vital for the continuing flow of data—broke down or became too complex in view of the proliferation of national requirements. Digital commerce depends on open commercial, scientific, and academic data flows. Without such flows, joint research efforts also ceased to exist. Increasingly, scientists were only working with counterparts in their own country, not those outside. In particular, the number of Chinese students and researchers in the United States began to dwindle significantly.

The medical and other supply chain shocks from COVID-19, combined with the growing US distrust of China, lent support to the increasing protectionism and breakdown in flows of information and people. In addition, the United States sought to export its standards. Even before the recent regulatory-driven breakup, the American decision-makers had tried to mobilize support for anti-China “clean networks” banning Huawei infrastructure. It wasn’t always successful, however. China offered too many economic enticements for countries even in the United States’ own backyard—Latin America— for all countries in the region to fall in line with Washington’s dictates.

Europeans decide to fight back

Europeans began to worry about their own ability to trade—not just with China but other countries in China’s orbit—and stayed out of the US clean networks program themselves, even though they followed many of the guidelines for their domestic systems due to worries, for example, about the security of data running over Huawei-built infrastructure. Brussels therefore began efforts to counterbalance the fractionalizing of cyberspace, calling on Washington and Beijing to support an international effort to map the future of the world’s climate, using the latest breakthroughs in quantum computing. Taking a leaf out of its own history, EU leaders thought cooperation on climate—a pressing interest for all, like the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community after WWII—could decrease the centrifugal dynamics of technonationalism.

At first, Washington was wary, but when it saw Brussels sign an agreement with Beijing for a joint research effort, it wanted in. The EU said there would be no proprietary information. The detailed output—a mapping of likely effects of climate change over the next hundred years—would be a free good for countries participating in the project. Such data would be the basis for policy decided by the next UN Climate Conference, which the Europeans were scheduled to host. Any country not participating would be at a disadvantage. The fruits of an international brain trust using the latest quantum computing could demonstrate how cooperation was much more powerful than competition and conflict, curbing for a time at least the growing US-China hostility. Without more international cooperation on climate change, decision makers risked incalculable harm to everyone’s future. Were Americans really ready to balkanize the Internet if it meant undermining prospects for global innovation that could help save the planet? Moreover, EU leaders were confident that young people everywhere would side with them, putting pressure on Washington and Beijing to limit their competition and explore avenues for an era of great power cooperation.

This page is only an excerpt of a technology foresight report in order to give readers an introduction to the topic and the opportunity to browse through alternative futures. To access all content, please download a digital copy of the paper or return to the main report page.

The post Counting the costs of technonationalism and the balkanization of cyberspace appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ukraine’s Anti-Oligarch Law: President Zelenskyy’s populist power grab? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-anti-oligarch-law-president-zelenskyys-populist-power-grab/ Mon, 15 Nov 2021 16:43:42 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=457257 Ukraine's anti-oligarch law is being trumpeted by President Zelenskyy's supporters as a move to reduce the influence of Ukraine’s oligarch elite. However, it looks more like a populist ploy to strengthen presidential powers, writes Holos leader Kira Rudik.

The post Ukraine’s Anti-Oligarch Law: President Zelenskyy’s populist power grab? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The anti-oligarch law recently signed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being trumpeted by his supporters as a landmark step in the struggle to reduce the political influence of Ukraine’s oligarch elite. However, this legislation looks more like an attempt to conceal the strengthening of presidential powers behind a facade of populist rhetoric.

In order to appreciate the reality of Zelenskyy’s anti-oligarch legislation, it is important to understand the roots of the oligarchic system as it exists in today’s Ukraine. In 1991, Ukraine gained independence with a 70-year legacy of state ownership. Those with ties to the former Communist regime emerged as the first generation of post-independence oligarchs.

The second generation of oligarchs took shape as the 1990s progressed and key economic assets became concentrated in the hands of several dozen people, many of whom remain active players in Ukrainian politics and the economy. A number of oligarch clans with regional ties to Kyiv, Dnipro, and Donetsk grew to dominate many aspects of Ukraine’s national life and compete for access to state resources.

Every oligarch clan had its own ensemble of loyal MPs, ministers, and officials in various positions throughout the state apparatus. By the time President Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014, virtually all key sectors of the Ukrainian economy were under the control of the oligarchs. Crucially, this control also extended to the Ukrainian media.

Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity and the subsequent undeclared war with Russia have created a new set of challenges for the oligarchic system. Since 2014, Ukraine has witnessed the emergence of a genuinely independent National Bank along with independent management at state energy giant Naftogaz. Decentralization reforms have deprived central government of its monopoly on control of state budgets. At the same time, the state has been empowered by security considerations in response to ongoing Russian aggression.

While these developments placed some limitations on oligarch influence, they did not succeed in derailing the oligarchic system as a whole. Frustration over the continued power of the oligarch clans was a key factor behind Zelenskyy’s presidential election victory in 2019, when he came to power amid campaign trail commitments to combat the old elite and usher in a new era of greater equality.

Many voters expected Zelenskyy to attack the oligarchs in one way or another. Instead, during the first two years of his presidency, he has undermined many earlier steps to curtail oligarch influence. The independence of the National Bank and Naftogaz has been limited, while other major state-owned assets have fallen under oligarch control. Meanwhile, changes to the country’s tax code have targeted small businesses and households while leaving oligarch interests relatively untouched.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

The measures required in order to genuinely limit the power of Ukraine’s oligarch clans are well known. These include the creation of an independent judiciary; strengthening of antitrust laws and antitrust authorities; corporate governance reform in the public sector; elimination of tax benefits for big business; and greater transparency in media funding.

There is nothing to indicate that the present Ukrainian authorities plan to implement any of these steps. Instead, they appear to have chosen populist anti-oligarch posturing as a tool to tackle political opponents, while at the same time maintaining or even strengthening relations with favored oligarch clans.

The Office of the President has created deliberately vague anti-oligarch legislation that does not contain any objective steps to limit oligarch influence. Instead, it enables the National Security and Defense Council, which is personally appointed by the president, to determine who is an oligarch and who should face restrictions on owning media or participating in the political life of the country.

For example, the legislation defines “media influence” in terms of ownership, funding, and influence over editorial policy. Does the placement of advertising by oligarch-owned companies constitute funding? Would this be classified as a way of influencing editorial policy? It all depends on the interpretation favored by the National Security and Defense Council, which was not constitutionally intended for such a role.

Recent developments illustrate why many remain skeptical about talk of an anti-oligarch crusade. As soon as the anti-oligarch bill was signed into law by President Zelenskyy in early November, former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko immediately sold his media assets. Nevertheless, a number of MPs from Zelenskyy’s own Servant of the People party argued that this would not prevent Poroshenko from being identified as an oligarch due to uncertainties in the application of the new law. Notably, other oligarchs with large media empires who enjoy friendlier relations with Zelenskyy did not seem at all bothered by the new legislation.

Due to the obvious potential for highly subjective and politically motivated application, I regard Ukraine’s anti-oligarch legislation as a power grab disguised in the language of political populism.

Zelenskyy could certainly use a boost to his flagging ratings, following the failure to contain Covid-19 and a number of damaging corruption scandals. This new law could prove popular with large sections of the Ukrainian electorate who hunger for an end to the impunity of the oligarchs. More importantly, it can be used to attack Zelenskyy’s political opponents.

The current authorities seem to be convinced that Zelenskyy’s falling approval ratings are primarily the result of information attacks rather than their own weak policies and political mistakes. It is therefore likely that the new anti-oligarch law will be selectively used and will spark new conflicts between the government and big business. Instead of serving as a tool to reduce oligarch influence, there is a danger the law will become an instrument of pressure and coercion that will plunge the country into crisis and derail badly needed reforms.

Kira Rudik is leader of the Holos party and a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Ukraine’s Anti-Oligarch Law: President Zelenskyy’s populist power grab? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ukraine’s anti-oligarch law could make President Zelenskyy too powerful https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-anti-oligarch-law-could-make-president-zelenskyy-too-powerful/ Sun, 07 Nov 2021 01:46:29 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=454603 President Zelenskyy has trumpeted the country's new anti-oligarch law as a meaningful step towards curbing the power of Ukraine's oligarch class, but critics fear it may actually make Zelenskyy himself too powerful.

The post Ukraine’s anti-oligarch law could make President Zelenskyy too powerful appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Anyone anticipating that the anti-oligarch bill recently signed into law by President Zelenskyy marks a new beginning for Ukraine will have had their hopes dampened last week when the National Council on Television and Radio Broadcasting announced the awarding of regional television rights.

A total of 130 bidders were competing for 43 frequencies, but more than a third were scooped up by a single company, Avers, owned by Ihor Palytsia, a parliamentarian and close ally of oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky. The controversial oligarch has ties to Zelenskyy and was sanctioned by the US earlier this year over allegations of “significant corruption.”

What should have been a step forward for media pluralism in Ukraine thus turned into a tightening of control in the hands of those who already enjoy too much media power. As the owner of 1+1 Media Group, consisting of eight television channels with a combined audience share of around 20%, Kolomoisky wields significant political influence in today’s Ukraine. His media assets were used to promote the 2019 election campaign of President Zelenskyy, whose hit shows previously aired on Kolomoisky’s network.

Zelenskyy stands accused of maintaining links to the oligarch since taking office, shaping the policies and personnel of his government in line with Kolomoisky’s interests and reaping positive media coverage in return. That dependency is likely to increase as the president wrestles with mid-term unpopularity and begins to plan his 2024 re-election campaign.

There are few grounds for thinking that Ukraine’s recently adopted anti-oligarch law will do much to alter this power dynamic. Critics argue that the criteria for determining who qualifies as an oligarch are either subjective or open to manipulation. What defines involvement in political life when the linkages between wealth and power are usually private and deniable? What constitutes a monopoly when ownership and control of business assets are often exercised through proxies?

It is hardly reassuring that the job of adjudicating on these matters will fall to the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), a body wholly under presidential control. Applying the provisions of the bill objectively and fairly requires the involvement of an independent agency with proper investigative powers subject to transparent and accountable working practices. Without that, it looks ominously like a mechanism of executive power aimed primarily at settling scores with selected rivals, especially former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

Can we expect the NSDC to look honestly at the connections between Kolomoisky and the Office of the President when seeking to determine his involvement in politics? What efforts will it make to uncover the full extent of Kolomoisky’s business empire, given that much of his wealth is held outside Ukraine? This has become a particular point of sensitivity for Zelenskyy following the leak of the Pandora Papers and revelations that he holds significant wealth offshore, much of it derived from earlier work for Kolomoisky’s media empire. The conflicts of interest are too great to have much confidence in a process falling directly under presidential authority.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Another major deficiency in the bill is that it does nothing to address the problem of local oligarchic networks, many of which represent a significant problem in their own right. To highlight one example, Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov is accused of running the city and its surrounding region as a personal fiefdom for six years. Opponents claim the real power behind the throne has always been local powerbroker Hennadiy Korban.

Both men have been close allies of Kolomoisky for many years, despite a brief falling out. They stand accused of serious abuses of power including claims by the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine that Dnipro is now among the most dangerous places for Ukrainian journalists to work following the alleged beating of local television crews by Filatov’s Municipal Guards earlier this year.

No action has been taken by the authorities in Kyiv over these allegations and none is expected. Korban and Filatov are now said to exert influence on Zelenskyy’s office via the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Kryrl Tymoshenko, a PR specialist and Kolomoisky associate from Dnipro who has worked with Korban and Filatov in the past.

This relationship will likely become more important to Zelenskyy as he prepares to fight for re-election since the two men are at the forefront of efforts to mobilise regional political leaders from across Ukraine in support of the president as part of a newly formed Congress of Local and Regional Authorities. Expediency means that Korban and Filatov will probably continue to enjoy a relatively free hand in Dnipro.

Ukraine’s Western partners can’t afford to be indifferent to the deficiencies of Zelenskyy’s deoligarchization strategy. At best, it represents a missed opportunity to address an issue that has been at the root of the country’s developmental malaise ever since independence. At worst, it risks becoming a tool for perpetuating the very problems it is meant to tackle.

Ukraine’s oligarchy cannot be dealt with selectively and any attempt to do so should be condemned. The minimum requirement is that implementation of the rules should be handled transparently and impartially by an independent authority. This should come with a requirement on the government and president to be open about their relationships with those who wield significant private wealth.

The US and EU should be monitoring implementation of the bill and pressing for changes that reflect international best practice. Any revisions need to take into consideration the recommendations of the Venice Commission, which are expected by the end of the year.

If Ukraine’s recently adopted anti-oligarch law fails to deal effectively and even-handedly with the problem of oligarchic influence, Western governments should signal their willingness to impose additional targeted sanctions on those who enjoy impunity despite being responsible for corruption and human rights abuses. Experience has shown that this remains the most effective way to focus minds and encourage progress.

David Clark was Special Adviser on Europe at the UK Foreign Office 1997-2001 and now works as an independent analyst specializing in foreign policy and European affairs.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Ukraine’s anti-oligarch law could make President Zelenskyy too powerful appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – A foreign correspondent’s view: US culture war in Britain? A debrief from Yasmeen Serhan https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-a-foreign-correspondents-view-us-culture-war-in-britain-a-debrief-from-yasmeen-serhan/ Wed, 28 Jul 2021 14:08:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=473058 On this #BritainDebrief, staff writer for The Atlantic Yasmeen Serhan discusses the impact of domestic US culture wars on Britain.

The post #BritainDebrief – A foreign correspondent’s view: US culture war in Britain? A debrief from Yasmeen Serhan appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

Have American culture wars come to Britain?

For the second in a series for #BritainDebrief asking foreign correspondents based in the UK about the country’s predicament, Europe Center senior fellow Ben Judah spoke to Yasmeen Serhan, a London-based staff writer at The Atlantic. Yasmeen is the author of a recently acclaimed piece “What Euro 2020 has revealed about Englishness” and covers populism and nationalism.

Are US-style culture wars coming to Britain? Does US media impose a narrative on the UK? How are issues of race and identity similar but different on both sides of the Atlantic. And what’s the right word for the Special Relationship between both countries, given Boris Johnson reportedly doesn’t like the term?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – A foreign correspondent’s view: US culture war in Britain? A debrief from Yasmeen Serhan appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – A foreign correspondent’s view: Is British democracy at risk? A debrief from Annette Dittert https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-a-foreign-correspondents-view-is-british-democracy-at-risk-a-debrief-from-annette-dittert/ Fri, 23 Jul 2021 14:15:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=473071 For this #BritainDebrief, journalist Annette Dittert sits down with Ben Judah to explore the healthy of democracy in Britain.

The post #BritainDebrief – A foreign correspondent’s view: Is British democracy at risk? A debrief from Annette Dittert appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

A foreign correspondent’s view: Is British democracy at risk?

In the first of a new series interviewing foreign correspondents based in Britain on their views on the country’s predicament, Europe Center senior fellow Ben Judah spoke to Annette Dittert, Senior Correspondent and Bureau Chief of Germany’s ARD, who is the author of a viral piece published in English in the New Statesman “The Politics of Lies” on covering what she sees as an erosion of the rule of law.

Is the situation similar to that of Poland and Hungary a decade ago? What makes Johnson’s ” the politics of lies?” And how does this shape Britain’s image in Germany and Europe more widely?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – A foreign correspondent’s view: Is British democracy at risk? A debrief from Annette Dittert appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
#BritainDebrief – Britain vs. disinformation: A crisis or an exaggeration? A debrief from David Patrikarakos https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/britain-debrief/britaindebrief-britain-vs-disinformation-a-crisis-or-an-exaggeration-a-debrief-from-david-patrikarakos/ Fri, 16 Jul 2021 12:47:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=473401 Journalist and author David Patrikarakos joins #BritainDebrief for a discussion on how disinformation is impacting Britain.

The post #BritainDebrief – Britain vs. disinformation: A crisis or an exaggeration? A debrief from David Patrikarakos appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

Britain vs. disinformation: A crisis or an exaggeration?

From vaccines and Brexit to foreign ops, the subject of disinformation and how to handle it is constantly invoked in the UK debate. But how much of the threat is this really? To find out, Europe Center senior fellow Ben Judah spoke to David Patrikarakos, journalist and author of War in 140 Characters: How Social Media is Reshaping Conflict in the Twenty-First Century for #BritainDebrief.

What has the UK done right? And what is the UK doing wrong faced with this problem? And is the issue really the content?

You can watch #BritainDebrief on YouTube and as a podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

MEET THE #ATLANTICDEBRIEF HOST

The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.

The post #BritainDebrief – Britain vs. disinformation: A crisis or an exaggeration? A debrief from David Patrikarakos appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Nooruddin quoted in Wall Street Journal on how Covid-19 has punctured Narendra Modi’s aura https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/https-www-wsj-com-articles-covid-19-punctures-narendra-modis-aura-as-some-supporters-sour-on-indias-strongman-11623643694/ Tue, 15 Jun 2021 17:37:36 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=405123 The post Nooruddin quoted in Wall Street Journal on how Covid-19 has punctured Narendra Modi’s aura appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Nooruddin quoted in Wall Street Journal on how Covid-19 has punctured Narendra Modi’s aura appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The gathering threat to the US in Kyrgyzstan https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-gathering-threat-to-the-us-in-kyrgyzstan/ Wed, 02 Jun 2021 11:00:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=398068 As President Sadyr Japarov takes aim at Kyrgyz and US institutions, the US has not only an opportunity but a responsibility to help with democracy-building and make sure the Kyrgyz people get the message.

The post The gathering threat to the US in Kyrgyzstan appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
When Netflix and Amazon seek out a plot for the next big political thriller, they should look no further than Kyrgyzstan. The circumstances under which Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov came to power are ones for the history books, if not the big screen.

It’s not often that a convicted kidnapper serving an eleven-year jail term morphs from prisoner to prime minister and president of his country in a matter of days. But when protesters, angered by fraudulent parliamentary elections, took to the streets last fall, Japarov was not only liberated but celebrated by a large contingent of Kyrgyz citizens who consider him to be a populist savior. Since his ascent to power in October, he has been hard at work gutting Kyrgyzstan’s ministries, rewriting its constitution, and seeking revenge against his critics, not least of which is the United States.

The cinematic elements of Kyrgyzstan’s unraveling political narrative were not lost on US Ambassador Donald Lu, who remarked last year that although the story bore a striking resemblance to “a Hollywood mafia movie,” the ending was not yet foretold. As Lu moves on to his new role in the US State Department overseeing Central and South Asia, his successor has not only an opportunity but a responsibility to stand up to the Japarov regime and curtail its attacks on Kyrgyz and US institutions.

In the past few months, the Kyrgyz security services have been cracking down on NGOs, journalists, academics, and anyone with the nerve to directly or indirectly criticize Japarov. US organizations have likewise found themselves targeted. Andrew Kuchins, a respected Central Asia scholar and the president of the American University of Central Asia (AUCA), was brought into the Kyrgyz Ministry of Interior for questioning about illegally importing drugs. The absurd insinuations against Kuchins will hopefully be dropped, but they were almost certainly intended to send a message not just to the university but also to Washington. What’s more, the accusations leveled against Kuchins are part of a disturbing crackdown on Kyrgyz civil society as a whole.

That AUCA and its president have been caught up in a state-sanctioned battle over progressive and liberal-minded institutions is not that surprising. Kyrgyz dissident and human-rights activist Leila Nazgul Seiitbek suggested in an interview that one potential explanation for this incident is retaliation for US criticism of Japarov and scrutiny of organized crime in Kyrgyzstan. Lu has not shied away from calling attention to Japarov’s abuses and has vocally highlighted the case of Kyrgyz customs official Raimbek Matraimov, who is facing sanctions under the US Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act for his involvement in a scheme that relieved the Kyrgyz treasury of over $700 million through an elaborate smuggling empire. The attack on the president of what is arguably the United States’ most important lever of soft power in the region serves as a warning not to make waves in Bishkek.

Among the absurd accusations lobbed at AUCA is the charge that the university is turning the Kyrgyz gay. That is according to a series of videos circulating on social media that highlight the dangers posed by women’s-rights and LGBTQ activists, who the videos claim pose a direct threat to traditional Kyrgyz values and are capable of plunging countries into chaos. The videos warn that the United States is planning to start a war in Central Asia and name USAID, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and other pillars of US soft power as agents of Kyrgyz destruction. The videos feature alarming surveillance footage of AUCA students and NED representatives, suggesting they could be the work of state security services.

These apparent attempts to intimidate and silence American institutions and their Kyrgyz partners merit the full attention of Lu’s successor. Washington’s interest in Central Asia has been waning for some time—and for good reason. As the United States plans to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, it has even less justification than usual to engage with Central Asia. (Although the US government is reportedly discussing basing American troops in a number of Central Asian countries, Kyrgyzstan didn’t make the list.) In terms of US interests, Kyrgyzstan is far from a priority. There is also no way that the United States can reasonably outspend Russia or China in a region that is a priority for Moscow and Beijing.

But a few things are certain.

American soft power and democracy-building efforts make a tangible difference when it comes to the safety and civil liberties of the Kyrgyz people. The United States and European Union are among Kyrgyzstan’s only allies in the fight to keep independent media alive.

Allowing the government of Kyrgyzstan to entrench itself by scapegoating the United States and other Western powers has the potential to fuel dangerous anti-American sentiment that could manifest itself in organizations like the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), which has recruited from Kyrgyzstan.

American government agencies spend between forty and sixty million dollars a year in Kyrgyzstan on a variety of initiatives meant to improve quality of life and governance in the country, but it seems that many Kyrgyz people don’t enjoy the benefits of these programs or associate those benefits with the United States. An EU-funded public opinion poll in 2017 found that less than half of Kyrgyz respondents felt that the US-Kyrgyzstan relationship was on good footing. The fact that the Kyrgyz state’s attempts to vilify the United States resonate so widely points to at best a public-relations failure and at worst grave mismanagement of resources that aren’t reaching those who need them. When China builds a factory in Kyrgyzstan, the Kyrgyz know who built it. Russia, likewise, is careful to claim credit for its soft-power contributions. 

The United States must do the same. Washington needs to continually make the argument that the West is not the cause of Kyrgyzstan’s problems. It cannot allow Japarov to make it the scapegoat for the country’s endemic corruption and inequality. As Japarov takes an ax to Kyrgyzstan’s parliament, ministries, and criminal code while forcing civil society underground, he is steadily eliminating anyone who might challenge him.

Lillian Posner is an assistant managing editor at The National Interest. She holds a master’s degree in Russian, Eurasian, and East European Studies from Georgetown.

Further reading

The post The gathering threat to the US in Kyrgyzstan appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
D’Anieri in The National Interest: Kyrgyzstan’s Japarov emulates Putin’s authoritarian model https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/danieri-in-the-national-interest-kyrgyzstans-japarov-emulates-putins-authoritarian-model/ Thu, 27 May 2021 14:13:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=503266 The post D’Anieri in The National Interest: Kyrgyzstan’s Japarov emulates Putin’s authoritarian model appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Original Source

The post D’Anieri in The National Interest: Kyrgyzstan’s Japarov emulates Putin’s authoritarian model appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The urgent task before the US and EU: To craft democracy that ‘delivers’ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-urgent-task-before-the-us-and-eu-to-craft-democracy-that-delivers/ Wed, 05 May 2021 15:56:28 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=386319 Věra Jourová, vice-president for values and transparency at the European Commission, and US Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) joined the Atlantic Council's EU-US Future Forum to discuss how to defend democracy.

The post The urgent task before the US and EU: To craft democracy that ‘delivers’ appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The challenges of economic upheaval and threats posed by China and Russia, common to both the European Union (EU) and the United States, are increasing the urgency on both sides of the Atlantic of proving to citizens that democracy is the ticket to a better life—a notion that is no longer a given, according to Věra Jourová, vice-president for values and transparency at the European Commission, and US Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT). Doing so will require a more robust social-safety net, Murphy argued, along with an aggressive defense against misinformation, Jourová said. 

Jourová and Murphy were speaking at the Atlantic Council’s EU-US Future Forum during a session moderated by Fran Burwell, a distinguished fellow at the Council’s Europe Center, on how to defend democracy in turbulent times. 

Below are some of the key takeaways from the conversation.

What an alliance of democracies can achieve

  • US President Joe Biden has proposed a summit for democracy this year in part to counter the influence of China’s autocratic model. More international cooperation is essential, Jourová said, given that “there is plenty of work [to do] on both sides of the Atlantic to convince the people that democracy can deliver a reasonably good life.”
  • To Murphy, that is an argument for the ambitious plans that Biden and Democrats in Congress are pursuing to pump some six trillion dollars into the economy, paid for in part by higher taxes on the wealthy. What’s needed is a “conversation about how to lift our citizenry up together, as a mechanism to defend the ability of democracy to deliver real economic mobility,” Murphy said.
  • Murphy added that the EU and United States should also aim to “embolden democratic movements and reform communities in countries where the space for political dissent is narrow,” in the interest of promoting both economic opportunity and good governance.

Careful digital regulation

  • Jourová, who helped craft Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation, said more “proportionate” regulation of the online space is critical to protecting democracies from the meddling of Russia and China in particular. The European Commission has proposed a pair of new laws, the Digital Services Act and the Digital Marketing Act, to increase transparency and fight disinformation.
  • Jourová, who herself was recently barred from entering Russia in retaliation for EU sanctions against Russian officials, added: “We are considering introducing sanctions against the foreign producers of disinformation.
  • But Jourová, who grew up behind the Iron Curtain in Czechoslovakia, also noted that she’s particularly wary of online censorship. To that end, she wants the EU to support quality journalism “by means of different funding programs” and through legislation.
  • Murphy doesn’t see the need for a heavy government role in regulating social media beyond mandating more disclosure of who’s paying for online messages. “Many of the decisions are going to have to be made by the companies themselves,” Murphy said. “They’re going to have to decide that they want to be part of the solution.” But he criticized Facebook’s recent decision to temporarily halt all political ads as an over-the-top solution that could choke off voices and funding to candidates who aren’t personally wealthy or politically connected. 

The legacy of the Capitol attack

  • Former US President Donald Trump’s popularity as someone who wanted “to set the existing system on fire” should be a reminder of democracy’s shortcomings, Murphy said. Trump supporters believe “the elites have corrupted American government and they want something fundamentally different,” said Murphy, who was evacuated from the Senate chamber during the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. “If we don’t respond by significantly changing the balance of power, then we will be perpetually under threat with respect to very unstable behaviors like we saw on the 6th.”
  • Jourová described January 6 as a “lesson” for Europe. “We really need to keep the society stable,” she said. And “I don’t know any better system than a democratic system where people are heard.”

Watch the event

Daniel Malloy is the deputy managing editor at the Atlantic Council.

Further reading

The post The urgent task before the US and EU: To craft democracy that ‘delivers’ appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Nooruddin in The Hindu: Pulling India’s democracy back from the brink https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/irfan-in-the-hindu-pulling-indias-democracy-back-from-the-brink/ Fri, 19 Mar 2021 19:45:45 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=367339 The post Nooruddin in The Hindu: Pulling India’s democracy back from the brink appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Nooruddin in The Hindu: Pulling India’s democracy back from the brink appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Manning quoted in The Straits Times: RCEP signing a wake-up call for the US https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/manning-quoted-in-the-straits-times-rcep-signing-a-wake-up-call-for-the-us/ Mon, 23 Nov 2020 10:00:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=387501 On November 23, 2020, Robert Manning was quoted several times in The Straits Times.

The post Manning quoted in The Straits Times: RCEP signing a wake-up call for the US appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
original source

On November 23, 2020, Robert Manning was quoted several times in The Straits Times.

A lot of people in the US feel the benefits of its global role have not lived up to the costs. And so, as the country essentially has an over-militarised role in Asia and it’s not delivering benefits, trade is not generating jobs in America.

The post Manning quoted in The Straits Times: RCEP signing a wake-up call for the US appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Varshney joins Tata Literature Live to discuss Big Bosses: The future of democracy in the age of strongmen https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/dr-varshney-joins-tata-literature-live-to-discuss-big-bosses-the-future-of-democracy-in-the-age-of-strongmen/ Thu, 19 Nov 2020 22:09:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=325350 The post Varshney joins Tata Literature Live to discuss Big Bosses: The future of democracy in the age of strongmen appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Varshney joins Tata Literature Live to discuss Big Bosses: The future of democracy in the age of strongmen appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ukraine will never reform until oligarchs lose power https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-will-never-reform-until-oligarchs-lose-power/ Tue, 10 Nov 2020 01:57:12 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=318869 A counter-revolution is currently underway in Ukraine that highlights the difficulties of achieving genuine change in a society which is still dominated by a small group of extremely wealthy and influential oligarchs.

The post Ukraine will never reform until oligarchs lose power appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
A winter of discontent is looming in Ukraine. After six years of imperfect progress following the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, the political climate in the country has changed dramatically. In recent months, the country has departed from the path of reforms and embraced many of the worst practices of the toxic past. The situation is now threatening to descend into the kind of corrupt chaos that marked the first twenty-three years of Ukraine’s independent existence.

As one of the reformers who entered government in the tumultuous period following the historic events of early 2014, I recognize that we have now reached an ominous crossroads in Ukraine’s nation-building journey. We may not have entirely lost the war yet, but we have clearly lost a major battle.

Over the course of the past six years, thousands of young Ukrainians interupted their careers for the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to transform their country. Some took up public positions in the immediate aftermath of the Revolution of Dignity. Others did so during the later governments of Volodymyr Groysman and Oleksiy Honcharuk. Unfortunately, this period of idealism and optimism is now over.

In their place, officials who share a completely different set of values have returned to power. Most advocates of reform and supporters of liberal, pro-Western views have been forced out of the public sector altogether. Some are now being targeted illegally by the security services.

The wave of enthusiasm which saw so many talented and ambitious young Ukrainians embrace public service in recent years is unlikely to be repeated. While there is no shortage of patriotic sentiment within the private sector, everything has been done to discourage the country’s top talent from joining the government.

The list of deterrents includes deliberately uncompetitive salaries, bogus criminal cases, and the near-certainty of relentless attacks from Ukraine’s oligarch-controlled mainstream media. Understandably, few see this as an enticing prospect.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Perhaps the most tragic aspect of the current situation is the fact that a little over one year ago, President Zelenskyy had a unique chance to fundamentally change the country. His unprecedented victory in Ukraine’s April 2019 presidential election, together with his Servant of the People party’s equally impressive triumph in the parliamentary election three months later, provided an unrivalled opportunity to push through a program of bold and quite possibly painful reforms.

Instead, Ukraine has lurched in entirely the opposite direction. A president who ran on a vague but broadly reformist platform has now undone most of the modest progress that came before him. In the space of the past eight months, Ukraine has regressed eight years.

How has this dramatic reversal of Ukraine’s national trajectory been achieved? As is so often the case in the history of independent Ukraine, the decisive role has been played by the country’s oligarchs. Their near-complete control of the Ukrainian media has made it possible to marginalize and discredit democratic forces. Their pervasive influence throughout the civil service, law enforcement, business, and especially the judiciary has allowed them to sabotage, block, stifle, and ultimately reverse reform after reform.

The results of this oligarch-led counter-revolution are plain to see. With Ukraine’s continued Euro-Atlantic integration no longer a foregone conclusion, the country’s pro-Russian lobby is once again gaining in confidence and raising its voice. Meanwhile, Western support for Ukraine is gradually becoming less forceful as formerly dependable allies begin to question the direction the country is taking under President Zelenskyy.

These doubts over Ukraine’s future trajectory are shared by domestic audiences. In recent weeks, millions of Ukrainians have looked on with a mixture of bewilderment and anger as the Constitutional Court has casually cancelled some of the most significant reforms of the past six years.

With Zelenskyy’s blustering response to the escalating crisis apparently becoming bogged down in parliament, there are fears that the Constititional Court will now continue in the same vein. Many expect the court to reverse even more of the post-2014 legislation that had fleetingly brought Ukraine closer to the dream of a European future.

The changes that have taken place in Ukraine during the first eighteen months of the Zelenskyy presidency have little in common with the ideals that the president himself claimed to represent while on the campaign trail. Crucially, they also directly contradict the will of the Ukrainian people, who have demonstrated time and again that they wish to see the country pursue a radical reform agenda.

This disconnect between promises and policies is a recipe for instability and unrest. However, a return to mass protests holds little prospect of achieving a satisfactory outcome unless the underlying problems facing Ukraine are finally addressed.

It is now painfully clear that efforts to transform Ukraine since 2014 have failed to the alter the foundations of the state or usher in a genuinely new era. Instead, as long as we continue to play by the rules of the oligarchic system, Ukraine will remain doomed to go round in circles.

Ukraine’s periodic post-Soviet popular uprisings have achieved some important gains such as the right to free and fair elections and an end to blanket government censorship. Unfortunately, this progress has failed to tackle the root causes of the country’s chronic resistance to reform.

Recent developments leave little doubt that Ukraine’s fate is still ultimately in the hands of an all-powerful oligarchic class which is actively opposed to the rule of law and more than ready to make terms with the Kremlin. Until the national discussion focuses specifically on ways to solve this problem, Ukraine’s future will remain hostage to the interests of the oligarchs.

Serhiy Verlanov is the former Head of Ukraine’s State Tax Service.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Ukraine will never reform until oligarchs lose power appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Kremlin memory wars and the search for a unifying Ukrainian national identity https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/kremlin-memory-wars-and-the-search-for-a-unifying-ukrainian-national-identity/ Thu, 29 Oct 2020 18:04:26 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=315056 Ukraine's post-Soviet quest for an inclusive national identity capable of uniting the country has had to contend with memory wars fueled by domestic political rivalries and renewed Russian imperial ambitions.

The post Kremlin memory wars and the search for a unifying Ukrainian national identity appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
I have always been suspicious of sweeping historical narratives that attempt to explain the complex events of the past in simple black and white terms. They remind me of the sanitized histories taught in Soviet schools, where there was no room for uncomfortable questions or critical analysis.

The breakup of the Soviet Union shattered this rigid ideological control over the past, but it created a whole new set of problems. Since 1991, the dogmas and taboos of Soviet orthodoxy have been replaced by memory wars that continue to loom large over efforts to forge coherent national identities in newly independent countries throughout the post-Soviet world.

For the past three decades, rival interpretations of Ukraine’s experience during the Soviet and Tsarist eras have repeatedly been exploited for political gain. These often purposely polarized versions of the past have served as proxies in the fight for votes and have allowed various political groups to avoid focusing on the problems of the present.

Predictably, Ukraine’s contested history also played a central role in the information offensive that accompanied Russia’s 2014 invasion. To this day, competing historical narratives remain at the heart of the undeclared but ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.

The challenge of finding a unifying national narrative is not unique to modern Ukraine. From Brexit to the Black Lives Matter movement, countries around the world are currently struggling to strike the right balance between past and present. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s unwelcome status as a laboratory of Kremlin hybrid warfare lends the country’s experience a special significance that extends far beyond the borders of the former Soviet domains.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

What role should history play as modern Ukraine seeks to forge an inclusive civic national identity that is capable of uniting rather than dividing the country? This was the topic of a recent discussion organized by the Ukrainian Institute London.

Countering fakes with facts is not enough, argued leading information warfare analyst Peter Pomerantsev, who currently serves as director of the Arena Research Initiative based at the LSE Institute of Global Affairs and Johns Hopkins University.

Pomerantsev has published a number of award-winning books since 2014 exploring the Putin regime’s use of weaponized information and the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Ukraine. He was one of the people behind a recently published report entitledFrom Memory Wars to a Common Future: Overcoming Polarisation in Ukraine.”

The study recognises the complexity of Ukrainian history and stresses that “debunking manipulations of history is of course important, but if it is the only strategy, it also risks repeating and reinforcing the agenda and framing set by the Kremlin.” In order to break out of this vicious cycle, the report advises, it is necessary “to foster a more constructive discourse around history that brings Ukrainians into a common national conversation.”

The success of any future discourse depends heavily on the ability of Ukrainians to identify common ground. Maria Montague, who served as a researcher on the Memory Wars report, explained that various themes uniting Ukrainians were evident during focus groups conducted in different parts of the country. These included the traumas and economic hardships of the 1990s, the Soviet Union’s Afghan War, and the 1986 Chornobyl disaster. Participants across Ukraine also shared negative attitudes towards corruption and a common sense of resilience.

Interestingly, attitudes towards these shared experiences were similar among Ukrainians, regardless of their geographical location. This directly challenges traditional representations of Ukraine in the international media, which tend to depict the country as hopelessly divided into a pro-Russian east and pro-European west.

Anna Chebotariova, a sociologist and coordinator of the Ukrainian Regionalism Research Platform at the University of St Gallen, believes the reality on the ground is far less straightforward. “When you go to the level of Ukrainian oblasts, the picture is much more kaleidoscopic. In all regions of Ukraine, there is a very strong local identity,” she notes.

During the recent discussion, audience member and journalist Yuri Bender shared an anecdote that underlined the dangers of attempting to simplify Ukraine’s complex and multi-layered identity politics. He recalled how he had recently spoken with a group of young men from eastern Ukraine who identified as supporters of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic and had spent their holidays in Crimea. While relaxing in a bar one evening, they had begun to cheer for Ukraine’s national football team. This upset some local ethnic Russian customers, who turned the TV off. A fight between the two groups ensued.

This episode is a reminder that national identity in Ukraine often defies easy definition along ethnic, linguistic, or ideological lines. Here we see a group of Russian-speakers who welcomed the Kremlin’s “Russian Spring” in eastern Ukraine coming to blows over issues of identity with an ostensibly like-minded group who had backed the Russian seizure of Crimea. There are two obvious conclusions: Ukraine’s regional identities are far more nuanced than many observers appreciate, and it is inadvisable to generalize about the identity politics of Ukrainian society’s “pro-Russian” contingent.

The key message from the recent discussion on Ukrainian national identity was the importance of focusing on historical themes that have the potential to unite Ukrainians.

While it is convenient to blame Russia for exploiting divisions in today’s Ukraine, the fact remains that there are profound differences within modern Ukrainian society stemming from historical experience. Ukrainians must be encouraged to address painful issues in ways that respect rather than deny or dispute these differences.

The most problematic issues relate to the Second World War in Ukraine. While attitudes towards the Nazi occupation are overwhelmingly negative, opinion is significantly more divided on the role of the Red Army, with western Ukrainians in particular inclined to dwell on the brutality of the Soviet regime. At the same time, the idealization of the WWII-era nationalist movement in western Ukraine often alienates audiences in other parts of the country.

How should Ukraine approach these hugely emotive topics?

If Ukrainian society chooses to avoid discussing WWII, the debate will continue to be dominated by the Kremlin. This will have implications for the current conflict. If Ukrainians are unable to discuss WWII without reducing the debate to the level of partisan confrontation, how can they expect to enter into a constructive dialogue over the ongoing war in the east of the country?

The Memory Wars report suggests the need for a human-centric approach to sensitive topics from the past. Research has found that nuanced personal experiences can help facilitate meaningful discussion, with people who are otherwise reluctant to recognize the validity of competing narratives becoming more prepared to engage in complex debate.

This is vital. As a researcher, I have learned much about Ukrainian WWII nationalism from people whose views I do not share, but who are able to hold a discussion in which there is space for both speaking and listening. I learned about the Volyn massacre from someone whose family had suffered during these WWII-era events. Rather than chastising Ukrainians, she was interested in fostering debate.

At present, I cannot yet imagine listening to a separatist or a Russian soldier who had fought in eastern Ukraine. The wounds of the conflict are still too raw. But I would like to think that learning to address our complex past can also equip us to accept the painful present.

Ironically, Russian attempts to divide Ukrainians along historical lines appear to have backfired. Over the past six years, Ukrainians from all backgrounds have come together like never before to defend the country in a war that was supposedly rooted in their irreconcilable differences.

This offers hope for the future, but the national identity debate is still far from finished. Until Ukrainians can foster a constructive dialogue between those who differ over the country’s troubled past, Ukraine will remain hostage to memory wars that benefit nobody but the Kremlin.

Dr Olesya Khromeychuk is the director of the Ukrainian Institute London and a visiting research fellow in the Department of History at King’s College London.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Kremlin memory wars and the search for a unifying Ukrainian national identity appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The case for sanctioning Ukraine’s anti-Western MPs https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-case-for-sanctioning-ukraines-anti-western-mps/ Tue, 06 Oct 2020 00:25:58 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=305073 Many of Ukraine's most prominent anti-Western figures also have considerable business interests in the West. Anti-corruption activists accuse them of hypocrisy and say sanctions are justified.

The post The case for sanctioning Ukraine’s anti-Western MPs appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
In early September 2020, the United States imposed sanctions against Ukrainian MP Andriy Derkach, who was identified as “a Russian agent for more than a decade who coordinates his activities closely with Russian intelligence agencies.” 

Unfortunately, Derkach is far from the only Russian agent currently serving as a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

There are dozens of MPs in today’s Ukrainian parliament who are actively spreading anti-Western propaganda and promoting Russian interests. They attack the independent state institutions that serve as pillars of Ukraine’s cooperation with the European Union and International Monetary Fund, while also working to discredit civil society activists and pro-reform Ukrainian politicians. Some of these MPs are Russian agents similar to Derkach. Others represent Ukrainian oligarchs whose interests match those of the Kremlin. 

The increasingly vocal anti-Western agenda in today’s Ukraine relies heavily on social media troll farms and national TV channels controlled by Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskiy and Vladimir Putin’s closest Ukrainian ally Viktor Medvedchuk, who was sanctioned by the US back in 2014. 

These platforms have been used to promote a consistent series of messages designed to undermine Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. Reformers are routinely branded as servants of George Soros, or “Sorosiata”. Ukraine is declared to be under “external governance”, with the US accused of curating everything from the Ukrainian political arena and civil society to the country’s media. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are repeatedly informed that their country has been enslaved by the IMF and Ukrainian land will soon be sold off.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Ukraine is a democracy and the political forces promoting these messages have every right to voice their opinions. However, there is a remarkable degree of hypocrisy behind much of this aggressively anti-Western rhetoric.

Most of the pro-Kremlin politicians who are currently leading the assault on Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration also benefit greatly from the advantages offered by interaction with the Western world. They control companies in the European Union, frequently spend their vacations in the West, keep their savings in Western currencies, and often choose to educate their children in places like the UK or Switzerland. In other words, pro-Kremlin Ukrainian MPs who personally enjoy the perks of Western integration are simultaneously killing the dreams of less privileged Ukrainians who want to see European standards implemented inside Ukraine itself.

The stakes could hardly be higher. Ukraine’s continued Euro-Atlantic trajectory is now at risk, along with the limited progress made since 2014, such as the introduction of visa-free EU travel for Ukrainian citizens.

My colleagues and I at Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Action Centre cannot help but feel that this is a grave injustice. We are therefore calling on Western nations to consider imposing visa bans and other restrictions on Kremlin agents and other anti-Western forces in the Ukrainian parliament.

As part of this initiative, we are compiling a comprehensive data bank covering anti-Western Ukrainian parliamentary decisions and propaganda spread by MPs who also benefit from their personal and professional ties to the West. The end goal is for these members of parliament to face the ramifications of their own anti-Western activities.

There are a number of international legal and policy tools available which could be used to restrict access to the West for Kremlin agents in the Ukrainian parliament.

All of these MPs qualify as politically exposed persons. According to international anti-money laundering standards, this makes them high-risk clients for financial institutions, lawyers, and real estate agents. In line with this status, Western financial institutions are obliged to verify the source of wealth if they, their family members, or companies under their control happen to be clients of banks in the EU, UK, Switzerland, or the US.

The publicly available online asset declarations of most suspected Kremlin agents and oligarch representatives in the Ukrainian parliament make it clear that they typically have considerable unexplained wealth. Moreover, many of these MPs fail to declare the Western companies they ultimately control.

It is also worth noting that Western financial institutions are obliged to treat the family members of Ukrainian MPs in the same manner as politically exposed persons when conducting full enhanced due diligence. With this in mind, we are calling for Ukraine’s partners in the West to explore the implementation of existing anti-money laundering regulations.

Personal visa bans and sanctions are more overtly political tools which Ukraine’s Western partners could also use in addition to anti-money laundering regulations. For example, objections from a single EU member state would be sufficient to block a Ukrainian MP from entering the European Union if they were judged to be actively undermining Ukraine’s relationship with the EU.

This is not a matter of EU interference in Ukraine’s internal affairs. On the contrary, the anti-Western activities of Ukrainian MPs should be treated as a security issue for the entire European Union. This is particularly relevant for EU member states in Central Europe, who might otherwise find themselves faced with the alarming prospect of sharing a future border with a Kremlin-friendly government in Kyiv.

Our immediate goal is to prepare well-documented and fact-based analysis detailing the anti-Western activities of Ukrainian MPs. It will then be up to Ukraine’s Western partners to consider whether it is appropriate to introduce consequences for Ukrainian politicians who seek to deny their compatriots the Euro-Atlantic advantages that they themselves currently enjoy.

Daria Kaleniuk is the Executive Director of Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Action Centre.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post The case for sanctioning Ukraine’s anti-Western MPs appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ashford in the New York Times: Biden wants to return to a ‘normal’ foreign policy. That’s the problem. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/ashford-in-the-new-york-times-biden-wants-to-return-to-a-normal-foreign-policy-thats-the-problem/ Tue, 25 Aug 2020 21:18:15 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=301760 Emma Ashford writes about way forward for US leadership in the world. Even under a Biden administration, the US can not approach foreign policy as it once did. More about our expert

The post Ashford in the New York Times: Biden wants to return to a ‘normal’ foreign policy. That’s the problem. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
original source

Emma Ashford writes about way forward for US leadership in the world. Even under a Biden administration, the US can not approach foreign policy as it once did.

More about our expert

The post Ashford in the New York Times: Biden wants to return to a ‘normal’ foreign policy. That’s the problem. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
German politics heats up https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/german-politics-heads-up/ Wed, 19 Aug 2020 19:00:33 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=304542 For the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler joins AICGS’ Jeff Rathke and Eric Langenbacher for a new episode of the Zeitgeist, to talk about German political dynamics, the Social Democratic Party, and Merkel's ending tenure.

The post German politics heats up appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
German political dynamics have made an early and perhaps unexpected change this summer, coming out of the “Sommerloch,” with two new announcements from the Social Democratic Party. First, the SPD indicated that it would look for and be willing to participate in a left-wing coalition after the 2021 election (with the Greens and the Left Party)—a change from its many years in a Grand Coalition. And second, the party selected its chancellor candidate for the 2021 election: Olaf Scholz, currently the Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Finance. Among the most centrist in SPD leadership, Scholz sought but failed to win the party chairmanship last year. Interestingly, at the same time as the SPD is shifting to the left in terms of its desired coalition, it has also picked an ultra-centrist politician as its candidate.

For the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler joins AICGS’ Jeff Rathke and Eric Langenbacher for another episode of the Zeitgeist, a podcast focused on Germany, the United States, and the transatlantic relationship.

The post German politics heats up appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Chhibber in the Economic Times: The virus has seriously exposed the limits of populism. But will the pandemic push it against the wall? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/chhibber-in-the-economic-times-the-virus-has-seriously-exposed-the-limits-of-populism-but-will-the-pandemic-push-it-against-the-wall/ Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:49:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=286745 The post Chhibber in the Economic Times: The virus has seriously exposed the limits of populism. But will the pandemic push it against the wall? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Chhibber in the Economic Times: The virus has seriously exposed the limits of populism. But will the pandemic push it against the wall? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Manning in The National Interest: Coronavirus Meets Donald Trump’s Wonderland: What the Facemask Wars Reveal https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/manning-in-the-national-interest-coronavirus-meets-donald-trumps-wonderland-what-the-facemask-wars-reveal/ Mon, 20 Jul 2020 15:18:21 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=280838 The post Manning in The National Interest: Coronavirus Meets Donald Trump’s Wonderland: What the Facemask Wars Reveal appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Original Source

The post Manning in The National Interest: Coronavirus Meets Donald Trump’s Wonderland: What the Facemask Wars Reveal appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Toppling Lenin: The lessons of Ukraine’s memory wars https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/toppling-lenin-the-lessons-of-ukraines-memory-wars/ Wed, 15 Jul 2020 20:52:49 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=278819 The Black Lives Matter movement has sparked a flurry of monument removals across the US and elsewhere. Independent Ukraine's long history of memory wars offers a timely case study in the politics of the past.

The post Toppling Lenin: The lessons of Ukraine’s memory wars appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The Black Lives Matter movement has led to a wave of monument removals across Europe and North America in recent weeks as people reflect on the appropriateness of the historic figures enjoying pride of place in their towns and cities. This reckoning with the past has encompassed everything from memorials honoring Confederate generals to statues of English slave traders and European monarchs. Some have been toppled by mobs, while others have been quietly removed. For supporters, this trend represents belated recognition of grave historical injustices. Critics, meanwhile, see it as an attack on heritage and identity. The ensuing debate has energized audiences on both sides of the Atlantic and threatens to become a feature of this year’s US presidential election campaign.

The intensity of these memory wars has taken many by surprise, but the competing arguments they involve are all too familiar when viewed from Ukraine. Ever since their country first gained independence in 1991, Ukrainians have struggled with a national identity crisis rooted in rival interpretations of the country’s turbulent past. Advocates of a clean break from the Soviet era have embraced a liberation narrative that depicts Ukraine as a post-colonial country looking to shed the vestiges of Russian domination. Opponents of this approach have rejected attempts to portray Ukraine as a victim and instead sought to maintain traditionally close ties with Russia. This has resulted in increasing political polarization that has often expressed itself in the removal or erection of contentious monuments.

Ukraine’s memory wars have rumbled on throughout the past three decades and been marked by periodic escalations. Since the early 1990s, streets have been gradually renamed, Soviet symbols have been removed from public places, and countless monuments have been dismantled. This was initially most evident in western Ukraine, before gathering momentum in central Ukraine and the east of the country during the 2000s. The 2004 Orange Revolution was a particularly important landmark in the evolution of Ukraine’s post-Soviet identity, leading to reevaluations of the country’s past and greater awareness of Soviet crimes against humanity. Pro-Kremlin forces fought back by rallying around the memory of the USSR’s WWII experience and the Red Army’s lead role in the defeat of Nazi Germany.

The biggest turning point for independent Ukraine’s evolving national identity came in early 2014, when the country’s Euromaidan Revolution reached a bloody climax and was rapidly followed by the Russian invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Much like the Orange Revolution a decade earlier, Ukraine’s Euromaidan protest movement was driven by a desire to embrace democratic European values while rejecting the authoritarianism associated with both the Soviet past and the contemporary Russia of Vladimir Putin.

When the protests first erupted in Kyiv, thousands of Soviet monuments remained in place across Ukraine. The most prominent Lenin statue in the Ukrainian capital was the first to be toppled. It came down in December 2013, setting the tone for the months ahead. As events escalated in early 2014 and it became increasingly obvious that Moscow sought to undermine Ukrainian independence, the removal of Soviet statues took on a defiant character and merged with the wave of resistance sweeping the nation.

The Ukrainian government then attempted to formalize this process, introducing a series of Decommunization Laws in spring 2015 that outlawed most Soviet monuments and mandated name changes for streets, villages, towns and cities honoring Soviet figures. When the dust finally settled in 2017, thousands of Lenin monuments had been dismantled, while changes to place names had transformed the map of Ukraine.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Ukraine’s decommunization drive did not bring the country’s memory wars to an end. Some felt the process did not go far enough and continue to push for further changes. Others objected to the removal of familiar local landmarks or accused the authorities of attempting to rewrite history. Meanwhile, the appearance of replacement statues and place names caused an entirely new round of confrontations.

While public disagreements continue, there are also strong indications that many Ukrainians are tired of endless disputes over the country’s past. TV comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyy was careful to avoid Ukraine’s divisive memory politics during his 2019 presidential election campaign. Instead, he played down the importance of historical controversies and appealed for national unity. This proved hugely popular and helped him secure a landslide victory over incumbent Petro Poroshenko.

Since taking office in May 2019, President Zelenskyy has continued to distance himself from contentious historical themes. During his annual New Year address to the nation, Zelenskyy directly questioned the importance of the country’s recent enthusiasm for toppling monuments and renaming streets. “What difference does it make?” he asked. This convenient stance allows Zelenskyy to avoid unpopular or polarizing positions, but it also risks abandoning the national identity debate to populist politicians and extreme elements.

With its epic memory wars showing no signs of waning, Ukraine serves as both a fascinating case study and an important cautionary tale for other countries that are currently wrestling with their own histories and looking to reevaluate the past. The Atlantic Council invited a number of Ukraine observers to reflect on Ukraine’s recent decommunization efforts and asked them to consider what lessons could be learned from the country’s extensive monument-toppling experience.

Olesya Khromeychuk, Teaching Fellow, Department of History, King’s College London: Injustice is invisible. Whether because of the color of one’s skin, one’s gender, or social background, it is experienced daily by all who lack the good fortune to be born into privilege, but it mostly goes unseen. What is visible is the celebration of those who were instrumental in the perpetuation of this injustice. When the match is lit in a powder keg, as was the case with the beating of protesters by riot police in Kyiv in 2013, or the killing of George Floyd by the police in Minneapolis in 2020, people look for an object that can embody that invisible but omnipresent injustice. That’s when monuments take center stage.

When, in 2013, Kyiv’s most famous Lenin fell, starting an avalanche of Soviet monument removals all over Ukraine, it was very much in the spirit of rebellion against abuse of power and curtailing of freedoms. Lenin was not only the symbol of decades of Soviet rule, but also of the ongoing interference of the Kremlin, corruption, and injustice. For some time, the plinth where Lenin had stood was occupied by a golden toilet, an apt metaphor for Ukraine’s obscene inequality. In reaction to the spontaneous toppling of Lenin monuments, the Ukrainian state ordered a top-down “decommunization” of the country. This was an attempt by the authorities to take charge not only of national memory but also of the history that was unfolding before its eyes.

Decommunization was criticized for conducting only superficial consultations with local communities on the removal of monuments and the changing of place names, and for using Soviet-style, centralized methods to remove traces of the Soviet past. Nevertheless, the job was done: most of the monuments to Soviet leaders are gone, apart from those that remain in Crimea, the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine, and the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone.

Was formal decommunization in Ukraine the acknowledgment of injustice that the protesters had sought when they toppled the first Lenin? To some degree. But cleansing the country of the symbols of past abuses of power can hardly keep at bay the wrath of the public towards current political mishandling, especially when governments change but injustice remains. If there’s one thing those in power in Ukraine, and elsewhere in the world, can learn from the recent Ukrainian experience, it is not to wait for public anger to reach the level when monuments get toppled.

Vladislav Davidzon, European Correspondent, Tablet magazine: Decommunization in Ukraine was in many ways a long overdue process that could not have been avoided. It was also in many instances mismanaged in a polarizing and haphazard fashion which only served to undermine important relationships with the country’s neighbors and allies. Ukraine’s diplomatic relations with Romania, Hungary, Poland and Israel all suffered to one extent or another because of inflexibility in presenting strongly held memory policies. Indeed, the Hungarian case was bad enough to cause long-term damage to Ukraine’s core national interests such as the cause of NATO integration.

Armed mobs taking down statues by force, without the benefit of any sort of legal process or fair procedure, is not just unfair; it also leads to unpredictable side-effects and fallout that can ripple through society. The polarizing political climate of monument removal in Ukraine after 2014 was at least partially responsible for the the backlash towards Westernizing and modernizing impulses that emerged among a portion of Ukrainian citizens, particularly in the south and east of the country where nostalgia for the Soviet past has traditionally been stronger. It also played into the hands of propagandists who did not have Kyiv’s best interests at heart, while at the same time strengthening the Kremlin’s revisionist agenda, which revolves around the glorification of WWII and the rehabilitation of at least certain aspects of the Soviet era.

Ukraine’s experience is a reminder of how moving too quickly and attacking cultural points of reference that an older generation still holds dear can be destabilizing enough to cause serious recoil. Historical issues which are not settled in a democratic and controlled manner can explode with uncontrollable effect. Conversely, if they are repressed for the social or political greater good, they can also lead to the parallel threat of festering quietly and weakening society from within. Anyone who witnessed the turbulence of the decommunization process in Ukraine during recent years can only urge caution and delicacy.

Alya Shandra, Editor, Euromaidan Press: The push to reassess the legacy of historical figures that we are currently seeing around the world is understandable. Ukraine witnessed much the same processes after the country’s 2014 Euromaidan Revolution, when many figures from the Soviet pantheon were toppled, including a huge number of Lenin statues that had survived the Soviet collapse. These communist-era statues served as visual markers of the country’s totalitarian past at a time when this past was being weaponized by Russia to resurrect its former empire. Their removal was emblematic of Ukraine’s choice to pursue a future as part of the Western world.

Unlike the toppling of statues currently taking place in other countries, the removal of Ukraine’s Lenin monuments was largely mandated by law as part of the decommunization measures adopted after the Euromaidan Revolution. At the time, there was criticism that the process was conducted via “Soviet methods”, meaning that it was done too rapidly and with little public discussion. For those caught up in the revolutionary moment, it felt like the right thing to do. However, in hindsight, a more open and detailed public debate could have been very beneficial for Ukraine. For example, the push to remove monuments could have been used to inform modern Ukrainian society about Soviet atrocities. If this had been done, then perhaps fewer than one-third of Ukrainians would be nostalgic for the USSR, as one recent poll suggested. We might also have fewer social divisions based on the politics of memory.

Ukraine’s decommunization experience also serves as a reminder of a basic rule at the heart of memory politics – the removal of monuments creates a vacuum that begs to be filled. Who should occupy the empty pedestal? This is a discussion any society engaged in toppling outdated heroes must be ready to have.

Peter Zalmayev, Director, Eurasia Democracy initiative: Instead of consolidating Ukraine’s post-Soviet society, the country’s hasty decommunization process has only exacerbated its myriad tensions. It was perhaps naive to expect a different outcome, given that Ukraine remains deeply divided by conflicting interpretations of the past.

Any nation’s historical memory necessarily features a multiplicity of narratives and includes figures who are revered as heroes by some and denounced as villains by others. No figure is more polarizing in Ukraine than nationalist icon Stepan Bandera. While Lenin monuments have been toppled by the hundred since 2014, statues of Bandera have gone up and streets have been renamed in his honor, including in Kyiv. Whatever one’s personal view of Bandera’s historical legacy, it is undeniable that his glorification, coupled with the wholesale destruction of totems of the Soviet past, has made Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the country’s east and south particularly susceptible to Moscow’s propaganda and wary of Ukraine’s post-Maidan trajectory. “Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater!”, the saying goes.

As Americans yearn to right historic wrongs and topple politically incorrect monuments, they must understand that the more rushed and chaotic the process, the less chance there is of any permanent healing and reconciliation. As Ukraine’s experience demonstrates, the US risks undermining national cohesion whilst in the grip of the current Jacobin zeal.

Peter Dickinson is the Editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert Blog.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Toppling Lenin: The lessons of Ukraine’s memory wars appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ukraine’s showbiz president shuns mainstream media https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-showbiz-president-shuns-mainstream-media/ Sun, 24 May 2020 19:01:01 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=257812 Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the Ukrainian presidency with a campaign that positioned him as an everyman alternative to the country's discredited political elite, but a lack of media engagement now risks undermining his democratic credentials.

The post Ukraine’s showbiz president shuns mainstream media appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Kyiv’s press pack braved a light spring drizzle on May 20 to gather in the gardens of the Ukrainian president’s official residence for a long-awaited event: a press conference with President Zelenskyy himself. The three-hour Q&A event at Mariyinskiy Palace was held to mark the first anniversary of the Zelenskyy presidency. Notably, it was only Zelenskyy’s second formal press conference in the twelve months since his inauguration in May 2019.

The occasion itself yielded few major surprises. At one point, Zelenskyy appeared to backtrack on his campaign commitment to serve just one term as president and suggested he would be willing to seek reelection in 2024. He also offered dark hints of coming legal troubles for his predecessor Petro Poroshenko. However, the real story of the press conference was that it was taking place at all.

One of the most striking features of Zelenskyy’s first year in power has been his minimal engagement with the mainstream media. This is perhaps doubly surprising given Zelenskyy’s own showbiz background and his efforts to cultivate the image of an everyman alternative to Ukraine’s deeply entrenched (and deeply discredited) political elite. The former TV comedian’s natural charisma and ease in front of the cameras had appeared tailor-made for today’s 24-hour news cycle. Instead, he has emerged over the past twelve months as a somewhat distant figure.

Zelenskyy’s lack of communication with journalists actually predates his presidency and was a prominent feature of the 2019 election campaign. As the presidential race unfolded, his reliance on social media posts, YouTube videos, and broadcasts of a hit TV show in which he starred as the fictional president of Ukraine earned Zelenskyy the label of virtual candidate.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

This inaccessibility has not gone unnoticed. On the contrary, media industry representatives have repeatedly criticized the Ukrainian president for allegedly avoiding awkward questions and accused him of shying away from all but the tamest of grillings. Complaints of this nature first surfaced over a year ago during the final week of the 2019 presidential election campaign, when a group of around 20 Ukrainian media outlets penned a joint appeal to Zelenskyy calling on him to finally speak with the press. “Our readers, viewers and listeners are asking questions we cannot answer since we have not once talked with you directly,” they complained.

Little has changed since Zelenskyy took office. Following his inauguration in May 2019, it took Ukraine’s new president over four months to hold his first press conference. He then somewhat overcompensated by staging a record-breaking press marathon in October 2019 that began at 10am and continued until beyond midnight, with around 300 journalists asking the Ukrainian president a total of over 500 questions. This spectacular feat earned Zelenskyy plenty of headlines, but the novelty factor of the marathon itself also served to underline the absence of more routine interaction with the media.

Zelenskyy’s record with the international media has been slightly more encouraging. He has given a number of feature interviews to the likes of Time magazine and the UK’s Guardian newspaper that have garnered considerable international attention. Indeed, his Time interview saw him appear on the cover of the magazine, becoming the first Ukrainian leader to do so.

On the eve of his hotly-anticipated first face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in December 2019, Zelenskyy held a joint interview with a number of international media outlets including France’s Le Monde, Germany’s Der Spiegel, and Poland’s Gazeta Wyborcza. He has also turned his hand to op-eds, with a contribution recently appearing in the New York Times to mark Zelenskyy’s first anniversary as president.

This international engagement has not been mirrored on the domestic front, where presidential interviews have been few and far between. Low points over the past year have included a bizarre faux interview to mark the first hundred days of his presidency which featured Zelenskyy being gently questioned by Stanislav Boklan, one of his co-stars from the Servant of the People TV show that served as a springboard for the Ukrainian president’s political career.

With little apparent interest in traditional media engagement, Zelenskyy has instead continued to rely primarily on direct communication with the public through his hugely popular social media platforms (the Ukrainian president has 9.5 million followers on Instagram and over 1.1 million followers on Facebook). However, there are signs that this strategy may soon require some revision. A recently published study by Ukrainian media monitoring NGO the Institute of Mass Information indicates that Zelenskyy’s social media posts are rapidly losing their appeal, with video viewing figures on Facebook and Instagram now a fraction of the multi-million audiences witnessed during the 2019 election campaign and the early days of the Zelenskyy presidency.

In a sense, Zelenskyy’s preference for direct social media messaging is a sign of the times. It echoes US leader Donald Trump’s own Twitter presidency and reflects the rising importance of digital democracy elsewhere in the Western world. Indeed, Ukraine’s president can claim to be an innovator in his own right who has taken the trend to new heights. Given the unprecedented success of their social media campaigning strategies in 2019, it is only natural that Zelenskyy and his team should wish to continue in the same vein. Nevertheless, in an emerging democracy like Ukraine where strict state censorship remains a relatively recent memory, a president who shuns the mainstream media is sure to set alarm bells ringing.

A free press plays a vital role in any democratic society, and Ukraine’s flawed but pluralistic media landscape is currently among the freest in the former Soviet Union. The post-Soviet Ukrainian media had once been tightly controlled by the government. This changed with Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution, which proved a watershed moment in the development of the country’s fledgling democracy.

Since 2004, direct government influence over the Ukrainian media has declined dramatically and been supplanted by the private interests of oligarchs who own virtually all of Ukraine’s leading TV channels, radio stations, publications, and online platforms. This has resulted in a highly subjective and partisan media environment which nevertheless provides platforms for most points of view.

By choosing to remain aloof from the Ukrainian media circus, Zelenskyy clearly hopes to maintain control over the messages reaching domestic audiences. This approach also prevents the polished public image of the president from becoming tarnished. Such precautions may be wise. On the few occasions when he has faced challenging questions, Zelenskyy’s often short-tempered responses have suggested a man uncomfortable with criticism and temperamentally ill-equipped to deal with hostile journalists. This makes the president’s lack of media interaction understandable from a strategic perspective.

Nevertheless, Zelenskyy’s reluctance to engage with the mainstream media is a disservice to the Ukrainian electorate that sits uneasily with Ukraine’s democratic ambitions. In a healthy democracy, it is the role of the media to enable dialogue between the government and public while holding the authorities to account. During the first year of his presidency, Zelenskyy has made this task significantly more difficult.

Tetiana Gaiduk is Head of Communications at the Kyiv-based TRUMAN Agency.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Ukraine’s showbiz president shuns mainstream media appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ukraine’s novice president may yet live up to the hype https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-novice-president-may-yet-live-up-to-the-hype/ Thu, 21 May 2020 15:01:36 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=257024 Ukraine's President Zelenskyy has struggled to match the sky high expectations that accompanied his historic 2019 election win, but he has done enough during his first year to suggest he may yet live up to the hype, says Tetiana Popova.

The post Ukraine’s novice president may yet live up to the hype appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
This week sees the one-year anniversary of President Zelenskyy’s inauguration. As Ukrainians reflect on the first year of the Zelenskyy presidency, the dominant theme for many seems to be one of anti-climax, with numerous articles underlining Zelenskyy’s failure to live up to the sky-high expectations that accompanied his landslide election victory in April 2019. This sense of underachievement is understandable, but it is also unfair. Indeed, given the remarkable set of circumstances he has faced, ranging from the ongoing war with Russia and the Trump impeachment scandal to an unprecedented global pandemic, Zelenskyy’s performance during what was the first year of his political career is perhaps deserving of greater recognition.

I worked in the Ukrainian government of President Poroshenko from 2014 until 2016, and was then invited to serve on President Zelenskyy’s Free Speech Council in autumn 2019. This gives me some personal insights into the two administrations. I have come to believe that criticism of Zelenskyy’s record does not fully reflect the day-to-day realities of his administration and fails to acknowledge the significant progress being made.

In a sense, Zelenskyy has only himself to blame for the negative verdicts of his first year in office. The former comedian’s entire election campaign focused on his credentials as an outsider running against the Ukrainian establishment, but he has since had to balance this rhetoric against the practicalities of operating within the existing political system. This has led to compromises and fueled an inevitable degree of disillusionment among his supporters. Nevertheless, the past twelve months have produced a series of steps that are broadly in line with the change in political culture promised by Zelenskyy in spring 2019.

For the first time in Ukrainian history, a law establishing mechanisms for the impeachment of the president has been passed, while the immunity previously enjoyed by members of parliament has been abolished. In a move targeting the widely mocked practice of so-called “piano-voting” in parliament, criminal liability has been introduced for MPs found guilty of voting on behalf of absent colleagues. Meanwhile, criminal responsibility for illegal enrichment has been reinstated following its cancellation during the Poroshenko presidency.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Even his detractors have recognized that the election of Zelenskyy was a triumph for Ukraine’s democratic credentials. He has since moved to strengthen the country’s fledgling democracy with the adoption of a new Election Code that meets many of the objectives long championed by the country’s vocal and influential pro-democracy activist community.

There has been progress in the notoriously corrupt sector of state-owned enterprises. Following years of unfulfilled promises, the unbundling process at Ukraine’s energy giant Naftogaz has been rapidly achieved over the past year in cooperation with the EU. Zelenskyy has also initiated a radical shake-up of the government approach towards privatization, with over a thousand state-owned enterprises and assets penciled in for auction and a new investor-friendly approach to sales adopted that incorporates best international practices and unprecedented levels of transparency.

In autumn 2019, MPs approved a mechanism for concessions that paves the way for a whole new era of public-private partnerships in Ukraine and the upgrade of the country’s infrastructure. The first concession tenders for the ports of Olvia and Kherson took place in late 2019. These tenders attracted significant attention from the international investment community and have already been successfully completed.

One of the most eye-catching reforms during Zelenskyy’s first year was the repeal of a moratorium on the sale of agricultural land that had been in place since the turn of the millennium. The adoption of a new Land Law in March 2020 was a landmark event for Ukraine, which until then had been one of only six countries globally without an agricultural land market. The end of the moratorium was accompanied by measures to create a more transparent land register. Although many in Ukraine remain opposed to farmland market reform, it is undoubtedly a major policy decision that previous reformist governments had flirted with but ultimately shied away from.

President Zelenskyy’s 2019 election campaign was a masterclass in digital marketing that will be studied for years to come. Since taking office, he has followed up on this success by promoting the concept of “a country in a smartphone”, with more and more government services becoming available via digital platforms. This was reflected in the creation of the new Ministry of Digital Transformation in August 2019. Earlier this year, Ukraine launched the “Diya” application, which allows users to obtain digital versions of documents such as driver’s licenses and passports. This digitization drive is a powerful blow against corruption with the potential to dramatically reduce graft within state agencies.

The above examples offer an indication of the reformist agenda President Zelenskyy has pursued since taking office. His record is far from unblemished. Indeed, it is easy to understand the mounting concerns over Zelenskyy’s personnel choices, but this should not obscure the advances that are also taking place. While the removal of many high-profile reformers from senior government positions in March and April 2020 has caused widespread alarm, it is also important to recognize bold pro-reform moves such as the recent decision to appoint former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili to head up Ukraine’s National Reform Council.

During a press conference to mark his first anniversary in office on May 20, President Zelenskyy conceded that a single five-year term would not be sufficient to fulfill his promises to the Ukrainian electorate. Few would argue with this assessment. Nor is there any consensus on the durability of the changes implemented so far.

There are certainly grounds for skepticism. With political pressure mounting against NABU, it remains to be seen whether this anti-corruption agency will be allowed to operate effectively and independently. Huge questions also remain over whether Saakashvili will have enough political support to make an impact as head of an enhanced but nonetheless advisory National Reform Council. The jury is still out on these and a wide range of other issues.

Any assessment of Zelenskyy’s first year as Ukrainian head of state must take into account the fact that in political terms, he remains an absolute beginner. The former comedian and showbiz producer is currently on what is probably one of the steepest learning curves in the history of world politics. He may not have lived up to the impossibly high billing of his meteoric rise to the presidency, but Zelenskyy’s initial twelve months in office provided sufficient indications to believe that he may yet come to play a transformational role that is closer to the hype surrounding him.

Tetiana Popova is Managing Partner at Arena Media Expert and a member of President Zelenskyy’s Free Speech Council. She formerly served as Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Information Policy (2014-16).

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Ukraine’s novice president may yet live up to the hype appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Nooruddin as a panelist at The Asian Leaders Council at UVA: Citizenship Amendment Bill Webinar https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/nooruddin-as-a-panelist-at-the-asian-leaders-council-at-uva-citizenship-amendment-bill-webinar/ Mon, 11 May 2020 20:00:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=253365 The post Nooruddin as a panelist at The Asian Leaders Council at UVA: Citizenship Amendment Bill Webinar appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

The post Nooruddin as a panelist at The Asian Leaders Council at UVA: Citizenship Amendment Bill Webinar appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Zelenskyy fails to deliver on promise of a new beginning https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/zelenskyy-fails-to-deliver-on-promise-of-a-new-beginning/ Sun, 03 May 2020 17:47:31 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=250882 Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the Ukrainian presidency in spring 2019 as a political outsider promising an end to decades of corrupt government. One year on, Ukrainians are still waiting for evidence of this fight against corruption.

The post Zelenskyy fails to deliver on promise of a new beginning appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Nothing explained the popular enthusiasm that carried Volodymyr Zelenskyy to a landslide presidential victory last year quite like his promises to end corruption and achieve the “de-oligarchization” of Ukrainian society. This was the main reason voters were willing to take a chance on a novice candidate with no political experience in the middle of an ongoing national crisis sparked by Russia’s 2014 military intervention in the country. One year on from Zelenskyy’s election win, Ukrainians are still waiting for action that matches the soaring ambition of his anti-corruption campaign rhetoric and his enticing promise of a new beginning.

It’s not that Zelenskyy himself is seen as personally corrupt. On the contrary, close observers credit him with a disinterest in self-enrichment that is rare in Ukrainian politics. The problem appears to be with those around him: the friends and allies that supported and sponsored his rise to national prominence, first as a television celebrity and then as an insurgent presidential candidate. Does Zelenskyy have the strength of will to deliver on his pledges to the Ukrainian people, even at the cost of breaking those bonds of personal loyalty?

This question is asked most often, though not exclusively, in connection with Ihor Kolomoiskiy, the controversial oligarch and media owner whose television network helped establish Zelenskyy as a star and whose resources fuelled his bid for political office. Under Zelenskyy’s predecessor, Kolomoiskiy had become a virtual exile from Ukraine, dividing his time between Switzerland and Israel in a bid to stay clear of corruption probes at home and elsewhere. Zelenskyy’s election victory allowed him to return as Ukraine’s most powerful oligarch and political kingmaker. Many saw Kolomoiskiy’s hand in the dismissal two months ago of Ukrainian Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk and his government after the two men reportedly clashed over key appointments to a state company.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

International attention is understandably focused on the fate of Privatbank, the country’s largest deposit holder, formerly owned by Kolomoiskiy but nationalised in 2016 when it emerged that alleged internal fraud had ripped a USD 5.5 billion hole in the bank’s balance sheet. Hailed at the time as a big step towards strengthening Ukraine’s financial sector, the nationalisation is a decision that Kolomoiskiy has been working to reverse using all the influence at his disposal. Ukraine’s Supreme Court was due to hear a case in late April brought by two of Kolomoiskiy’s business associates aimed at declaring Privatbank’s nationalisation effectively unlawful. The court postponed the hearing at the last minute citing unspecified “interference” in its work.

The IMF has been commendably consistent in its message that continued financial support depends on Ukraine’s willingness to stand firm and take steps to recover losses from the former owners of failed banks, including Privatbank. The result is a new banking law, slated for adoption by the Ukrainian parliament this month, which would block Kolomoiskiy and others from regaining control of their former assets.

Many see this banking legislation as evidence of a break between Zelenskyy and Kolomoiskiy. Indeed, the bill itself is widely referred to as the “Anti-Kolomoiskiy Law” and enjoys Zelenskyy’s public backing. Yet for each step forward there always appears to be at least one step back. Recently deposed Prosecutor General Ruslan Ryaboshapka has accused the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) of blocking investigations into Privatbank’s former management and claims he was removed precisely for his willingness to take action against those considered politically “untouchable”. His assessment seems to be shared by leading anti-corruption campaigners in Ukraine.

The struggle over Privatbank isn’t the only example of concerns about the rule of law posing a threat to the integrity of Ukraine’s financial sector. Another recent court case, barely noticed outside Ukraine, has caused shock waves within the country’s banking community. It came last month when the Supreme Court overturned rulings by the lower courts imposing an asset auction on TMM, a construction company that had refused to settle a EUR 15 million debt with Ukrsotsbank. By ordering the return of TMM’s auctioned assets, the ruling effectively writes off the company’s debt at the expense of the lender and those who bought its assets in good faith.

This ruling has drawn allegations of interference on the part of Zelenskyy’s inner circle, with a senior member of the construction firm linked to Zelenskyy’s television production company, Studio Kvartal-95. The production company’s former head, Ivan Bakanov, a friend of the president’s since childhood, is now in charge of the SBU. Two months after Bakanov took over, the SBU unexpectedly reopened an investigation, previously closed by the Prosecutor General’s Office, looking into Ukrsotsbank’s handling of the asset auction.

Banking sources in Kyiv say this is more than a routine struggle over assets. The ruling creates a huge headache for the Ukrainian financial sector as a whole because there is now uncertainty about whether collateral loan contracts are still legally enforceable, at least as far as debtors connected to the ruling elite are concerned. This is likely to have a chilling effect on the willingness of banks to lend money generally, hardly something that is consistent with Ukraine’s need to boost entrepreneurship and private sector growth.

The record of President Zelenskyy’s first year in office provides little basis for thinking that he will turn out to be the transformational leader Ukrainians voted for. If he wasn’t able to deliver on his most radical promises while his mandate was fresh and public support still high, it needs to be asked whether he will find the courage to do so as his options begin to narrow towards the back end of the electoral cycle. There is still plenty of time to change course, but only if Zelenskyy is prepared to make the tough decision to break with friends and allies that appear to be holding him back.

David Clark was Special Adviser on Europe at the UK Foreign Office 1997-2001 and now works as an independent analyst specializing in foreign policy and European affairs.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post Zelenskyy fails to deliver on promise of a new beginning appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Should the European Left take on the populists at their own game? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/julian-mueller-kaler-on-the-rise-of-populism-and-the-decline-of-the-left/ Fri, 10 Apr 2020 13:00:00 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=252965 For Medium World, Alistair Somerville and Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler go head to head on whether European center-left and left wing parties should take on the right wing populists at their own game.

The post Should the European Left take on the populists at their own game? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The novel coronavirus not only exposes the inability of failing governments, it also debunks the false promises of the neoliberal system at large. Whether it is the breakdown of chronically under-financed health care systems, the inability of many to work from home, or skyrocketing unemployment rates, the crisis brings to light the flaws of unbridled capitalism — many of which have paved the way for the rise of populism. Almost inevitably, the public now suffers the consequences of unrestrained privatizations, unchecked deregulations, and the merciless cuts to public spending. But crises always create opportunities, too. The Left should use this moment, seize on the public’s awareness, and make the case for the restoration of social democracy. It might be their last chance before sinking into oblivion.

For Medium World, Alistair Somerville and Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler go head to head on whether European center-left and left wing parties should take on the right wing populists at their own game.

The post Should the European Left take on the populists at their own game? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Robert Manning in Global Times about the necessity of US – China cooperation on Coronavirus https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/robert-manning-in-global-times-about-the-necessity-of-us-china-cooperation-on-coronavirus/ Sun, 05 Apr 2020 14:08:19 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=240225 The post Robert Manning in Global Times about the necessity of US – China cooperation on Coronavirus appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
original source

The post Robert Manning in Global Times about the necessity of US – China cooperation on Coronavirus appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Coronavirus is already changing the world https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/coronavirus-is-already-changing-the-world/ Sun, 08 Mar 2020 03:13:31 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=228812 The first returns are in regarding how the coronavirus episode might change the world. No doubt the virus is a curse, but it also could be a blessing if politicians and voters heed its lessons.
As Winston Churchill said on the cusp of World War II, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

The post Coronavirus is already changing the world appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

Coronavirus will change the world. The “how” is growing clearer with each day of its global spread.

Unpredictable events produce unforeseen outcomes. Yet sift carefully through the deluge of reporting, and one can discern the first outlines of how this entrepreneurial pathogen will leave its mark.

Here’s just a short list of what we know already as the coronavirus has reached some 94 countries, with more than 100,000 cases and more that 3,400 deaths.

What we’re learning – in real-time, Darwinian fashion – is that proactive countries, societies and individuals are performing far better than reactive ones. Governments that engage in truth-telling are heading off dangers faster than those that obfuscate or delay. (More on that below.)

This week, we were also reminded of the benefits of international collaboration and trust – and the dangers where it doesn’t exist – both in addressing health emergencies and their global financial implications.

For her part, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, pointing to “more dire scenarios,” made available $50 billion to help countries deal with the virus, including $10 billion at zero interest for the poorest of nations.

Get the Inflection Points newsletter

Subscribe to Frederick Kempe’s weekly Inflection Points column, which focuses on the global challenges facing the United States and how to best address them.



  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Here’s a short (by no means complete) list of what should, or could be, other implications:

The United States and Europe should take this moment as a wake-up call to pay far more attention to addressing non-military national security threats, including their excessive dependence on China for crucial supply chains that reach from pharmaceuticals to “rare earth” materials used in almost all our high-tech gear. Today, about 80% of pharmaceuticals sold in the US are produced in China. China is also the largest and sometimes only global supplier for the active ingredient of some vital medications.

Chinese leaders will have to rapidly adjust their economy to the new reality in which global manufacturers will diversify supply chains, wherever they can, at the cost of Chinese workers. In a country where economic growth figures buy authoritarian leaders their credibility, this year’s slowdown and job losses could have far-reaching consequences.

Chinese leaders are already addressing these challenges through new economic stimulus programs, which are a good thing, but the temptation at the same time has been for more authoritarian controls and nationalist rallying, which is less good, particularly if you live in Hong Kong, Taiwan, or the region.

Iran, one of the four countries hit hardest by coronavirus, with more than 4,700 cases and 124 deaths, is lurching between measures to stop its spread among an increasingly distrustful population and steps it has taken to accelerate its uranium enrichment toward a nuclear weapon.

Iran could choose to rapidly reduce its costly, malign regional behavior, which neither its citizens nor its neighbors can afford. It could pull back from recent steps to increase its uranium enrichment in the direction of weapons grade materials. The alternative, which appears to be the course Iranian leaders have chosen, is an ultimately reckless and perhaps suicidal path of internal repression, ensuring hardline electoral outcomes and external aggression.

Coronavirus has made that path even less sustainable. Watch this space.

This column has tried to keep a healthy distance from U.S. domestic politics. And pathogens are nonpartisan. However, it’s hard not to reach conclusions, looking around the globe, that also reflect on the U.S. coronavirus response.

Countries that delay and dither in their initial responses (China, Italy) pay a heavy up-front price, and those that respond rapidly and responsibly can contain infection rates rapidly (Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong).

Italy and Hong Kong present a powerful comparison. Though Hong Kong shares a border with mainland China, it only this week passed the 100-case mark with two deaths, while Italy has had more than 4,600 cases and almost 200 deaths

Lay aside Italy’s higher population. The more decisive difference was Hong Kong’s proactivity. It closed its schools when Hong Kong had fewer than forty cases and will keep them closed until mid-April, at the earliest. Italy only this week announced a limited closure. Hong Kong also closed most public venues – restaurants, bars, sporting events and theaters. Italy’s response has been spottier, and thus its numbers have grown even as it exported the virus.

If you live in the United States, it’s hard to be reassured by the country’s relatively low number of cases and deaths – 300 and 19. That’s because of the serious lack of testing kit availability until now. Less than 1,600 people have been tested across the country.

A final lesson in this incomplete list is that international leaders must better address our fragile global economy’s ability to absorb shocks like coronavirus, and that should start by addressing our record corporate and sovereign debt levels. Global debt is nearing $244 trillion, the highest level on record.

With most Western central banks near zero interest rates, monetary tools are insufficient to counteract coronavirus – as the Fed demonstrated through the ineffectiveness of its half point cut. Global debt levels restrain the far better alternative of fiscal stimulus.

Lesson here: if kind fate should allow us to slip by this coronavirus without a global pandemic, global recession, or financial meltdown, addressing this debt overhang should be a matter of global urgency.

Perhaps the most important lesson of the past weeks of coronavirus is that the recent rise of authoritarianism globally and the rise of populism and nationalism among Western-style democracies provide a poor recipe for sound, trusted, experienced management of an unfolding global health emergency.

No doubt the coronavirus scare has contributed to the Biden surge of the past week, as American voters in the Democratic party scanned the available choices for steadiness and experience – and other moderate candidates rallied around his flag.    

So, the first returns are in regarding how the coronavirus episode might change the world. No doubt the virus is a curse, but it also could be a blessing if politicians and voters heed its lessons.

As Winston Churchill said on the cusp of World War II, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

*          *          *

This article originally appeared on CNBC.com

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe.

MUST-READS FROM A WORLD IN TRANSITION

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the government at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia March 4, 2020. Sputnik/Aleksey Nikolskyi/Kremlin via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.

This week’s top reads again focus mostly on the various aspects of coronavirus, which continues to capture global public attention despite a news week that put Senator Joe Biden in Democratic driver’s seat and had Turkish and Russian leaders in Moscow, deliberating the future of Syria’s Idlib.

The pieces include the FT’s look at the danger of debt crisis, two Iranian brothers reflecting on what has gone wrong with their country’s health system, a public health professional’s comparison of coronavirus with the Spanish flue of 1918 and the lesson of effective leadership, and the work of the Atlantic Council’s own Digital Forensic Research Lab in tracking an “infodemic.”

Also don’t miss item #5 and Steve Sestanovich’s smart look in Foreign Affairs at the “deep state” that really makes Russia tick – and thus what Putin’s eventual successor must manage.  Our own Anders Aslund reflects on the curiously enduring nature of “Russia’s kleptocratic autocracy.”

#1. THE VIRUS AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT

The seeds of the next debt crisis
John Plender / FINANCIAL TIMES

Read every word of John Plender’s “Big Read” on record debt levels in the Financial Times if you want a richer understanding of the most vulnerable part of the coronavirus-hit economy.

The numbers: the ratio of global debt to gross domestic product hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of 2019 and total debt reached some $253 trillion. “The implication,” writes Plender. “If the virus continues to spread is that any fragilities in the financial system have the potential to trigger a new debt crisis.” Read More →

#2. IRAN AND THE VIRUS

How Iran Completely and Utterly Botched its Response to the Coronavirus
Kamiar Alaei and Arash Alaei / THE NEW YORK TIMES

Two Iranian doctors, brothers who were arrested in 2008 in the country, reflect in the New York Times on how a country that has one of the best health care systems in the Middle East has become the poster child for how to get everything wrong in the face of coronavirus.

Nowhere have high officials been as badly affected. Among the more than 3,500 cases are 23 members of parliament, a deputy health minister and several government officials. Among the 107-plus deaths is a senior adviser to the supreme leader.

“Lives could have been saved and the scale of the contagion contained if the Islamic Republic had not made health policy subservient to its politics,” the brothers write. Read More →

#3. PANDEMIC LEADERSHIP LESSONS

What We Can Learn From the 20th Century’s Deadliest Pandemic
Jonathan D. Quick / THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Much separates our times from the days of the Spanish flu of 1918, which took 675,000 lives in the United States, compared by 53,000 in all World War I combat.

On the good side: We have better antibiotics, hospitals, health systems and communication. More problematic: the world’s population is four times larger with more than half in urban areas. Globalization and high-speed travel provide much more opportunity for “community spread.”

But what both periods have in common is how effective leadership can save or cost lives, writes Jonathan D. Quick, author and public health professional. He draws a powerful comparison between Philadelphia of 1918, which muckraker Lincoln Steffens called “the worse governed city in America,” and St. Louis, whose quick, proactive reactions kept its death rates at half those of Philadelphia. It didn’t help that President Woodrow Wilson was so focused on winning World War I that he wouldn’t head pandemic warnings from his Army, Navy, or personal physician. Read More →

#4. WELCOME TO THE INFODEMIC

The Coronavirus and how Political Spin has Worsened Epidemics
Atlantic Council DFR Lab / THE SOURCE

This week, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab in its newsletter featured a round-up of what we’re seeing across the information environment about coronavirus, in our effort to provide a trusted source on what’s right and wrong.

“We’re not just fighting an epidemic; we’re fighting an infodemic,” said Tedros Adhonom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, at the Munich Security Conference last month.

“This is an immediate stress test in the collective effort including government, media and private industry to build resilience against active disinformation and passive misinformation,” our DFRL lab wrote. “Human lives hang in the balance.” Read More →

#5. PUTIN’S SUCCESSOR

The Day After Putin
Stephen Sestanovich / FOREIGN AFFAIRS

We Need a Small War
Anders Aslund / BERLIN POLICY JOURNAL

Steve Sestanovich’s must-read on Russia in Foreign Affairs suggests that experts have been asking the wrong questions about the country and Putin – “on his personality, his wealth, his approval ratings.”

Instead, he suggests studying “his true legacy.” In Sestanovich’s view, that is the re-empowering of the state bureaucracy and, in particular, the national security establishment, “the hydra-headed complex of military intelligence, and law enforcement ministries.”

He convincingly argues these institutions “may well determine not only who becomes the next president of Russia but what Russian politics will look like after Putin.” Read More →

Also don’t miss the Atlantic Council’s Anders Aslund in Berlin Policy Journal. Anders is one of the keenest minds on Russia’s economic structure as “an authoritarian kleptocracy.” He analyzes why this “classic decline power” resists reform, ignores growth, neglects its population – and survives. Read More →

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

ATLANTIC COUNCIL TOP READS

The post Coronavirus is already changing the world appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Shahid co-chairing at the Rethinking Civil Society Project, University of York, discussing the CAA and NRC in India https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/shahid-co-chairing-at-the-rethinking-civil-society-project-university-of-new-york-discussing-the-caa-and-nrc-in-india/ Fri, 28 Feb 2020 09:45:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=223508 The post Shahid co-chairing at the Rethinking Civil Society Project, University of York, discussing the CAA and NRC in India appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
original source

The post Shahid co-chairing at the Rethinking Civil Society Project, University of York, discussing the CAA and NRC in India appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Hamburg as barometer: What’s happening in German politics? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/hamburg-as-barometer-whats-happening-in-german-politics/ Thu, 27 Feb 2020 14:00:53 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=257928 For the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler joins AICGS’ Jeff Rathke and Eric Langenbacher for a new episode of the Zeitgeist, a podcast focused on Germany, the United States, and the transatlantic relationship.

The post Hamburg as barometer: What’s happening in German politics? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Recent regional elections have served as a barometer for the political parties on the national level and offer insights ahead of the planned 2021 federal election. High voter turnout in Hamburg suggests that citizens are engaged and are paying attention to the issues. Reason enough to discuss how the Volksparteien performed in Hamburg and whether the parties can adapt to the new post-modern social cleavages, following cultural and identity issues; if the Alternative for Germany’s lack of appeal suggests an east-west or rural-urban divide; and how growing support for the Greens could play out at the national level.

For the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler joins AICGS’ Jeff Rathke and Eric Langenbacher for a new episode of the Zeitgeist, a podcast focused on Germany, the United States, and the transatlantic relationship.

The post Hamburg as barometer: What’s happening in German politics? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Global investors underestimate downside economic risks https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/global-investors-underestimate-downside-economic-risks/ Sat, 22 Feb 2020 20:43:08 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=222198 Global investors are being overly complacent about downside economic risks, aggravated by but not limited to the growing impact of coronavirus. They are underestimating the forces that are changing the very nature of the world economy – a growing degree of “deglobalization” in the face of US-Chinese decoupling. At the same time, they are overestimating the power of monetary and fiscal stimulus to keep the global economic party going.

The post Global investors underestimate downside economic risks appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Global investors are being overly complacent about downside economic risks, aggravated by but not limited to the growing impact of coronavirus.

They are underestimating the forces that are changing the very nature of the world economy – a growing degree of “deglobalization” in the face of U.S.-Chinese decoupling.  At the same time, they are overestimating the power of monetary and fiscal stimulus to keep the global economic party going.

When G-20 finance ministers meet this weekend in Riyadh, they’ll do so at a time when all of the world’s ten major economies are slowing – and several confront recession. Next week, Beijing is likely to announce a delay in the meeting of its National People’s Congress due to the coronavirus outbreak.

This week, Apple raised fears of more global corporate troubles to come with a virus-caused revenue warning. The full ripple effects of the virus, and of the economic impact of humans scared to be with other humans, will show up in first quarter results, in particular in tourism, travel and on all Chinese and global companies that depend on Chinese supply chains and markets.

Despite all that, investor complacency persists in no small part due to a fundamental misunderstanding of how rapidly the world has changed, economically and politically. We are only in the opening pages of this new era of major power competition and technological change, and there’s no model to “price in” its impact.

Get the Inflection Points newsletter

Subscribe to Frederick Kempe’s weekly Inflection Points column, which focuses on the global challenges facing the United States and how to best address them.



  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Within democracies, the public’s faith has been shaken in capitalism and globalization to produce results that deliver greater prosperity. Most recently, that has driven everything from the recent Irish election victory of Sinn Fein, to the UK’s departure from the European Union, to the erosion of the German political center.

Most dramatic is the growing possibility that U.S. presidential elections this year could produce a showdown between two populists of different stripes but similar decibels, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Both are septuagenarian insurgents who appeal to hard-core, unconventional constituencies, and that’s prompted global concern that the new U.S. normal may be abnormal.

All of that is unfolding against a backdrop of a major power test that at its heart is a systemic struggle between democratic and authoritarian capitalist models. Though traditional security analysts continue to worry about how U.S.-Chinese, U.S.-Russian or U.S.-Iranian tensions could unravel into armed conflict, the more likely outcome is a resource-sapping, continual competition that stops short of kinetics but involves information warfare, cyber assaults, and economic clashes ranging from trade wars to targeted sanctions.

But let’s get back to investors and their complacency, which is as easy to explain as it is increasingly hard to justify.

Every time the global economy approached the brink in the decade since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, some intervening force pulled us back. The latest came last year when it looked as though the global economy might slow to below 2 percent GDP growth, generally considered a way to measure the onset of a global recession.

Central banks stepped up. As the International Monetary Fund has pointed out, 49 central banks cut interest rates 71 times last year. The result was a 0.5 percent global GDP boost, according to the IMF. Monetary policy saved the day.

Investors understand that coronavirus could be a major 2020 shock, but they are wagering again that something will prevent this from being an economic disaster. They realize the U.S. Fed and other central banks may have fewer monetary tools to deploy, so they are counting on increased fiscal stimulus from governments.

For example, Chinese lenders on Thursday cut their one-year loan prime rate, which is used across the financial system, by 0.1 percentage point to 4.05 percent. The result was a rallying of Chinese stocks that day of 2.2 percent of the benchmark CSI 300 index.

That followed the Chinese central bank’s cut to its medium-term lending rate this week, as well as dozens of other measures Beijing has introduced in recent days to support businesses hit by the epidemic. The Financial Times reports that China’s central bank thus far has made 300 billion RmB available to large lenders and local banks in hard-hit areas, particularly Hubei province.

Even so, the S&P Global Ratings forecast that China’s 2020 growth could fall to 4.4 percent from its 6 percent level last year, if the coronavirus hit continues through April. Most predictions of that sort probably err on the optimistic side, and it may be wishful thinking that China’s economy will make up most of what is being lost once coronavirus recedes.

At the same time, the eurozone economy barely grew in the fourth quarter of 2019, up only 0.1 percent from the previous quarter, the slowest rate since 2013. Germany had zero growth. Real GDP in the eurozone was up just 0.9 percent in 2019, the slowest rate since 2013. (With the UK now leaving the EU, its leaders failed to agree on their budget on Friday due to insoluble differences.)

Governments across the world see these storm clouds, and a Bloomberg survey of economic forecasts shows that budgets are loosening in more than half of the world’s 20 biggest economies, providing some of the fiscal stimulus that central bankers have been seeking from their government counterparts.

Markets are wagering that the combination of fiscal and monetary measures will again prevent the worst.

However, what if they’re wrong?

Other than the United States, major central banks are tapped out, some of them experimenting with negative interest rates. Some experts argue that our low interest rate environment allows greater borrowing for fiscal stimulus.

That’s risky business.

Global debt is nearing $244 trillion, the highest level on record, and that’s not a good record to be breaking. Public debt is the highest in advanced economies since WWII. In a recent Atlantic Council report, Global Risks 2035 Update, author Mathew Burrows explores a worst-case scenario he calls “Descent into Chaos.” It starts with growing indebtedness hitting China first and then spreading to the Western world, triggering a worldwide economic meltdown.

Burrows isn’t in the business of predicting the timing of global downturns. Yet it would be unwise to take one’s eye off this ballooning debt at this moment of uncertainty.

Investors are counting on the playbook of the last decade to hold out for a little longer.

That’s a risky bet in this year of coronavirus, slowing growth, growing debt, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. We’re near the end of a bull run that’s in year ten of a seven-year cycle.

This article originally appeared on CNBC.com

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe.

MUST-READS FROM A WORLD IN TRANSITION

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

This week’s top reads include Nouriel Roubini’s look in Project Syndicate at the “blissful denial” of financial markets and Ashley J. Tellis’ rich look at U.S.-Indian relations in Foreign Affairs. New York Times reporters look at how the job of national security advisor is changing under Robert O’Brien, who came to the Atlantic Council recently to lay out his plans.

In a departure from form, Inflection Points includes some U.S. domestic politics, given Peggy Noonan’s rich look at the Bloomberg “catastrophe” in this week’s Democratic debate – and its meaning.

Don’t miss this week’s must-reads, the FT’s look at two unfolding disasters, one in Syria’s Idlib and the other on the Venezuelan border with Colombia.

#1. FINANCIAL MARKETS “BLISSFUL DENIAL”

The White Swans of 2020
Nouriel Roubini / PROJECT SYNDICATE

Famed economist Nouriel Roubini warns in Project Syndicate of financial markets blissful denial “of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election.”

In particular, he points to potential disturbances involving China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as “white swans,” rather than black swans, as it should be easier to see them coming. “Any of them could trigger severe economic, financial, political and geopolitical disturbances unlike anything since the 2008 crisis.” Read More →

#2. TRUMP IN INDIA

The Surprising Success of the U.S.-Indian Partnership
Ashley J. Tellis / FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has planned an “epic spectacle” to greet President Trump when he lands Monday in the western city of Ahmedabad for his first presidential visit to India.

Ashley Tellis delivers a brilliant scene-setter in Foreign Affairs, tracking why, three years into Trump’s “American First” presidency, “the strategic partnership with India that successive U.S. administrations have cultivated as a silent bulwark against China hasn’t just survived – it has flourished.” Read More →

#3. TRUMP AND NATIONAL SECURITY

Under O’Brien, N.S.C. Carries Out Trump’s Policy, but Doesn’t Develop It
Michael Crowley and David E. Sanger / NEW YORK TIMES

Trump’s national security advisor touts new “streamlined” National Security Council
David A. Wemer / THE ATLANTICIST

Few matters are more important than tracking the capability of President Trump’s national security team as he wrestles down a lengthening list of global challenges.

When the Atlantic Council recently hosted Robert C. O’Brien, the President’s new national security advisor, he impressed with his calm bearing, demonstrating the mettle that had made him one of America’s most effective hostage negotiators.

He laid out his plan to return the National Security Council staff to the size and effectiveness of the model introduced by General Brent Scowcroft, Atlantic Council chairman emeritus and two-time national security advisor. Read More →

New York Times reporters Michael Crowley and David E. Sanger, however, argue that by opening NSC staff meetings with printouts of Trump tweets, O’Brien is implicitly showing the job has morphed from one of advising presidents, to one “justifying, enacting or explaining” Mr. Trump’s policy.

This comes in a week when President Trump has removed his acting director of national intelligence, an act that prompted Admiral William H. McRaven (former commander of U.S. Special Operations) to pen a warning in the Washington Post of the perils “if good men …can’t speak the truth.” Read More →

#4. CAN BLOOMBERG RECOVER?

The Best Democratic Debate in Years
Peggy Noonan / WALL STREET JOURNAL

As a rule, Inflection Points doesn’t stray into U.S. domestic politics, except when it directly relates to international defining moments.

Yet as the U.S. election this year will be an Inflection Point of its own, this week’s top reads include Peggy Noonan’s rich look at this week’s stunning Democratic debate and what she called not a bad night for Bloomberg but a “catastrophe.”

 “Bad news/long-shot news: it was the worst performance in recent debate history – but if he can turn it around it will be the biggest comeback in modern primary history.” Read More →

#5. LIVES ABANDONED AND FORGOTTEN

‘It looks like judgment day’: inside Syria’s final battle
Chloe Cornish in Beirut and Asmaa al-Omar in Istanbul / FINANCIAL TIMES

Venezuela: refugee crisis tests Colombia’s stability
Michael Stott in Maicao and Gideon Long in Bogotá / FINANCIAL TIMES

This week’s two must-reads come from FT reporters tracking unfolding disasters in Syria and Venezuela, and the tragic refugee flows spawned by the cruelties of dictators Assad and Maduro – and by the failure of the civilized world to effectively oppose them.

“To hundreds of thousands of people who escaped other battles,” write reporters Chloe Cornish and Asmaa al-Omar, “Idlb …is now the scene of an unfolding humanitarian disaster and the dying days of Syria’s revolution” in a civil war that already has left 500,000 dead.

Michael Stott and Gideon Long report on how the shape of the Venezuelan crisis is changing, with wealthier and middle-class refugees in the first stages now being joined by poorer, older, sicker and more vulnerable Venezuelans.

“Unlike other humanitarian crises, it is a disaster caused not by war or natural disaster but by misrule on a grand scale,” they write.

PERSON OF THE WEEK

ATLANTIC COUNCIL TOP READS

The post Global investors underestimate downside economic risks appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The case for high state salaries in Europe’s poorest country https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-case-for-high-state-salaries-in-europes-poorest-country/ Wed, 19 Feb 2020 19:03:16 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=221492 As the top manager of a flagship state-owned Ukrainian company, Ukrposhta CEO Igor Smelyansky has been publicly vilified for his high salary - but he argues that competitive incomes are the only way to beat institutionalized corruption.

The post The case for high state salaries in Europe’s poorest country appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ukrposhta CEO Igor Smelyansky is the unrepentant poster boy for corporate-competitive salaries in the Ukrainian state sector, and he wants everyone to know it. In recent months, Smelyansky’s income has become the subject of a heated national debate as populist politicians fuel public outrage over the dramatically inflated pay packets of government officials and managers of state-owned enterprises in a country where average salaries remain among the lowest in Europe. There have been Facebook memes, talk show diatribes, and angry op-eds all denouncing the alleged injustice of his high salary. One particular low point was the day he discovered he’d dislodged Ukraine’s latest pop starlet as the main story on the front page of the country’s most popular tabloid newspaper. Managers of national postal services do not normally attract this kind of attention.

When we meet for breakfast in a downtown Kyiv cafe next to the central post office that serves as the nerve center of his vast postal empire, Smelyansky says the fuss is a symptom of the thinking that keeps millions of Ukrainians trapped in poverty. “I would be much richer if I accepted bribes,” he quips. This one-liner captures the essence of Smelyansky’s argument. He sees himself as a reformer on a mission to change the way the Ukrainian public sector operates, and makes no apologies for expecting to be paid the market rate. On the contrary, he believes the old practice of paying relative peanuts to top officials served as an open invitation for the kind of institutionalized corruption that has crippled the Ukrainian economy ever since the country first achieved independence in 1991. This is hard to argue with. Senior members of Ukraine’s public sector are notorious for living in multi-million dollar palaces and acquiring fleets of luxury cars while declaring absurdly low official salaries, with the illicit rich pickings on offer driving a culture where top positions are routinely sold to the highest bidder and complex networks of interdependency keep the corruption gravy train firmly on track. The only way to break this vicious circle, says Smelyansky, is to recruit a new generation of professionals and offer them salaries that can compete with the private sector.

Stay updated

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

Since taking on the role of Ukrposhta CEO in 2016, Smelyansky has grown used to the idea that his salary is public knowledge. At first glance, his basic monthly pay of around $35,000 does indeed seem startlingly high by Ukrainian standards. With bonuses, he could potentially take home twice as much. However, he is quick to point out that this is actually far less than many CEOs in Ukraine’s private sector currently receive, and significantly lower than the salaries he himself has commanded in the past. Odesa-born Smelyansky came to Ukrposhta from the US, where he was headhunted for the post while working for KPMG in New York, having earlier graduated from George Washington University Law School and received an MBA from Georgetown University. Why did he agree to swap a promising career in the upper echelons of the corporate world for the uncertainties and turbulence of the post-revolutionary Ukrainian public sector? Like many other reformers, Smelyansky was enticed by the prospect of bringing about meaningful change in Ukraine and drawing a line under decades of dysfunction. “If I can change Ukrposhta, this symbol of the lingering Soviet mentality, then anything can be changed in Ukraine.”

The task he faced upon arrival at the helm of Ukraine’s national postal service could certainly be described as Herculean. The company he took over was the country’s second-largest employer with around 70,000 staff and over 11,000 branches. It was also riddled with corruption. “The whole system was in balance. Everyone was stealing,” he says. As a self-proclaimed disruptor intent on shaking up the entire institution, Smelyansky did not expect to receive a particularly warm welcome, but he did not shy aware from confronting his detractors. He recalls the moment in the early days of his tenure when he gathered a number of Ukrposhta managers into a meeting room overlooking the company car park and asked them to point to a single-vehicle parked outside that could be bought on their official salaries. A stony silence ensued. The gesture did not win him many friends, but he had made his point.

Confronting corruption was only part of the problem. Since 2016, Smelyansky has sought to transform the corporate culture within Ukrposhta and overcome the pervading sense of inertia that is all-too-common in the Ukrainian state sector. Over the past four years, he has begun the process of bringing the vast Ukrposhta branch network into the digital age, gotten the business model back on track by demanding market rates from the state for pension delivery services, and launched innovative initiatives such as an export school to teach Ukrainian SMEs how to sell their wares on Amazon and eBay. These efforts have produced striking increases in both revenues and postal traffic. Ukrposhta reported record annual profits last year of more than UAH 600 million. When Smelyansky arrived in 2016, the postal operator was shipping 46,000 express parcels per year. By early 2020, the figure was 47,000 per day. There has also been unprecedented international recognition. At the 2019 World Post and Parcel Awards in Dublin last summer, Ukrposhta’s E-Export Program took top spot globally in the Corporate Social Responsibility and Postal E-Commerce categories.

So far, these impressive results have failed to convince Smelyansky’s critics. He is philosophical about the negativity he continues to encounter, and argues that it may require a generational shift in thinking before attitudes evolve. “You have to begin teaching people at kindergarten age that professional success is a good thing,” he says. “The guy living in a mansion and driving a luxury sedan on an official salary of $300 is not a hero. The guy running a big company successfully and earning an honest salary is who you should aspire to be. As it is, people know the bosses are stealing, but they sleep better because they don’t know how much is being stolen. At the same time, they complain that I should not have such a high salary in a poor country, but the reason they are poor is because all the managers on low salaries already stole everything.”

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert blog.

Further reading

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Follow us on social media
and support our work

The post The case for high state salaries in Europe’s poorest country appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Democrats need more than histrionics to beat Trump in November https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/democrats-need-more-than-histrionics-to-beat-trump-in-november/ Tue, 11 Feb 2020 14:00:00 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=256223 For The Hill, Dr. Mathew Burrows, Director of the Atlantic Council's Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, and Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler explain why trying to beat Trump in the race for cheap publicity is most certainly the wrong strategy for winning back the White House in November.

The post Democrats need more than histrionics to beat Trump in November appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The president’s impertinent display of self-confidence during the state of the union address continues to have only one goal: To spur outrage on the left, rally his base and keep the populist anger alive. It’s a political combination that he believes is paving his way to reelection later this year. The way such a strategy is countered by Trump’s opponents shows that many still don’t understand the power he wields. The president remains popular in large swaths of the American public, because irrespective of his personal misconduct, he has delivered on the original promise of his election — namely, heaping abuse on Washington insiders, embracing political chaos, antagonizing political opponents and caring little about norms, expertise and legalities. It’s a populist playbook that few know better than Trump. And it is particularly successful when combined with low trust in the problem-solving capacity of democratic institutions.

For The Hill, Dr. Mathew Burrows, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, and Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler explain why trying to beat Trump in the race for cheap publicity is most certainly the wrong strategy for winning back the White House in November.

The post Democrats need more than histrionics to beat Trump in November appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Shahid in The Globe Post: What Drives Ethnic Cleansing in Post-Colonial South Asia? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/shahid-in-the-globe-post-what-drives-ethnic-cleansing-in-post-colonial-south-asia/ Wed, 15 Jan 2020 15:50:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=214447 The post Shahid in The Globe Post: What Drives Ethnic Cleansing in Post-Colonial South Asia? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
original source

The post Shahid in The Globe Post: What Drives Ethnic Cleansing in Post-Colonial South Asia? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Emerging technologies and their potential social implications https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/julian-mueller-kaler-on-emerging-technologies-and-their-potential-social-implications/ Tue, 14 Jan 2020 14:00:00 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=253014 For the Leadership Excellence Institute Zeppelin, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler writes about the emergence of modern technologies and their potential social implications, should capitalism fail to reinvent itself.

The post Emerging technologies and their potential social implications appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Globalization, automation, and the transformation from a production-based to a service-based economy have already shifted the geography of growth in Western societies significantly. A process that caused public frustration and deteriorated trust in the problem solving capacity of democratic institutions. The development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) may put this process “on steroids,” threatening not only the jobs of blue-color workers, but those of lawyers, bankers, and engineers, too. Expanding job insecurity, stagnating wages, or the lack of economic opportunities will deepened populist resentment and threaten liberal democracy. Trump, Brexit, and the rise of the AfD in Germany might be merely preludes to the political upheavals that could come with advancing automation – especially if capitalism doesn’t reinvent itself.

For the Leadership Excellence Institute Zeppelin, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler writes about the emergence of modern technologies and their potential social implications, should capitalism fail to reinvent itself.

The post Emerging technologies and their potential social implications appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Boris Johnson’s next act: Saving the UK https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/boris-johnsons-next-act-saving-the-uk/ Sat, 14 Dec 2019 23:49:07 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=206269 Prime Minister Johnson – who famously craves both public attention and a place in history – won the former and a shot at the latter through a British election victory this week that was the most convincing conservative victory since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. To save the United Kingdom itself, however, he must reverse course, or at least amend direction, on much of what he has said and done to win in the first place.

The post Boris Johnson’s next act: Saving the UK appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
It is just the sort of script one might expect from Boris Johnson, one of the most enigmatically fascinating personalities of our times.

Prime Minister Johnson – who famously craves both public attention and a place in history – won the former and a shot at the latter through a British election victory this week that was the most convincing conservative victory since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. To save the United Kingdom itself, however, he must reverse course, or at least amend direction, on much of what he has said and done to win in the first place.

I opposed Brexit on economic and political grounds yet, at the same time, Johnson might have the political flexibility, the intellectual chops and the Churchillian ambition to confound his critics along the five lines of action he must simultaneously pursue to find his historic place.

  • Most importantly, he’ll have to negotiate a “no-tariffs, no-quotas” trade deal by end-2020 with a European Union that he has disparaged, knowing that it by some distance is the UK’s major trade partner.
  • Second, he will have to rapidly restore external economic confidence in a country that has been suffering disinvestment, an economic slowdown, and doubts about its continued role as a European and global financial hub.
  • Third, he should still aspire to get a trade and investment deal with an impeachment-distracted President Trump. At the same time, he should share with voters how unlikely that will be and embrace what might be faster and easier opportunities in Asia, namely negotiating his way into the 11-country Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
  • Fourth, he’ll have to abandon much of the populist rhetoric that got him elected and embrace his encouraging “One Nation” message of this week that could heal the country’s divisions – and perhaps also slow a European-wide and global populist trend.
  • Finally, he’ll need save the United Kingdom from unravelling by convincing Scotland and Northern Ireland of their future place – while heading off another Scottish independence referendum. A successful EU negotiation will help that.

Media pundits in recent months have compared and associated the rise of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump as populists who have turned their countries’ politics upside down. Yet the comparisons only go so far, given Boris’ bookish, multilingual, multicultural background, and intellectual passion.

Get the Inflection Points newsletter

Subscribe to Frederick Kempe’s weekly Inflection Points column, which focuses on the global challenges facing the United States and how to best address them.



  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

He was born in Manhattan as Alexander, then raised in Brussels until age 11, before being shipped to a British boarding school a year after his mother’s breakdown, a life richly chronicled by Tom McTague in The Atlantic last July. Somewhere along the way the quiet child became the boisterous, eccentric British Boris. He developed a comic demeanor, a disheveled mean (and mane), a rapier intellect with a taste for the classics, and an insatiable desire to be liked.

From all of this grew his self-proclaimed ambition to be “world king.”

“I often thought that the idea of being world king,” said his mother of her illness’ impact on Boris, “was a wish to make him unhurtable, invincible somehow, safe from the pains of life, the pains of your mother disappearing for eight months, the pains of your parents splitting up.” The biographer Sonia Purnell says Johnson told girlfriends that his way of coping was to make himself invulnerable “so that he would never experience such pain again.”

The Brexit referendum and— three years later— his election vote are part psychological and part political drama for Boris Johnson, the stuff of a West End musical. His Friday speech on the steps of 10 Downing Street showed how quickly he can change his tune from that of the campaign to one of governance.

Speaking to those voters who opposed him and wished to remain in the EU, he said, “I want you to know that we in this One Nation Conservative government will never ignore your good and positive feelings – of warmth and sympathy toward the other nations of Europe.”

He went further.

“As we work together with the EU as friends and sovereign equals in tackling climate change and terrorism, in building academic and scientific cooperation, redoubling our trading relationship…” he said, “I urge everyone to find closure and let the healing begin.”

That will be easier said than done as Johnson will now have to decide what kind of UK he wishes to build – one more akin to its neighbors in the EU or one more resembling a low-tax, deregulated Singapore-on-Thames.

“Brexit will formally happen next month, to much fanfare,” writes the Economist, “but the hardest arguments, about whether to forgo market access for the ability to deregulate, have not begun. Mr. Johnson will either have to face down his own Brexit ultras or hammer the economy with a minimal EU deal.”

French President Emmanuel Macron, enamored by his colleague’s intellect and linguistic skill, has called Boris Johnson “a leader with genuine strategic vision” who should be taken seriously. This week he extended an olive branch while in Brussels, telling “British friends and allies something very simple: by this general election, you confirmed the choice made more than three years ago, but you are not leaving Europe.”

On the other hand, he has warned, the best way to reach the most ambitious trade agreement with the EU would be if the UK essentialy says “we don’t want to change very much.”

So, the drama will continue. If the UK’s economy emerges as robust and healthy, other European countries might wonder about the value of staying in. If Johnson defines his country as too close to the European Union, irrespective of economic logic, his base may well ask what the past three years’ drama has achieved other than serving Johnson’s own political ambitions.

It’s time to raise the curtain on the next act.

This article originally appeared on CNBC.com.

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe.

Must-Reads From a World In Transition

#1. A BRITISH REVOLUTION?

It’s Boris Johnson’s Britain Now

Tom McTague/The Atlantic

The Atlantic’s Tom McTague provided the best profile I’d read on Boris Johnson in July, and I reproduce it here again. This week he turned around a smart, quick analysis – complete with reporting from the front – on how the Britain that emerged this week “is different from the one that came before, its old political map erased, its economic model upended, its prospects uncertain – even its unity in doubt.”

He weaves a rich narrative of “a remarkable story of political change brought about by voters and politicians – and one politician in particular… And yet, while this is a story with one central character, it is also about the deep structural and demographic currents working under the surface…” Read More →

#2. UNDERSTANDING MACRON

Emmanuel Macron’s New Strategy is Disruption

Benjamin Haddad / Foreign Policy

The Atlantic Council’s own Benjamin Haddad, after some travels through Europe, weighs in on how the continent should understand that President Macron’s sharp critiques of both the European Union and NATO are a call for change prompted by his view of the historic moment.

“The French president,” he writes, “is convinced Europeans are sleepwalking into strategic irrelevance in a world dominated by the U.S.-China rivalry, where shifting U.S. priorities will move it away from areas critical to Europe’s interests. This is a shift that started before Trump and will likely outlast him.” Read More →

#3. MURDER IN GERMANY

How Russian Agents Hunt Down Kremlin Opponents

Der Spiegel Staff

This one reads like a spy thriller: ”The Case of the Bicyclist Killer.”

Der Spiegel reporters – working with Bellingcat, The Insider and the Dossier Center – connected two murders, one in Moscow in 2013 and one in Berlin this year, likely to the same person. In both cases, the killer rode away after shooting his victim in the head and body, once captured on surveillance footage and the second time reported by witnesses.

The reporters show evidence that links the two killings to likely the same individual using a changed identity card, an individual who this summer in Berlin hit Zelimkhan Khangoshvili of Georgia. “The Chief Federal Prosecutor’s Office,” write the reporters, “is accusing the Russian government or one of its henchmen of having murdered” the Georgian in broad daylight, “a hitjob on German soil against a man who had come to the country as an asylum-seeker.” Read More →

#4. THE AFGHAN PAPERS

The Afghanistan Papers: A secret history of the War

Craig Whitlock/ The Washington Post

The Washington Post is rolling out a high-profile investigative series regarding the war in Afghanistan, based on a treasure trove of 2,000 documents. Expect this one to go to the Pulitzer panel.

The piece says that the documents reveal “that senior U.S. officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan throughout the 18-year campaign, making rose pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.”

To get a full picture, also read a Washington Post op-ed by Ryan Crocker, former US ambassador to Kabul. “…For anyone paying close attention, ”there are few surprises here,” writes Crocker, one of our finest diplomats.

He sees the glass as “half full,” based on the many improvements he witnessed in a country that lacked institutions, a body of enforceable laws, army or police when he arrived in early 2003. A country that had but 900,000 Afghan children in schools, all of them boys, had by 2012 some 8 million children, a third of them girls.

“Does that sound like a disaster?” he asks. Read More →

#5. BEETHOVEN’S INSPIRATION

This holiday season we can all learn a lesson from Beethoven

Arthur Brooks / The Washington Post

Inspired by Arthur Brooks’ column, I turned off the usual holiday tunes and cranked up my best recording of Beethoven’s Ninth, this one from Leonard Bernstein and with German chorals.

It was good to be reminded that Beethoven produced his greatest triumph, and what many believe is the best orchestral composition in history, after he had been deaf for years and passed through despair to the other side. When he conducted this piece, a member of the orchestra had to turn him so that he could see the thunderous ovation.

“As his hearing deteriorated,” Brooks explains, “he was less influenced by prevailing compositional fashions, and more by the musical structures forming inside his own head.” Nothing stood in the way of his originality. Read More →

Quote of the Week

A look back at NATO Engages London

Atlantic Council Top Reads

The post Boris Johnson’s next act: Saving the UK appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Social Democracy in search of its identity https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/julian-mueller-kaler-on-the-future-of-social-democracy/ Fri, 06 Dec 2019 14:00:00 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=252983 For the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler takes a look at Germany's SPD, Social Democracy's search for its identity, and the related global rise of populism.

The post Social Democracy in search of its identity appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Despite untamed global capitalism and growing inequality within advanced economies, the traditional left continues to be in sharp decline. Social democratic parties lost significant support in almost all Western democracies, seem unable to satisfy public calls for economic protection, and are undergoing a substantial identity crisis. The situation for Germany’s SPD is no different, as its indecision toward the Grand Coalition and the de novo quest for leadership illustrate. For the proud party, whose roots go back to the early nineteenth century, the current crisis resembles a bitter humiliation.

For the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, Atlantic Council Resident Fellow Julian Mueller-Kaler takes a look at Germany’s SPD, Social Democracy’s search for its identity, and the related global rise of populism.

The post Social Democracy in search of its identity appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The high price of impeachment https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/the-high-price-of-impeachment/ Fri, 22 Nov 2019 14:00:00 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=256211 For The Hill, Dr. Mathew Burrows, Director of the Atlantic Council's Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, and his Research Associate Julian Mueller-Kaler elaborate on the persistency of populist discourse, the establishment's failure to tackle the phenomenon successfully, and the political price of impeachment.

The post The high price of impeachment appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
With the impeachment hearings being broadcast live on television, the American public is finally becoming privy to the damning revelations about presidential misconduct and abuse of power. Testimonies from senior officials, many of whom have served the United States for decades, shine light on an administration in which the president and his henchmen care little about legalities, integrity or proper diplomatic conduct. The only problem is that such wrongdoings do not come as a surprise — neither to Trump’s opponents, nor to his supporters. Even though impeachment by the House becomes inevitable, the process is still a dangerous gambit and could backfire politically. Especially since Republicans show no sign of disloyalty and Trump’s removal from office by a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate remains unlikely. Democrats’ efforts to strip the president of his powers through constitutional means, instead of defeating him at the ballot box next year, bolsters Trump’s ability to distract attention from his unfulfilled promises, rally his populist base and reinvigorate the outsider status he relishes.

For The Hill, Dr. Mathew Burrows, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, and his Research Associate Julian Mueller-Kaler elaborate on the persistency of populist discourse, the establishment’s failure to tackle the phenomenon successfully, and the political price of impeachment.

The post The high price of impeachment appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Why trying to impeach Trump and oust Johnson may end in tears https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/why-trying-to-impeach-trump-and-oust-johnson-may-end-in-tears/ Sun, 29 Sep 2019 13:00:00 +0000 https://atlanticcouncil.org/?p=256153 For The Hill, Dr. Mathew Burrows, Director of the Atlantic Council's Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, and his Research Associate Julian Mueller-Kaler warn that using institutional maneuvers instead of defeating populists at the ballot box could prove to be a trojan horse strategy.

The post Why trying to impeach Trump and oust Johnson may end in tears appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
After years of populist humiliation suffered by mainstream politicians, the establishment seems to have found a way to strike back effectively against the reckless forces that undermine liberal democracy. But playing to the “victim” mentality is a dangerous gambit. To win the argument and strip Trump of his powers, Democrats will have to do more than pass impeachment legislation. Their strategy is a dangerous all-or-nothing approach and might well end in tears. If removing the president from his office fails, Democrats will hand Trump even more ammunition to establish his outsider narrative and inflame his populist base.

For The Hill, Dr. Mathew Burrows, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy and Risks Initiative, and his Research Associate Julian Mueller-Kaler warn that using institutional maneuvers instead of defeating populists at the ballot box could prove to be a trojan horse strategy.

The post Why trying to impeach Trump and oust Johnson may end in tears appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Steve Levine in Axios about the effect of the Supreme Court on populism https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/steve-levine-in-axios-about-the-effect-of-the-supreme-court-on-populism/ Thu, 11 Jul 2019 22:03:00 +0000 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/?p=237823 The post Steve Levine in Axios about the effect of the Supreme Court on populism appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
original source

The post Steve Levine in Axios about the effect of the Supreme Court on populism appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Russian influence in Venezuela: What should the United States do? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/event-recap/russian-influence-in-venezuela-what-should-the-united-states-do-2/ Thu, 20 Jun 2019 18:08:18 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/news/event-recaps/russian-influence-in-venezuela-what-should-the-united-states-do-2/ On June 20, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and its Eurasia Center co-hosted a public event to discuss the extent of Russian involvement in Venezuela, Moscow’s motivations and possible next moves, and how the United States should react. As a wave of international and domestic support for a democratic transition is sweeping […]

The post Russian influence in Venezuela: What should the United States do? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
On June 20, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and its Eurasia Center co-hosted a public event to discuss the extent of Russian involvement in Venezuela, Moscow’s motivations and possible next moves, and how the United States should react. As a wave of international and domestic support for a democratic transition is sweeping Venezuela, Moscow continues to support Nicolás Maduro. Displays of military force, Rosneft’s 49.9 percent collateral of Venezuela-owned CITGO refiner, and billions in loans to the Maduro regime showcase Russia’s rooted geopolitical and economic interests in Venezuela and the hemisphere.

Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) gave opening remarks emphasizing the need for immediate action by the US and the international community to the ongoing humanitarian, economic, and political crisis in Venezuela. Senator Scott stated that, “every American needs to know what is going on in Venezuela today… It is a crisis that threatens the safety and security in the region as a whole.” His keynote served as a call to action for the US to work to counteract threats to peace and democracy in the region.

Following the keynote remarks, Jason Marczak, director of the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, moderated the panel discussion on Russia’s broader strategic goals and how they play out in the context of Venezuela. Ambassador Paula J. Dobriansky, senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and former under secretary of state for global affairs, highlighted Russia’s desire to reconstitute the sphere of influence it once had as well as assert themselves as a key political actor in global affairs vis-à-vis the United States. She stated, “the driving principle of Russia’s actions is fundamentally to marginalize, if not, eradicate US power internationally.” Ambassador Dobriansky emphasized that the political investment in Venezuela on the part of Russia is greater than its economic ties.

Ambassador John Herbst, director of the Eurasia Center, added that the Russian government is concerned about their sphere of influence abroad as well as domestically, stating that “Putin established a concept that he doesn’t want to see authoritarian leaders fall to people rising in the streets.” There was consensus among the panelists about the role of domestic politics in Russia’s decision to get involved in Venezuela. “For Putin, it is all about regime survival,” said Evelyn Farkas, resident senior fellow at The German Marshall Fund of the United States and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia.

Konstantin von Eggert, a Russian journalist and columnist for Deutsche Welle, pointed to the significant decrease in public support for Putin’s expansive foreign policy. “Although, for now, it is a low-cost operation, there are limits to what Putin can do in Venezuela… the Kremlin will refrain from a direct confrontation in which it can lose a lot.” He explained the low appetite among the Russian public for what they see as distant crisis in a country most of them cannot locate on a map. It will be important to watch domestic conditions in Russia as the stalemate in Venezuela continues.

Mark D. Simakovsky, a senior fellow at the Eurasia Center and former chief of staff for Europe/NATO at the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy, discussed the evolution of relations between Venezuela and Russia. “Moscow is analyzing the limits of US power in Venezuela. I think Moscow understands that there are divisions in the [US] administration itself on how to deal with this issue,” he stated.

Francisco Monaldi, the Latin American energy policy fellow at the Center for Energy Studies and the Mexico Center and director of the Latin America Initiative at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, spoke to Russia’s growing economic and military foothold in Venezuela. Regarding the oil industry, Russia and other oil-producing countries are benefiting in the short-term from reduced production in Venezuela. However, “if there is successful transition and the oil sector recovers, Russia stands to make a profit from that” in the long-term because companies like Rosneft manage key oil and gas fields in Venezuela. Venezuela is also attempting to diversify its military relations to gain some independence from the Cubans who have long had significant influence in the country’s intelligence and military apparatus.

In the United States, there is bipartisan support to bolster democracy in Venezuela, but there is a lack of consensus on how to address the deepening crisis and Russia’s influence in the country. Farkas recommended that the US needs to put the pressure on Maduro and Putin because “if the US doesn’t have a policy, Russia will take the initiative.” Simakovsky urged the US to think critically and act with a “scalpel not an axe” when implementing sanctions or other responses to the crisis.

The post Russian influence in Venezuela: What should the United States do? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: The United States needs alliances to confront challenges https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/former-us-secretary-of-state-madeleine-albright-the-united-states-needs-alliances-to-confront-challenges/ Fri, 31 May 2019 19:30:41 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/former-us-secretary-of-state-madeleine-albright-the-united-states-needs-alliances-to-confront-challenges/ “The world is a mess,” Albright conceded. But to sort out the large problems we are facing, the way forward is to join together, she argued, not to continue to drift apart.

The post Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: The United States needs alliances to confront challenges appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright knows that her famous description of the United States as the “indispensable nation” could be misunderstood as a boast of her country’s individual power. But in the word “indispensable,” however, “none of it means it has to be alone,” she said on May 30.

Delivering the Chicago Project on Security & Threats’ 2019 Hagel Lecture at the University of Chicago, Albright argued that the challenges of the 21st century require that people work together—both within their own societies and between nations. Whether it be technological change, international terrorism, global warming, or uneven migration flows, Albright said that they all “will require partnership” among people to address. Former US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, who joined Albright on May 30, agreed, saying the United States “needs alliances. We need relationships. We can’t do it alone.”

Albright said that she wrote her recent book Fascism: A Warning because she was “concerned about some of the division in our societies across the board.” These divisions have occurred, she argued, because of globalization, which despite its benefits is “faceless” and in some ways deprives citizens of needed identities, and technological change that “has disconnected people in a strange way” by putting them into echo chambers of their own political beliefs. Both of these developments have fed into hypernationalism, which has capitalized on peoples’ desire for strong identities and weaponized those identities against specific groups. “Fascism is where you find a scapegoat,” she explained, and pointed to groups such as migrants as evidence that this scapegoating is happening again.

To begin to combat this hypernationalism, Albright pointed to the Atlantic Council’s Declaration of Principles as a natural starting point. The Principles call for countries, leaders, and citizens to reaffirm the rights of freedom, justice, peace, security, democracy, free markets, collective action, the right of assistance, and an open and healthy planet, that underpinned the rules-based international order which came about after World War 2.

These principles, Albright said, provide an opportunity to “renew our vows about what it is like to be in the civilized society and be able to work with others.”

Speaking to students at the University of Chicago, she added that “we are looking to the younger generation to really look at those declaration of principles, recognize why they came into existence after World War 2, what about them needs to be refurbished a bit, and how we use them to deal [with challenges ahead].”

Hagel argued that these principles are needed to strengthen the system of institutions and partnerships that has allowed the United States and its partners to meet the challenges of the last seventy-five years. After World War 2, Washington embarked on building this system “because we needed to build a world order that focused on the common interests of all nations and all peoples.”

This international order, although not perfect, is still needed today, he argued. “If we don’t have a system, structures, alliances, and global institutions to work on these things together, we are going to be in a lot of trouble,” he said.

Hagel specifically referenced US President Donald J. Trump’s attempts to negotiate a deal with North Korea over its nuclear program as an example where a unilateral approach shunning international partners has failed. “I don’t see how anything is going to be resolved in North Korea without Japan, certainly without China, and certainly without South Korea,” he said.

Albright agreed, saying, “there are certain problems that can only be handled multilaterally. It doesn’t matter if the United States is the only country doing something.” Rather than shunning international institutions or organizations, Washington needs to start “giving them the tools to work together and to recognize that they really are substantial.”

“The world is a mess,” Albright conceded. But to sort out the large problems we are facing, the way forward is to join together, she argued, not to continue to drift apart.

David A. Wemer is assistant director, editorial, at the Atlantic Council. Follow him on Twitter @DavidAWemer.

The post Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: The United States needs alliances to confront challenges appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Lithuania shuns populism with the election of a pro-EU president https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/lithuania-shuns-populism-with-the-election-of-a-pro-eu-president/ Wed, 29 May 2019 18:50:16 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/lithuania-shuns-populism-with-the-election-of-a-pro-eu-president/ Lithuania's presidential election has demonstrated the maturity of its electorate, who were not swayed by populism or extremism.

The post Lithuania shuns populism with the election of a pro-EU president appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
On May 26, Lithuanian voters rebuffed the populist trends sweeping Europe by electing Gitanas Nausėda, a pro-European Union independent centrist, as their new president. There is a lot at stake for Lithuania and Nausėda, an economist and political novice, has little room for error.

Lithuania navigates a complex geopolitical environment among its fellow members in the turbulent European Union (EU), the fragile transatlantic alliance, and a resurgent Russia. Domestically, Lithuanians demand higher living standards, greater income equality, and elimination of corruption, all while there is a marked divergence of interests and values among different segments of society. While emigration ebbed last year, the drain of brain and brawn from Lithuania has had an impact on families and the labor market. The political elite lacks a coherent vision for their large émigré community and breakthroughs are unlikely given the failed referendum on May 12 to allow dual citizenship.

In the presidential election, the runoff between Nausėda and fellow economist and more conservative candidate Ingrida Šimonytė was in and of itself a victory for Lithuania. These two pro-Europe, center-right candidates contrasted significantly with the other candidates in the first round and with the rising number of populist, Eurosceptic, and ethno-nationalist politicians across Europe. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said “the election showed the maturity of Lithuanian society. People have values that cannot be effected by populism or blackmail.”

Both Šimonytė and Nausėda were expected to compete for the same electorate: younger, educated, pro-European, and urban voters. However, in the second round, Nausėda appealed to a much broader electoral sector winning more than 60 percent of the vote.

Who is Gitanas Nausėda?

Independent Nonpartisan

Continuing Lithuanian tradition and constitutional requirement, Nausėda is not a member of any political party. Even though political parties may propose candidates for the presidency and support their campaign, Nausėda remained an independent. This may have been the key to his success, making him appealing to a broader electorate. Meanwhile, Šimonytė was supported in the elections by the conservative Homeland Union-Christian Democrat party, possibly hurting her chances to be perceived as a true “people’s candidate” as her campaign proclaimed.

Nausėda’s victory may set a new bar in Lithuania. Political party affinity could be increasingly seen as a detriment to a presidential candidate, outweighing the benefits of party support such as financing, organizing, and getting out the voters.

New Face in Politics

Nausėda is a relatively fresh face on the Lithuanian political scene. This has worked to his advantage in the elections as established politicians rarely get high ratings from Lithuanian voters. In this regard, he is similar to both former presidents Grybauskaite and Valdas Adamkus, who were not widely known politicians before their election.

Nausėda spent his career in banking as an economist, analyst, and public intellectual. His public service included work in the Lithuanian state bank Lietuvos Bankas and subsequently as a senior adviser to Adamkus. Whether this experience will be a sufficient foundation for him as president to implement his vision and ideas and navigate the Lithuanian state apparatus remains to be seen.

Foreign Policy

The Lithuanian president’s most important responsibilities center on foreign policy while the prime minister is the head of government. Here Nausėda’s career with international banks and within the Adamkus presidency has provided him with some—albeit limited—experience in international relations. It remains to be seen how he will handle foreign policy crises in Lithuania’s geopolitically charged neighborhood.

Grybauskaitė has been among the most vocal European critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government and a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Nausėda has said that he could change the rhetoric toward Moscow, but that foreign policy will remain unchanged until Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine ends.

In an era of rising Euroscepticism, Nausėda is firm on the EU’s vital importance to Lithuania and the country’s role in a strong Union. Despite European trends of decreasing voter trust in European and national institutions, Nausėda’s nonpartisanship and strong mandate will be great assets for the Lithuanian presidency.

Meanwhile, despite her defeat, Šimonytė is a rising political star. Nausėda, as well as the leader of the conservative Homeland Union party Gabrielius Landsbergis, noted that Šimonytė could be next prime minister following the 2020 parliamentary elections. Nausėda and Šimonytė could make a good team offering stability, consistency, and commitment to the EU.

Lithuania’s presidential election has demonstrated the maturity of its electorate, who were not swayed by populism or extremism. Nausėda, like Šimonytė, represented the hopes of a new generation of Lithuanians and a politics of unity, transparency, and nonpartisanship. Whether these hopes will be met remains to be seen, but Nausėda will not have much room for failure given the pressure of geopolitics and the rising demands of the Lithuanian society.

Agnia Grigas is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and author of “The New Geopolitics of Natural Gas” and “Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire.”  Follow her on Twitter @AgniaGrigas.

The post Lithuania shuns populism with the election of a pro-EU president appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The 2019 EU elections https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/2019-eu-elections/ Sun, 26 May 2019 14:32:53 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/2019-eu-elections/ A collection of Atlantic Council pieces on the European parliamentary elections.

The post The 2019 EU elections appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
This is a series of analyses produced by the Atlantic Council on the European parliamentary elections.

EU banner 1

Europe’s Most Important Election

By Benjamin Haddad

The European Union (EU) is entering campaign season. Between May 23 and 26, every EU member state will vote to elect the 705 members of the European Parliament, one of the key Brussels institutions alongside the European Commission and the European Council of heads of states. Ever since the first direct election by EU citizens in 1979, European parliamentary elections have often failed to excite voters. The EU legislative process is complex and Brussels seems remote to many. National parties have often used the opportunity to recycle losers of national elections or distance annoying opponents. “In Brussels No One Can Hear You Scream” was the title of a Borgen episode in which the fictional Danish prime minister “promotes” her main rival to the European Commission.

This time is different.

Read more.

Europe’s Unsettling Parliamentary Elections: A View from Spain

By Ana Palacio

Since the first European parliamentary elections in 1979, and notwithstanding the growing powers of the Parliament, the prevailing impression these contests have left has been boredom, almost afterthoughts. Progressively declining voter turnout cycle after cycle drove home this point. Efforts to make the elections more relevant, like the establishment of the spitzenkandidaten system linking the results to the selection of the president of the European Commission, made hardly a blip. This year, however, the elections to be held between May 23 and 26 have gone from barely relevant to disquieting.

Read more.

Euroscepticism and Populism to Gain in Dutch Representation in the European Parliament

By Bart Oosterveld

As is the case elsewhere on the European continent, parties away from the political center are expected to perform quite well in the European parliamentary elections in the Netherlands on May 23. With twenty-six seats in the European Parliament allocated to the Netherlands, polls in recent weeks have suggested that around five will be won by the far-right populist, Eurosceptic Forum voor Democratie (Forum for Democracy or FvD), a party that did not contend in the last European elections in 2014. This is not unusual. Fringe parties tend to perform better in European elections than in the national elections, as seen in the 2012 general elections and subsequent European elections in 2014. A similar cycle could take place this time, as the European elections follow the general elections of 2017.

Read more.

EU Parliamentary Elections: What to Expect in France

By Benjamin Haddad

On May 26, French voters will choose between thirty-four lists on a nationwide proportional ballot in the European Union (EU) parliamentary elections. Historically, European elections have failed to sustain public attention, suffering from parties treating it as an afterthought (often recycling losers from national elections) and the complex and distant nature of European institutions. In 2014, French voter turnout in the EU elections was 42 percent, a far cry from the 78 percent of the first round of the 2017 presidential election. For these reasons, European elections have generally been a godsend for extremist forces.

Read more.

European Elections Are a Win, of Sorts, for Greece

By Katerina Sokou

In Greece, European parliamentary elections on May 26 are being viewed as a litmus test ahead of national elections later this year. Domestic politics have dominated the debate and the opposition has framed the election as a referendum against the government. The fact that European elections are to be held at the same time as local elections for mayors and regional governors has further obscured European issues.

Read more.

Why Europe’s Election Matters in Poland

By Katarzyna Pisarska

The European parliamentary elections in Poland, which are expected to draw a record turnout, will set the stage for national parliamentary elections in the fall. The election will be a vote of confidence in the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and reveal the level of public support for two competing visions for the future of Europe: an integrationist, open, and solidarity-driven Europe or a conservative “Christian” Europe of sovereign states.

Read more.

The Importance of Hungary’s European Election

By Anna Juhos

In polls conducted in 2014 and 2018, 60 percent and 80 percent of Hungarians, respectively, said they consider themselves to be citizens of the European Union (EU). Nevertheless, Hungary had less than 30 percent voter turnout in the European parliamentary elections in 2014. In 2019, a year after Hungary’s center-right Fidesz party decisively won the national elections for the third consecutive time, there are two reasons why Hungarians should be more involved in the European elections on May 26: this election will determine the place of Hungary’s parties in the European political spectrum and the outcome will have consequences for Hungary’s municipal elections in the fall.

Read more.

Strong Support for the EU in Sweden Ahead of European Elections

By Anna Wieslander

Support for the European Union (EU) remains high in Sweden. Recent polls show that while 65 percent of Swedes support EU membership, only 19 percent would like Sweden to leave the Union. As a result of this strong public support, Sweden’s two most Eurosceptic parties, the Left Party (part of the European United Left/Nordic Green Left or GUE/NGL group in the European Parliament) and the Swedish Democrats (part of the European Conservatives and Reformists  or ECR group in the European Parliament), have abandoned their demand that Sweden ought to leave the EU, instead saying that they would work from inside the Union to shift it in their desired direction.

Read more.

Here’s What to Expect from Germany’s European Vote

By Jörn Fleck

Continuing the recent domestic trend of political fragmentation, the parties of Germany’s ruling “grand coalition”—German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and her junior partners of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD)—are expected to lose significant shares of the vote in the European elections later this month compared to 2014. However, the outcome of the election in the European Union’s largest economy and most populous member state will not impact Germany’s broadly pro-European Union (EU) positions and strategy in significant ways.

Read more.

Italy’s Salvini Will be the Man to Watch in the European Parliamentary Elections

By Emiliano Alessandri

With European Parliament elections fast approaching, Italy is on the verge of a political crisis—but it has nothing to do with Europe. Neither the right-wing League nor the anti-establishment Five Star Movement—the two partners of the unlikely populist coalition that has ruled Italy since 2018—has made Europe the focus of their campaigns, albeit both having fueled anti-EU sentiments in recent years.

Read more.

Bullseye on Brussels: Can EU Defeat Disinformation in Parliamentary Elections?

By Teri Schultz

The vast amount of foreign meddling in the 2016 US presidential election was a wakeup call for the European Union (EU). It was obvious the next big target of malign actors would be Europe, with twenty-eight countries electing more than 750 lawmakers in May 2019.

Read more.

The post The 2019 EU elections appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
European elections are a win, of sorts, for Greece https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/european-elections-are-a-win-of-sorts-for-greece/ Mon, 20 May 2019 16:55:55 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/european-elections-are-a-win-of-sorts-for-greece/ Overcoming the strains with its European partners, Greece is heading to its first European elections after the crisis with its biggest parties claiming not only to be pro-European, but also to be fighting populism.

The post European elections are a win, of sorts, for Greece appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
This article is part of a series on the 2019 European Union parliamentary elections.

In Greece, European parliamentary elections on May 26 are being viewed as a litmus test ahead of national elections later this year. Domestic politics have dominated the debate and the opposition has framed the election as a referendum against the government. The fact that European elections are to be held at the same time as local elections for mayors and regional governors has further obscured European issues.

At the national level, the campaign has been polarized by high political drama and unrelenting personal attacks. This culminated in a vote of confidence in parliament, which Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won on May 10. In anticipation of national elections in October 2019, Tsipras’ governing Syriza party is playing its last political cards. On May 7, the prime minister announced new measures to ease the austerity policies favored by Greece’s creditors.  Meanwhile, the main opposition party, New Democracy, which is ahead in the polls for both European and national elections, has been asking for early national elections, accusing Tsipras of pandering to voters.

EU banner 1

Syriza focused its European campaign message on shaping a better future for Europe. It has put together a progressive alliance against the forces of ultra-right populism and nationalism, which it argues includes New Democracy.

New Democracy has responded with an all-out attack against the government’s record, accusing Syriza of being the populist party that brought Greece to the brink of being kicked out of the Eurozone in 2015. New Democracy blames the government for delaying the end of the crisis by four years with its uncompromising stance which led to yet another bailout program, undermining democratic institutions, and inflaming national rifts.  

Despite this heated political environment, significant change has occurred in Greek politics since the last European elections in 2014. Many observers tend to forget the upset of that election in Greece, when, in the midst of the Greek financial crisis and with New Democracy in power, Syriza finished in first place and the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party rose to third place, sending its representatives to the European Parliament for the first time. This time, Syriza is no longer radical and a further rise of the far-right looks unlikely, contrary to what is taking place in other European countries.

Even as it focuses on the domestic political stakes, New Democracy has been reminding voters that it was the first pro-European party of Greece, while identifying with the agenda of its European political family, the European People’s Party (EPP). In fact, the EPP launched its European campaign from Athens, with its president, Manfred Weber, also receiving the support of New Democracy leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis for his candidacy for European Commission president.

Syriza now claims space in the European political center, having made “a systematic attempt to present itself as a social democratic, center-left party.” To that end, it is running with Democratic Alliance, a small centrist party which in 2014 had formed a progressive alliance with the social democrats of Kinima Allagis. While Syriza is currently a member of the European United Left-Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) pan-European political grouping, it has also been an observer at the Party of European Socialists (PES) meetings. These moves put it at odds with Kinima Allagis, which is a member and has historic ties with PES.

Even as Kinima Allagis accuses Syriza of opportunism and claims to be the original progressive party of Greece, it saw its base wither during the financial crisis. According to a European Parliament poll, the party is only projected to receive 7.2 percent of the vote. This may not be enough to bring it to third place ahead of Golden Dawn. Even though the latter’s base has shrunk, it is still projected to get 7.9 percent of the vote. On the contrary, the Communist Party is expected to gain a little, reaching 6.7 percent.

Polarization is expected to hurt the chances of the smaller parties. The former government coalition partner, Independent Greeks, and the River, a centrist party that won 6.6 percent of the vote in 2014, are not projected to reach the 5 percent threshold needed to be elected to the European Parliament. This is also the case for newcomers such as former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’ DIEM25 movement.

Still, the prominence of domestic politics in the campaign suggests that Greece’s relations with the EU have normalized. Its position in the EU is no longer challenged by populists. In a way, these European elections may be seen as a win of sorts for Greece: overcoming the strains with its European partners, Greece is heading to its first European elections after the crisis with its biggest parties claiming not only to be pro-European, but also to be fighting populism—even as, for domestic political purposes, this translates into fighting each other.

Katerina Sokou is the Washington DC correspondent for “Kathimerini” Greek Daily and SKAI TV and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Follow her on Twitter @KaterinaSokou.

The post European elections are a win, of sorts, for Greece appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Euroscepticism and populism to gain in Dutch representation in the European Parliament https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/euroscepticism-and-populism-to-gain-in-dutch-representation-in-the-european-parliament/ Fri, 17 May 2019 19:11:01 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/euroscepticism-and-populism-to-gain-in-dutch-representation-in-the-european-parliament/ As is the case elsewhere on the European continent, parties away from the political center are expected to perform quite well in the European parliamentary elections in the Netherlands on May 23.

The post Euroscepticism and populism to gain in Dutch representation in the European Parliament appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
As is the case elsewhere on the European continent, parties away from the political center are expected to perform quite well in the European parliamentary elections in the Netherlands on May 23. With twenty-six seats in the European Parliament allocated to the Netherlands, polls in recent weeks have suggested that around five will be won by the far-right populist, Eurosceptic Forum voor Democratie (Forum for Democracy or FvD), a party that did not contend in the last European elections in 2014. This is not unusual. Fringe parties tend to perform better in European elections than in the national elections, as seen in the 2012 general elections and subsequent European elections in 2014. A similar cycle could take place this time, as the European elections follow the general elections of 2017.

Populist Parties Will Gain Despite General Support for European Project

If the five seats currently projected by polls hold, the FvD will likely be tied for the largest party in vote share with Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). The FvD and its leader, Thierry Baudet, an author and political theorist, entered politics just three years ago and finished first in the provincial elections in March, as a result holding the most seats in the Dutch Senate.

Over time, Baudet’s aim on European governance is a referendum on the Netherlands’ membership in the European Union (EU), which he views as a set of institutions inconsistent with notions of national sovereignty. While wanting to gauge the effects of Brexit on the United Kingdom, Baudet has stated: “I am ideologically against the EU, against the internal market, against the open borders, against the euro, against the whole thing.”

FvD’s lead candidate for the European elections, Derk Jan Eppink, has stated an intention to join the European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) in the European Parliament. This has generated resistance from some existing members of the ECR, including the Dutch Christian Union (CU). Eppink, a former staffer to VVD European Commissioner Frits Bolkestein, is the author of a damning book about his time working for the European Commission.

As things stand, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), running partially on an anti-Islam and anti-immigration platform, is expected to win two seats in the European Parliament. While polls find dissatisfaction in the Dutch electorate over the benefits of EU membership to the Netherlands, more than 70 percent say they would vote to remain in the EU in the case of a membership referendum.

Center-Left Social Democrats and Center-Right Christian Democrats Expected to Lose Ground, Greens Will Do Well

Also of note are the poor anticipated results of the social democratic Labour Party (PvdA), the party of European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans. Such a showing will continue a trend for the party, which obtained historically poor results in the last national elections in the Netherlands in 2017. In the most recent polls, the party is expected to win only two seats in the European Parliament, down from three in 2014. Given that Timmermans is the lead candidate for the Party of European Socialists, part of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group in the European Parliament, this weakness would be significant, especially as he has ambitions for a significant portfolio in the next European Commission.

As in Germany, and other European countries, it would seem some of the social democrat electorate is moving toward the Greens, which is currently anticipated to place third overall behind the FvD and VVD, and gain three seats, one more than in 2014. The high hopes of the Green parties in Europe at the beginning of the campaign seem, however, to be slowly deflating, even though they will still improve upon their results from 2014.

Centrist Bloc May Be Significantly Weakened

The centrist, EU-supporting bloc composed of VVD, D’66, Christian Democratic Appeal party (CDA), and PvdA will lose significantly if current polls hold. The CDA is anticipated to drop from five seats to two, same as the D’66, a member of the ruling coalition in the Netherlands.

Of the groups in the European Parliament, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) looks to be least affected, as the VVD and D’66 will continue to combine for around seven seats. It remains to be seen how effective and strategic the newly elected representatives from existing and new Eurosceptic parties will be once in position, though at the very least they are likely to gain a powerful platform for disruption at both the national and the European level.

Bart Oosterveld is the C. Boyden Gray Fellow on Global Finance and Growth and director of Global Business & Economics Program.

The post Euroscepticism and populism to gain in Dutch representation in the European Parliament appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
EU parliamentary elections: What to expect in France https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/eu-parliamentary-elections-what-to-expect-in-france/ Wed, 15 May 2019 14:24:15 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/eu-parliamentary-elections-what-to-expect-in-france/ If En Marche ends first with a score resembling Macron’s 2017 first-round showing (24 percent), he will have reason to claim victory in a ballot that usually turns into a beating for the ruling party.

The post EU parliamentary elections: What to expect in France appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
This article is part of a series on the 2019 European Union parliamentary elections.

On May 26, French voters will choose between thirty-four lists on a nationwide proportional ballot in the European Union (EU) parliamentary elections. Historically, European elections have failed to sustain public attention, suffering from parties treating it as an afterthought (often recycling losers from national elections) and the complex and distant nature of European institutions. In 2014, French voter turnout in the EU elections was 42 percent, a far cry from the 78 percent of the first round of the 2017 presidential election. For these reasons, European elections have generally been a godsend for extremist forces.

EU banner 1

A Ballot Hijacked by Domestic Turmoil

In France, the European agenda has been overshadowed by the Gilets Jaunes protests that have gripped the nation since last November. In response to the violent protest movement, French President Emmanuel Macron has launched a “national debate,” inviting citizens to express their grievances to officials. While the debate has somewhat successfully subdued the intensity of the movement (helped by the radicalization of many Gilets Jaunes actors), French citizens are divided over Macron’s policy announcements. Add to this the flood of national emotion following the devastating fire at the Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris on April 15. All this has created a volatile political environment, little public focus, and most parties are tempted to turn the elections into a referendum on Macron.

En Marche, Le Pen: Two Front-runners With Distinct European Messages

La République En Marche (LREM), Macron’s political movement, and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, are currently polling neck and neck with around 22 percent of support. En Marche has a slight lead in most surveys.

A victory for Le Pen would signify a clear disavowal for Macron in his first national electoral test since his surprise 2017 election, although it wouldn’t be unprecedented since the National Front (RN’s former appellation) topped the ballot in 2014, so far the only national election it has won.

En Marche, running on a clear pro-EU platform, has so far failed to jolt a moribund campaign. Its top candidate, Nathalie Loiseau, Macron’s minister for European affairs until April, has attempted to put “a protective Europe” and environmental issues at the heart of her message. But her campaign has been embroiled in gaffes and minor controversies, leading commentators to question her leadership.

It is noteworthy, however, that both leading parties can claim a clear identity on European issues. En Marche was created in 2016 on the premise that the traditional right-left divide was obsolete and pro-European reformists from the center-left and the center-right should unite their forces, while Le Pen has long been a leading Eurosceptic voice on the Continent. This divide seems to vindicate Macron’s intuition that European issues would increasingly shape the political conversation between “nationalists” and “progressives,” embodied by his willingness to take on Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as his direct opponents.

Macron, however, has so far been unsuccessful at recreating his domestic coalition on a continental scale. Early ambitions to break traditional political groups at the European Parliament to build a progressive European En Marche have smashed on a static reality. En Marche will sit at the European Parliament with centrist liberals ALDE, a movement poised to gather the third-highest number of votes, hoping to play the role of kingmakers in the post-election coalition negotiations.

Behind the two front-runners, the center-right Les Républicains (LR) is polling at around 14 percent. Once one of France’s two leading parties (running the country with President Nicolas Sarkozy from 2007 to 2012), LR has lost its centrality in French politics. While it is scrambling for third place, it looks, however, set to get a higher number of seats than expected thanks to a dynamic and intelligent campaign led by thirty-three-year-old conservative philosopher François-Xavier Bellamy.

An Election That Will Determine Macron’s European Momentum

EU reform has been at the heart of Macron’s rise to power and presidency. Enthusiastic activists brandished the European flag at campaign rallies, and the newly elected president gave his victory speech with Beethoven’s 9th symphony playing in the background. In his Sorbonne speech in September 2017 and the March 2019 Renaissance letter directly addressed to the populations of the twenty-seven EU member states, Macron laid out an ambitious agenda for “European sovereignty” and a “Europe that protects its citizens.” Two years in, Macron has little to show for his proposals on integrating the Eurozone or bolstering European defense, due to a reluctant German partner, rising populism on the Continent, and a European agenda focused on Brexit.

A defeat on May 26 would further weaken Macron’s hand on the European stage. On the other hand, if En Marche ends first with a score resembling Macron’s 2017 first-round showing (24 percent), he will have reason to claim victory in a ballot that usually turns into a beating for the ruling party.

Refusing the Spitzenkandidaten formula of awarding leadership posts based on election results, Macron hopes to shape the outcome of negotiations on key jobs (Commission presidency, Council presidency, European Central Bank chairmanship). With whom? Many are betting on the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. Barnier, a French citizen, is a member of the European People’s Party (EPP) (the likely winner of the European elections) and has supported LR in the ballot. He is nonetheless known for having cordial relations with Macron who could see him as an ally at the helm of the European Commission, yet independent and respected enough to win the day among EU partners, including in Eastern European countries distraught at Paris’ confrontational tone. This could give new life to Macron’s ambitions for Europe after months of political crisis. But May 26 will be the first obstacle to overcome.

Benjamin Haddad is the director of the Future Europe Initiative at the Atlantic Council. He is the author of “Paradise Lost: Trump’s America and the End of European Illusions.” He was the Washington representative of Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche movement in 2017. Follow him on Twitter @benjaminhaddad.

The post EU parliamentary elections: What to expect in France appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Children as a tool: how Russia militarizes kids in the Donbas and Crimea https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/children-as-a-tool-how-russia-militarizes-kids-in-the-donbas-and-crimea/ Fri, 03 May 2019 17:14:12 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/ukrainealert/children-as-a-tool-how-russia-militarizes-kids-in-the-donbas-and-crimea/ With an eye to the future, officials in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine are waging a campaign of “patriotic education” aimed at reaching the hearts and minds of those most susceptible to ideological persuasion: children. Russia has always used the militarization of public life to indoctrinate local populations and continues that practice today. Currently, thousands […]

The post Children as a tool: how Russia militarizes kids in the Donbas and Crimea appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
With an eye to the future, officials in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine are waging a campaign of “patriotic education” aimed at reaching the hearts and minds of those most susceptible to ideological persuasion: children.

Russia has always used the militarization of public life to indoctrinate local populations and continues that practice today. Currently, thousands of children in the Donbas and Crimea are subject to military training or other military-related activities. While there are no official records on the topic, human rights activists and the media have provided wide-ranging evidence of children’s participation in military-related events and training, and even their recruitment in non-state armed formations.

Military-themed education

Above all, Russia reaches children in the occupied territories of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), and Crimea through education. The ministries of education in these areas are directly or indirectly supported by Russia and follow the Russian state program on patriotic education, which was approved in 2015.

That year, with its law on “patriotic education,” the LPR compelled educational institutions of all levels, organizations, religious confessions, and even families “to shape children’s consciousness” from an early age. The officials are explicit about their strategic goals: they want young people to “express themselves in strengthening the state and securing its vital interests.”

A similar plan was signed by the self-proclaimed head of the DPR in 2017. That program also includes “pre-conscription training of young people” to encourage them to join the armed forces and participate in the political life of the “republic.” Its core message references the “formation of moral, psychological, and physical readiness of youth to defend the Motherland, loyalty to the constitutional and military debt in peacetime and wartime.”

For school children, “hours of patriotic upbringing” are reportedly common in the republics and Crimea. Schools often host military-related classes and training from public organizations such as the DPR’s Young Republic. Although military-patriotic education is not usually part of the school curricula in annexed Crimea, Iryna Siedova from Crimean Human Rights Group says there is a range of Russian Cossack classes and half-military schools, such as Crimean Cossacks’ Сorps of Cadets for young children there.

Cases of soft but clear militarization in preschools are not rare. A recent video by the DPR’s Ministry of Information shows small kids in military uniforms and caps in the Alenka nursery in Donetsk. The four-year olds repeat exercises after military men, march with DPR flags, sing military songs, and recite patriotic poems. Experts say that militarized classes in preschools are just as common in Crimea.

Other tactics are also used to sway young minds. The Representative of Ukrainian Ombudsman in Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, Pavlo Lysiansky, reported in December 2018 that more than 5,000 children have passed through militarized patriotic camps from the occupied side. Unsurprisingly, such camps often take place in Russia, where they host children from Ukraine’s occupied territories. The Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group notes that notorious figures “guilty of war crimes in the Donbas” have contributed to training the children “how to fight and kill.”

Russia also uses military-patriotic clubs to indoctrinate children; as of September 2018, there were forty-eight registered in the DPR. Their official purpose varies between tourist activities and actual military training for youth, but systematic militarization is invariably a priority. Besides regular classes for its cadets, minors are taught military regulations, marching, knife throwing, and dealing with weapons. Cases are regularly reported by the Eastern Human Rights Group on Facebook; recent evidence depicts Luhansk juveniles taking part in shooting exercises as well as disassembling and reassembling machine guns.

Many groups in the occupied regions engaged in this kind of indoctrination emerged on the basis of already-existing NGOs. For example, the first public organization, Peace for Luhansk, was registered in November 2014 and defines its goal as to “fight against fascism, and integration with the Russian Federation.” Notably, more than 13,000 of its members work in education. Some of its projects, such as Care for Veterans, infiltrate youth with ideas of hatred toward Ukraine. Some are overtly aimed at militarization. Another project called Volunteer, launched to engage people in “humanitarian” assistance, reportedly encourages children to go to the frontline.

Although the media also report on training programs in Ukraine’s government-controlled territories, that effort is not as massive as the one occurring in the DPR and LPR and occupied Crimea, according to Justice for Peace in Donbas.

And these programs are still being created. On April 5, a local news website announced the creation of the Yunarmia military-patriotic movement, an analogue of the popular movement in Russia of the same name. It was initiated by Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu and supported by President Vladimir Putin. Yunarmia is widely known for its robust militarization of children’s life through public activities and events. Last year, Russia-appointed authorities promised that Yunarmia’s clubs would appear “in all schools of Crimea.”

Child soldiers

At the end of June 2018, a video of a child dressed in military uniform shocked social media users. Saying he “helps [DPR fighters] to serve, and assists in shootings,” seven-year-old Nikita adds, “When a Ukrainian appears, we just blast him, and that’s it, he’s f*cked.”

This is not a unique case of a child’s radicalized mindset, and, unfortunately, not just a loud statement. In the occupied regions, Russian propaganda has moved beyond education. Since 2014, children have participated voluntarily in nongovernment armed formations on both sides. However, the number of reported cases in Russian-occupied territories significantly exceeds that on the Ukrainian government-controlled side.

In 2015, Agence France Press published a story about child soldiers “in the making”: twenty kids aged fourteen to nineteen who were trained by Patriotic Donbas in the town of Khartsyzk during their summer break. Reportedly, some of them had already been trained how to use Kalashnikov machine guns. A year later, Justice for Peace in Donbas noted thirty-seven cases of underage individuals who participated in armed formations of so-called D/LPRs, compared to four on the Ukrainian-controlled side.

In fact, minors are reportedly involved in all types of prohibited activities. Russian-backed separatists use children for spying in social media, passing messages, running arms stores, carrying weapons, and serving at checkpoints. It is difficult to track how youngsters get there; however, indicated cases include children who enrolled voluntarily, or were recruited through social media or personal pressure.

International law

The Russian occupying regime and its proxy republics constantly demonstrate their disregard for international law. Since the intervention in Ukraine, Russia has broken its international obligations affirmed in the Geneva Convention and Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the involvement of children in armed conflict. These prohibit propagandization of voluntary or forced recruitment in state or non-state armed formations on occupied territories—and more so, the recruitment and use of underage individuals in hostilities. By trying to form a positive image of its paramilitary formations and the army, and encouraging children to join their ranks, it also violates Article 29 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, to which it is a party.

Human rights organizations are continually gathering evidence of such violations in order to hold Russia accountable in the future. According to Siedova, evidence of war crimes is also sent to the International Criminal Court.

With Ukraine lacking access to its occupied territories, the protection of children’s rights in the Donbas and Crimea remains a challenge. At the same time, the country hopes to retake control of the territories eventually. With that in mind, Ukraine must consider now how it plans to reintegrate the younger generations, which are being brought up in an atmosphere of hatred and hostility toward the state they were born in—and which they have been largely isolated from.

Iryna Matviyishyn is a journalist and analyst for Ukraine World Group. 

The post Children as a tool: how Russia militarizes kids in the Donbas and Crimea appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Ukraine’s new language law rights historic wrongs https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-s-parliament-passes-language-law-which-rights-historical-wrongs/ Thu, 02 May 2019 00:56:14 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-s-parliament-passes-language-law-which-rights-historical-wrongs/ For centuries the Ukrainian language was relegated to the status of a “peasant language” by the foreign rulers of the lands that make up the country today and by foreign scholars in Europe and abroad who perpetuated this Russian imperial falsehood. More recently, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited a Soviet political […]

The post Ukraine’s new language law rights historic wrongs appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
For centuries the Ukrainian language was relegated to the status of a “peasant language” by the foreign rulers of the lands that make up the country today and by foreign scholars in Europe and abroad who perpetuated this Russian imperial falsehood. More recently, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited a Soviet political elite who spoke Russian, and to this day all of Ukraine’s oligarchs are Russian-speaking. This has buttressed the post-colonial dominance of the Russian language and culture in the public sphere and the subsequent ostracism of the Ukrainian language. The Ukrainian-speaking majority has been historically marginalized as peripheral, with inferior access to high culture, quality education, prestigious jobs, political office, and the creation of wealth primarily due to the bias of the established colonial practices that saw Ukrainian as “low” and “rural.”

That all changed on April 25, when the parliament adopted a new language law. The numerous reactions to it both domestically and abroad would have made a fascinating character study to catalogue the people and their reactions on the various television programs. On display was a broad swath of human emotions ranging from euphoria to lament. The intellectuals, as well as young people with university degrees who had spent time abroad, came across as extremely supportive and contented. The laborers and pensioners who had enjoyed limited opportunities for higher education and travel outside of the former Soviet Union were more dismissive. In further observation, several of the second category mentioned that their discomfort was due to limited knowledge of the language and not some sense of discrimination. Regret that there was too little interesting content in Ukrainian on TV was mentioned several times, a particular issue that should be, in theory, remedied by the new law.

In a form of Ukrainian exceptionalism, the long-derided Ukrainian “peasant language” has not only survived but has flourished and become the lingua franca and the way forward of progressive thinkers, writers, civic and religious leaders, intellectuals, and the majority of Ukrainians. Intentionally choosing to speak Ukrainian signals that a person wants to develop the country into a modern European nation based on values and the rule of law. For many, the Russian language is associated with a return back to a dark and gloomy totalitarian past. Unlike during the Czarist or Soviet times, this new language law does not attach any stigma to speaking another language; instead, it requires that Ukrainian be the language of first resort to balance out its significance among all of the languages spoken in Ukraine.

The role of the diaspora should not be ignored in this narrative. Ukrainians have much to be grateful for to their large and effective representative communities abroad, who have carried Ukraine in their soul to preserve its heritage, its multi-ethnic and religious culture, and its rich language and literature. Their patriotism and contribution to the development of Ukraine has never been limited by any geographical boundaries. That should be a lesson to all in Ukraine, that patriotism is not bound by borders or language, but rather by the closeness of those who love their country and who are willing to invest in its success.

Andrej Lushnycky is president of the Ukrainian Society of Switzerland.

The post Ukraine’s new language law rights historic wrongs appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Europe’s most important election https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-s-most-important-election/ Mon, 01 Apr 2019 17:08:04 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-s-most-important-election/ The 2019 vote is the most important European election to ever take place. Not only because it takes place in a time of deep uncertainty about the European project, but more so because for the first time the campaign is really about differing visions of what the EU should be.

The post Europe’s most important election appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The European Union (EU) is entering campaign season. Between May 23 and 26, every EU member state will vote to elect the 705 members of the European Parliament, one of the key Brussels institutions alongside the European Commission and the European Council of heads of states. Ever since the first direct election by EU citizens in 1979, European parliamentary elections have often failed to excite voters. The EU legislative process is complex and Brussels seems remote to many. National parties have often used the opportunity to recycle losers of national elections or distance annoying opponents. “In Brussels No One Can Hear You Scream” was the title of a Borgen episode in which the fictional Danish prime minister “promotes” her main rival to the European Commission.

This time is different.

The 2019 vote is the most important European election to ever take place. Not only because it takes place in a time of deep uncertainty about the European project, but more so because for the first time the campaign is really about differing visions of what the EU should be. Previous campaigns often focused on domestic issues. When European questions emerged, national agendas trumped differences in visions of Europe. This year though, the election pits ideological coalitions that transcend national interests against one another, a consequence of challenges that have affected the Continent as a whole.

Consider everything that has happened in the five years since the last European Parliament elections in 2014. Geopolitical crises and political upheavals have rocked the Continent. Relations with Russia dramatically deteriorated following the March 2014 annexation of Crimea and ensuing Russian aggression in Donbas. In 2015, the migrant crisis tested Europe’s common borders, sparking a nationalist upheaval. In 2016, British voters chose to leave the EU and Donald J. Trump was elected president of the United States on an “America First” platform. Europeans have been stunned to hear Trump describe the EU as a “foe,” impose economic tariffs on them, and question US security commitments.

Europeans have awakened to a dangerous world and uncertainty on the horizon. In Italy, a founding member of the European Community, a far-right populist party, Lega, is de facto in charge. In Germany, Angela Merkel, who has said she will resign in 2021, won’t be chancellor at the time of the next European ballot. In France, if President Emmanuel Macron fails to implement his reform agenda he will likely be followed by the kind of populist opposition that the Yellow Jackets movement embodied these last few months.

But this could also be a time of renewal for the EU. It’s easy to look at divisions among European leaders as one more sign of the degradation of the European project. But what if this moment could spark the birth of a real and much-needed European public sphere that had been sorely lacking until now? The election result will set the tone for the direction the EU will take and determine the political color of the European Commission’s president. Many observers fear populist forces will strengthen their presence in parliament and complicate any coalition-building efforts between the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE).

Europe is going through a genuine and interesting debate over its model and identity. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini have called for a stop to immigration (although they have come short on concrete proposals on how to address the situation), push a nationalist narrative, and describe Macron as their main enemy—a title the French president has heartily embraced—because they see him as advocating for solidarity on immigration and further EU integration on defense and the eurozone. Many of these questions have often been left to bureaucrats or avoided altogether. Now they are being put in front of voters.

The challenges that Europeans face can’t be left to lawyers and economists. If pro-Europe activists want to win again they need to understand that populists have brought politics back to Europe; they should embrace it and get in the fight. The paradox is that so far nationalists have been better at using the European Parliament to promote their own agenda. Many remember speeches by Nigel Farage, the former head of the UK Independence Party, deriding European Council President Donald Tusk.

Pro-Europeans should not be afraid to appeal directly to voters. In a bold move earlier in March, Macron decided to directly address the public with an op-ed published in major newspapers in which he called for a “European renaissance.” Macron’s op-ed signaled an important change of tone from Europe’s supporters, too often stuck in defensive mode. (If only voters knew the good the EU does for them!) Macron’s EU renaissance project is somber and lucid. It shows he understands that pro-Europeans can’t just wait Trump out or hope that voters will come to their senses and appreciate all the benefits of Europe. It takes into consideration the EU’s failures, such as ineffective immigration policies or lacking economic coordination.

It could be tempting to look at Britain’s post-Brexit referendum woes and be complacent about the EU, but the chaos in British politics has not suddenly erased the EU’s difficulties. Macron takes Brexit as a cautionary tale in his op-ed and sees the British vote as a symbol of “the crisis of Europe, which has failed to respond to its peoples’ needs for protection from the major shocks of the modern world.”

Arguing for common defense initiatives, stronger border control, and a more integrated eurozone, Macron makes the case that European sovereignty can protect Europeans. Instead of ignoring the populists, he attempts to capture their own vocabulary of protectionism and sovereignty by arguing that these challenges can only be met at the EU level rather than divided and isolated national levels.

Europe needs politics; it needs its defenders to enter the arena and fight for ideas that can’t be left to bureaucrats. Helping Ukraine face Russian aggression, promoting economic solidarity in the eurozone, ensuring European sovereignty, staying open and tolerant to immigration, those aren’t value-free propositions that can be solved by cost-benefit analysis. European politicians need to make the case for these policies in front of voters. They need to push policies that will protect Europe’s citizens. A failure to do so means the populists win, and deservedly so.

Benjamin Haddad is the director of the Future Europe Initiative at the Atlantic Council. His forthcoming book “Paradise Lost: Trump’s America and the end of European illusions” will be published in French by Grasset in April. He was the Washington representative of Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche movement in 2017. Follow him on Twitter @benjaminhaddad.

The post Europe’s most important election appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Far right grows in opposition to Dutch consensus politics https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/far-right-grows-in-opposition-to-dutch-consensus-politics/ Thu, 21 Mar 2019 16:50:48 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/far-right-grows-in-opposition-to-dutch-consensus-politics/ The more anti-establishment parties grow, the more parties in the center need to team up to govern the country, which lends credence to the far-right’s claim that all mainstream parties are the same.

The post Far right grows in opposition to Dutch consensus politics appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Far-right parties in the Netherlands posted their best result to date in midterm elections on March 20. The Party for Freedom (PVV) and Forum for Democracy took a combined 21 percent of the votes. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s four-party coalition government is projected to lose its majority in the Senate.

It wasn’t all bad news for Rutte. His liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) still placed second and his government will not, as it feared, be completely dependent on the Greens in the new Senate. It should be able to do deals with the Labor Party and smaller parties on the center-right as well.

The result will probably be more compromise in the middle, but that could feed into a vicious circle: the more anti-establishment parties grow, the more parties in the center need to team up to govern the country, which lends credence to the far-right’s claim that all mainstream parties are the same. PVV leader Geert Wilders warned right-wing voters before the election that a vote for Rutte would be a vote for the Greens. Thierry Baudet of Forum for Democracy, which only entered parliament for the first time two years ago, claims the Netherlands is ruled by an unaccountable “party cartel.”

In the past, Rutte tried to reach out to far-right voters. His VVD once included the PVV in a coalition government. It adopted a harder line on immigration and (unsuccessfully) campaigned against a second bailout for Greece. The Christian Democratic CDA similarly moved to the right, campaigning, for example, for a more patriotic high-school curriculum. It didn’t persuade many voters to switch back to the center-right.

Rutte tried a different strategy this year, deliberately placing himself in a long Dutch tradition of consensus politics. On the eve of the March 20 election, when voters elected provincial deputies who will in turn elect a new Senate in May, he did a climate deal with the Greens that should see the Netherlands meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. His campaign was centered on coalition-building and he criticized parties that create division and refuse to compromise. It allowed the VVD to offset its losses on the right with gains in the center. Among the biggest losers were Rutte’s allies in the socially progressive D66, which lost voters to both the VVD and the Greens.

The center-left Labor Party and far-left Socialists also lost, dealing another blow to European social democracy and throwing doubt on their electoral strategies. Both parties are traditionally composed of middle- and upper-class progressives on the one hand and lower-class working voters on the other, with Labor leaning in one direction and the Socialists in the other. Neither has been willing to make a choice between those constituencies even as their interests and values have diverged. University-educated progressives now prefer the more outspoken D66 and Greens, who are also unambiguously pro-European Union. Many working-class voters, who don’t experience the benefits of globalization but who have personally felt the effects of public-sector cuts and worry about the economic and social consequences of immigration, have defected to the far-right. Non-white voters, traditionally another left-wing bloc, have warmed to the minority-rights party Denk. Seniors can vote for 50Plus. Labor and the Socialists are left without a solid base.

Fragmentation is nothing new in Dutch politics. The country’s system of proportional representation doesn’t throw up many roadblocks in the way of newcomers. Some parties come and go. Others go up and down. In the end, the center tends to hold and policy outcomes are remarkably stable. Precisely because it now takes multiple parties across the two chambers of parliament to get things done, radical change is unlikely.

On the upside, the Dutch economy is in good shape and voters give high marks to their personal lives. Despite the far-right’s claims to the contrary, public services are of high quality. The Dutch health care system is considered the best in Europe. Few people live healthier and longer than the Dutch. The Dutch education system is ranked as the fifth– or eighth-best in the world.

But there is clearly a chunk of the electorate that feels left out or left behind. Their motivations are little different from Brexit voters in the United Kingdom and Donald J. Trump’s voters in the United States.

When, on the heels of Trump’s victory, Rutte defeated the PVV in 2017, it looked like the Netherlands might have found the answer to right-wing populism. That is not the case. Wilders lost again on March 20, but Baudet is now tied with the VVD. On climate, multiculturalism, and Russia, he is even more alt-right than Wilders—and mainstream parties don’t know how to beat him.

Nick Ottens is a Dutch political analyst. He blogs at atlanticsentinel.com.

The post Far right grows in opposition to Dutch consensus politics appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
What’s driving the spat between France and Italy? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-s-driving-the-spat-between-france-and-italy/ Thu, 14 Feb 2019 18:50:02 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-s-driving-the-spat-between-france-and-italy/ The meeting, and ensuing French reaction, marks a peak in the escalation of rhetoric between French President Emmanuel Macron and the leaders of Italy’s ruling Five Star-League coalition over the past eight months.

The post What’s driving the spat between France and Italy? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
On February 7, France announced its decision to recall its ambassador to Rome for consultations, denouncing a “grave situation” that “has no precedent since the end of the war.” This unprecedented move came a day after Italy’s deputy prime minister, and leader of the Five Star Movement, Luigi Di Maio flew to France and met representatives of the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Jackets) movement. In a letter to Le Monde, Di Maio justified the meeting saying: “I wanted to meet with representatives of the ‘Gilets Jaunes’ and the citizens’ initiative referendum group, because I do not believe that the future of European politics lies in the parties of the right or the left.”

The meeting, and ensuing French reaction, marks a peak in the escalation of rhetoric between French President Emmanuel Macron and the leaders of Italy’s ruling Five Star-League coalition over the past eight months.

Matteo Salvini, Italy’s other deputy prime minister and leader of the Lega party, has called Macron a “terrible president” and has aligned with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in calling the French president their main opponent in Europe, a title Macron has heartily embraced.

Italy’s leaders have also pointed to France’s colonial past to explain the migration crisis in the Mediterranean. Di Maio thus declared without a shred a nuance: “the EU should sanction France, and all countries like France, that impoverish Africa and make these people leave, because Africans should be in Africa, not at the bottom of the Mediterranean.”

Three centrifugal dynamics are at play in the current spat between France and Italy.

The first is Italian domestic politics. To a large extent, France is collateral damage in the Italian coalition’s internal strife. Embroiled in poor economic results and an inability to deliver on campaign promises, Italy’s leaders have found a convenient external enemy. The question becomes who best embodies the opposition to Macron?

Ever since taking office, Salvini’s League has shaped the government’s agenda despite technically being its minority partner. Owing to Salvini’s bombastic rhetoric, especially on immigration, the League has doubled its standing, soaring to 34 percent in EU elections polls, compared to 5 Star’s 17 percent. From labor reform to immigration, the League has imposed its far-right agenda and the inexperienced Di Maio is at pains to catch up. Di Maio’s show with the Gilets Jaunes was a somewhat desperate attempt to regain some momentum.

The second concerns the upcoming European elections in which rising opposition between liberal and populist forces is emerging as a key narrative. Such division is not necessarily negative: the European Union (EU) would benefit from a public sphere where political forces can transcend national divisions and push to the fore issues like immigration and eurozone reform that have too long been left to technocrats. As I’ve argued before, the debate pitting Macron against Orbán can, of course, be seen as evidence of further division in Europe, but it also brings a welcome “return of politics” to the Continent with debates rooted in values and competing visions of Europe.

Ever since the first direct European parliamentary elections in 1979, political parties across Europe have joined forces beyond national divisions: Macron himself allies with Italy’s former prime minister, Matteo Renzi, in Europe’s liberal coalition.

Di Maio’s embrace of the Gilets Jaunes, as the protestors appear about to form at least one list for the European elections on May 26, clearly stems for a desire to find new political partners in Europe. Di Maio’s outreach to Gilets Jaunes is, however, different from traditional coalition building due to the violent and insurrectional nature the movement has taken. Gilets Jaunes was initially regarded as a grassroots movement born spontaneously as a response to the green-friendly gas tax, but encompassing a wide array of demands from higher minimum wage to lower retirement age and a ban on outsourcing. In a country beset by lack of structural reforms, high unemployment, sluggish growth, and declining social mobility, Gilets Jaunes brought to the surface decades of pent-up public frustration at the French political establishment.

But since late 2018, the movement has taken an ugly turn, replete with violence, conspiracy theories, and anti-Semitism. Christophe Chalençon, the man Di Maio visited and one of the many figures who has emerged as a leader of the decentralized outburst, has notably called for the French army to take over and head a transitional government.

Gilet Jaunes leaders appear regularly on television denouncing Macron’s presidency as a “dictatorship” and making outlandish accusations such as blaming the French police for using Zyklon B—a poison infamous for its use by Nazis in their concentration camps—in tear gas or pointing to the terrorist attack that killed five people in Strasbourg over Christmas as a government-orchestrated false flag. Gilets Jaunes marches have led to outbursts of anti-Semitism, including journalists being called “Jewish whores” and swastika graffiti painted on walls. The rhetoric has unleashed death threats against members of Macron’s En Marche movement. The home of Richard Ferrand, the president of the French National Assembly, was the target of an arsonist’s attack.

The recurrence of these incidents and lack of condemnation by the movement’s leader leads one to draw the conclusion that such incidents are not a deviation, but rather the essence of the movement.

It is troubling that a democratically elected leader would want to lend support to such a movement.

The last force explaining the spat between France and Italy goes to deeper differences between the two countries that predate its current leaders. Italians are not wrong to complain about the lack of solidarity from major European capitals as they grapple with an immigration crisis. The Dublin asylum system gives responsibility to the first country receiving migrants. This has proved to be a burden for Mediterranean countries like Greece and Italy, especially as the 2015 crisis proved to be all of Europe’s concern.

The Schengen free circulation area is one of Europe’s greatest accomplishment, but unfortunately did not translate into sufficient pooling of resources by member states to ensure robust common borders. The frustration with Paris is particularly acute after France’s push for the ill-advised 2011 war in Libya fueled instability off Italy’s shores.

While populist leaders have hijacked the resentment created by these events to justify a nativist agenda, they have pointed to real failures of the EU. Pro-European leaders like Macron will have to strike a delicate balance between confronting populism and addressing these legitimate concerns with effective policies.

Benjamin Haddad is the director of the Future Europe Initiative at the Atlantic Council. He was the Washington representative of Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche movement in 2017. Follow him on Twitter @benjaminhaddad.

The post What’s driving the spat between France and Italy? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Lipner in Foreign Policy: Don’t Fear the Deep State. It’s the Shallow State That Will Destroy Us. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impact/in-the-news/lipner-in-foreign-policy-don-t-fear-the-deep-state-it-s-the-shallow-state-that-will-destroy-us-2/ Mon, 04 Feb 2019 15:12:33 +0000 http://migrate-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/lipner-in-foreign-policy-don-t-fear-the-deep-state-it-s-the-shallow-state-that-will-destroy-us/ The post Lipner in Foreign Policy: Don’t Fear the Deep State. It’s the Shallow State That Will Destroy Us. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Original Source

The post Lipner in Foreign Policy: Don’t Fear the Deep State. It’s the Shallow State That Will Destroy Us. appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The five historic shifts that will shape 2019 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/the-five-historic-shifts-that-will-shape-2019/ Sun, 13 Jan 2019 04:59:39 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/the-five-historic-shifts-that-will-shape-2019/ The treacherous year ahead that we confront – littered with political, economic and security risks – presents all the challenges of a double black diamond ski run.

The post The five historic shifts that will shape 2019 appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Fresh back in DC from a Colorado ski vacation, it strikes me that the treacherous year ahead that we confront – littered with political, economic and security risks – presents all the challenges of a double black diamond ski run.

Such slopes are signposted as such to warn skiers of an approaching terrain that is steeper, narrower, and bumpier than all but the most expert skiers can navigate, made even more unpredictable by frequent weather changes. Their bone-rattling obstacles are seen (trees) and unseen (snow-covered boulders).

That’s a good metaphor for a year during which volatility may be the only certainty for policy makers, business leaders and investors.  That may be good news for the ilk of hedge funds that are designed to capitalize from price swings, and thus this could be a bumper year for them. For most of the rest of us, expect months of handwringing and headaches.

The first few days of 2019 have already set the tone.

Stock markets have sunk and soared in the first days of trading, falling on growing fears of a global slowdown and the economic hit of US-Chinese trade tensions, only to rise again on good US job numbers or encouraging Trump tweets. Yet risks lurk behind every global corner.

Will the Trump growth story turn belly up in the face of domestic turbulence: the Mueller investigation, the threat of impeachment and Fed interest rate policy? Will the United Kingdom crash out of the European Union or remain through a “people’s vote”? Will the US-China trade fight end in a deal or escalate into something worse? Does US troop withdrawal from Syria signal a less predictable US ally? And so on.

The list of risks is a growing one. A good many experts have already provided their “top ten” for 2019. Rather than add my own, here instead are five historic inflection points to watch, a handful of history-bending shifts this column will track in the months ahead.

1. THE SHIFT FROM US-CHINESE ENGAGEMENT TO STRATEGIC COMPETITION

The most significant geopolitical shift of the past year has been the ending of an era of expanding U.S.-Chinese cooperation and its replacement by a period of competition. In 2019, this will play out in economic, military and technological domains.

Presidents Trump and Xi may well reach a trade truce by the end-March deadline, as it is in both sides’ interest. However, markets nevertheless will have to price in what Robert D. Kaplan in Foreign Policy calls a China-US cold war that “is becoming the negative organizing principle of geopolitics.”

On both sides, leaders are bracing for a generational contest that could shape our times, one that requires steady hands and sturdy alliances.

2. STRUCTURAL SHIFTS CLOUD THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Market jitters in the first few days of 2019 underscore increased worries about a global economic slowdown, but the larger risks are structural and long-lasting.

“The outlook for the global economy has darkened,” writes the World Bank in its newly released Global Economic Prospects. “Downside risks have become more acute and include the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and an escalation of trade disputes.

Yet most experts still believe 2019 will only produce the sort of mild, cyclical slowdown that the world occasionally requires. Inflation remains subdued, real interest rates remain low, and US equities are attractively priced.

Scarier are the structural shifts that lurk behind this correction, driven by technological change. Inequality will continue to grow, manufacturing employment will decline, and nationalist and populist politics could increase further.

Martin Wolf writes in the Financial Times of “an erosion of the liberal global economic order.”

3. THE FADING OF AMERICAN PRIMACY

The U.S. media is focused on President Trump’s myriad domestic political struggles.

Travel abroad, however, and the short-term question allies and adversaries ask is about Trump administration predictability. Their longer-term concern is that Trump may be a symptom and not the cause of a retreat from bearing the burden of global responsibility and cooperative leadership alongside allies.

It can be a confusing picture.

Mideast leaders privately say President Trump’s abrupt decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, without consulting them, shook their confidence in US predictability. At the same time, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Cairo heartened allies this week with his pledge that the US would not retreat until ISIS is defeated and Iran countered.

“We learned that when America retreats, chaos often follows. When we neglect our friends, resentment builds. And when we partner with enemies, they advance.”


In this 70th anniversary year of NATO, the world’s most successful and enduring alliance, will the US take actions around the world to build upon the alliances that shaped the post-World War II global system. Or will they erode—along with US primacy?

4. EUROPE’S DECISIVE YEAR

The coming year will underscore the limits of European integration.

A combination of European Union parliamentary elections in May, the weakening of French and German centrist leaders, and the continued rise of a European nationalist right will bring what Fredrik Erixon in the Spectator calls “the year of peak federalism. An era of never closer union may be about to begin.”

Europe’s populists are gaining traction as a lasting force in European politics. They are not a coherent force, but as they gain more power they are coalescing in a more common purpose that doesn’t oppose EU membership but seeks more national autonomy.

The Brexit drama will also play out this year. The possibilities range from the economic shock of a no deal exit to a “people’s vote” to remain, with generational consequences.

5. ERODING RULES AND RISING STRONGMEN

This will be a year to watch just how far strongmen dare to extend their gains, given the erosion of global rules to constrain them and the retreat of the world’s policeman in Washington that long predates Trump.

Watch Mr. Putin’s actions in Ukraine, in the wake of Russian incursions in the Sea of Azov, and amid falling popularity at home, as Kiev faces crucial presidential elections in March. Also track Chinese President Xi Jinping as he tackles an economic slowdown with a mixture of economic and nationalist stimulus.

“The wind is in the sails of strongmen worldwide,” writes Robert Malley, the President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, in a Foreign Policy review of 2019 trouble spots.

The greatest risk of 2019 might be that of strongmen miscalculating as they test limits.

Back in Colorado a few days ago, our ten-year-old daughter Johanna exulted at the bottom of a mogul-strewn black diamond run. “That was so empowering!” she said, speaking to a camera. “My ankles are killing me, but it was worth it.”

Double-black diamond years can shape history, for better or worse.
Set your bindings to expert – and Happy New Year!

This article originally appeared on CNBC.com.

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe. Subscribe to his weekly InflectionPoints newsletter.

The post The five historic shifts that will shape 2019 appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Rising Populism and the Future of Europe https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/event-recap/rising-populism-and-the-future-of-europe-2/ Fri, 14 Dec 2018 00:14:56 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/rising-populism-and-the-future-of-europe-2/ On Thursday, December 13th, the Atlantic Council’s Global Business and Economics Program and the Embassy of Spain co-hosted an event on rising populism in Europe, celebrating the occasion of the 40th anniversary of Spain’s pluralistic constitution.

The post Rising Populism and the Future of Europe appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>

On Thursday, December 13th, the Atlantic Council’s Global Business and Economics Program and the Embassy of Spain co-hosted an event on rising populism in Europe, celebrating the occasion of the 40th anniversary of Spain’s pluralistic constitution.

The event discussed how policymakers can address root causes of populism, drawing lessons from Spain’s experience. It featured experts Professor Argelia Queralt of Barcelona University and Douglas Rediker, Founding Partner and Chairman of International Capital Strategies and Nonresident Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, with introductory remarks from His Excellency Santiago Cabanas Ansonera, Ambassador of Spain to the United States.

Ambassador Ansonera acknowledged that rising populism is an unquestionable reality in Europe, and a pressing problem for the liberal and democratic order built after the second World War. In the Spanish context, populism has manifested itself under the form of radical nationalism in Catalonia that has provoked an institutional crisis to Spanish democracy. Professor Argelia Queralt of Barcelona University, a legal scholar and a close observer of populist and separatist movements in Europe outlined the challenges presented by populist movements and the legal implications of the Catalan secessionist movement. Doug Rediker then discussed feasible political solutions to address movements that draw on populist themes, be it whether secessionist or anti-establishment. A Q&A session with the audience followed.

The post Rising Populism and the Future of Europe appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Right-Wing party gains ground in Spain https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/right-wing-party-gains-ground-in-spain/ Thu, 06 Dec 2018 16:47:05 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/right-wing-party-gains-ground-in-spain/ The December 2 regional election in Andalusia ended the Spanish anomaly. As the results poured in, heads turned in Europe as Vox, a populist right-wing party, won 11 percent of the vote and twelve seats in the Andalusian parliament.

The post Right-Wing party gains ground in Spain appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
For much of the past decade, Spain has been an exception to the Europe-wide electoral rise of populist right-wing parties. The December 2 regional election in Andalusia ended the Spanish anomaly. As the results poured in, heads turned in Europe as Vox, a populist right-wing party, won 11 percent of the vote and twelve seats in the Andalusian parliament. Most polls in the lead-up to the vote had the party around the 5 percent mark.

Populism is nothing new in Spanish politics. In recent years, left-wing Podemos has successfully employed a brand of populism that appealed to large portions of the electorate in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The conservative platform, on the other hand, was dominated in the 2008 and 2011 elections by the center-right People’s Party (PP).

Why now?

There are several theories why the populist right has been unable to gain a foothold in Spain until now.

Immigration has not been particularly salient issue in Spain in the post-Franco era, even as large waves of migrants settled in the country during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Spain did not shoulder as great of a burden during the refugee crisis as other Western European countries—Italy, Germany, and Sweden—did, while the post-communism migration patterns of the early 1990s left Spain largely untouched. In Italy, Germany, and Sweden, the populist right wing has experienced sharp gains since the migrant crisis in 2015, as immigration dominated domestic headlines.

This is beginning to change in Spain, particularly in Andalusia. Around 50,000 migrants have moved to Spain so far in 2018. Many of them have crossed the Mediterranean Sea into Spain’s southernmost region.

The results of the election indicate that Vox’s anti-immigration and anti-Islam stance resonated with a segment of the electorate. On Twitter, the party calls for a “reconquest” evoking strong historical imagery of the Spanish Reconquista.

Another theory is that, similar to Germany, Spain’s history with the far-right Franco dictatorship, acted as an effective bulwark against modern day iterations of right-wing populism. Vox has invoked comparisons to Franco’s Spain, perhaps most notably in its approach to the Catalonia question, where Vox has gone above and beyond Spain’s mainstream parties in condemning Catalonia’s independence efforts. The party rejects Spain’s decentralized political system and above all, Catalonian autonomy. It has gone as far as proposing  the suspension of the European freedom of movement Schengen Agreement while Catalan independence leaders are still at-large and hide in other European countries. It has also harshly criticized the way the Spanish government and center-right PP have handled the Catalonia question. Not unrelated to the Catalonia question is the controversy surrounding Spain’s exhumation of the remains of Francisco Franco earlier this year, which Vox politicized.

Shifting dynamics

Vox shares many ideological and rhetorical similarities with other populist right-wing parties in Europe. It is staunchly nationalist, anti-immigrant, an advocate of traditional gender roles and conservative values, quick to blame the problems in Andalusia and Spain on corrupt leftist politicians, and claims to be the voice of the people.

Nevertheless, Vox in Andalusia remains somewhat unique.  The mainstream center-right PP has not distanced itself from Vox (and the center-right Citizens Party, or Cs, only did so publicly after the election result). Instead the PP has hinted at the idea of a possible coalition. This represents a stark contrast from the way the political mainstream received the Sweden Democrats in Sweden and the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany following their electoral successes. The two were ostracized and isolated, and to this day are not considered viable coalition partners in their respective countries.

Andalusia, Spain’s most populous region, has traditionally been a socialist stronghold. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) suffered major losses on December 2, however, losing fourteen seats. Podemos and the PP also performed poorly, losing three and seven seats, respectively. These results will make coalition building difficult for both the right and the left and could possibly leave Vox as the kingmaker, which could explain the overtures made to it by the mainstream center-right.

Looking ahead to 2019

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had reportedly considered holding snap elections early in 2019.  Given the losses incurred by his party, PSOE, in Andalusia and the emergence of a viable populist right-wing actor, however, he may reevaluate his strategy.

Vox will look to carry its momentum into next year’s European parliamentary elections. If elected to the European Parliament, Vox would likely be faced with a choice of three political groups within the European Parliament: either Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD), Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), or European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Currently, Europe’s populist right-wing parties are split between the three groupings, though the AfD’s Jörg Meuthen has expressed interest in consolidating the party family. Brexit could be the catalyst for a reworking or consolidation of the groups, as British members of the European Parliament (MEPs), who will depart in June 2019, form a sizeable part of both the EFDD (the United Kingdom Independence Party) and ECR (the United Kingdom Conservative Party), with UKIP politician Nigel Farage serving as the chairman of the EFDD.

As it stands, EFDD is home to the AfD and Italy’s Five Star Movement, while the ECR is made up in part of the Sweden Democrats, the Danish People’s Party, and Poland’s Law and Justice party. France’s National Rally (formerly National Front), Austria’s Freedom Party, and Geert Wilder’s Freedom Party in the Netherlands are notable members of ENF.

The European Parliament elections could come at an opportune time for the populist right-wing parties across Europe. Social Democratic parties are faltering across the Continent, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel—the de facto leaders of the Continent—are facing domestic challenges that could remain unsolved well into 2019, and the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) is dealing with public backlash following the closing of the Central European University in Budapest by EPP ally Viktor Orbán in Hungary. Polling numbers indicate that a populist right-wing political group could become the third strongest force in the European Parliament.

Vox is part of the growing electoral viability of populist right-wing parties throughout Europe. So long as immigration issues remain salient and the Catalonia question lingers, Vox will become an increasingly influential player in Spain, with the potential to play a role in internal populist right-wing European Parliament politics. The reaction to Vox’s arrival—among both the mainstream parties of Spain and the greater populist movement in Europe—will determine whether this political newcomer is a temporary blip or a new political force.

Alex Baker is an intern at the Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative. Follow him on Twitter @alexpieterbaker.

The post Right-Wing party gains ground in Spain appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The MADCOM future https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-madcom-future/ Tue, 26 Sep 2017 17:28:04 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/the-madcom-future/ Emerging artificial intelligence (AI) tools will provide propagandists radically enhanced capabilities to manipulate human minds. Human cognition is a complex system, and AI tools are very good at decoding complex systems. Interactions on social media, browsing the Internet, and even grocery shopping provide thousands of data points from which technologists can build psychological profiles on nearly […]

The post The MADCOM future appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
DOWNLOAD PDF (ENGLISH)

Emerging artificial intelligence (AI) tools will provide propagandists radically enhanced capabilities to manipulate human minds. Human cognition is a complex system, and AI tools are very good at decoding complex systems. Interactions on social media, browsing the Internet, and even grocery shopping provide thousands of data points from which technologists can build psychological profiles on nearly every citizen. When provided rich databases of information about us, machines will know our personalities, wants, needs, annoyances, and fears better than we know them ourselves. Over the next few years, MADCOMs—the integration of AI systems into machine-driven communications tools for use in computational propaganda—will gain enhanced ability to influence people, tailoring persuasive, distracting, or intimidating messaging toward individuals based on their unique personalities and backgrounds, a form of highly personalized propaganda.

The difficult truth is humans simply cannot compete with MADCOMs, at least not alone. On the digital networks of the next decade, only humans teamed with AI machines can compete with AI machines. Much like the cybersecurity struggle that dominates the early twenty-first century, the Internet will be the battleground for a continual cycle of one-upmanship as technologists improve adversary-MADCOM detection tools, and as propagandists improve MADCOMs to avoid detection. An ideal future, in which MADCOMs are used for the benefit of humanity and not to its detriment, requires the effort of all levels of society, from the international system down to individuals.

The post The MADCOM future appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Will France stem the tide of populism? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/event-recap/will-france-stem-the-tide-of-populism/ Fri, 16 Dec 2016 20:36:56 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/will-france-stem-the-tide-of-populism/ As France looks ahead to its 2017 presidential elections, one of many elections throughout Europe next year, the electorate’s decision will set the tone for the future of Europe, either encouraging or halting the spread of populism throughout the transatlantic community, said an expert on French public policy. In introductory remarks at an event at […]

The post Will France stem the tide of populism? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
As France looks ahead to its 2017 presidential elections, one of many elections throughout Europe next year, the electorate’s decision will set the tone for the future of Europe, either encouraging or halting the spread of populism throughout the transatlantic community, said an expert on French public policy.

In introductory remarks at an event at the Atlantic Council on December 13, Dominique Moïsi, a senior counsellor at the Institut Montaigne, said: “The importance of France today can be summarized in one formula: the French… can demonstrate that the victory of populism is not irresistible. That somewhere you can say no to the temptation of populism.” Ultimately, “France will assume responsibility for the liberal democratic order,” he added.

“On the heels of a wave of electoral shocks across the transatlantic community,” such as the vote in favor of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union and Donald Trump’s election as the next president of the United States, the wave of elections in Europe presents a “critical juncture,” said Damon Wilson, executive vice president of programs and strategy at the Atlantic Council.

Click here to read the rest of the article in the New Atlanticist. 

The post Will France stem the tide of populism? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Defense advice For President-elect Trump https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/defense-industrialist/defense-advice-for-president-elect-trump/ Fri, 11 Nov 2016 13:29:25 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/defense-advice-for-president-elect-trump/ Focus on national productivity growth to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. The US presidential election that just ended was driven by identity politics—affinity by race, class, gender, etc.— rather than ideological competition or policy differences. As a result, resolution of the political contest will not unto itself unlock the calcified debate over fiscal policy that has […]

The post Defense advice For President-elect Trump appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
Focus on national productivity growth to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio.

The US presidential election that just ended was driven by identity politics—affinity by race, class, gender, etc.— rather than ideological competition or policy differences. As a result, resolution of the political contest will not unto itself unlock the calcified debate over fiscal policy that has left the nation’s military posture in a state of unsettled suspense. Although President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to “repeal the defense sequester,” the torrent of identity politics on which he rides into office also will generate cross-currents affecting taxes and domestic spending priorities that are arguably more important to his constituency.

Reflecting the dynamic of identity politics, the presidential contest was notably bereft of pronounced policy prescriptions. In no realm was this more true than national security, which, thank goodness, confounds simplistic expressions of identity. There’s no particular Hispanic or female take on the threat from North Korea, for instance, any more than there is a distinctly working-class or immigrant stand on acquisition policy, ballistic missile defense, or any of the other hard problems of securing the nation.

For the team taking office in January, the low salience of national security policy on the campaign trail will prove both a blessing and a curse. It will afford the new president wide latitude to advance policies less encumbered by campaign promises. However, the paucity of policy animating voters also weakens the mandate for decisive, new directions on national security. Plus, although Congress will be more accommodating to Trump than the obstructionists with whom President Obama has had to contend, it will be somewhat more narrowly divided and retains the bloc of fiscal conservatives who hold the balance of power over ways and means.

Consequently, it cannot be presumed that the election has settled the fiscal policy issue on which the Pentagon is stuck. Moreover, the president-elect’s policy mandate on national security is too weak and, frankly, subordinate to his domestic priorities to expect he simply can overwhelm congressional resistance to deficit spending. Therefore, breaking the grip of deadlock over defense spending still will require a reframing of the issue that enables a political resolution. It’s the most important thing the new president can do for national security in his first 100 days.

Recall that the Budget Control Act of 2011 is the current frame of the debate over fiscal policy. In that frame, the sole measure of fiscal merit concerns discretionary spending, which is capped at levels requiring $1 trillion of deficit reduction allocated evenly between “defense” and “non-defense” programs through 2021. For the Defense Department, adhering to the Budget Control Act caps would reduce its base budget from 2018 to 2021 by $113 billion below its Future Years Defense Program (FYDP). Although Congress has enacted partial relief from the caps in every year since 2013, this continuing dispute over fiscal policy leaves the key features of our military posture—readiness, force structure, modernization—on tenterhooks.

More maddeningly still, this uncertainty persists despite a nearly bipartisan consensus that defense spending should track nearer the FYDP than the Budget Control Act caps. What is stalling resolution, ironically enough, is not competing ideas about defense but Republicans’ resistance to raising non-defense spending in equal measure, as required by the Budget Control Act.

To unlock this debate over fiscal policy and defense spending, the new administration first should refocus the measure of fiscal responsibility back to the original impetus for the Budget Control Act, which concerned debt as a proportion of the economy. It should do this not because the outlook for the trend of debt-to-GDP is particularly salutary: It stands at about 75 percent today and is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to continue growing by about 1 percent a year into the future. However, what this frame of the debate can do is to redirect attention from discretionary spending, the very weakest lever on debt-to-GDP, and back onto factors of the equation that truly matter to fiscal solvency.

In particular, overwhelming all other factors affecting debt-to-GDP is the rate of productivity growth in the economy. The nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, for instance, estimates that sustaining a 0.5 percent higher rate of productivity growth over the next thirty years would reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio by 30 percent. By comparison, the $113 billion at stake in the imposition of the Budget Control Act caps on defense spending would make a difference of only one half of 1 percent of the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2021.

The president-elect’s campaign proposals that will enjoy an identity-politics tailwind—“transform crumbling infrastructure,” “reduce taxes across-the-board,” “invest $20 billion in school choice” and the such—could be packaged into a productivity-growth initiative that gives supporters of the Budget Control Act an object of non-defense spending that substantively serves the cause of reducing the drag of debt on the economy. In turn, a way would be cleared within the frame of the Budget Control Act to add the roughly $30 billion a year above its caps that are needed to support the existing military posture.

Steven Grundman is the Lund Fellow at the Atlantic Council. This essay first appeared on November 10, 2016 in Aviation Week & Space Technology.

The post Defense advice For President-elect Trump appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
The illiberal turn: Reasserting democratic values in Central and Eastern Europe https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/event-recap/the-illiberal-turn-reasserting-democratic-values-in-central-and-eastern-europe-2/ Thu, 13 Oct 2016 15:01:01 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/the-illiberal-turn-reasserting-democratic-values-in-central-and-eastern-europe-2/ On October 13, 2016, the Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative and Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center hosted a public conference “The Illiberal Turn?: Reasserting Democratic Values in Central and Eastern Europe.” This conference was organized in partnership with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), the International Republican Institute (IRI), and the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), […]

The post The illiberal turn: Reasserting democratic values in Central and Eastern Europe appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
On October 13, 2016, the Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative and Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center hosted a public conference “The Illiberal Turn?: Reasserting Democratic Values in Central and Eastern Europe.” This conference was organized in partnership with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), the International Republican Institute (IRI), and the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), and in cooperation with the National Democratic Institute (NDI). This event addressed the political, economic, and social currents that challenge the region’s path toward greater cooperation, prosperity, and freedom.

Mr. Damon Wilson, executive vice president of programs and strategy at the Atlantic Council introduced the Hon. Thomas Melia, assistant administrator of Europe and Eurasia at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Wilson emphasized that if the core of the transatlantic community falters in its commitment to democracy and fragmentation ensues, Europe’s periphery and the European Union’s newest members will experience an outsized impact. Assistant Administer Melia discussed the strategic importance of democracy in Central and Eastern Europe in ensuring the broader strength and stability of the continent. He also asserted that the US government must allocate the necessary resources to carry out its policy intentions in the region.

Dr. Alina Polyakova, deputy director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, moderated a conversation on “Democratic Backsliding? The State of Democracy in the Region” with Dr. Maria Stephan, senior policy fellow at the United States Institute for Peace; Dr. Jeffrey Gedmin, nonresident senior fellow of the Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative; Mr. Brian Whitmore, author of the Power Vertical from RFE/RL; and Dr. Ivan Stefanec, member of the European Parliament from Slovakia. This panel considered the indicators of a potential illiberal turn emerging in countries thought to be on a path to democracy, and proposed strategies to counter illiberal developments in the region.

Mr. Francisak Viachorka, Vaclav Havel journalism fellow of RFE/RL, moderated a conversation on “The Illiberal Turn and Media Freedom” with Ms. Jill Dougherty, former foreign affairs correspondent for CNN; Mr. Aleksander Dardeli, vice president of IREX; and Ms. Zselyke Csaky, senior researcher for nations in transit at the Freedom House. The panelists discussed the importance of reliable media sources and the challenge of Russia’s efforts to spread a narrative of perceived failures by Western democracy. The discussants also analyzed the role of the country on the receiving end of propaganda and how critical information consummation skills can help promote the protection of the freedom of the press.

Mr. Marc Schleifer, regional director for Europe, Eurasia and South Asia at CIPE, moderated a conversation on “Managing Economic Crises and Combating Corruption: The Role of the Business Community” with Mr. András Lőke, president of Transparency International Hungary and founder and editor-in-chief of Ittlakunk.hu, Ms. Heather Conley, senior vice president for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Mr. Hans Timmer, chief economist for Europe and Central Asia at the World Bank, and Ms. Sally Painter, senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and co-founder and COO of Blue Star Strategies. This panel focused on the economic causes and consequences of democratic backsliding in the region as well as the potential cures for corruption and illiberal activity. According to the panelists, an absence of a clear, positive vision for capitalizing on the opportunities of the great disruption as well as minimizing its challenges could provoke those left behind to support an illiberal, fear-driven agenda, rather than open, democratic ideals.

Ms. Miriam Lexmann, director of the EU office of IRI, moderated a discussion on “Strengthening Pro-Democracy Forces: How Should the Transatlantic Community Respond?” with Mr. Carl Gershman, president of NDI, Ambassador Kurt Volker, executive director of the McCain Institute for International Leadership, and Ms. Nadezhda Mouzykina, senior program manager for Central & Eastern Europe at NDI. This panel sought to forge a strategic response by the transatlantic community for the aforementioned issues, and explored approaches to enable constructive US and transatlantic engagement in the region by political leaders as well as civil society members and moderate intellectuals.

Ambassador Mark Green, president of IRI, closed the conference, assessing the transatlantic community’s capacity to counter the political, social, and economic trends pointing Central and Eastern European democracies toward an illiberal turn. He highlighted that the new generation of young, cooperative party representatives across the political spectrum in the region embody a strong force for open, inclusive democracy in the face of internal challenges that are exploited by external forces. Ambassador Green encouraged the audience to consider what they can do “as friends of Europe and friends of democracy… to reach out and magnify these cross-party friendships…to reinforce these bonds in the face of highly-charged times.”

Ahead of this conference, the Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative and Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center held on September 26, 2016 a private discussion on the current situation in Central and Eastern Europewith Mr. Jan Hamáček, speaker of the chamber of deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic; Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Parliament of the Czech Republic; and Ambassador Michael Žantovský, executive director of the Václav Havel Library.

The post The illiberal turn: Reasserting democratic values in Central and Eastern Europe appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
What’s left of Europe if the far right has its way? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/what-s-left-of-europe-if-the-far-right-has-its-way/ Tue, 22 Mar 2016 15:25:06 +0000 http://live-atlanticcouncil-wr.pantheonsite.io/what-s-left-of-europe-if-the-far-right-has-its-way/ Far-right parties are on the rise in Europe, particularly in the post-soviet space. The 2008 financial crisis provided these parties with an electoral boost, and the refugee crisis threatening the continent has inflamed nationalist and xenophobic populism. In this new issue brief, “What’s Left of Europe if the Far Right Has Its Way?”, Dr. Alina […]

The post What’s left of Europe if the far right has its way? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>
DOWNLOAD PDF

Far-right parties are on the rise in Europe, particularly in the post-soviet space. The 2008 financial crisis provided these parties with an electoral boost, and the refugee crisis threatening the continent has inflamed nationalist and xenophobic populism. In this new issue brief, “What’s Left of Europe if the Far Right Has Its Way?”, Dr. Alina Polyakova, Deputy Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, and Dr. Anton Shekhovtsov, a visiting fellow at the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna, Austria, explore the realities and repercussions of the rise of far-right parties in Eastern Europe.

The rise of far-right parties in Central and Eastern Europe poses a real threat to those nascent democracies. As Dr. Polyakova and Dr. Shekhovtsov explain, in post-soviet countries, where democratic values are less entrenched, far-right parties “tend to be more anti-democratic and extremist than their counterparts in Western Europe.”

Dr. Polyakova and Dr. Shekhovtsov argue in spite of Europe’s ongoing crisis of illiberal politics, the post-socialist transformation of Europe can still be saved. Tracking the rise of far-right political parties in Eastern Europe’s post-socialist space, Dr. Polyakova and Mr. Shekhovtsov identify not only the issues fanning the rise of the far-right, but also strategies adopted by centrist parties that either aid or hinder the furthering of far-right politics. This issue brief calls for center-right and center-left European parties to defend their democratic ideals and offers clear options to curtail the rise of the far-right in Central and Eastern Europe.

The post What’s left of Europe if the far right has its way? appeared first on Atlantic Council.

]]>